Australian Open 2025 QF - [7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)

Win Prediction Poll


  • Total voters
    116
  • Poll closed .

Alcawrath

Professional
If the presumed limits of the current Djokovic have not yet been explored, the same can be said about the current Alcaraz who has so far had an easier opposition than the Serbian.
Objectively false, Draper > Lehecka both in rank and the eye test. Before you say that Draper was injured and a shell of himself, Draper stepped onto the court believing he was fit enough to compete against Alcaraz, but Alcaraz broke him down physically during the first set. Alcaraz' punishing style of play exacerbated Draper's tendonitis having to sprint corner to corner and run down droppers. Carlos forced draper to break points before draper started dealing with tendonitis flare ups.
 

TheSlicer

Hall of Fame
Objectively false, Draper > Lehecka both in rank and the eye test. Before you say that Draper was injured and a shell of himself, Draper stepped onto the court believing he was fit enough to compete against Alcaraz, but Alcaraz broke him down physically during the first set. Alcaraz' punishing style of play exacerbated Draper's tendonitis having to sprint corner to corner and run down droppers. Carlos forced draper to break points before draper started dealing with tendonitis flare ups.
While i agree that draper is a better player, i think its fair to say that neither player has been really pushed, then again, Carlos let a confortable 5-2 turn into a 5-5 without draper doing anything crazy while novak let lehechka get to the tie break in the 3rd without the cezch playing anything special either, thats why i think that given every variable involved, i feel this is a pretty equal match on paper, then anything can happen, Carlos could win in 3 and wouldnt really be surprising, or novak could win in 4 and wouldnt be crazy either, this said, its easier that Carlos can show his best self than novak at 37 shows his best level from 2 years ago, he has won just by experience and playing good the important moments but against Alcaraz, on top of that, he has to elevate his shot quality a couple of notches to go toe to toe with him, if he is able to do that is the question, but impossible to write him off when hes motivated.
 

Alcawrath

Professional
While i agree that draper is a better player, i think its fair to say that neither player has been really pushed, then again, Carlos let a confortable 5-2 turn into a 5-5 without draper doing anything crazy while novak let lehechka get to the tie break in the 3rd without the cezch playing anything special either, thats why i think that given every variable involved, i feel this is a pretty equal match on paper, then anything can happen, Carlos could win in 3 and wouldnt really be surprising, or novak could win in 4 and wouldnt be crazy either, this said, its easier that Carlos can show his best self than novak at 37 shows his best level from 2 years ago, he has won just by experience and playing good the important moments but against Alcaraz, on top of that, he has to elevate his shot quality a couple of notches to go toe to toe with him, if he is able to do that is the question, but impossible to write him off when hes motivated.
All good points, can't wait to watch it (hope it's not in the middle of the night here).
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Objectively false, Draper > Lehecka both in rank and the eye test. Before you say that Draper was injured and a shell of himself, Draper stepped onto the court believing he was fit enough to compete against Alcaraz, but Alcaraz broke him down physically during the first set. Alcaraz' punishing style of play exacerbated Draper's tendonitis having to sprint corner to corner and run down droppers. Carlos forced draper to break points before draper started dealing with tendonitis flare ups.
First of all, Djokovic didn't just have to face Lehecka but also Machac.

That said, Draper's hip injury during the off-season is not fake but real, as is the fact that before getting to the challenge with Alcaraz he had to win 3 matches in the fifth set against opponents who were anything but irresistible.
He needed 5 sets to beat the clay specialist Navone, but what are we talking about?

Lehecka instead came to the challenge with Djokovic after a path that was clearly more convincing than Draper's, including the fact that he was coming off the triumph in Brisbane.

So yes, Djokovic's path so far in terms of opposition has been much more convincing than Alcaraz's.
 

Alcawrath

Professional
First of all, Djokovic didn't just have to face Lehecka but also Machac.
In case you're unaware, Machac is also lower ranked than Draper and the hip injury is tendonitis referenced by draper as surfacing midway through the first set after Alcaraz was in the driver's seat
 
Alcaraz is trying to find his peak game that you see little parts of it pop up from time to time in the middle of his matches. For example, his back hand has looked amazing and his return has also been amazing and his movement right now is the best in the world so, if he plays his best tennis, he’s going to win, but I’m not sure if he’s going to be able to pull it all together against the motivated Djokovic. as far as betting goes, Djokovic as a +140 — +160 live dog is very enticing.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
In case you're unaware, Machac is also lower ranked than Draper and the hip injury is tendonitis referenced by draper as surfacing midway through the first set after Alcaraz was in the driver's seat
I repeat, Draper was coming off an off season compromised by the hip injury that made him out of shape here in Melbourne and you could see it in the first 3 rounds.
It's not a question of ranking but of approach, that of the two Czechs was much more convincing having played and very well before this tournament.
Ignoring this means demonstrating for the umpteenth time that you analyze the issues in a world apart from the real one.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Djokovic can win here but he needs to raise his game since last year. Has he done it? No idea. Lehecka and Machac were good test but actually alcaraz is the real test.

Djokovic went what 2-5 or something vs top 10 last year. He needs to DO something before he is actually considered favorite ever again.

Alcaraz in 4 sets.
 

Alcawrath

Professional
Ignoring this means demonstrating for the umpteenth time that you analyze the issues in a world apart from the real one.
Draper felt fit enough to compete in the slam and stepped on the court. I'm not going to qualify his results to fit some personal narrative. I will take him at face value and his results and ranking.

Resorting to personal attacks usually indicates an inability to rely on your arguments alone.
 

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
We are talking about the same player who was destroyed by VdZ at the last US Open, and who in this tournament exactly 12 months ago was one step away from being demolished in 3 sets by Zverev, and in any case even though he extended the match to the fourth he still came out very badly from that match.

All this to say that obviously Alcaraz can always show off a great performance by eliminating the current Djokovic, but if he were to lose clearly it shouldn't be surprising and it wouldn't even be something abnormal.

At the moment Alcaraz on hard surfaces is not worth his slam version on natural surfaces, it's a fact.
To be fair, Djokovic himself did very little on hard courts last year. One top-10 win on the surface (Fritz), zero titles. Alcaraz beat 7 top-10 players and nabbed a couple titles. It’s not at all clear that Djokovic is the superior hard-court player at this point in time.

Of course, he’s Djokovic and this is his house and he could bring form he failed to find at all last year. We’ll see.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Draper felt fit enough to compete in the slam and stepped on the court. I'm not going to qualify his results to fit some personal narrative. I will take him at face value and his results and ranking.

Resorting to personal attacks usually indicates an inability to rely on your arguments alone.
And instead someone who insinuates about the history of personal attacks?

I am not attacking you personally but I judge what you write to be quite disturbing for analytical bias.
Alcaraz could lose a match 6-0 6-0 6-0 and you would still be able to find the positive side.
 

Alcawrath

Professional
And instead someone who insinuates about the history of personal attacks?
Correct, don't engage in personal attacks unless you are prepared to be confronted about why someone chooses to engage in such
I am not attacking you personally but I judge what you write to be quite disturbing for analytical bias.
Alcaraz could lose a match 6-0 6-0 6-0 and you would still be able to find the positive side.
He did not lose 0-6,0-6,0-6. He beat Draper (a top #20 player in a two set walkover).
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
To be fair, Djokovic himself did very little on hard courts last year. One top-10 win on the surface (Fritz), zero titles. Alcaraz beat 7 top-10 players and nabbed a couple titles. It’s not at all clear that Djokovic is the superior hard-court player at this point in time.

Of course, he’s Djokovic and this is his house and he could bring form he failed to find at all last year. We’ll see.
Last year Djokovic played 4 tournaments on hard surfaces to Alcaraz's 9.

That said, my Djokovic over Alcaraz bias is not based on what he did last year but on what I've seen so far in this tournament.
That Alcaraz story was in response to the user who said that at the slam level the Spaniard is a different animal.
 

Quaichang

Professional
Probably the most ideal conditions for Djokovic to play Alcaraz in a slam.
Djokovic most successful slam.
Rod Laver Arena and slower conditions?
Night match?
Alcaraz least successful slam and barely having any big match experience at Rod Laver Arena.
Mental edge after Olympics?
I think slower conditions also favors Carlitos.
 

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
Can never count out Djokovic but if Alcaraz is on his game (which you never know with Carlos) then he should win this in 4 or 5 tough sets but, still, it's crazy that this is a QF matchup and the prize for the winner is Zverev most likely. Meanwhile on Sinner's side of the draw.... ok, let me stop.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Correct, don't engage in personal attacks unless you are prepared to be confronted about why someone chooses to engage in such

He did not lose 0-6,0-6,0-6. He beat Draper (a top #20 player in a two set walkover).
He beat a corpse after a first set in which he committed 4 double faults and 21 unforced errors.

Nothing, just keep convincing yourself.
Nothing personal.
 

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
I dunno, I have a hunch this is going to be a disappointing match for Alcaraz. Not terribly impressed by his form in this tournament. Djokovic hasn’t looked too sharp either as of his most recent match but I think he should beat Carlos here.
The thing about these top guys is that they tend to hit the cruise control against lesser opponents early in tournaments then rev it up for the second week against better opponents. This happened all the time with the Big 3 when there was concern about their early tournament form then they took it up a few levels for the bigger matches.
 

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
Depends on Alcaraz's head. Seems Safin like recently (Olympics). He should win but wouldn't be surprised if Djoker wins in 4 or 5.
 
Can never count out Djokovic but if Alcaraz is on his game (which you never know with Carlos) then he should win this in 4 or 5 tough sets but, still, it's crazy that this is a QF matchup and the prize for the winner is Zverev most likely. Meanwhile on Sinner's side of the draw.... ok, let me stop.
Sinner is loving it. As the world no1 though he deserves these breaks in the draw more.
 
Agree, I pick Djoko in 4.
6-3 6-4 5-7 6-4
The Olympic final will be a blessing for Alcaraz here. That match torpedoed his season last year, hardly won a match afterwards, and you can bet any money Alcaraz wanted Djokovic at the AO.
You will see a zoned in highly focussed Alcaraz and he may well win in straight sets. The problem i think he faces though is nothing to date has suggested he can back up such zoned in mental performaces as whenever he has had big wins (Wimbledon) he has then struggled thereafter for a while. FO last year he won then went out at Queens early. So the issue i see is while he may dismantle Djokovic, backing that intensity up in the semis against Paul or Zverev may prove difficult, so he may pay a Djokovic tax so to speak.
 

THUNDERVOLLEY

G.O.A.T.
If somehow 37y Djokovic wins against Alcaraz, Zverev and Sinner back-to-back, this would be his greatest slam victory, greater than even the USO11.

Not even close...

If this one:

BwLWn1X.jpg


..loses, it will be great for this AO and tennis in general. However, defeating Zverev means absolutely nothing; he's not a majors winner, and to this date, lacks any skill that would lead to a majors victory. On the other hand, Djokovic v. Sinner--the aging, "Best of the Rest" player winning over the current best younger player--could be one of the best examples of a Cinderella Story in tennis.
 

NYTennisfan

Hall of Fame
Sinner is loving it. As the world no1 though he deserves these breaks in the draw more.
He does but I'd like to see him be tested more. Avoided all of Djokovic, Alcaraz and Zverev at the U.S. Open and is avoiding all of them and even Fritz now until the final. Not his fault, he just has to beat who is presented to him, but these draws have been butter soft and it makes the Sinner matches even more boring.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
He does but I'd like to see him be tested more. Avoided all of Djokovic, Alcaraz and Zverev at the U.S. Open and is avoiding all of them and even Fritz now until the final. Not his fault, he just has to beat who is presented to him, but these draws have been butter soft and it makes the Sinner matches even more boring.
If at the last US Open the various Djokovic, Alcaraz and Zverev, had done their part, that is, respected their seeding, Sinner would have met two out of three + Medvedev.
In fact, the possible pairings were with Medvedev in the quarterfinals, with Alcaraz in the semifinals, and with one between Djokovic and Zverev in the final.
Ergo, the fact that he had a draw that was anything but impossible is not due to the draw but to the demerits of his main opponents.

However, this at major level is literally the first draw favorable to Sinner since Wimbledon 2023.
After Wimbledon 2023 he has always had the worst draws.
 

DSH

Talk Tennis Guru
H2H is 4-3 Djokovic
HC H2H is 2-0 Djokovic
Last meeting - Paris Olympics 2024 final, Djok def. Alcaraz 76(4) 76(2)
Last slam meeting - Wimbledon 2024 final, Alcaraz def. Djoko 62 62 76(4)
Last HC meeting - YEC 2023 SF, Djok def. Alcaraz 63 62

This is their first HC slam meeting, and a first QF of any kind between the two. Before this, they've only played each other at a SF/F level.

This is the biggest match at AO 2025 so far; 10x champ, 38 yo tour veteran against the 2nd time quarterfinalist youngster who's defeated him twice at a slam final level.

Who wins?
How many sets?

Vote & discuss
It will be the last big match between the two.
In a few months Alcaraz will turn 22, the beginning of his prime, while Djokovic will be 38, an age where physical decline will be rapid and imminent.
I think it will be a great match and the wonderkid will reach his first semi-final at the Australian Open.
:D
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
If at the last US Open the various Djokovic, Alcaraz and Zverev, had done their part, that is, respected their seeding, Sinner would have met two out of three + Medvedev.
In fact, the possible pairings were with Medvedev in the quarterfinals, with Alcaraz in the semifinals, and with one between Djokovic and Zverev in the final.
Ergo, the fact that he had a draw that was anything but impossible is not due to the draw but to the demerits of his main opponents.

However, this at major level is literally the first draw favorable to Sinner at major level since Wimbledon 2023.
After Wimbledon 2023 he has always had the worst draws.
Why yes rg 2024 was a joke draw for sinner.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Why yes rg 2024 was a joke draw for sinner.
Even there, it's always the fault of those who didn't respect the prediction.
For example, in the first rounds he could have had Jarry coming from the final in Rome, a Chilean who was eliminated by Moutet.
In the quarterfinals he took Dimitrov, and in the semifinals he could have taken Zverev and instead he took Alcaraz.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Even there, it's always the fault of those who didn't respect the prediction.
For example, in the first rounds he could have had Jarry coming from the final in Rome, a Chilean who was eliminated by Moutet.
In the quarterfinals he took Dimitrov, and in the semifinals he could have taken Zverev and instead he took Alcaraz.
Dimitrov on clay is such a good draw. Probably only meddy in semifinal is better.
These guys are not build for clay at all.

Where are guys like Musetti Ruud etc. His path to the semis was easiest. I don't even mean some great guy like tsitsipas or zverev who was ranked outside of top 4 I think.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
11 hr 1 min on court for Djokovic

7 hr 45 min on court for Alcaraz ONLY.

Sadly this lehecka guy should have played Carlos and give us half dead draper. To even the odds.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
Dimitrov on clay is such a good draw. Probably only meddy in semifinal is better.
These guys are not build for clay at all.

Where are guys like Musetti Ruud etc. His path to the semis was easiest. I don't even mean some great guy like tsitsipas or zverev who was ranked outside of top 4 I think.
No, Zverev was the fourth seed.
I agree that in the first 5 rounds the draw was not at all harsh for him, but this is compensated by the fact that in the semifinals he could have had one between Zverev and Alcaraz and he got the more complicated one.
 

Juice4080

Semi-Pro
11 hr 1 min on court for Djokovic

7 hr 45 min on court for Alcaraz ONLY.

Sadly this lehecka guy should have played Carlos and give us half dead draper. To even the odds.

As long as it's below a certain threshold more time on the court is good especially against better competetion. Nole won't come into the match overworked nor undercooked.
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
Alcaraz hit a LOT of unforced errors against Draper in set 1. He proved at Wimbledon last year that he can tighten things up for the big match after playing like garbage, and we will have to see if he can repeat the trick.

I do think a lot of the problem was the day conditions and the way the bounce was bothering his diminutive frame, he presumably will not have that problem if the QF is a night match, but we'll see. He will have to adjust to the night conditions having played 3 straight night matches.

One thing you can say is that the depth on his forehand has been epic.
 

The Guru

Legend
If Carlos tries to outstrike Djokovic or blow him off the court I think Djokovic is taking this. If he plays under control, is willing to do some grinding, and attacks Novak’s legs I think he takes it. Fortunately I think Novak has a real chance of turning this into a closed court striking competition and I like his odds if that’s what this becomes.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
I just listened to Djokovic's statements in the press conference.
Basically he said that he is very satisfied with the level reached in the last two matches, and that he feels ready to compete, adding that when he feels good like he feels now, he is aware that he can beat anyone.

Words that contrast with what he said after last year's semifinal with Sinner, where not only he said that in that semifinal he had played one of his worst matches of his career at slam level, but he also added that in the whole tournament he had never felt good.
I instead remember that after having suffered more than necessary in the first two rounds, against Etcheverry, Mannarino and Fritz his level expressed was rather convincing.

But aside from this digression, if a Djokovic says he feels good he should be given due credit since he is not a Kyrgios type who when he speaks does it only for air.

Alcaraz is a champion and no one should be surprised if he beats Djokovic and wins the tournament, but in addition to reiterating that I see the Serb as the favorite in Tuesday's match, I also reiterate that some people need to get the last Wimbledon final out of their minds.
Djokovic may lose to Alcaraz on Tuesday, but to beat him the Spaniard will first have to go through hell and to come out of it unscathed he will have to show off his best version of himself.
Djokovic, if he is physically well, has too much solidity and experience to think he can dominate him.
I see this Djokovic as someone who bends but does not break.
 

tennisjedi

Hall of Fame
The anticipated qf match we've all been waiting for. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint.

Alcaraz is gonna need to be on his A game on his serve, ground game and mental strength. He can't afford to have 5 double faults, spray loose errors or have mental lapses like what happened in his match against Draper.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
I just listened to Djokovic's statements in the press conference.
Basically he said that he is very satisfied with the level reached in the last two matches, and that he feels ready to compete, adding that when he feels good like he feels now, he is aware that he can beat anyone.

Words that contrast with what he said after last year's semifinal with Sinner, where not only he said that in that semifinal he had played one of his worst matches of his career at slam level, but he also added that in the whole tournament he had never felt good.
I instead remember that after having suffered more than necessary in the first two rounds, against Etcheverry, Mannarino and Fritz his level expressed was rather convincing.

But aside from this digression, if a Djokovic says he feels good he should be given due credit since he is not a Kyrgios type who when he speaks does it only for air.

Alcaraz is a champion and no one should be surprised if he beats Djokovic and wins the tournament, but in addition to reiterating that I see the Serb as the favorite in Tuesday's match, I also reiterate that some people need to get the last Wimbledon final out of their minds.
Djokovic may lose to Alcaraz on Tuesday, but to beat him the Spaniard will first have to go through hell and to come out of it unscathed he will have to show off his best version of himself.
Djokovic, if he is physically well, has too much solidity and experience to think he can dominate him.
I see this Djokovic as someone who bends but does not break.
TBH no one knows anything about how the match is going to play out.

Djokovic has ATP finals 2023 to back on. Alcaraz has 2 freaking Wimbledon finals although Djokovic last year was not at his best.

That is what everyone likes. The uncertainty.

Raz can win in 4 or Djokovic. It doesn't matter. Both have great chances vs each other.
 

Winner Sinner

Hall of Fame
TBH no one knows anything about how the match is going to play out.

Djokovic has ATP finals 2023 to back on. Alcaraz has 2 freaking Wimbledon finals although Djokovic last year was not at his best.

That is what everyone likes. The uncertainty.

Raz can win in 4 or Djokovic. It doesn't matter. Both have great chances vs each other.
For me, if Djokovic is physically fit, then he is the favorite against Alcaraz on this surface.

Athletic condition that is not in question for the Spaniard, who from what we have seen so far in this tournament on a physical level seems overflowing.
His problem in the matchup with Djokovic is on a tactical and technical level.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
For me, if Djokovic is physically fit, then he is the favorite against Alcaraz on this surface.

Athletic condition that is not in question for the Spaniard, who from what we have seen so far in this tournament on a physical level seems overflowing.
His problem in the matchup with Djokovic is on a tactical and technical level.
Right but alcaraz has stamina advantage.

If raz plays at his best I think he wins but he can try to do showboating a lot and then Djokovic has advantage.

Raz has immature attitude. Let's see..
 
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