Australian Open 2025 QF - [7] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v/s [3] Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (SPN)

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Now since jones and channel 9 have issued apology to novaks camp, i see the fire factor in djokovic would reduce. Him calming down would help alcaraz
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I’d agree as he beat the closest versions to peak/prime Fedal back to back. That said if he was to win against alcaraz, Zverev and sinner in a row and the matches are epics that would be right at the top with that as his best achievement ever. I don’t see it happening though but I’m just delighted he’s in the quarters again. He can still beat lots of players and still at least one of the top 5 players in game at moment.
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You could say so
 
In a very hot day, 90F, 32C, Djokovic will be playing the last match of the day when the temperature will
drop to 68F, 20C.

Alcaraz played 1 night match, 3 day matches, whereas Djokovic played, as usual the night shift 3 out of
4 times.

Djokovic more used to the night time lower bounce.

I think Djokovic has an edge, so he'll end up winning. I hope I'm wrong though.
 
roysid said:
Now since jones and channel 9 have issued apology to novaks camp, i see the fire factor in djokovic would reduce. Him calming down would help alcaraz
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for godsake, Novak's latest soap opera was never going to affect Alcaraz...Carlos is far too experienced in huge matches, especially against Novak, to care
 
If best of three match i think Novak on this surface, could have decent shot of win. However, best of 5 i am not sure old man Novak can hope to go toe to toe with a Alcaraz who is starting to peak.

Novak has to get off to a great start to get the win i think. I will go for Carlos in 4 tough sets
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
Alcaraz is the favourite at this point but Djokovic won’t go down without a fight. He still relatively fresh, rod laver is his favourite court and it is at night. It will be a big battle and should be fun.
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Not a huge factor, guy has the body of a 40 year old. Would be relevant if he was 22-36 years old.

Grand slam, best of 5, alcaraz is the favourite.
 
Halba said:
Not a huge factor, guy has the body of a 40 year old. Would be relevant if he was 22-36 years old.

Grand slam, best of 5, alcaraz is the favourite.
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I said Alcaraz is the favourite but it is better for Djokovic to play him in preferred cooler conditions with slightly lower bounce than during day. I agree though Alcaraz is obviously the favourite.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I said Alcaraz is the favourite but it is better for Djokovic to play him in preferred cooler conditions with slightly lower bounce than during day. I agree though Alcaraz is obviously the favourite.
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I'm watching the de minaur match at night and the court is favouring more counter punchers like Alcaraz and Demon. Michelsen yes is bad but if it's favouring Demon it'll favour Alcaraz
 
Would actually put Djokovic as slight favourite taking all factors into consideration, BUT Alcaraz can definitely take him out if he approaches this match the right way. If it goes the distance, I would favour the Spaniard - hopefully delivers on quality, etc.
 
Breakpointerer said:
Can easily see this turning out like their Cincy final
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Except over five sets I think that would more likely end up an Alcaraz victory. He has deeper wells of stamina to draw from than Novak does these days. Just look at their fifth set at Wimbledon 2023. Djokovic was not depleted at all by his draw coming into the match, but was visibly slower and weaker by the end of the match, while Alcaraz was flying around and exploding into shots like it was still the first set.

If it turns into a physical contest with multiple tight, long sets, it just gets better and better for Alcaraz. Novak needs to overwhelm Alcaraz like he did in Turin if he wants to win.
 
Absolutely fuming that the match is night session (as expected) because I’m stuck in an all day workshop from 8am and the match is scheduled to start at 9ish. Would have worked from home otherwise. Watch this be a 5 hour classic now
 
I do some voluntary work every Tuesday which means I'll have to wait till I get home to watch the replay which means I'll have to keep my phone switched off all day so I'm not tempted to check the score. Very frustrating lol.

Ajde Nole!
 
jl809 said:
Absolutely fuming that the match is night session (as expected) because I’m stuck in an all day workshop from 8am and the match is scheduled to start at 9ish. Would have worked from home otherwise. Watch this be a 5 hour classic now
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That sucks. I’m glad I’m working from home tomorrow. I was in office today, then in wed and Thursday. I will see semis at home too.
 
tudwell said:
Except over five sets I think that would more likely end up an Alcaraz victory. He has deeper wells of stamina to draw from than Novak does these days. Just look at their fifth set at Wimbledon 2023. Djokovic was not depleted at all by his draw coming into the match, but was visibly slower and weaker by the end of the match, while Alcaraz was flying around and exploding into shots like it was still the first set.

If it turns into a physical contest with multiple tight, long sets, it just gets better and better for Alcaraz. Novak needs to overwhelm Alcaraz like he did in Turin if he wants to win.
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I only see Djokovic winning in 4. If it goes to 5, we already know who’s winning
 
GRASScaraz said:
What hype level is this match at?
Madrid 2022? RG 2023? Wimby 2023? Wimby 2024?
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How would you rank these for hype?

Imo it went something like

1. RG 2023 - at the time I went nuts for this as did most of the sub as it was their first clash in a slam, a proper generational battle, Alcaraz was the in form clay guy but Djokovic the co-favourite for the title given his history at RG. In the end we got 2 interesting sets and then it sucked terribly

2. Madrid 2022 - people were hyped for their first meeting for sure especially as Alcaraz was in fantastic form and was coming off beating Rafa. It was intriguing to see how Djoker would handle him. I think people didn't feel Djoker was fully 'back' at that point though (although in the end he played very well)

3. Wimbledon 2024 - people (including me) thought Djoker would play better than in 2023 and that Alcaraz might struggle to replicate his level from 2023 as he had struggled a bit throughout the tournament. So a lot of us were settling in for a long 5 setter again. Djoker had looked great in his previous 2 matches so I had him as favourite

4. Wimbledon 2023 - ironically, along with Madrid 22, this ended up being a 'classic', but before the match I think we all thought Djoker was going to win relatively easily as Alcaraz was still a newbie on grass and he had embarrassed himself with the way the RG semifinal panned out (especially his crap return of serve at RG which boded badly for grass... in the end his return of serve at Wimbledon was incredible in '23 and '24)

I think this match probably has less hype than any of these bar maybe Wimbledon 23, because Djoker is not the force he was in 2022/2023, and Alcaraz's form and recent history in hard court slams has been a bit meh
 
jl809 said:
How would you rank these for hype?

Imo it went something like

1. RG 2023 - at the time I went nuts for this as did most of the sub as it was their first clash in a slam, a proper generational battle, Alcaraz was the in form clay guy but Djokovic the co-favourite for the title given his history at RG

2. Madrid 2022 - people were hyped for their first meeting for sure especially as Alcaraz was in fantastic form and was coming off beating Rafa. It was intriguing to see how Djoker would handle him. I think people didn't feel Djoker was fully 'back' at that point though (although in the end he played very well)

3. Wimbledon 2024 - people (including me) thought Djoker would play better than in 2023 and that Alcaraz might struggle to replicate his level from 2023 as he had struggled a bit throughout the tournament. So a lot of us were settling in for a long 5 setter again. Djoker had looked great in his previous 2 matches so I had him as favourite

4. Wimbledon 2023 - ironically, along with Madrid 22, this was a 'classic', but before the match I think we all thought Djoker was going to win relatively easily as Alcaraz was still a newbie on grass and he had embarrassed himself with the way the RG semifinal panned out (especially his crap return of serve at RG which boded badly for grass... in the end his return of serve at Wimbledon was incredible in '23 and '24)
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Feel like OG match wasn't as hyped for same reasons as Wimby '23
 
FeroBango said:
tbf, the return has been the best part of his game these 4 matches. The new bat helps.
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But the question is, will he let Djok serve on slow-ish HC look like Sampras serve on grass like he did the last time they clashed?

It was so frustrating to see him dump returns into the bottom of the net or wide into the stadium while standing metres behind in that OG final.
 
The QF aspect does lower the stakes however.

Still more important than a Masters Final because Alcaraz needs to equal the H2H again
 
Rafa4LifeEver said:
But the question is, will he let Djok serve on slow-ish HC look like Sampras serve on grass like he did the last time they clashed?

It was so frustrating to see him dump returns into the bottom of the net or wide into the stadium while standing metres behind in that OG final.
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Alcaraz must be the only top, top player whose RoS gets worse on clay compared to other surfaces, it's absolutely ridiculous

maybe Federer too with the BH facing heavy topspin, but at least he had an excuse there of sorts
 
jl809 said:
Alcaraz must be the only top, top player whose RoS gets worse on clay compared to other surfaces, it's absolutely ridiculous

maybe Federer too with the BH facing heavy topspin, but at least he had an excuse there of sorts
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Not just clay, but also on HCs.
He returns way better on grass compared to any other surface.
 
jl809 said:
Alcaraz must be the only top, top player whose RoS gets worse on clay compared to other surfaces, it's absolutely ridiculous

maybe Federer too with the BH facing heavy topspin, but at least he had an excuse there of sorts
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Wtf

Alcaraz is reigning rg champion.

Change the opinion
 
So far, Alcaraz leads 54-39. That sounds about right.

The Vegas odds were:

Djoker: +188
Alcaraz: -210

The Vegas odds line up with TTW’s votes pretty well actually.
 
Djokovic is a different animal in Night sessions on the Rod Laver Arena.
As far as I'm concerned, his only "real" defeat was Wawrinka in 2014.
In 2005 and 2007 he was still a Rookie against Safin and Federer. Was a qualifier in 2005 and hardly top-20 in 2007.
In 2010 he was sick when he lost to Tsonga. He threw up between the 4th and 5th set.
And 2017 was his worst season. Without taking any credit from Istomin, it was the ghost of Djokovic that year.
Other defeats (Roddick, Goldstein, Sinner) were day matches.
Wawrinka really did the unthikable when he beat him in 2014.
Now Djokovic has declined a bit, and Alcaraz has the highest peak when he plays his best tennis. If anyone can do it, it's him.
 
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