Big 3 Draws Discussion

Sephiroth

Professional
Djokovic > Nadal > Fed

Djokovic = easy - mid R1-R4, Stan can catch fire anytime, Querrey servebot
= hardest QF - F

Nadal = hardest R1-R4
= mid QF - F

Federer = easy R1-R4
= hard QF - F

Nad's just a tad tougher than Fed's
 

TripleATeam

Legend
Give me a break lol. Bull has a far tougher R4-QF and maybe even SF. This isn't 2014-16 Stan.
What?
Cilic is doing terribly and Isner can't touch Nadal. Wawrinka has the potential to zone and trouble Djokovic.
Khachanov is about on the same level as Medvedev, Medvedev harder if the last 2 tournaments are anything to go by.
Federer is definitely harder than Thiem.

I will give you the final, though. Djokovic is harder than Nadal.
 

FRV2

Semi-Pro
Give me a break lol. Bull has a far tougher R4-QF and maybe even SF. This isn't 2014-16 Stan.
I think the players Djokovic must face are tough specifically for him and the same can be said for Nadal and the players he faces. But I think Nadal fares better against the field and lucked out by not having Fed in his side of the draw.
 

TheAssassin

Legend
And nobody in the world had any doubts that Djokovic will win. Federer can lead 6-0 in a tiebreak and he will still lose. He is not beating Djokovic ever again, on any court. His last win was in 2015!
In hindsight and when focusing solely on the end result, anyone can be a smartass.
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
People are putting faith in players like KK or Thiem and even Medvedev making it deep into the draw. Slams never work out the way you expect them to, especially with young players. I think the real threats to each draw are ones people aren't overly thinking about. Forget Wawrinka, i think Querrey might be a bigger threat to Djokovic and forget KK or Thiem for Nadal, Verdasco might shock us all. It was only 3 years ago he knocked Nadal out of a slam in the first round. All it would take is a good day for him and a bad day for Nadal.
 

Sephiroth

Professional
Djokovic would do well to win this if opponents play to their expectations ofc

I also think Fed has a better chance in the SF than F vs Djokovic
 

haqq777

Legend
As tradition.

Djokovic:
R1: Carballes Baena
R2: Querrey
R3: Lajovic
R4: Wawrinka
QF: Medvedev
SF: Federer
F: Nadal

Federer:
R1: Qualifier
R2: Dzumhur
R3: Pouille
R4: Goffin
QF: Nishikori
SF: Djokovic
F: Nadal

Nadal:
R1: Millman
R2: Kokkinakis/Qualifier
R3: Verdasco
R4: Isner/Cilic
QF: Khachanov
SF: Thiem
F: Djokovic

Personally, I rate Djokovic's draw as 8.5-9/10. Quite difficult, especially from R4 on. Federer's is really easy until Djokovic. 4/10. Nadal's lacks anyone that can hurt him until the final. 2-3/10.
Nice tradition, love it. Makes it very easy to navigate the draw for me.

Is Kokkinakis main draw WC this year? Or is he a qualifier?
 

TennisFan3

Legend
Thiem would be much more dangerous for him as a semifinal opponent than Federer.
No one would EVER buy that. This is NOT clay.

Even a 38 yr old Fed >>>> Thiem on a hardcourt.

Ask Djokovic and Nadal who they would prefer as a SF opponent b/w Fed and Thiem. It's not even a contest.

Anyway, Nadal's draw is harder until the SF. But then he gets an easier SF compared to Djokovic.

IMO Nadal is the most likely out of the top 3, to NOT make the SF based on the draw.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
This is not Wimbledon, folks!
Federer is still a beast on grass where he can beat almost everyone but on Decoturf he is vulnerable and this is why he has only 1 final there in the last 9 years.
Many players can trouble him, especially at his advanced age.
 
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DSH

Hall of Fame
No one would EVER buy that. This is NOT clay.

Even a 38 yr old Fed >>>> Thiem on a hardcourt.

Ask Djokovic and Nadal who they would prefer as a SF opponent b/w Fed and Thiem. It's not even a contest.

Anyway, Nadal's draw is harder until the SF. But then he gets an easier SF compared to Djokovic.

IMO Nadal is the most likely out of the top 3, to NOT make the SF based on the draw.
who can trouble hime before the sf?
Verdasco?
Isner or Cilic?
Khachanov or Zverev?


:giggle:
 

Djokodal Fan

Hall of Fame
horrible draw for Djokovic. Nadal as usual get a cakewalk draw! Gosh, I don't know how he is going to survive Wawrinka, Medvedev, Fed and Nadal. If he did, I say this is probably the biggest slam win of his career.

Low bouncing , slightly fast USopen surface will be favor Fed in his match up against Djokovic and talk about the rowdy crowd. It's going to be tough!
 

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
Is this the real draw??? I first guessed it was a hoax, because it's so laughable.

My predictions were all correct. They rigged the draw against Djokovic, to make it tough, and for RF, to make it easier for the crowd favourite. Nadal's is also much tougher than RF's,

Federer literally got a who's who of pigeons and underachievers: Goffin, Nishikori and Pouille. I wonder why Gasquet isn't there too.

USO officials couldn't have made their bias and intentions any more obvious. One of the reasons why USO was always my least favourite slam...
 

TennisFan3

Legend
who can trouble hime before the sf?
Verdasco?
Isner or Cilic?
Khachanov or Zverev?
All of the above players you mentioned can at least trouble Nadal. Probably NOT beat him.
It could be a similar scenario like last year, where he plays long 5 setters and then gets injured.

The problem with Nadal on hardcourts is that sometimes he plays too much defense. On grass, he has no choice as it is not possible at all because of the surface.
With hardcourts, Nadal stands EVEN farther back returning serve and then consequently ends up covering way more court. Simple geometry.
He also serves LESS aggressively on hards compared to grass. As the tournament progresses, his match time gets longer and he starts to get more miles in his aging and arthritic knees.

So for instance, Nadal could have something like this:

R1: Millman in 4 sets
R2: Kokkinakis in 3 tight sets
R3: Verdasco in 4 sets.
R4: Cilic in 5 sets
QF: Khachanov in 5 sets

What do you think Nadal will have left for the SF and final? After having played/run close to 20 hours?
That's assuming he doesn't get upset early. I think his days of winning outside of clay are numbered.
His coach was right, ironically, Grass is now Nadal's 2nd best surface. His performance in hardcourt events will go down with time.
 
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TennisFan3

Legend
Is this the real draw??? I first guessed it was a hoax, because it's so laughable.

My predictions were all correct. They rigged the draw against Djokovic, to make it tough, and for RF, to make it easier for the crowd favourite. Nadal's is also much tougher than RF's,

Federer literally got a who's who of pigeons and underachievers: Goffin, Nishikori and Pouille. I wonder why Gasquet isn't there too.

USO officials couldn't have made their bias and intentions any more obvious. One of the reasons why USO was always my least favourite slam...
It does NOT matter how easy Fed's draw is. He is facing the TOUGHEST opponent in the history of tennis in the SF: Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic has made the SF or better in NY in his last 11 appearances. So you can be SURE he will be waiting for Fed in the SF.

So it doesn't matter whether Fed even gets a bye to the SF. He will have to face the World #1 there, and then that would likely be the end of the tournament for the Swiss.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
So much talk about these draws.

But if they play well Fed landing in Djokovic' half is the only thing that matters.

And if they don't play well, it never mattered anyway
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
All of the above players you mentioned can at least trouble Nadal. Probably NOT beat him.
It could be a similar scenario like last year, where he plays long 5 setters and then gets injured.

The problem with Nadal on hardcourts is that sometimes he plays too much defense. On grass, he has no choice as it is not possible at all because of the surface.
With hardcourts, Nadal stands EVEN farther back returning serve and then consequently ends up covering way more court. Simple geometry.
He also serves LESS aggressively on hards compared to grass. As the tournament progresses, his match time gets longer and he starts to get more miles in his aging and arthritic knees.

So for instance, Nadal could have something like this:

R1: Millman in 4 sets
R2: Kokkinakis in 3 tight sets
R3: Verdasco in 4 sets.
R4: Cilic in 5 sets
QF: Khachanov in 5 sets

What do you think Nadal will have left for the SF and final? After having played/run close to 20 hours?
Millman is hard for a first round opponent I will give you that.
Kokkinakis: He is a player whose physique is very fragile. He shouldn't give Nadal any trouble.
Verdasco is finished!
Cilic is almost done too, his forehand is atrocious now and his serve is not the weapon it used to be.
Khachanov's game patterns are predictable, if the Spaniard learned the lesson from last year, the Russian shouldn't give him so many problems in this edition.
 
Djokovic draw:

mug, choker, choking mug, STAN, BSRussian, Fedal

Federer draw:

mug, choking mug, choking mug, choker, QF-man, Djodal

Nadal draw:

mug, mug, choking mug, choking mug, choking mug, lolwot, Djokovic

Nadal's pre-final opponents have a chance only if he plays like sheet OR some of them like Verdasco/Thiem goat above themselves but that is highly unlikely. Cilic and KK could do something but they are guaranteed to choke so they won't.
 

TennisFan3

Legend
Millman is hard for a first round opponent I will give you that.
Kokkinakis: He is a player whose physique is very fragile. He shouldn't give Nadal any trouble.
Verdasco is finished!
Cilic is almost done too, his forehand is atrocious now and his serve is not the weapon it used to be.
Khachanov's game patterns are predictable, if the Spaniard learned the lesson from last year, the Russian shouldn't give him so many problems in this edition.
Good post. That is an OPTIMISTIC way of looking at it.

The more realistic view is that Nadal tends to just extend matches more on hards. He was not supposed to play such long matches last year, but he did.
Again Khachanov's probably improved since last year, so should put up a bigger fight.
Agree on Cillic, Verdasco etc - but trust Nadal to still make a hash of some opportunities, get his serve broken and lose sets.

Let's see how Rafa is playing. My read is that he's still NOT serving big enough, returning well enough, or being aggressive enough -- the attributes that underlined his dream runs in NYC in 2010/2013.
I don't see the same happening, based on how Nadal's been this year, but I'd be happy to be wrong.
 
How exactly does Djokovic has an awful draw? The only potential threat is Med, but he will probably not even get that far. Federer is DEFINITELY a much easier opponent for Djokovic than Thiem right now. Especially after what happened in Wimbledon.
Tough for you to admit your understanding of tennis is krap, isn't it?
 

TennisFan3

Legend
Djokovic draw:

mug, choker, choking mug, STAN, BSRussian, Fedal

Federer draw:

mug, choking mug, choking mug, choker, QF-man, Djodal

Nadal draw:

mug, mug, choking mug, choking mug, choking mug, lolwot, Djokovic

Nadal's pre-final opponents have a chance only if he plays like sheet OR some of them like Verdasco/Thiem goat above themselves but that is highly unlikely. Cilic and KK could do something but they are guaranteed to choke so they won't.
I wouldn't call Thiem a lolwot. But if Nadal can't get to the final with this draw, he is NEVER getting to a non clay slam final.

For Djokovic's draw: I wouldn't pencil Medvedev in the final. He's played an insane amount of tennis, and is due for a dip in slams when the law of averages catches up to him.
I'm anticipating that either Fritz, or Fognini-Opelka will beat Medvedev.
So if Medvedev loses early, Novak gets to the SF sleepwalking.

Fed's draw is probably the easiest until the SF and then it's game over obviously.
 

UnderratedSlam

Hall of Fame
It does NOT matter how easy Fed's draw is. He is facing the TOUGHEST opponent in the history of tennis in the SF: Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic has made the SF or better in NY in his last 11 appearances. So you can be SURE he will be waiting for Fed in the SF.

So it doesn't matter whether Fed even gets a bye to the SF. He will have to face the World #1 there, and then that would likely be the end of the tournament for the Swiss.
It doesn't matter that the draw was rigged?

You can't be serious...
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
Good post. That is an OPTIMISTIC way of looking at it.

The more realistic view is that Nadal tends to just extend matches more on hards. He was not supposed to play such long matches last year, but he did.
Again Khachanov's probably improved since last year, so should put up a bigger fight.
Agree on Cillic, Verdasco etc - but trust Nadal to still make a hash of some opportunities, get his serve broken and lose sets.

Let's see how Rafa is playing. My read is that he's still NOT serving big enough, returning well enough, or being aggressive enough -- the attributes that underlined his dream runs in NYC in 2010/2013.
I don't see the same happening, based on how Nadal's been this year, but I'd be happy to be wrong.


I'm not telling you to be delusional as many are like this here, but to be analytical (and hopefully Nadal's technical team has the necessary tools to evaluate the Spaniard opponents and their game patterns to allow a strategy that avoids long matches in this surface that produces unnecessary injuries, I would say), there are great possibilities this time that the Bull reaches the final without so much effort - that not this Del Potro in the main draw is of great help not only for him but for everyone - and have the mentality necessary to defeat any of those 2 that have brought great problems to him on surfaces that have not been clay.
 

TennisFan3

Legend
I'm not telling you to be delusional as many are like this here, but to be analytical (and hopefully Nadal's technical team has the necessary tools to evaluate the Spaniard opponents and their game patterns to allow a strategy that avoids long matches in this surface that produces unnecessary injuries, I would say), there are great possibilities this time that the Bull reaches the final without so much effort - that not this Del Potro in the main draw is of great help not only for him but for everyone - and have the mentality necessary to defeat any of those 2 that have brought great problems to him on surfaces that have not been clay.
I agree with you. As I said before, if Nadal does NOT make the final with this draw, he is never making the final in a non clay slam again.

That being said, I'd doubt that he will NOT play long matches. I just haven't seen him being aggressive enough and playing big tennis. That is one reason why he was so visibly frustrated while losing to Federer in their Wimbledon SF.
He couldn't fight fire with fire and he wasn't able to bring the firepower and open his shoulders until he got to the last game.

So yeah, let's see what changes Nadal's team has done. But with Rafa, it's more of a case of - the more things change, the more they remain the same. And that would be the long 5 set epic matches that we all love, but Nadal's body probably hates..
 

FRV2

Semi-Pro
I think if Novak is in the zone and plays well like he knows, no one can stop him.
I think most would agree with that, but are expecting a Novak that will at times play at the same level he was playing at in the Wimbledon Finals.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
horrible draw for Djokovic. Nadal as usual get a cakewalk draw! Gosh, I don't know how he is going to survive Wawrinka, Medvedev, Fed and Nadal. If he did, I say this is probably the biggest slam win of his career.

Low bouncing , slightly fast USopen surface will be favor Fed in his match up against Djokovic and talk about the rowdy crowd. It's going to be tough!
I heard it's faster but nothing about the Bouce. Also idk why crowds are brought up when they have never helped fed cross rhe finish line.
 

DSH

Hall of Fame
I agree with you. As I said before, if Nadal does NOT make the final with this draw, he is never making the final in a non clay slam again.

That being said, I'd doubt that he will NOT play long matches. I just haven't seen him being aggressive enough and playing big tennis. That is one reason why he was so visibly frustrated while losing to Federer in their Wimbledon SF.
He couldn't fight fire with fire and he wasn't able to bring the firepower and open his shoulders until he got to the last game.

So yeah, let's see what changes Nadal's team has done. But with Rafa, it's more of a case of - the more things change, the more they remain the same. And that would be the long 5 set epic matches that we all love, but Nadal's body probably hates..
Unfortunately, you are right: Nadal only plays aggressive enough when he is on the ropes:
See the sf against Federer in Wimbledon saving those match points!
:cry:
 

JimJones

Rookie
You have to consider the draws as a whole. In so doing, no way in hell is Nadal's draw tougher than Federer's since Federer has to go through Djokovic.
 

MeatTornado

Legend
horrible draw for Djokovic. Nadal as usual get a cakewalk draw! Gosh, I don't know how he is going to survive Wawrinka, Medvedev, Fed and Nadal. If he did, I say this is probably the biggest slam win of his career.
Wawrinka or Medvedev to save tennis. Fed to beat Rafa in 5 in the final. Circle of life complete.
Stan and Daniil probably won't even make it to Novak, let alone beat him.
 

Imperator

Professional
Djokovic has the toughest draw. Federer's draw is tough just because of Djokovic. Nadal clearly having the easiest draw.
 
I wouldn't call Thiem a lolwot. But if Nadal can't get to the final with this draw, he is NEVER getting to a non clay slam final.

For Djokovic's draw: I wouldn't pencil Medvedev in the final. He's played an insane amount of tennis, and is due for a dip in slams when the law of averages catches up to him.
I'm anticipating that either Fritz, or Fognini-Opelka will beat Medvedev.
So if Medvedev loses early, Novak gets to the SF sleepwalking.

Fed's draw is probably the easiest until the SF and then it's game over obviously.
lolwot referred to the idea of Thiem getting to the SF. Much likely he'd find a way to lose earlier, last year looks like an anomaly given the regression this year after IW.

Fritz is a bit of an unknown quantity, who knows. If Medvedev loses to Fognini/Opelka I will be dsiappointed though, his game is great for taking them apart though for different reasons.
 

hipolymer

Hall of Fame
Dude is done, he won't even sniff getting to Djoker, and will go down in straights if he does. When was the last time he was a threat?
lol, Wawrinka can peak in any match he's motivated to win
Of course Rafa doesn't know anything about that, because players bend over to him ad infinintum
 
lol, Wawrinka can peak in any match he's motivated to win
Of course Rafa doesn't know anything about that, because players bend over to him ad infinintum
It has been 2 and a half years since Wawa was any type of threat. Murray and Wawa have the same amount of QF appearances since 2017...
 
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