Big 3 Finals - Opponents Elo Rating Analysis

[FedeRadi]

Goating Opponents (>2500) (2-6):
Nadal 2-1
2007 RG Federer, 2014 RG Djokovic, 2011 USO Djokovic
Djokovic 0-2
2007 USO Federer, 2013 USO Nadal
Federer 0-3
2014 WIM Djokovic, 2015 WIM Djokovic, 2015 USO Djokovic

Very Hard Opponents (2450-2500) (5-6):
Nadal 3-4
2006 RG Federer, 2012 RG Djokovic, 2013 USO Djokovic, 2006 WIM Federer, 2007 WIM Federer, 2011 WIM Djokovic, 2012 AO Djokovic
Djokovic 2-2
2011 WIM Nadal, 2015 USO Federer, 2012 RG Nadal, 2014 RG Nadal
Federer 0-0

Hard Opponents (2400-2450) (11-5):
Nadal 3-1
2008 WIM Federer, 2008 RG Federer, 2011 RG Federer, 2019 AO Djokovic
Djokovic 6-1
2011 USO Nadal, 2012 AO Nadal, 2016 AO Murray, 2015 WIM Federer, 2016 RG Murray, 2019 AO Nadal, 2010 USO Nadal
Federer 2-3
2006 WIM Nadal, 2007 WIM Nadal, 2008 WIM Nadal, 2009 AO Nadal, 2011 RG Nadal

Medium Opponents (2300-2400) (10-8):
Nadal 3-1
2009 AO Federer, 2010 USO Djokovic, 2013 RG Ferrer, 2017 AO Federer
Djokovic 5-2
2011 AO Murray, 2013 AO Murray, 2014 WIM Federer, 2015 AO Murray, 2019 WIM Federer, 2012 USO Murray, 2013 WIM Murray
Federer 2-5
2010 AO Murray, 2012 WIM Murray, 2006 RG Nadal, 2007 RG Nadal, 2008 RG Nadal, 2009 USO Del Potro, 2019 WIM Djokovic

Easy Opponents (2200-2300) (15-3):
Nadal 4-1
2010 RG Soderling, 2017 RG Wawrinka, 2019 RG Thiem, 2019 USO Medvedev, 2014 AO Wawrinka
Djokovic 2-2
2018 USO Del Potro, 2020 AO Thiem, 2015 RG Wawrinka, 2016 USO Wawrinka
Federer 9-0
2004 USO Hewitt, 2004 WIM Roddick, 2005 USO Agassi, 2005 WIM Roddick, 2007 AO Gonzalez, 2007 USO Djokovic, 2008 USO Murray, 2009 WIM Roddick, 2017 AO Nadal

Mug Opponents (< 2200) (13-0):
Djokovic 2-0
2008 AO Tsonga, 2018 WIM Anderson
Federer 7-0
2003 WIM Philippoussis, 2004 AO Safin, 2006 AO Baghdatis, 2006 USO Roddick, 2009 RG Soderling, 2017 WIM Cilic, 2018 AO Cilic
Nadal 4-0
2005 RG Puerta, 2010 WIM Berdych, 2017 USO Anderson, 2018 RG Thiem

Some thoughs:
-Opponent level matters, there is a strong correlation between opponent's Elo and Win Rate for big 3.
There are some strange results: i.e. I don't think there was 2 tier difference between 2013 Ferrer and 2018 Thiem. But the approximation is good.
-Federer has a lot of finals versus Mugs/Easy opponents, but he's insanely consistent vesus them(16-0). Rafa and Nole has some losses versus this type of opponents, in less games.
He was also atrocious versus medium or better opponents(4-11), his most difficult wins were versus 20/21yo Nadal and prime Murray.
-Nadal was so good at RG that he was the only big 3 who can beat opponents in goating shape.
-Djokovic was really good in Medium+ Finals. But he could do better versus easy opponents and mugs: 4-2 here is pretty bad, although 6 match is small sample.

Other ideas and observations?

 

[ABCD]

Goating Opponents (>2500) (2-6):
Nadal 2-1
2007 RG Federer, 2014 RG Djokovic, 2011 USO Djokovic
Djokovic 0-2
2007 USO Federer, 2013 USO Nadal
Federer 0-3
2014 WIM Djokovic, 2015 WIM Djokovic, 2015 USO Djokovic

Very Hard Opponents (2450-2500) (5-6):
Nadal 3-4
2006 RG Federer, 2012 RG Djokovic, 2013 USO Djokovic, 2006 WIM Federer, 2007 WIM Federer, 2011 WIM Djokovic, 2012 AO Djokovic
Djokovic 2-2
2011 WIM Nadal, 2015 USO Federer, 2012 RG Nadal, 2014 RG Nadal
Federer 0-0

Hard Opponents (2400-2450) (11-5):
Nadal 3-1
2008 WIM Federer, 2008 RG Federer, 2011 RG Federer, 2019 AO Djokovic
Djokovic 6-1
2011 USO Nadal, 2012 AO Nadal, 2016 AO Murray, 2015 WIM Federer, 2016 RG Murray, 2019 AO Nadal, 2010 USO Nadal
Federer 2-3
2006 WIM Nadal, 2007 WIM Nadal, 2008 WIM Nadal, 2009 AO Nadal, 2011 RG Nadal

Medium Opponents (2300-2400) (10-8):
Nadal 3-1
2009 AO Federer, 2010 USO Djokovic, 2013 RG Ferrer, 2017 AO Federer
Djokovic 5-2
2011 AO Murray, 2013 AO Murray, 2014 WIM Federer, 2015 AO Murray, 2019 WIM Federer, 2012 USO Murray, 2013 WIM Murray
Federer 2-5
2010 AO Murray, 2012 WIM Murray, 2006 RG Nadal, 2007 RG Nadal, 2008 RG Nadal, 2009 USO Del Potro, 2019 WIM Djokovic

Easy Opponents (2200-2300) (15-3):
Nadal 4-1
2010 RG Soderling, 2017 RG Wawrinka, 2019 RG Thiem, 2019 USO Medvedev, 2014 AO Wawrinka
Djokovic 2-2
2018 USO Del Potro, 2020 AO Thiem, 2015 RG Wawrinka, 2016 USO Wawrinka
Federer 9-0
2004 USO Hewitt, 2004 WIM Roddick, 2005 USO Agassi, 2005 WIM Roddick, 2007 AO Gonzalez, 2007 USO Djokovic, 2008 USO Murray, 2009 WIM Roddick, 2017 AO Nadal

Mug Opponents (< 2200) (13-0):
Djokovic 2-0
2008 AO Tsonga, 2018 WIM Anderson
Federer 7-0
2003 WIM Philippoussis, 2004 AO Safin, 2006 AO Baghdatis, 2006 USO Roddick, 2009 RG Soderling, 2017 WIM Cilic, 2018 AO Cilic
Nadal 4-0
2005 RG Puerta, 2010 WIM Berdych, 2017 USO Anderson, 2018 RG Thiem

Some thoughs:
-Opponent level matters, there is a strong correlation between opponent's Elo and Win Rate for big 3.
There are some strange results: i.e. I don't think there was 2 tier difference between 2013 Ferrer and 2018 Thiem. But the approximation is good.
-Federer has a lot of finals versus Mugs/Easy opponents, but he's insanely consistent vesus them(16-0). Rafa and Nole has some losses versus this type of opponents, in less games.
He was also atrocious versus medium or better opponents(4-11), his most difficult wins were versus 20/21yo Nadal and prime Murray.
-Nadal was so good at RG that he was the only big 3 who can beat opponents in goating shape.
-Djokovic was really good in Medium+ Finals. But he could do better versus easy opponents and mugs: 4-2 here is pretty bad, although 6 match is small sample.

Other ideas and observations?

Is this ELO on the day of play? Great idea. I would just use more polite words instead "easy" and "mug". Also justify making 2400-2500 range in 2 categories (why it is not 1 category). Also, it would be good to have average ELO rating of all opponents. Good job.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Federer thriving on weak competition. Never in doubt, really.
Where would Federer be without easy and mug opponents? Probably selling cheese in some village in Switzerland.

 

[FedeRadi]

Is this ELO on the day of play? Great idea. I would just use more polite words instead "easy" and "mug". Also justify making 2400-2500 range in 2 categories (why it is not 1 category). Also, it would be good to have average ELO rating of all opponents. Good job.

I'm not English native speaker, and my vocabulary is pretty poor. I don't want to be disrepectful with these players(I like a lot some of them, like Tsonga). If you have any advice to how to call that categories, I'll go to edit.


I splitted 2400-2500 range because I thought 27 matches was too much in a single category.

Average ELO:
Nadal: 2357 (Only wins 2323, only losses 2437)
Djokovic: 2367 (Only wins 2347, only losses 2406)
Federer: 2306 (Only wins 2235, only losses 2436)

 

[Lew II]

A new great user

GS score vs Elo >2400:

Djokovic 13-10
Nadal 11-7
Federer 5-11

 

[junior74]

ELO was a great band, adjusted. I would rank them higher among bands than I would rate Raonic among tennis players.

Ticket to The Moon is just one example of Lynne's song writing prowess.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Do you seriously believe 2016 AO Murray and 2013 RG Ferrer > 2009 AO Federer and 2015 RG Wawrinka?? how could one be so thick?

I mean isn't that stupidarious that Djokovic is 6-2 against "hard opponents" but 2-2 against "easy opponents"? Wouldn't the obvious suggestion be that the hard opponents weren't so hard and the easy weren't so easy??

 

[PerilousPear]

Do you seriously believe 2016 AO Murray and 2013 RG Ferrer > 2009 AO Federer and 2015 RG Wawrinka?? how could one be so thick?

Not really his fault. He based it off ELO, and it's a flawed metric.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Not really his fault. He based it off ELO, and it's a flawed metric.

Which should be immediately obvious that it's not fit to measure tournament-specific level in any way, was never meant for it even. What sort of person can't bear to acknowledge that.

 

[vex]

2008 Tsonga was a mug... k
The 2014 and 15 Stans were “easy” opponents... k. That version of Stan beat a solid Rafa (don’t tell me he was injured sorry) and one of the Best versions of Djoker... right there alone this whole post falls apart

 

[Lew II]

"#17 Federer won the Sunshine Double. OMG delete the ATP ranking. it's useless"

This will be the level of the answers to the thread.

 

[TheAssassin]

Djokovic was goating in 2014 Roland Garros while he was only a hard opponent in 2019 AO. Makes sense.

 

[tennisaddict]

Andy Murray being hard opponent and Nadal being easy opponent - Lew never fails to deliver.

Same Lew dump every day.

 

[ABCD]

I'm not English native speaker, and my vocabulary is pretty poor. I don't want to be disrepectful with these players(I like a lot some of them, like Tsonga). If you have any advice to how to call that categories, I'll go to edit.


I splitted 2400-2500 range because I thought 27 matches was too much in a single category.

Average ELO:
Nadal: 2357 (Only wins 2323, only losses 2437)
Djokovic: 2367 (Only wins 2347, only losses 2406)
Federer: 2306 (Only wins 2235, only losses 2436)

I would just use numbers without qualifying them.

 

[Dekalog12]

There are some strange results: i.e. I don't think there was 2 tier difference between 2013 Ferrer and 2018 Thiem. But the approximation is good.

The average ELO for Thiem in his 13 matches against Nadal since 2016 (i.e. ignoring their RG 2014 2nd Round Match) is 2141. The same for Ferrer versus Rafa from 2011-2015 (16 matches) is 2258.

Using your terminology Thiem was a 'mug' opponent 10 times and 3 times he just about managed to cross the border to 'easy' - RG 2017 (2210), RG 2019 (2217) and AO 2020 (2207).

Ferrer on the other hand was a 'mug' opponent once, 'easy' opponent 10 times and 'medium' opponent 5 times. His ELO was below Thiem's best of 2217 only three times - AO 2011 (2188), Monte Carlo 2011 (2208) and Monte Carlo 2014 (2203).

 

[Sport]

Good thread. OP admits that ELO is not perfect (as he acknowledges some disparities like 2013 Ferrer being two tiers above 2018 Thiem, or 2016 Murray being over 2009 Federer). However, it illustrates an undeniable overall pattern: Federer beat, on average, easier opponents than Nadal and Djokovic in Grand Slam finals.