Big 3 AO draws

TripleATeam

TripleATeam

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic -
R1: Young
R2: Monfils
R3: Ramos-Vinolas
R4: A. Zverev
QF: Thiem
SF: Federer
F: Dimitrov/Nadal

Federer-
R1: Bedene
R2: Struff
R3: Gasquet
R4: Raonic
QF: Goffin/JMDP/Berdych
SF: Djokovic/Zverev
F: Dimitrov/Nadal

Nadal -
R1: Estrella Burgos
R2: Mayer
R3: Dzumhur
R4: Isner
QF: Cilic
SF: Dimitrov
F: Djokovic/Zverev/Federer

Thoughts? Easy or hard? Predictions for each?
 
First week looks easiest for Nadal, then Federer, then Djokovic. Pretty much to be expected.
Second week looks easiest for Djokovic, then Nadal, then Federer.

If I had to put away my Djokovic fan-cap, then my expected placements are as follows:
Djokovic: SF, but if he gets past Federer then he wins unless his elbow does him in.

Federer: W. With a minefield of a 2nd week, the win will be hard to eke out, but no one can deny he's the favorite.

Nadal: SF. I don't see him beating Dimitrov with the knee. Gasquet hasn't won a set against Nadal in 9 years, but he won in Kooyong the other day. Of course, this can be misleading. Regardless, I expect a Dimitrov win.
 
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Djokovic has the hardest path to the QF, then the easiest potential QF opponent, then God have mercy on his soul.

Federer has the hardest draw, ramping up as the tournament progresses. He will not win it, if this projected draw materialises.

Nadal has a the easiest draw and, unless Dimitrov repeats his performance from last year, will be in the final.

8-)
 
TripleATeam said:
Djokovic -
SF: Federer


Federer-
SF: Djokovic
Click to expand...

Well-Miss-You-Alan-Rickman.gif
 
Gonna include Dimitrov and Zverev so they don't feel too left out...

Dimitrov-
R1: Qualifier
R2: Qualifier
R3: Rublev
R4: Kyrgios
QF: Pouille/Sock/Anderson
SF: Nadal
F: Djokovic/Federer

A. Zverev-
R1: Fabbiano
R2: Gojowczyk
R3: M. Zverev (Fratricide.)
R4: Djokovic
QF: Thiem
SF: Federer
F: Dimitrov/Nadal
 
I'm concerned about Novak's serving. His groundstrokes in the T-Tens looked fine to me but his serve was a fair bit slower. Placement was ok but he's not getting much kick any more with the shortened motion.
Should hold up fine against rallyers and non-elite players, but it'll be tough to get past the best without it clicking.
 
Who the hell is Estrella Burgos?

Both have draws about appropriate with their seedings. All of them avoided the dangerous floaters (Rublev, Shaps, Kyrgios). Federer has the highest chance of getting someone with a pulse in the QF. Djoker-Fed in the semis as per usual.
 
Fed might not win but he should produce an epic masterclass against Gasquet as per usual so we have that to look forward to!
 
Krish872007 said:
I'm concerned about Novak's serving. His groundstrokes in the T-Tens looked fine to me but his serve was a fair bit slower. Placement was ok but he's not getting much kick any more with the shortened motion.
Should hold up fine against rallyers and non-elite players, but it'll be tough to get past the best without it clicking.
Click to expand...
I think it's a lack of match practice and taking it easy on his elbow until he really gets into the swing of things. It won't be as fast, in all likelihood, but I see it getting close to previous speed. Either way, he'll have to ramp things up quite quickly- his first week is nothing to scoff at.
 
On paper it would seem Rafa has the nicest draw - we all know these things can change....It would not surprise me if Rafa/Nole or Fed went out in early rounds or indeed if they won the whole tournament!
 
TripleATeam said:
I think it's a lack of match practice and taking it easy on his elbow until he really gets into the swing of things. It won't be as fast, in all likelihood, but I see it getting close to previous speed. Either way, he'll have to ramp things up quite quickly- his first week is nothing to scoff at.
Click to expand...

Yeah, hope so
 
Dimitrov has the hardest draw.

Is this how they are going to let the next generation(s) take over: by letting them butcher one another before they even reach the "stars"?

8-)
 
Tennis_Hands said:
Dimitrov has the hardest draw.

Is this how they are going to let the next generation(s) take over: by letting them butcher one another before they even reach the "stars"?

:cool:
Click to expand...
If you look at the bright side, that guarantees that at least one of them will probably be able to reach the stars.
 
irishnadalfan1983 said:
On paper it would seem Rafa has the nicest draw - we all know these things can change....It would not surprise me if Rafa/Nole or Fed went out in early rounds or indeed if they won the whole tournament!
Click to expand...

Um, I know you have to try to be "objective." But no way in hell is Nadal losing in the first week playing half his US open draw, plus Estrella and Jarry. Give me a break!:rolleyes:
 
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Thundergod said:
If you look at the bright side, that guarantees that at least one of them will probably be able to reach the stars.
Click to expand...

I would rather see them sink their teeth in the stars while they are fresh and ride on confidence (those who make it) to see where that gets them as the tournament progresses.

:cool:
 
Novak and Fed have about the same difficulty (Its not a difficult draw anyway). Nadal has it a bit more easier. But apart from relative comparisons, all 3 have good draws and unless something goes awfully wrong, they should reach SF pretty comfortably.
 
I reckon, Kyrgios beats Dimitrov in R4, then progresses to SF vs Nadal. Winner of Nadal-Kyrgios SF wins the title.
 
Rafa has an easy draw but his form is questionable and we all know how much he needs confidence these days. I dont believe that Djokovic is going beyond Zverev after being absent for so long + the injury still being active. Big part of the success of the comeback Federer was that he was composed and peacefull while we can hardly say the same for Djokovic.
As for Dimitrov, there is a big chance that he would before the QF. I still couldnt see him as a top 5 whom regulary reaches the QF/SF of the big events.
 
Just at first glance:

Great draw for Nadal.
Novak and Roger both have tough draws on paper.

And I don’t think deeper analysis will change my initial opinion to be honest.
 
If Djoker is healthy and playing well I see no reason he won't make the semis. His draw isn't easy but it's players her can beat without his A game until the semis.

Feds draw is similar he should walk to the 1/4s. Delpo is only threat if Roger isn't healthy.


Rafa? Isner could trouble him. Considering he is one of only 2 players to take rafa to 5 sets at RG you never know what might happen on a fast hard court with that serve. He could also get Kygrios and his game bothers Rafa bad. Semi against Dimi would be tough if they both make it.


All in all I think it depends if the big 3 are healthy more than the draws until the semis.
 
JackGates said:
Why is Kyrgios missing in OP's list? Who has Kyrgios, I guess Nadal, since you are talking about Kyrgios-Nadal.
Click to expand...
Because Kyrgios is in Dimitrov's quarter and I personally expected the 3rd seed and last year's semifinalist to beat the 17th seed and last year 2nd round loser?
 
junior74 said:
Ehem. I think there were a few more five setters at AO17 ;)

What makes you think Dimitrov can repeat that match? He is 10-1 down against Rafa.

If Kyrgios reaches Dimitrov, he takes him out. And K is more dangerous to Nadal IMO.
Click to expand...

Feds 5 setter wasn't a brutal one like Rafa and Dimitrovs and he had an extra day of rest.

Why can dimitrov beat rafa now? Nobody knows rafas form and he is another year older. Dimitrov is playing good tennis.
 
Rafa24 said:
Feds 5 setter wasn't a brutal one like Rafa and Dimitrovs and he had an extra day of rest.

Why can dimitrov beat rafa now? Nobody knows rafas form and he is another year older. Dimitrov is playing good tennis.
Click to expand...

Without pointing out other problems with this post I will just say that within two sentences a vamosalaplayan brought up Nadal's age, but failed to do so with Federer's age, or rather ignored the effects of age.

The ridiculousness doesn't know boundaries with these folks.

:cool:
 
I think Rafa would have prefered Djoko in the semis instead of the reigning WTF champ.
 
Djokovic, understandably, has been dealt with the toughest draw due to his slide down the rankings, much like Federer's draw last year. However, some of those top players may lose early, so you never know what the actual path will look like.
 
Rafa24 said:
If Djoker is healthy and playing well I see no reason he won't make the semis. His draw isn't easy but it's players her can beat without his A game until the semis.

Feds draw is similar he should walk to the 1/4s. Delpo is only threat if Roger isn't healthy.


Rafa? Isner could trouble him. Considering he is one of only 2 players to take rafa to 5 sets at RG you never know what might happen on a fast hard court with that serve. He could also get Kygrios and his game bothers Rafa bad. Semi against Dimi would be tough if they both make it.


All in all I think it depends if the big 3 are healthy more than the draws until the semis.
Click to expand...
Just due to the age of the big 3 I think that's how it'll go in every slam they enter. Just based on form and fitness Fed holds the favourite position for now.

I think thiem takes down Novak in 4 given the lower quality of Novak's serve for now.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
 
Rafa24 said:
Feds 5 setter wasn't a brutal one like Rafa and Dimitrovs and he had an extra day of rest.

Why can dimitrov beat rafa now? Nobody knows rafas form and he is another year older. Dimitrov is playing good tennis.
Click to expand...

Dimitrov lost to Kyrgios in Brisbane, and barely got past Millman and Edmund. Should they meet, Rafa is as big favourite as you can get in a grand slam semifinal. An ATG, ranked #1 in the world against a lost generation player who has reached two slam semis and one quarter in his entire career...
e1TnKhW.gif
 
junior74 said:
Dimitrov lost to Kyrgios in Brisbane, and barely got past Millman and Edmund. Should they meet, Rafa is as big favourite as you can get in a grand slam semifinal. An ATG, ranked #1 in the world against a lost generation player who has reached two slam semis and one quarter in his entire career...
e1TnKhW.gif
Click to expand...
But but but he has the almighty WTF!;)
 
Hnefi said:
Just due to the age of the big 3 I think that's how it'll go in every slam they enter. Just based on form and fitness Fed holds the favourite position for now.

I think thiem takes down Novak in 4 given the lower quality of Novak's serve for now.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Dd you miss Kooyong? Thiem isn't taking down Novak no matter his form.
 
Pagoo said:
Dd you miss Kooyong? Thiem isn't taking down Novak no matter his form.
Click to expand...
IDK what Kooyong is (10 point tiebreaks?), but Thiem managed to take him down at RG last year serving him a bagel in the process... So given the fact that the AO is a much faster court, that favours Novak. But Novak is also not serving with his full motion to protect his elbow... So call it a wash? Not sure but that's my prediction.
 
Hnefi said:
IDK what Kooyong is (10 point tiebreaks?), but Thiem managed to take him down at RG last year serving him a bagel in the process... So given the fact that the AO is a much faster court, that favours Novak. But Novak is also not serving with his full motion to protect his elbow... So call it a wash? Not sure but that's my prediction.
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Last years RG loss to Thiem was Djokovic throwing in the towel, literally. No fight in him. Mentally spent.

I have said it again and again. His elbow is not the problem. Elbow pains are a dime a dozen to pro tennis players.
 
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