Australian Open 2022 Final: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev

Nadal or Med?


  • Total voters
    261
  • Poll closed .

weakera

G.O.A.T.
I honestly don't feel confident. Medvedev looks like he's in great form. Some keys for Nadal, keep serving gutsy and big on 2nd serves (gotta just take your chances), use the slice and don't feed pace unless you're in position to end the point, and come to the net. Opposite strategy of running Berrettini around and bombing him into the corner on backhand side.

I will predict Nadal in 5, because I think the moment can hopefully power him through. But no result would really surprise me.
 

El_Yotamo

Hall of Fame
Rafa needs to break out the S&V, and go high risk on the serves. If he sticks to trying to play the way he played Matteo today he's gonna get burned. However, I believe he's smarter than that. Med is gonna serve huge as well, so Rafa's returns need to be sharp, especially in the early stages of sets. This is one of those matches where Nadal needs to break thrice and just try and keep rolling on serve. Will he do that 3 sets in a row? Almost certainly no. But can he do it 3 out of 5 sets? Hopefully, in fact I believe he can
 
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Yugram

Legend
Rafa needs to break out the S&V, and go high risk on the serves. If he sticks to trying to play the way he played Matteo today he's gonna get burned. However, I believe he's smarter than that. Med is gonna serve huge as well, so Rafa's returns need to be sharp, especially in the early stages of sets
Who you’ve got winning?
 

ACE of Hearts

Bionic Poster
I honestly don't feel confident. Medvedev looks like he's in great form. Some keys for Nadal, keep serving gutsy and big on 2nd serves (gotta just take your chances), use the slice and don't feed pace unless you're in position to end the point, and come to the net. Opposite strategy of running Berrettini around and bombing him into the corner on backhand side.

I will predict Nadal in 5, because I think the moment can hopefully power him through. But no result would really surprise me.
Nadal has not shot if he doesn’t serve well. I think he has to be aggressive as well. He will be on the defensive side. Don’t know if that’s a great tactical idea.
 

aldeayeah

G.O.A.T.
Will it be outdoor ? What's the forecast ?
Pretty much perfect weather. Warm but not too hot, breezy but not windy. High humidity though.


This site has a cloudier prediction, still low rain %

 

weakera

G.O.A.T.
Nadal has not shot if he doesn’t serve well. I think he has to be aggressive as well. He will be on the defensive side. Don’t know if that’s a great tactical idea.
In this tournament, Nadal has faced 21 break points and been broken 5 times.
Medvedev has faced 33 break points and been broken 7 times.
 

Checkmate

Legend
I expect the same outcome. Rafa can't hit through him and will get tired after two sets. I see 2019 like match.
Also, the match up contrast.

Rafa played a player who couldn't hit a backhand.

Now he would face an opponent who wouldn't miss a backhand.

If rafa comes Down the Line-zoning ready, then it could all go his way.
 

weakera

G.O.A.T.
Mannarino was great prep for Medvedev in theory. Mannarino was painting in that first set and Nadal survived by killing pace with his slices, it's hard to send back a low, flat ball off of a slice. Needs to break that out in the final which of course is counter intuitive to his typical topspin strategy.
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Eh, it’s a bit of a lose lose situation for Djoko fans. Either he loses the #1 spot or gets surpassed in the slam race, so there’s little to be scared about. They will just take the popcorn and enjoy the show.
No big deal if he loses #1 spot. He owns the record already. And there is no threat to that.
 

lud

Hall of Fame
It's kind of unbelievable.. there is Djokovic out, and immediately comes in Nadal trying to reach the 21st title... Which other sport is so competitive between 3 people over such a time? I really can't believe it.
Messi vs CR7
 

NeutralFan

Legend
Also, the match up contrast.

Rafa played a player who couldn't hit a backhand.

Now he would face an opponent who wouldn't miss a backhand.

If rafa comes Down the Line-zoning ready, then it could all go his way.
I don't think Rafa can redline like FAA , it's never his game. Med's passing shot has improved so Serve and volley would be suicidal.
 

ForehandCross

G.O.A.T.
Who you think is the favourite?
50-50.

People will go by level, but I see a huge pattern developing against Medvedev. He goes deep in every service game and Felix and Stef many times just shut him off easily many times with inspired net play.

And Nadal is better than either can hope to be in doing that.

Nadal is playing highly aggressive and his heaviness really hurts Med.

However the match will actually depend on Medvedev's serve.

Since he gets in every return game, he also throws some service games away after putting in successful / unsuccessful effort. They are few in number, but are pattern wise regular.

If he can hold Nadal off on those points, he wins. If he can't he loses.
 

pepka

Professional
Rafa wins, he gets to be a leader with 21. Med wins, he gets the no.1 spot. Either way... ***** loses :happydevil: :cool:
 

El_Yotamo

Hall of Fame
Mannarino was great prep for Medvedev in theory. Mannarino was painting in that first set and Nadal survived by killing pace with his slices, it's hard to send back a low, flat ball off of a slice. Needs to break that out in the final which of course is counter intuitive to his typical topspin strategy.
Yes, but that won't be enough. Needs to serve huge and pressure Medvedev on the return
 

Nadal_King

Hall of Fame
Expecting a really Epic Match, this is a Big 3 player on his worst Slam atleast in a final and a new grand slam champion. It promises to be an Epic way bigger than Uso 2019 I feel. I don't see Rafa winning it easy although in a scenario Medvedev can do that but with Rafa you would think he will give his life on court to get a second Ao title
 

weakera

G.O.A.T.
Yes, but that won't be enough. Needs to serve huge and pressure Medvedev on the return
Biggest key to the match is Rafa's serve. He will have break chances against Medvedev simply because he's Rafa, the greatest returner in history. But can he limit chances for Medvedev like he did in the beginning and end of the QF/SF when he smothered Shapo and Bert?
 

Checkmate

Legend
I don't think Rafa can redline like FAA , it's never his game. Med's passing shot has improved so Serve and volley would be suicidal.

Rafa did unleash DTL forehand quite a few times last clay season, especially against Zverev and Djokovic in Rome and got big succ
 

Yugram

Legend
50-50.

People will go by level, but I see a huge pattern developing against Medvedev. He goes deep in every service game and Felix and Stef many times just shut him off easily many times with inspired net play.

And Nadal is better than either can hope to be in doing that.

Nadal is playing highly aggressive and his heaviness really hurts Med.

However the match will actually depend on Medvedev's serve.

Since he gets in every return game, he also throws some service games away after putting in successful / unsuccessful effort. They are few in number, but are pattern wise regular.

If he can hold Nadal off on those points, he wins. If he can't he loses.
I think Medvedev will need to pull out another 0-2 comeback in order to win. Not much he can do while Nadal will blitzkrieg in first 2 sets.
 

El_Yotamo

Hall of Fame
Biggest key to the match is Rafa's serve. He will have break chances against Medvedev simply because he's Rafa, the greatest returner in history. But can he limit chances for Medvedev like he did in the beginning and end of the QF/SF when he smothered Shapo and Bert?
Here's to hoping he does. And in doing so let's also hope he doesn't have too big a slump midmatch
 
I honestly don't believe this a good matchup for Rafa.
Rafa loves to go his forehand to his opponents backhand.
This means "strength to strength" against Med.
I don't think Rafa (on this fast a court) will be able to break Med's backhand down.
Plus, I think Med will have an easier time holding his serve.
 

wang07

Semi-Pro
Med in 4. Wouldn't be shocked if it's in straights and a massive reality check for Nadal, just like 3 years ago. For a somewhat well playing Nadal this should've been a free pass to the final and yet he barely made it. He just doesn't have it on HC anymore to take it to the best of the best, and it will show on Sunday. Medvedev to be crowned as a fully deserved #1.
 

ForehandCross

G.O.A.T.
I think Medvedev will need to pull out another 0-2 comeback in order to win. Not much he can do while Nadal will blitzkrieg in first 2 sets.
Let's see what happens. It really is crucial for Med to win one of the first two sets though!

May the best man win!!
 

aman92

Legend
I honestly don't believe this a good matchup for Rafa.
Rafa loves to go his forehand to his opponents backhand.
This means "strength to strength" against Med.
I don't think Rafa (on this fast a court) will be able to break Med's backhand down.
Plus, I think Med will have an easier time holding his serve.
Nadal owns the head to head though
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
Rooting for Rafa of course and predicting he will prevail but honestly it could go either way. Will Medvedev for the second Grand Slam in a row deny one of the big 3 their 21st Grand Slam? Or will Rafa be the first to reach #21? I sure hope for the latter but they are both playing great. Rafa and Daniil are the two best problem solvers but Rafa of course has way more experience at finals.

Medvedev imo has the best player in the world over the past 5-6 months (Djokovic fans, relax, this is my opinion: Daniil has simply played better than Novak since Wimbledon 2021) and he will become the #1 player in the rankings if he wins the final, but Rafa has a 20-8 record in Grand Slam finals and has played such a great tournament, playing his very best level at his semi.

Put simply: I want Rafa to win but so long as he makes a valiant effort and does his very best I am happy!
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
It will be very physical for Rafa. That being said, Nadal usually has an upper hand in most of their baseline rallies, even indoors. If he can get a lot of Med's serves back in play, he can put him under a lot of pressure early on.
Nadal tends to struggle in long matches these days, he'll need a strong start so that he can conserve energy potentially later on. Med should make a lot of returns and force him to play so I do think once the third and fourth sets roll around Nadal is going to find it hard to maintain top level intensity. Depends how well Med serves too. We'll see...I do think Med is the favourite on form but Nadal has a champion mentality that Medvedev has only shown glimpses of. Even now Nadal can flip that switch in terms of shotmaking on key points so he'll always be dangerous.
 
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