Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
This is correct. You have to start out with something that is neutral, and stick to it.If it is factually correct, there is no bad statistics. Each finding will tell you a story. What is important, it is to apply same criteria for all. As an example, if you would like to assess/compare careers in its entirety, you will start from the first official ATP match and end with the last ATP match (first ATP is 1998 for Federer; 2003 for Djkokovic etc.) . If you select a particular period, you need to justify why this period is selected. Lew II does excellent job. What he offers tell many great stories.
I'm not a fan of Lew's stats because I believe he starts out with assumptions and then tries to prove them right.
There are too many variables to be completely objective about assessing careers. First, there is the question of eras, and how things have changed. Comparing Laver against any of the Big Three seems impossible to me because of changes in tech, training, medicine and so on. So I don't even go there. The only thing I look at is how much things have changed so far as winning is concerned. From my own investigations it seems that the way the very top players win games has stayed pretty steady throughout the open era, so you have guys like Borg and Nadal with very similar stats on clay, and guys like Borg, Sampras and Fed very similar on grass. Does that prove anything?
Probably not. It certainly does not mean they play the same way or look the same in videos. How much of that is due to the rackets/strings themselves I don't know.
For this modern era I honestly do not try to prove that any of the Big Three are better overall. That's for history to judge, and it's pointless before they have all ended their careers. But my own stats suggest that Djokovic is the strongest on HCs, career, and that has made Fed fans attack me, thinking that this is the way I want it to be. In my own stats Fed comes out on top on grass, roughly tied with Sampras. Nadal is so superior to everyone on clay, you have to go back to Borg to find a guy who was in his day the same kind of monster on the red stuff.
As for eras, including weak and strong eras, I see no way to prove that the overall talent in any year is stronger or weaker based on the records of the top players that year. It's not like swimming or track, where you can look at the number of people breaking records for speed. I see no way to do anything other than rate the best against the field each year, and let the results speak for themselves.
As for careers, I think it is cherry-picking to pick windows of time. We know Novak is going to look great from 2011 forward, Fed from late 2003-2007, and Nadal is going to be more complicated because of so many years with injuries and his clay dominance. I would personally exclude earlier challenger events, which the ATP does not count, but so far I include everything else, including DC and Olympics. Reason? Probably because it is easier, but it does not change much.
I can tell you that by averaging careers from the very first ATP match things continue to go up for a long time even when players are not quite at their peak level, because any year they are about their career average that career average will go up. In Fed's case that would go up a long time because of weak years on the ATP tour in the beginning, and I'm pretty sure that same thing is true now for Novak. His career average has to balance against his much weaker record through 2010, which is why more than anyone else I see him as having two careers, before and after the gluten solution. There were certainly signs that he could be an amazing player before 2011, and judging only by 2010 is not fair because that year dipped, but if we ran the numbers for the beginning of his career through to 2015, then 2016, then 2017, then 2018, then 2019, I'm not sure what would happen but I suspect his career average would not go lower. For that to happen he'd have to play a lot longer in decline, I think.
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