Australian Open 2022 Final: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev

[Backspin1183]

Med in 3, super easy barely an inconvenience

Oh really?

 

[Backspin1183]

I don't want to hear later about Nadals age, "this was inevitable etc". I'm calling right now Nadal will get exposed on Sunday, Ive been saying it all week if it came to this match. Nadal has no chance. Medvedev ain't playing no games with this form he is in and he is on a different level than anyone rafa played this tournament who was Dying already in the quarters after 3 and a half sets.

Hear it now. Nadal is 35 and half years old.

 

[Deleted member 788697]

I may be the only person aware of this, Nadal chooses to move cautiously these days, but he'll have no reason to move cautiously in a slam final..... because no more tennis after the slam final, so he'll treat it the way he did 2020 RG Final when Djokovic was surprised by Nadal's athleticism.

 

[Mustard]

C'mon Rafa.

 

[mike danny]

Can't imagine how Rafa fans feel. That's exactly how I felt before AO 2017 F, Wimb 2017 F and AO 2018 F.

 

[Deleted member 788697]

Can't imagine how Rafa fans feel. That's exactly how I fel before AO 2017 F, Wimb 2017 F and AO 2018 F.

Nadal fans have very little in common with each other, so you can't read our minds.
Michael Nadal will probably feel like he's ok with Medvedev winning, because he's a bandwagoner for example.

 

[Backspin1183]

Nadal fans have very little in common with each other, so you can't read our minds.

True. All I know is you like NADAL A LOT.

 

[zvelf]

Nadal in 3 sets.
H2H 3-1 is clear.

We already found out, its in their H2H.

There is a big problem with this logic. Medvedev has only gotten better since his losses to Nadal. Nadal is now older and slower. Medvedev is in his prime. Nadal has had an easy draw and has still dropped 4 sets. Both Shapovalov and Berrettini played about half the level of their best tennis. Medvedev has dropped 5 sets but he had a much tougher draw with Kyrgios, serve-and-volley Cressy, Auger-Aliassime playing at his peak, and a red-hot Tsitsipas (at least for the first 3 sets), and Tsitsipas took out Nadal last time. Nadal certainly can win if he's playing his best and Medvedev is not, but given their form in this tournament, Meddy looks not just better but looking like the best hard-court tennis player on the planet right now.

Well reading the comments here I hope if by chance Rafa wins all these people don't start saying weak era etc these next gen just are useless. If you think Medvedev is good before match then admit Rafa win is extraordinary as for me it will be since I also expect Medvedev to win and if Rafa wins it's as big maybe as beating a prime djokovic on Hardcourt

This board way underrates Next Gen but let's not get carried away here. Medvedev is not as good as perhaps the best hard-court player ever.

 

[dapchai]

I may be the only person aware of this, Nadal chooses to move cautiously these days, but he'll have no reason to move cautiously in a slam final..... because no more tennis after the slam final, so he'll treat it the way he did 2020 RG Final when Djokovic was surprised by Nadal's athleticism.

You remind me this is Rafa's very first slam final after his 20th. But that doesn't mean he won't move cautiously this Sunday...

 

[Nadal_King]

There is a big problem with this logic. Medvedev has only gotten better since his losses to Nadal. Nadal is now older and slower. Medvedev is in his prime. Nadal has had an easy draw and has still dropped 4 sets. Both Shapovalov and Berrettini played about half the level of their best tennis. Medvedev has dropped 5 sets but he had a much tougher draw with Kyrgios, serve-and-volley Cressy, Auger-Aliassime playing at his peak, and a red-hot Tsitsipas (at least for the first 3 sets), and Tsitsipas took out Nadal last time. Nadal certainly can win if he's playing his best and Medvedev is not, but given their form in this tournament, Meddy looks not just better but looking like the best hard-court tennis player on the planet right now.



This board way underrates Next Gen but let's not get carried away here. Medvedev is not as good as perhaps the best hard-court player ever.

I said prime djokovic not peak, like Uo 2013

 

[James P]

I need revenge. I don't mean that in a mean way, but in the way he got Djokovic in his second F attempt, I need that same energy here.

 

[Deleted member 788697]

There is a big problem with this logic. Medvedev has only gotten better since his losses to Nadal. Nadal is now older and slower. Medvedev is in his prime. Nadal has had an easy draw and has still dropped 4 sets. Both Shapovalov and Berrettini played about half the level of their best tennis. Medvedev has dropped 5 sets but he had a much tougher draw with Kyrgios, serve-and-volley Cressy, Auger-Aliassime playing at his peak, and a red-hot Tsitsipas (at least for the first 3 sets), and Tsitsipas took out Nadal last time. Nadal certainly can win if he's playing his best and Medvedev is not, but given their form in this tournament, Meddy looks not just better but looking like the best hard-court tennis player on the planet right now.

I completely disagree, Medvedev had the easiest draw of any slam finalist for quite some time.
And Tsitsipas played poorly and handed him an easy SF victory, whereas Berrettini fought to the end.
Also, Nadal has never needed his best to beat Medvedev on hardcourt, and 2022 Medvedev is nowhere near as good as 2019 North American Summer Medvedev-

 

[spottishwood]

I am yet to make a right prediction so goin for Rafa in 4.

 

[Picmun]

Med in 3, super easy barely an inconvenience

You are Tight !

 

[Rickenbacker4003]

I see Med as the favorite. He will be the most mentally stable player he's going to face in the tournament. He won the USO and his backhand has no holes in it that Rafa can exploit. However, Nadal has something that only two other players have and they're not here. The legends tend to have something that they can surprise you with. He's been around the block a couple of times. He also is going into this with the least amount of pressure I can recall. Before he was always facing Djokovic or Federer, so there was always the "race" in the back of his mind. He's playing a guy who he beat in the USO and someone that plays passive-defensive tennis. He will get his chances to attack and get his teeth into the match. Expectations on Rafa before this event were 4th Round, QF at best. So he's playing with house money and he looks hungry to win. Dangerous combo.

 

[SonicNirvana]

Ok, I'm gonna go against my convictions and pick Med in 4. Surely he isn't gonna lose to 35.5 year old Nadal, right?

surely

 

[Picmun]

I LOVE Mad Lad, he's so cool and striaght forward and such a bad ass dude.
- But I'd LOVE Rafa to get 21 and beat Djerkovic The Djoke.

This is really tough for me to choose, but it's going to be Great watching the final, as if either win I'm happy.

I guess I'm leaning to Rafa - Med will Multi Slam anyway. How many slams does Rafa have left in him ??

 

[SonicNirvana]

STOP, you are scaring me. You ARE NEVER right.

Wrong, sometimes he’s right by law of averages.

 

[Gru]

I do not see Nadal being able to grind this one out. Medvedev is too consistent on both wings. If this was Federer at 35, then sure, but Nadal's play is too demanding. Here really needs to go 2-0 to have a chance to bead the bear-man.

 

[BeatlesFan]

I think a lot of the voting here is skewed by Djokovic/Fed fans who are heavily invested in wanting to see Rafa denied #21. Many are (subconsciously?) acting as if Nadal has little chance.

All this talk of Rafa having no physical stamina and "Med will win a war of attrition with superior fitness" seems like wishful thinking and that assumes this will be a 4-5 set match. It just as likely could be a three-set beatdown of DM.

Med has completely choked before in a Rafa match, he's choked several times since then as well. Rafa has the experience, is still a mental beast and has every conceivable match up advantage to Med. He negates Med's massive serve by standing on the moon for his ROS, and since Med never serves and volleys, many points will begin from a neutral perspective - not good for Med. His form was very high in the semis, but it was garbage in earlier rounds, whereas Nadal has been consistently good and mentally completely engaged throughout the tournament.

 

[Yugram]

@mike danny Hey, we’ve done it

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Let's go anybody. But yeah, probably leaning more towards Rafa.

 

[ForehandCross]

I completely disagree, Medvedev had the easiest draw of any slam finalist for quite some time.

You haven't been watching. Kyrgios played top 20 tennis in RD 2,Cressy was peaking , FAA played his best match ever and probably hit top 3 levels in that QF. Tsitsipas came into SF playing his best match in a long time in quarters.

Med's draw in reality on court was one of the toughest for recent slam finalists.

 

[ForehandCross]

The one thing that will decide this match is Nadal's return vs Medvedev serve. That's what will decide the winner.

If Medvedev serves like USO 2021 F, he takes the trophy.

 

[Yugram]

The one thing that will decide this match is Nadal's return vs Medvedev serve. That's what will decide the winner.

If Medvedev serves like USO 2021 F, he takes the trophy.

I’m actually feeling positive in regards to serve-return dynamic. Followed all Medvedev’s and all Nadal’s matches, and apart from Kyrgios match, where Medvedev really performed a masterclass, Nadal was better returner at this tournament. It’s either Medvedev is not in the form of his life, or this court doesn’t reward deep returning much, but at times he was almost hopeless in his last 3 matches.

 

[ForehandCross]

I’m actually feeling positive in regards to serve-return dynamic. Followed all Medvedev’s and all Nadal’s matches, and apart from Kyrgios match, where Medvedev really performed a masterclass, Nadal was better returner at this tournament. It’s either Medvedev is not in the form of his life, or this court doesn’t reward deep returning much, but at times he was almost hopeless in his last 3 matches.

Med apart from that 4th set against Stef hasn't been anywhere what he usually is on HC when playing well.

And I really suspect that urgency in the 4th was born out of fear of physically failing if the match went to 5th.

But then if he recovers, and plays like he played in the 4th set, it will be tough for Nadal.

Nadal is such a ball striker that when people give him space to breath he will always come up with unreal power but, Nadal's issue has been with players who keep redirecting and don't let him have the chance to dictate.

The serve return thing is extremely important because I think the rallies will be 50-50. Last year's AO final, Med didn't serve well and he folded when Djokovic kept getting serves back, he just wasn't ready for it.

This time he would be. It's a highly interesting match.

 

[zvelf]

I completely disagree, Medvedev had the easiest draw of any slam finalist for quite some time.
And Tsitsipas played poorly and handed him an easy SF victory, whereas Berrettini fought to the end.
Also, Nadal has never needed his best to beat Medvedev on hardcourt, and 2022 Medvedev is nowhere near as good as 2019 North American Summer Medvedev

All three of these statements are wrong. You only have to look at the last slam, the U.S. Open, where Medvedev had a notably easier draw than here up to the final.

Every professional tennis commenter on the Berrettini match said Berrettini was playing horribly. All Nadal had to do was keep aiming at his backhand until that backhand turned into an unforced error. Every professional tennis commenter on the Tsitsipas match praised him and the quality of the match as a whole. Tsitsipas ended the match with more winners than unforced errors. Berrettini was the opposite with more unforced errors than winners.

Finally, Nadal has barely beaten Medvedev in most of their matches with 3 of the 4 going the distance, so obviously, Nadal does need his best to beat Medvedev.

 

[Yugram]

Med apart from that 4th set against Stef hasn't been anywhere what he usually is on HC when playing well.

And I really suspect that urgency in the 4th was born out of fear of physically failing if the match went to 5th.

But then if he recovers, and plays like he played in the 4th set, it will be tough for Nadal.

Nadal is such a ball striker that when people give him space to breath he will always come up with unreal power but, Nadal's issue has been with players who keep redirecting and don't let him have the chance to dictate.

The serve return thing is extremely important because I think the rallies will be 50-50. Last year's AO final, Med didn't serve well and he folded when Djokovic kept getting serves back, he just wasn't ready for it.

This time he would be. It's a highly interesting match.

Medvedev also gone violent mode against Aliassime in 5th. It’s always weird look when Medvedev starts Thieming because he is... not so good at Thieming. Guess that is his last reserve, final pre-death form.

 

[Hold Me Back]

Medvedev will win the final.

 

[gjm127]

Medvedev in 3. I feel like it will be exactly like USO 2021 F. Why wouldn't it be?

 

[Ray Mercer]

I think Medvedev will win. Nadal barely squeaked out a win 3 years ago at the US Open and his level is not nearly as good as it was then. Medvedev on the other hand is at the absolute peak of his career. The rallies in the Aliassime match were at another level than anything Nadal has produced this tournament.

 

[wang07]

On paper, all Medvedev has to do is make it a long match, he seemed to have no issues at all today after the 5-hour marathon, so he could "easily" do the same thing again for 4-5 hours on Sunday. It's almost a comfortable playground for him (keep the rallies extended, make Nadal work as much as possible in the first 2-3 sets, don't necessarily go for too much when not needed), and for Rafa it's just nightmare scenario at this point, that's the reality.

On the contrary, the only chance for Rafa is to be relentless and just try to hit through Meddy with no compromises whatsoever. If it works, well done, if it doesn't, well, there was no other way so get on with it. I just can't see the path for him to get it done atm, maybe if he plays the way he did in Wimby 2018 vs. Djoker, for instance. That level and mindset could be enough, but very unlikely to happen. No way he's going to outlast this Medvedev in a 5-setter, it's about as ridiculous as suggesting that he could have outlasted Djokovic in 2019. Not happening.

 

[kishnabe]

Medvedev in 5.

Nadal takes first 2 set, Nadal body breaks down, Meddy wins next 3 easily.

 

[BGod]

To make up for my losses on Shap, Tsit (against Med) & Berrettini I'm putting it all on Rafa on money line. Largely because his payout is much bigger than Daniil.

 

[Shangri La]

If Med has 70% left in the tank then he's taking the title.

 

[Yugram]

To make up for my losses on Shap, Tsit (against Med) & Berrettini I'm putting it all on Rafa on money line. Largely because his payout is much bigger than Daniil.

Finally you see the light!

 

[BGod]

Finally you see the light!

Yes!!! Praise be #21, Double Career Slam, 2024 Olympic Double Career Golden Slam!!! GOAT of GOATS

 

[Day_Tripper]

Medvedev will win this in four sets possible three. His defence is too good. He only needs to take this past 2 and a half hours and Nadal will start to tire. Once that happens its game over. Nadal has done well to get this far but this won't be a fairytale ending.

 

[Day_Tripper]

On paper, all Medvedev has to do is make it a long match, he seemed to have no issues at all today after the 5-hour marathon, so he could "easily" do the same thing again for 4-5 hours on Sunday. It's almost a comfortable playground for him (keep the rallies extended, make Nadal work as much as possible in the first 2-3 sets, don't necessarily go for too much when not needed), and for Rafa it's just nightmare scenario at this point, that's the reality.

On the contrary, the only chance for Rafa is to be relentless and just try to hit through Meddy with no compromises whatsoever. If it works, well done, if it doesn't, well, there was no other way so get on with it. I just can't see the path for him to get it done atm, maybe if he plays the way he did in Wimby 2018 vs. Djoker, for instance. That level and mindset could be enough, but very unlikely to happen. No way he's going to outlast this Medvedev in a 5-setter, it's about as ridiculous as suggesting that he could have outlasted Djokovic in 2019. Not happening.

Good analysis. I agree. For Medvedev its all about playing at a fast tempo and making the match go long. Nadal doesn't have the physical conditioning to go over 3 hours with a player of this calibre.

 

[abmk]

Med has completely choked before in a Rafa match, he's choked several times since then as well. Rafa has the experience, is still a mental beast and has every conceivable match up advantage to Med. He negates Med's massive serve by standing on the moon for his ROS, and since Med never serves and volleys, many points will begin from a neutral perspective - not good for Med. His form was very high in the semis, but it was garbage in earlier rounds, whereas Nadal has been consistently good and mentally completely engaged throughout the tournament.

Med did SnV vs Nadal in USO 19 final for one.
Med was in fine form before the semi except the one FAA match where he wasn't great, but not bad either.

Med loses this in 2 ways - gets thrown by slicing from nadal or implodes himself.
Else he should take this.

nadal struggled vs mannarino in set 1, collapsed physically vs shapo, had a letdown vs berr as well in set 3 and part of set 4, had letdown vs Khach in set 3

 

[RokasLTU]

 

[tudwell]

I think a lot of the voting here is skewed by Djokovic/Fed fans who are heavily invested in wanting to see Rafa denied #21. Many are (subconsciously?) acting as if Nadal has little chance.

All this talk of Rafa having no physical stamina and "Med will win a war of attrition with superior fitness" seems like wishful thinking and that assumes this will be a 4-5 set match.

I'm sure wishful thinking plays a role, but did you watch Nadal's last two matches? He had a huge drop in form as the third set wore on in both of them, and never really recovered – certainly never got anywhere near the level of the first two sets. He was absolutely bossing Berrettini in the second set, couldn't put a foot wrong – fast-forward an hour and he's letting balls go during rallies and barely putting a single Berrettini serve in play.

It's entirely possible Medvedev fails to capitalize on these fitness issues from Nadal, but they seem undoubtedly real to me.

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

So is this Rafa’s first attempt at 21 in a final yeah? Djokovic had a 1 go, Fed had 1 go and now Rafa??! Is that it??! My memory is not good anymore…

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

I'm sure wishful thinking plays a role, but did you watch Nadal's last two matches? He had a huge drop in form as the third set wore on in both of them, and never really recovered – certainly never got anywhere near the level of the first two sets. He was absolutely bossing Berrettini in the second set, couldn't put a foot wrong – fast-forward an hour and he's letting balls go during rallies and barely putting a single Berrettini serve in play.

It's entirely possible Medvedev fails to capitalize on these fitness issues from Nadal, but they seem undoubtedly real to me.

Yeah it seems most people are saying this - he seems on fire initially and then fades dramatically…Not seen any of his matches due to time difference but vibe I get is he fading quite quickly…Won’t do against Meddy I’m afraid…

 

[alexio]

So is this Rafa’s first attempt at 21 in a final yeah? Djokovic had a 1 go, Fed had 1 go and now Rafa??! Is that it??! My memory is not good anymore…

right

 

[GhostOfNKDM]

What's Rafa's record in the finals of a slam?

 

[irishnadalfan1983]

right

WOW! Good chance it will end up them all failing at first attempt. Damn.

 

[Krish872007]

Sticking with Nadal in 5.
In fact, might as well embarrass myself right now with a score prediction:

6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 2-6, 6-4

 

[dropshotlikeitshot]

if Med wins he becomes the first player to win his first 2 slams back to back in the Open Era

 

[chicagodude]

If Nadal playes like the first set against Shapo, he may win in 4 sets. If he somehow ends up in a 5th set, Medvedev will win based on fitness. Nadal is still often described as having superior fitness, but that hasn't been the case for years in long grueling matches.

Look at the past 5 years for example:
2021: 1 against Tistipas, lost after winning first 2 sets
2020: none played (although he did lose a grueling 4-set match against Thiem)
2019: 1 played against Medvedev. Lost set 3-4 after winning first 2 and barely managed to win the last purely on willpower, he was clearly completely spent physically
2018: USO: 1 against Thiem barely squeaked out the win, retiring in the round after. WO: good win over Delpo, after which he lost 5-setter against Djoko. Arguably last time he physically was pretty good but also on grass where the rallies are less taxing endurance-wise. AO: loss again Cilic
2017: WO: loss against Muller AO: wins over Zverev and Dimitrov, then losing against Federer
Add to that 2022 with ending up in 5th set after winning first 2 against Shapovalov and being utterly spent compared to SHapovalov, again squeaking out the win based on will and experience

5-4 overall and even the wins most of them were more on willpower than due to his great physical stamina.
This is natural of course, I mean at some point endurance can tail off especially with his playing style, but commentators should really stop saying anything about his great endurance. It's really mostly the will to go extremely deep into his reserves to win that gets him there quite often still.

Anyway, if he plays anything like the last 3 sets agains Shapo or Berrettini, he'll lose in 3 or 4 sets