Big 3 draws US Open
- Thread starter TripleATeam
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AlexanderTheGreat08
Hall of Fame
Would you rather Djokovic to get Wawrinka or Delpo?
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
He would only have to play one of them in the SF and there's no guarantee Wawrinka will make it. Del Potro is not a problem for Djokovic at the USO so I'm sure he would rather have that than Federer in the QF and then Zverev potentially.
clout
Hall of Fame
Nadal got a good draw here. I like his chances of making at least the semis if not further. Djokovic should have no problem getting through his quarter, but after the quarterfinals, it's gonna get tricky. Federer BY FAR as the toughest draw outta the three. Kyrgios is not a guy he would've liked to see in his quarter and he'll likely meet Djoker in the quarterfinals
AlexanderTheGreat08
Hall of Fame
There’s a more guarantee Wawrinka will make it than Zverev and you know Djokovic doesn’t like to mess around with Wawrinka, Delpo is tougher for Djokovic than Cilic , He likes the Cilic matchup more ,37 year old Federer? The guy that he straight setted in faster conditions is going to win 3 sets against this confident Djokovic is slow HC
WhiskeyEE
G.O.A.T.
It actually seems like the opposite. You're the one who always seems triggered.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Del Potro is not tougher for Djokovic at the USO. Cilic would be more of a problem. Del Potro wasn't even beating 2017 Djokovic and Cilic beat him twice in a row. No one likes to mess around with Wawrinka on a BO5 when he's feeling it except Federer who swats him away without a problem usually. It's still Federer. It won't be easy. It was one of the worst QF opponents to get. How slow is the court though? I heard it was faster this year.
AlexanderTheGreat08
Hall of Fame
The Delpo from before 2017 USO is not the same of today and they only played on clay , Delpo can give Novak a bigger fight and he likes the USO conditions.Wawrinka is trouble for Djokovic, You should be thanking he’s not there , It’s Federer but he’s 37 and can’t win a set against Djokovic in faster conditions and how is he going to be able to win 3 in slower?
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
They played twice on hardcourt last year and once on clay, and Djokovic won them all. He also has never lost a set to Del Potro at the USO in 2 matches. Like I said, he's not a problem for Djokovic there. I would rather have Wawrinka than Federer and Cilic back to back, but it is what it is.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
I wouldn't say his USO draws are lucky, it's more been a matter of the draw falling apart (2017) or his opponents not really showing up (Novak in 2013 mostly)
abmk
Bionic Poster
was delpo even top 20 in USO 2007 ? how on earth is that match even that relevant ?
in 2017, delpo did not play well before US Open.
forgot that he was the one who sent djoko out of Oly in 16 ?
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Well his 2013 draw somewhat fell apart when he was supposed to play Federer in the QF but he ended with Robredo instead. His SF opponent wouldn't have been that difficult either way since it was supposed to Ferrer but he got Gasquet instead. Compare that to Djokovic's 2013 USO draw, he had Del Potro in QF but played Youzhny instead and had Murray in the SF but played Wawrinka. Both halves of the draw fell apart but Nadal still ended up in the less difficult side. His 2017 draw was pretty much a cake walk to the SF.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
Agreed about 2013, but 2017 was just a general cakewalk due to the weak tour. Yeah he got "lucky" in getting delpo in fed's quarter instead of his(he still had Dimitrov in his quarter who people were hyping up remember), and same this year with djoko but it's not like those are some kind of highly unlikely outcomes, basically a coinflip, and I think it would be universal that Dimitrov was more dangerous than Delpo prior to the USO last year. Anyways, all that matters is who you play.
AlexanderTheGreat08
Hall of Fame
But Djokovic wouldn’t rather have Wawrinka instead of Federer, If Cilic goes that far it will be a surprise, No way Cilic beats him
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
On paper Dimitrov looked like the tougher opponent but he has never been beyond the 4th round at the USO. Some were hyping him up but I wasn't. He ended losing in the 2nd round which wasn't a surprise to me really. I would rather draw him at the USO than former champ Del Potro, but the tour was weaker last year with so many withdrawals so the draw wasn't going to be the toughest either way. Yea you only play who is in front of you.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
I'm saying he would rather play Wawrinka instead of playing both Federer/Cilic back to back. It will not be a surprise if Cilic makes it since he's in good form and is a former champ.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
So Del Potro is a "half consistent big hitter". Del Potro took to 5 sets Djokovic in the 2013 Wimbledon SF.
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
Novak isn't like Tsonga or something, if he takes out Federer he will be equally or even more dangerous for Nadal.
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
The same Djokovic who got trashed by Andy freaking Murray. Yeah...
kishnabe
Talk Tennis Guru
If Serena gets the 17th Seed. Djokovic the Wimbledon, Cicinatti champion should be the 4th seed. Zeverev should trades places, as he would fail early again.
Utter nonsense to see a Potential Real Final between Federer/Djokovic in the QF.
At least Nadal draw is not as cakey as 2017, but still cakey....marginally better than Mugu 2010/13 draws.
Utter nonsense to see a Potential Real Final between Federer/Djokovic in the QF.
At least Nadal draw is not as cakey as 2017, but still cakey....marginally better than Mugu 2010/13 draws.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Tony Soprano, sorry I wanted to say Toni Nadal.
Anyhow, forgetting the Tio Toni jokes, Djokovic's draw at the USO 2016 was easier. Crucially, Djokovic's Wimbledon 2018 draw was weaker than Nadal's US Open 2018 draw. Djokovic only had to face Kachanov, Edmund and Nishikori (on grass!) before facing Nadal. And then the famous Anderson. In what sense is that tougher than Nadal's draw? Nadal has to face Edmund, Kachanov, Anderson and DEL POTRO (better than Nishikori) before facing Novak. So since their draws are equal with the difference of Delpo being better than Nishikori, Nadal's USO 2018 draw >>> Djokovic's Wimbledon 2018 draw.Think about it.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
You must have missed his 23 minute practice on Youtube where he nets or hits long 90% of the rally balls, while playing against High School nobodies.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
2012 Murray destroyed Federer in straight sets at the Olympics finals on grass. Yeah...
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Tony Soprano, sorry I wanted to say Toni Nadal.
Think about it.
Djokovic was supposed to face Federer in the final but he got upset. That's Nadal's potential draw, not who he actually has already faced. Having a potential draw with two members in the big 3 in the SF and F is tougher than Nadal's USO draw.
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
Federer's lost to a limping Lleyton Hewitt on grass up to that point and he's only as good as Baghdatis remember?
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Marcos Baghdatis. Yeah, I remember. He won the Australian Open 2006.
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
Baghdatis was a mug and I can admit that but it's a stretch to say he was as good as Fed's real peers is all I'm saying.
It's about as relevant as a 31 year old Federer (who just beat Murray for a Wimbledon title) losing the LOLympics to Murray.
upchuck
Hall of Fame
No way would he prefer this. Djokovic ain't afraid of old-Federer and Cilic, both of whom he beat back-to-back just last week. Cilic over Djokovic in a best of five set match? Can't see it. Ever. Wawrinka, on the other hand, was at times too much for even peak Nole to handle.
I agree with others who say Del Potro is a greater threat to Djokovic than Cilic.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
I am not talking about "potential" draws though, but de facto draws. I am talking about the players he did face. What is the name for that if you don't like the word draw?? Competence? Rivals? You can put it the name that you want, but my point is the same. They had about the same level of competence/draw/rivals.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
Wasn't 31 the new 20s? So Djokovic is young at 31 but Federer is old at 31?
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Wawrinka is not Wawrinka of 2014-2016 though. I doubt he even makes the SF. Yes him at his best would be the tougher scenario but he's not there yet. Even so, that's one potential tough match before the final instead of 2. I don't underestimate Cilic. He played well in Cincy and won this title before so he can get hot. I just think Djokovic matches up well against Del Potro and would handle him on that type of court and I don't think he's that much of a threat. Also, facing Federer is never easy and that still will be a tough match even if Djokovic is the favorite.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
The point I'm making is Djokovic has already gone through his draw, and Nadal hasn't. This is Nadal's potential draw and draws fall apart all the time. He may not even face Anderson or Del Potro, or he may not face Djokovic. So it's incorrect to say his draw was tougher that Djokovic's when he hasn't even played it yet. You can only compare his potential draw to Djokovic's potential draw right now.
Sport
G.O.A.T.
But we can compare their de facto draws a posteriori (when the tournament ends). The a posteriori comparison will be the most relevant to determine which one had it tougher, even though I suspect it will be even.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Yes correct.
Bender
G.O.A.T.
Djokovic's draw isn't that much worse than Nadal's, with the exception of having to play against Fed a round early before Rafa has to play anyone significant--but I think with Fed's draw he's going to be gassed by the time they meet.
Maybe some sort of karmic balance considering his rotten luck at the AO?
mellowyellow
Legend
Wouldn't be a us open if Djoko didnt have to play Fed and Nadal while Nadal plays
upchuck
Hall of Fame
But that's always been the case with Wawrinka: he's never outstanding until he is. I thought he was extremely good in Toronto and Cincinnati, all things considered, and the foundation is there for him to get hot as he did at times while losing to Nadal and Federer in those tournaments.
Moreso than Cilic, Del Potro has had notable victories against Djokovic and tough losses which explains why I find him to be a greater threat. Djokovic beat Cilic in Cincinnati without playing close to his best tennis; imagine what could happen here if he meets him in the semis.
As for Federer, I get it, it's Fed. But the trend-lines in that rivalry have been clear for some time now. It's a big ask for Fed because he seems to unravel mentally when he sees Djokovic on the other side of the net.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Yes he was good in those tournaments and his game is definitely starting to come back together but then you have to look at his draw as well. He has Dimitrov in the first round then looking at Raonic in the 3rd round, then Isner and then Del Potro. I doubt Wawrinka comes through that and I expect Del Potro to.
Cilic played well in Toronto and Cincy as well and Djokovic had to elevate his game to send him packing. It was not that easy. He didn't play his best in that 2nd set but still Cilic was blasting off the ground. Cilic also played well against him in Queens. In the past, Cilic was not much a threat to Djokovic but these things change and I can see in his game that he is dangerous. He also gave Nadal all he could handle in Toronto. Del Potro may have some notable victories against Djokovic but none recently and Djokovic crushed him there in 2012. He doesn't worry me that much because of the match up.
It's Federer so I still don't underestimate him. This is going to be a battle either way if that match happens and Djokovic has to expect that regardless of what happened in Cincy.
metsman
Talk Tennis Guru
2013 Delpo had something of a backhand and a big hitter taking Djokovic 5 is not breaking news on grass.
D
Deleted member 307496
Guest
Federer was from a prior generation where being finished at even 25 wasn't unusual or unheard of. He wasn't "old" in the traditional sense, but he was probably like later prime Sampras (during that period) in that he could be beaten in the smaller events but peaked for the bigger ones.
sbengte
G.O.A.T.
I need to see a table comparing the draws the big 3/big 4 got at the USO over the last decade side by side. Calling the stats guy @falstaff78
HetTheGreaterer
Banned
Man, djokovic is not at the physical level he should be, to grind out in a BO5 with nadal.
Grass is soft for body and also not a grinding surface, still he barely got past nadal.
It will not be an easy road for djokovic if he faces fed, cillic in QF-SF and then Nadal in Final (coming from cakewalk ofc)
We had not seen the fedovic matchup on grass after 2015.
If fed had converted that m.p. Vs anderson of all people, I am sure we would have got very tough match in fedovic final, with slight advantage to federer. Remember well, anderson was smoked by djoker mostly due to mental issues, and still managed to push him in last set
D
Deleted member 716271
Guest
For fellow gambling degenerates,
Odds post draw:
Djokovic 13/5
Nadal 4/1
Federer 6/1
Double Chance (meaning either one can be the winner for you to win)
Djokovic or Nadal 5/6
My favorite bet, triple chance, any one of Djoko/Nad/Fed to win 4/9!
Not a bad yield for basically free money.
Odds post draw:
Djokovic 13/5
Nadal 4/1
Federer 6/1
Double Chance (meaning either one can be the winner for you to win)
Djokovic or Nadal 5/6
My favorite bet, triple chance, any one of Djoko/Nad/Fed to win 4/9!
Not a bad yield for basically free money.
Charleneriva
Hall of Fame
This thread is BigFourist. Repoarted.
For Djokovic's seed, and given Federer's recent form his draw is actually easier than Nadal's. It was the same at Wimbledon too. Nadal had to beat Del Potro before playing Djokovic. If the situation was reversed, who knows it probably would have been Nadal lifting the trophy. Remember 2013 when Del Potro emptied his tank before playing Murray in the final? Djokovic is getting some really favorable draws despite his low seeds this year, you shouldn't be complaining about Nadal.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Rafa did not have an easier draw at Wimbledon. He didn't play anyone in the top 70 in the 1st four rounds. He breezed to the QF. Del Potro was his first real challenge. Also, Djokovic's USO draw is not easier than Nadal's. No way is Anderson a tougher QF opponent than Federer, regardless of how his form was in Cincinnati.
Djokovic's Wimbledon draw was definitely easier than Nadal's. None of the opponents he played before facing Nadal would have troubled Nadal. I agree that Nadal did avoid players who could trouble him on grass in early rounds but that's about it. He has been getting them regularly since 2012 so it was just a law of averages. But from QF onward Nadal had the tougher draw. He got the toughest possible QF opponent, even you would agree that Del Potro would have been a lot tougher for Djokovic than Nishikori. And look at Djokovic's seed and Nadal's. Lower seeds usually get tougher draws, he got incredibly lucky at Wimbledon and even in the final he got someone who played 7 hours in semi. For his seed Djokovic is getting some incredible draws this year, you can't deny it. I wouldn't cry about Nadal who's the #1 seed if I was a Djokovic fan. As for playing Federer, Djokovic would prefer to play him (given his current form) in QF over 2 of the other 3 options, Nadal and Del Potro. Only Zverev would have been easier.
The comparison between Anderson and Federer doesn't even arise because Nadal can't play Federer in QF.
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