Australian Open 2025 QF - [7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)

Win Prediction Poll


  • Total voters
    116
  • Poll closed .

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
H2H is 4-3 Djokovic
HC H2H is 2-0 Djokovic
Last meeting - Paris Olympics 2024 final, Djok def. Alcaraz 76(4) 76(2)
Last slam meeting - Wimbledon 2024 final, Alcaraz def. Djoko 62 62 76(4)
Last HC meeting - YEC 2023 SF, Djok def. Alcaraz 63 62

This is their first HC slam meeting, and a first QF of any kind between the two. Before this, they've only played each other at a SF/F level.

This is the biggest match at AO 2025 so far; 10x champ, 38 yo tour veteran against the 2nd time quarterfinalist youngster who's defeated him twice at a slam final level.

Who wins?
How many sets?

Vote & discuss


Edit after the match was over -

My prediction held up & Djoko won in 4 without much drama, he was the better player throughout sets 2, 3 & 4. Alcaraz didn't stand a chance.
 
Last edited:

Rafa4LifeEver

G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz in 3. Trust me!
Djokovic is too good to go down in 3.
Even at this age, it'll take a phenomenal effort from Alcaraz to take him down in 4 or 5, let alone 3. He'd have to play HC tennis at a level I've not seen from him anywhere except for the Beijing Final against Sinner, and even then, he'd not be able to afford blowing up so many leads like he did that day.
 

jl809

Legend
Finally we get the HC slam match

Djokovic was not as good in this round as he was before…. but Alcaraz was even worse vs Draper

this one will be Djoker’s and it won’t be a classic imo
 

Oceans II

Professional
Feeling confident and looking forward. Have this stupid feeling Djokovic will defeat Alcaraz and Zverev but lose to Sinner in the final after everything that has happened with Sinner. Worst scenario and will continue the tradition of Murray collecting runners-up plates at AO.
 

jl809

Legend
Feeling confident and looking forward. Have this stupid feeling Djokovic will defeat Alcaraz and Zverev but lose to Sinner in the final after everything that has happened with Sinner. Worst scenario and will continue the tradition of Murray collecting runners-up plates at AO.
This is my feeling too. Beats Alcaraz in 4, Zverev in 4 or 5 and then loses to Sinner in 4. Hope I’m wrong because I want a winner’s trophy of any kind for Murray so badly
 
Very difficult for Djokovic to win this at 37. He has a gauntlet now but he’s done well to get this far. I think it ends here. In a slam over best of 5 alcaraz has the edge. Alcaraz in 4 or maybe 5 sets! I will go alcaraz in 5 but could be 4.
 
It's a pretty straightforward path for Carlos if he wants to win: move Djoker around and actually hit shots on the run - neither of which the two Czechs he beat in the last two rounds were able to do. That said, how easy is it to do? Loving Nole's tennis IQ once again here. If the other guys can't figure out how to play tennis, they have no business beating him. Which Carlos will show up? I think, given that he was not upset early, that the better version will and this will be barnstormer of a match. The guy I think is most likely to be AWOL here, however, is Alcaraz, not Djokovic.
 

Oceans II

Professional
Probably the most ideal conditions for Djokovic to play Alcaraz in a slam.
Djokovic most successful slam.
Rod Laver Arena and slower conditions?
Night match?
Alcaraz least successful slam and barely having any big match experience at Rod Laver Arena.
Mental edge after Olympics?
 
From sinner’s point of view he will definitely want Djokovic to win. I genuinely think only alcaraz can stop sinner here. Sinner has the beating of everyone else on hard courts. I think a 37 year old worn down Djokovic or a Zverev with has diabetes and can be a choker in finals is the best outcome for him. Alcaraz obviously been the biggest problem to sinner as we saw last year.
 

Fluffy_Skye

Semi-Pro
Djoko is just too slow. And Alcaraz is the fastest player right now. Very difficult for Djoko. If Djoko wins, I have no words to describe what an incredible achievement that is.
 

KevinDouglas

New User
From sinner’s point of view he will definitely want Djokovic to win. I genuinely think only alcaraz can stop sinner here. Sinner has the beating of everyone else on hard courts. I think a 37 year old worn down Djokovic or a Zverev with has diabetes and can be a choker in finals is the best outcome for him. Alcaraz obviously been the biggest problem to sinner as we saw last year.
Are you sure? Tomorrow Rune will beat Sinner.
 

dking68

Legend
From sinner’s point of view he will definitely want Djokovic to win. I genuinely think only alcaraz can stop sinner here. Sinner has the beating of everyone else on hard courts. I think a 37 year old worn down Djokovic or a Zverev with has diabetes and can be a choker in finals is the best outcome for him. Alcaraz obviously been the biggest problem to sinner as we saw last year.
I got Djokovic in 4. Alcaraz in 5 is the next prediction
 

dking68

Legend
I got alcaraz in 5 but think it will be close. I do agree with you though that sinner is the favourite this tournament and probably still is slightly even in final with alcaraz. He playing at an incredible level and is a machine.
Alcaraz doesn’t do well with undue pressure. Sinner just has to defend his title. Carlos has to win the career slam. You realize how everyone brings it up in his interviews but never brings up the pressure of a title defense towards Sinner? Yeah I think I know who will feel it more in a potential final
 
Nothing tops USO 2011 for Djoko, nothing whatsoever.
I’d agree as he beat the closest versions to peak/prime Fedal back to back. That said if he was to win against alcaraz, Zverev and sinner in a row and the matches are epics that would be right at the top with that as his best achievement ever. I don’t see it happening though but I’m just delighted he’s in the quarters again. He can still beat lots of players and still at least one of the top 5 players in game at moment.
 
Alcaraz doesn’t do well with undue pressure. Sinner just has to defend his title. Carlos has to win the career slam. You realize how everyone brings it up in his interviews but never brings up the pressure of a title defense towards Sinner? Yeah I think I know who will feel it more in a potential final
Good point. Alcaraz could feel extra pressure trying to win career slam. You are right and he can get tight. This is probably his weakest slam of the 4 and the court alcaraz still the least comfortable on so far.
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
Carlos has made technical changes, they are not totally settled yet, im not sure if they Will help him here or on the other hand, Will make It worse, as this is the first match where presumably he is going to be put under enormous pressure, novak is gonna fight like a dog, he is super motivated and is playing great, Carlos seems more solid than last year but he hasnt shown his Max level yet, on paper It can be an amazing match, as both are fit, but then anything could happen, very difficult to predict, It should be a tight match
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
Alcaraz doesn’t do well with undue pressure. Sinner just has to defend his title. Carlos has to win the career slam. You realize how everyone brings it up in his interviews but never brings up the pressure of a title defense towards Sinner? Yeah I think I know who will feel it more in a potential final
What pressure? Lol hes 21, he doesnt have to win It now, if anything that motivates him more than past years, if he gets past Djokovic he probably wins the tournament
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
I also feel novak has a little Edge comming into this match but Carlos at slams is an animal, It Will take a bad Carlos day for Djoko to win, as i feel if Djoko wins, it has to be in 4 sets max
We are talking about the same player who was destroyed by VdZ at the last US Open, and who in this tournament exactly 12 months ago was one step away from being demolished in 3 sets by Zverev, and in any case even though he extended the match to the fourth he still came out very badly from that match.

All this to say that obviously Alcaraz can always show off a great performance by eliminating the current Djokovic, but if he were to lose clearly it shouldn't be surprising and it wouldn't even be something abnormal.

At the moment Alcaraz on hard surfaces is not worth his slam version on natural surfaces, it's a fact.
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
We are talking about the same player who was destroyed by VdZ at the last US Open, and who in this tournament exactly 12 months ago was one step away from being demolished in 3 sets by Zverev, and in any case even though he extended the match to the fourth he still came out very badly from that match.

All this to say that obviously Alcaraz can always show off a great performance by eliminating the current Djokovic, but if he were to lose clearly it shouldn't be surprising and it wouldn't even be something abnormal.

At the moment Alcaraz on hard surfaces is not worth his slam version on natural surfaces, it's a fact.
Its also the same Alcaraz Who has only lost one 5 set match, whos won slams at every surface, and Who beat sinner at Beijing not so long ago either, he can be patchy, but when he is, you normally see It from the beginning of the tournament, this tournament he clearly seems like he has steped Up his consistency a bit, yes It wouldnt be a Big surprise if he loses, as he is facing a 24 gs champion whos motivated and playing great, but It wouldnt be a surprise if he wins either, the perception that he is not a good hard courter is wrong, hes won masters and slams on the surface, last year he didnt adapt his game to the surface as players can hurt him a bit easier on hard, but he can beat anyone in any court, and in any moment he can start a winning streak on hard, to be honest Djokovic oponents didnt push him enough, he was solid and played good the important points, but this is not unexperienced Carlos anymore, and if the match gets physical novak is gonna feel it
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Its also the same Alcaraz Who has only lost one 5 set match, whos won slams at every surface, and Who beat sinner at Beijing not so long ago either, he can be patchy, but when he is, you normally see It from the beginning of the tournament, this tournament he clearly seems like he has steped Up his consistency a bit, yes It wouldnt be a Big surprise if he loses, as he is facing a 24 gs champion whos motivated and playing great, but It wouldnt be a surprise if he wins either, the perception that he is not a good hard courter is wrong, hes won masters and slams on the surface, last year he didnt adapt his game to the surface as players can hurt him a bit easier on hard, but he can beat anyone in any court, and in any moment he can start a winning streak on hard, to be honest Djokovic oponents didnt push him enough, he was solid and played good the important points, but this is not unexperienced Carlos anymore, and if the match gets physical novak is gonna feel it
It is absolutely not true that the negative version of Alcaraz can be perceived already at the beginning of the tournament.
At the 2024 Australian Open his approach to the challenge with Zverev was no different from the current one.
At the 2023 US Open he had destroyed everyone before going out with Medvedev in the semifinals, ditto at Roland Garros 2023 before the challenge with Djokovic.

In fact, last year he won Roland Garros and especially Wimbledon after some matches played badly in the previous rounds.

Then I don't understand your underlining how much he achieved on hard.
I didn't say that he is poor on hard, I said that he is not worth his versions on natural surfaces.

In general, I am clearly giving the favorite in the matchup to a player who despite his age seems to be in excellent shape, and who has won this tournament 10 times.
If the presumed limits of the current Djokovic have not yet been explored, the same can be said about the current Alcaraz who has so far had an easier opposition than the Serbian.
 

dking68

Legend
It is absolutely not true that the negative version of Alcaraz can be perceived already at the beginning of the tournament.
At the 2024 Australian Open his approach to the challenge with Zverev was no different from the current one.
At the 2023 US Open he had destroyed everyone before going out with Medvedev in the semifinals, ditto at Roland Garros 2023 before the challenge with Djokovic.

In fact, last year he won Roland Garros and especially Wimbledon after some matches played badly in the previous rounds.

Then I don't understand your underlining how much he achieved on hard.
I didn't say that he is poor on hard, I said that he is not worth his versions on natural surfaces.

In general, I am clearly giving the favorite in the matchup to a player who despite his age seems to be in excellent shape, and who has won this tournament 10 times.
If the presumed limits of the current Djokovic have not yet been explored, the same can be said about the current Alcaraz who has so far had an easier opposition than the Serbian.
Djokovic in 4.
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
It is absolutely not true that the negative version of Alcaraz can be perceived already at the beginning of the tournament.
At the 2024 Australian Open his approach to the challenge with Zverev was no different from the current one.
At the 2023 US Open he had destroyed everyone before going out with Medvedev in the semifinals, ditto at Roland Garros 2023 before the challenge with Djokovic.

In fact, last year he won Roland Garros and especially Wimbledon after some matches played badly in the previous rounds.

Then I don't understand your underlining how much he achieved on hard.
I didn't say that he is poor on hard, I said that he is not worth his versions on natural surfaces.

In general, I am clearly giving the favorite in the matchup to a player who despite his age seems to be in excellent shape, and who has won this tournament 10 times.
If the presumed limits of the current Djokovic have not yet been explored, the same can be said about the current Alcaraz who has so far had an easier opposition than the Serbian.
I will give you last years australian open, as its true It was more or less the same as this one, but 2023 uso no, he played great the whole tournament including the match against medvedev, that to me was not a bad Carlos performance at all, med was just playing UNBELIEVABLE tennis and tactically killed alcaraz, i do believe hes worth the same on hard, but i understand It doesnt seem so given that he can lose more easily there, but i really think he can do the same damage on hard and its just a Matter of time, Who knows, this could be the slam where he gives a step ahead in consistency on hard, what i mean is that while its true thats a bit easier to upset him on hard, as points go faster and it can be harder to find rythm, his shots are not really less effective, its the tactical side of things and getting used to the patterns and rivals a bit more, to put It another way, i dont think Alcaraz is gonna be like Nadal, surface oriented, this said, i understand you put Djokovic as favourite, im not saying hes not, but then if we think normally for novak to win It will have to be in 4 sets (its not a given but maybe more probabilities) well, its not an easy task against a fresh alcaraz Who just comes motivated from holidays, what i Guess i mean, is: its highly unlikely that we Will see the Alcaraz Who Lost against bvdz or monfils in this match, we Will see
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
I dunno, I have a hunch this is going to be a disappointing match for Alcaraz. Not terribly impressed by his form in this tournament. Djokovic hasn’t looked too sharp either as of his most recent match but I think he should beat Carlos here.
Well, i think the changes he has implemented Will help him on the long run, but its true that making them before a grand slam with no time to try them... If he had had a difficult match yet, he would be more ready i feel, but no one has really put pressure on him and i feel this changes in technique can really be problematic when theyre not automatic yet and he is put under pressure like novak is gonna do, honestly thinking about that, i think if he comes through It Will have an unbelievable merit.
 
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