Beating the best player in the world: Part 2

[drm025]

Expanding from the previous post, here are the W/L records of the Big 4 in grand slams against the best player in the world or the second best player in the world if the Big 4 player was ranked number 1.

Federer: 14 matches (9 finals)
W/L: 5-9 (3-6 in finals)

Nadal: 15 matches (13 finals)
W/L: 10-5 (8-5 in finals)

Djokovic: 12 matches (9 finals)
W/L: 4-8 (3-6 in finals)

Murray: 9 matches (3 finals)
W/L: 2-7 (1-2 in finals)

Nadal seems to be the outlier here and he is the only player to have wins at every slam. Djokovic has wins at every slam except for the French. Murray has wins at the USO and Wimbledon. All of Federer's 5 wins came at Wimbledon, meaning that he has never beaten the number 1 player or the number 2 player under him at a slam outside of Wimbledon. I just find that hard to believe knowing that he has won 17 slams (possibly 18 tomorrow?) and made 25 finals. I think this says something about the consistency of the top players during the majority of Fed's slam wins. Sure, there's nothing he can do about it, but it doesn't change the facts.

 

[Federer20042006]

Yeah, it's a knock against Nadal, since he was the #2 player most of those years.

 

[Russeljones]

Why is Federer's record restricted to the preset day paradigm of the Big 4?

 

[drm025]

Why is Federer's record restricted to the preset day paradigm of the Big 4?

What do you mean? Why am I only comparing to the big 4? For clarification, these wins are not restricted to wins against the Big 4. They are wins against anyone who was number 1 or who was the number 2 when the Big 4 player was number one.

 

[drm025]

Yeah, it's a knock against Nadal, since he was the #2 player most of those years.

Off topic, but therefore it is a knock against Federer because he wasn't close to top 2 at the same age as Nadal.

 

[SpicyCurry1990]

Fed's wins (5)
Wimb 04, 05 over Roddick
Wimb 06, 07 over Nadal
Wimb 12 over Djokovic

Loses (9):
05/06/07/08/11 FO, 08 Wimb, 09/14 AO to Nadal
08 AO to Djokovic

Djokovic
Wins (4)
11 Wimb, 11 USO, 12 AO over Nadal
08 AO over Fed

Loses: (8 )
12,13,14 FO, 13 USO, 10 USO to Nadal
07 USO, 08 AO to Federer
13 Wimb to Murray

Nadal
Wins (10)
05,06,07,08 FO, 08 Wimb, 09 AO over Fed
12,13,14 FO, 13 USO over Djokovic

Loses (5)
06, 07 Wimb to Fed
11 Wimb, 11 USO, 12 AO to Djokovic

Murray
Wins (2)
13 Wimb over Djokovic
08 USO over Nadal

Loses (7?):
10 AO to Federer
10 Wimb, 11 Wimb, 11 FO to Nadal
12 AO, 13 AO to Djokovic

Can't recall Murray's last loss.

Not very surprising. Most of Nadal's dominance comes at the French Open (7-0 there while 3-5 outside of it) and against Federer (8-2 vs Fed, 4-3 vs Djokovic)

 

[drm025]

Fed's wins (5)
Wimb 04, 05 over Roddick
Wimb 06, 07 over Nadal
Wimb 12 over Djokovic

Loses (9):
05/06/07/08/11 FO, 08 Wimb, 09/14 AO to Nadal
08 AO to Djokovic

Djokovic
Wins (4)
11 Wimb, 11 USO, 12 AO over Nadal
08 AO over Fed

Loses: (8 )
12,13,14 FO, 13 USO, 10 USO to Nadal
07 USO, 08 AO to Federer
13 Wimb to Murray

Nadal
Wins (10)
05,06,07,08 FO, 08 Wimb, 09 AO over Fed
12,13,14 FO, 13 USO over Djokovic

Loses (5)
06, 07 Wimb to Fed
11 Wimb, 11 USO, 12 AO to Djokovic

Murray
Wins (2)
13 Wimb over Djokovic
08 USO over Nadal

Loses (7?):
10 AO to Federer
10 Wimb, 11 Wimb, 11 FO to Nadal
12 AO, 13 AO to Djokovic

Can't recall Murray's last loss.

Not very surprising. Most of Nadal's dominance comes at the French Open (7-0 there while 3-5 outside of it) and against Federer (8-2 vs Fed, 4-3 vs Djokovic)

Yes, outside of the French, Nadal's win percentage is still better than Fed's.... I don't see why point that out, but ok.

 

[Federer20042006]

Off topic, but therefore it is a knock against Federer because he wasn't close to top 2 at the same age as Nadal.

Nadal's game was all set when he was a teen. Federer's wasn't - he had talent but didn't know how to use it.

 

[TMF]

What do you mean? Why am I only comparing to the big 4? For clarification, these wins are not restricted to wins against the Big 4. They are wins against anyone who was number 1 or who was the number 2 when the Big 4 player was number one.

It's misleading to include Federer into the mixed with the other 3 who are 6 years younger. Basically you are comparing stats during the period when those 3 are in their prime but Fed was long past his prime.

 

[SpicyCurry1990]

Yes, outside of the French, Nadal's win percentage is still better than Fed's.... I don't see why point that out, but ok.

Compared to Djokovic its not. Outside of the French Djokovic is 4-5, while Nadal is 3-5.

Nadal facing #1 in the world Djokovic outside of the French is 1-3
Djokovic facing #1 in the world Nadal outside of the French is 3-2

The point is, all these stats show is Nadal's dominance at the French and specifically over Fed, which is a well known fact. Compared directly to Djokovic these "beat the #1 player" #s favor Djokovic both head-to-head and vs the field not including RG.

Djokovic vs Nadal is not dominant at all for Nadal, and outside of RG is pretty much dead even.

Head to Head numbers not including Roland Garros
19-17 overall favoring Djokovic
11-5 favoring Djokovic on outdoor hard (69%)
8-4 favoring Nadal on clay (66%)
*2-1 favoring Nadal on grass (66%)
3-2 favoring Djokovic on indoor hard (60%)
3-3 tie in slams

*No meetings since Wimb 11 that Djoker won. Djoker has a 84% match win % on grass since, while Nadal is at 50%

Plus Djokovic has defeated Nadal on every non-RG major court in the world they have played on (All 3 other slams, the World Tour Finals, All Masters except Shanghai where Nadal has never made it to face Djoker).

 

[eldanger25]

Djokovic vs Nadal is not dominant at all for Nadal, and outside of RG is pretty much dead even.

Head to Head numbers not including Roland Garros
19-17 overall favoring Djokovic
11-5 favoring Djokovic on outdoor hard (69%)
8-4 favoring Nadal on clay (66%)
*2-1 favoring Nadal on grass (66%)
3-2 favoring Djokovic on indoor hard (60%)
3-3 tie in slams

*No meetings since Wimb 11 that Djoker won. Djoker has a 84% match win % on grass since, while Nadal is at 50%

Plus Djokovic has defeated Nadal on every non-RG major court in the world they have played on (All 3 other slams, the World Tour Finals, All Masters except Shanghai where Nadal has never made it to face Djoker).

Interesting stuff, but you can't just summarily exclude a major data point like RG, and then do a detailed breakdown. That'd be like me excluding IW 2011-AO 2012 from their rivalry and concluding that bar that nine month stretch, the rivalry is nearly a mirror image of the lopsided Fedal h2h, particularly at the majors:

23-12 Nadal, overall
9-0 Nadal, GS matches
4-0 Nadal, GS finals
10-0 Nadal, Bo5 matches
13-12 Nadal, Bo3 matches
10-5 Nadal, all finals
5-3 Nadal, Masters finals
16-2 Nadal, natural surfaces
10-7 Djokovic, HCs
1-0 Nadal, Davis Cup
1-0 Nadal, Olympics
2-1 Djokovic, YEC

Or, if you'd like, here's the rivalry excluding each man's best data point - IW 2011-AO 2012 and RG:

17-12, Nadal, overall
3-0 Nadal, GS matches
2-0 Nadal, GS finals
4-0 Nadal, Bo5 matches
13-12 Nadal, Bo3 matches
7-5 Nadal, all finals
5-3 Nadal, Masters finals
10-2 Nadal, natural surfaces
10-7 Djokovic, HCs
1-0 Nadal, Davis Cup
1-0 Nadal, Olympics
2-1 Djokovic, YEC

Closer, yes, but still markedly favoring Nadal, particularly at the majors.