Meles
Bionic Poster
Time to see if the NextGen C team really has any potential in the upcoming Diamond Age.
Though they've overshadowed Safin
, not until the last few days have I even countenanced the twin towers possibly surpassing Cilic:
They are both white hot on tour right now, so time to compare Medvedev and Khachanov to slam winner Cilic.
My eyeball take:
1. Both Russians have marginally better footwork from the ground. Medvedev is a wall and only had 7 UEs in Tokyo final versus Nishikori making him the most consistent easily of the three. Khachanov played paddy cake from the ground with Nadal for 4 hours and 20 minutes over just 4 sets at the US Open, something Marin probably not quite there on.
2. Serve is definitely Cilic given his all time high at 2014 US Open, but Medvedev has gone from zero to hero over the last few months and Khachanov's big rankings move this year has been fueled by an improved serve game.
3. Cilic has an excellent return for his size and I think he's got both of them, but Medvedev has been putting up some numbers lately.
Now for the stats and here we go back in time for just Marin's early years which include a very, very solid 2009 so he's not late bloomer which is no surprise as its often the case tall players tend to have success earlier because of better serving helping their efficiency at majors and in deep runs at tournaments.
Cilic's 2008, 20th birthday (September), finished the year ranked 25th with a mighty 38.6% return points won, 64.8% on serve points, and 51.4% for all hard court points.
Cilic's 2009 at age 21 had him at 65.8% serve points won and a whopping 39.6% on return points for a nice 52.3% for all hard courts.
Cilic 2010 at age 22 65.9%, 39.2% return for 51.8% points won. (As a big follower of early NextGen stats I can say these return numbers for such a tall player really boded well, but only 65.9% on serve points was decidedly weak. As we've found out Marin has upped his serve over the years to better levels which is the normal pattern.)
{Since his early years Marin has won 52% to 53% of hard court points each year, typically not good enough to win a slam)
Med's 2016, mainly challenger level. 20th birthday February. 53.4% points won for the year fueled by whopping 43.8% on return points
Medvedev 2017 at age 21 61.3% on serve points and only 35.9% on return for 49.0% points won
Med 2018 at age 22 65.4% on serve points won and a nice 37.8% on return for 51.4%, clearly a notch below Cilic.
Khach 2016, 20th birthday May, 51.7% points won for year fueled by 68.0% serve points won, but like Medvedev too many challenger level matches to compare with Cilic
Khachanov 2017 at age 21, just 63.9% on serve and a lowish 34.7% on return for 49.3% points won
Khach 2018 at age 22, an excellent 68.5% on serve points won with 36.5% on return, a much needed improvement. 52.4% points won eclipses Cilic
Hot periods:
If we take Medvedev from Winston-Salem onwards this year he's a mighty 67.6% on serve, 40.1% on return, and 53.5% for points won on hard courts.
Cilic had a nice run in late 2009 from US Open onward where he was 65.8% on serve, 41.1% on return for 53.1% points won
Khach since the start of Rogers Cup this year is 69.7% on serve points won, 36.5% on return for 53.0% points won on hard courts.
Other surfaces:
Before this year I would have said Khachanov was better on grass and clay, but he doesn't have the stats for grass despite making R16 Wimbledon. R16 Roland Garros with 51.4% points won, but only 64.3% serve points won.
Medvedev has been good on grass, but was injured in 2018 which leaves 2017 with a solid 51.8% points won. Medvedev has been awful on clay.
Cilic of course is one of the favorites on grass now. Marin has been 53.4% to 54.7% the last three years on grass (best period of his career). In 2008 he had 51.5% points won on grass. Marin had impressive 53.3% points won on clay in 2009. He never really got above 52% again until the last few years where he was an amazing 55.3% points won in 2017 and 53.3% again this year. Might as well look at Cilic's best hard court years and he's generally been close or not much above 38.0% return points won on hard courts, but he's at just over 39% this year. Hard court serve points won have never gotten better than 67% most years, but 2016 was 67.9% and 2018 so far is 68.4%
When you look at top tier slam players Roddick's return on hard courts is the acid test. If you're a big server and return worse than Roddick then life is going to be very difficult winning majors. Roddick in 2006 and 2009 was around 37% on return points won. 2004 was 38%. Often as low as 35%, Roddick dipped to 33.2% in 2012 and wisely retired at the US Open. We see with Cilic he's been a couple percent better than Roddick on hard court return which is like two levels better which is why he's had some good slam results despite not having near the serve game. Marin got red hot on serve at 2014 US Open and won it.
For Khachanov his outlook is very, very good and his 52.4% won on hard courts rates better than Cilic in 2009 and his serve game has clearly been superior which will help Khach immensely at slams. But Khachanov has Roddick's problem, his return game. That's why the jump to 36.5% on hard return is so important. Its probably not quite enough, so 2019 will be critical for Karen on hard courts. He'll be turning 23 and it may be his last year where he's got a chance to up his return level before he gets past his speed prime and his numbers level off. Cilic is typical for really any tall hard court player with his best return numbers at age 22, 23, and 24 and then a leveling off just below this. So despite a better serve game for Khachanov, it looks like his return game will hold him back unless he can get up a good bit above 37.0% in 2019.
Medvedev is very close to Cilic with a similar return level so amazingly (because we never really saw it until this Summer) he's got a real chance to win slams in the upcoming years. Though not Cilic 2014 US Open level serving, Med was impressive in his recent Tokyo title run where he won 74.6% of serve points in the main draw and 41.1% of return points for a whopping 57.5% of points at the event. Not aware of a Cilic tournament win with these kind of numbers.
CONCLUSION: Medvedev is suddenly very comparable to Cilic. Khachanov is too with this better serve game at a young age and his 69.7% points won on serve is on par with Cilic's 2014 US Open run where he was 70.1% serve points won for the event. Khachanov unlikely to win a slam unless his return level jumps again next year.
@Gary Duane
Though they've overshadowed Safin
, not until the last few days have I even countenanced the twin towers possibly surpassing Cilic:
They are both white hot on tour right now, so time to compare Medvedev and Khachanov to slam winner Cilic.
My eyeball take:
1. Both Russians have marginally better footwork from the ground. Medvedev is a wall and only had 7 UEs in Tokyo final versus Nishikori making him the most consistent easily of the three. Khachanov played paddy cake from the ground with Nadal for 4 hours and 20 minutes over just 4 sets at the US Open, something Marin probably not quite there on.
2. Serve is definitely Cilic given his all time high at 2014 US Open, but Medvedev has gone from zero to hero over the last few months and Khachanov's big rankings move this year has been fueled by an improved serve game.
3. Cilic has an excellent return for his size and I think he's got both of them, but Medvedev has been putting up some numbers lately.
Now for the stats and here we go back in time for just Marin's early years which include a very, very solid 2009 so he's not late bloomer which is no surprise as its often the case tall players tend to have success earlier because of better serving helping their efficiency at majors and in deep runs at tournaments.
Cilic's 2008, 20th birthday (September), finished the year ranked 25th with a mighty 38.6% return points won, 64.8% on serve points, and 51.4% for all hard court points.
Cilic's 2009 at age 21 had him at 65.8% serve points won and a whopping 39.6% on return points for a nice 52.3% for all hard courts.
Cilic 2010 at age 22 65.9%, 39.2% return for 51.8% points won. (As a big follower of early NextGen stats I can say these return numbers for such a tall player really boded well, but only 65.9% on serve points was decidedly weak. As we've found out Marin has upped his serve over the years to better levels which is the normal pattern.)
{Since his early years Marin has won 52% to 53% of hard court points each year, typically not good enough to win a slam)
Med's 2016, mainly challenger level. 20th birthday February. 53.4% points won for the year fueled by whopping 43.8% on return points
Medvedev 2017 at age 21 61.3% on serve points and only 35.9% on return for 49.0% points won
Med 2018 at age 22 65.4% on serve points won and a nice 37.8% on return for 51.4%, clearly a notch below Cilic.
Khach 2016, 20th birthday May, 51.7% points won for year fueled by 68.0% serve points won, but like Medvedev too many challenger level matches to compare with Cilic
Khachanov 2017 at age 21, just 63.9% on serve and a lowish 34.7% on return for 49.3% points won
Khach 2018 at age 22, an excellent 68.5% on serve points won with 36.5% on return, a much needed improvement. 52.4% points won eclipses Cilic
Hot periods:
If we take Medvedev from Winston-Salem onwards this year he's a mighty 67.6% on serve, 40.1% on return, and 53.5% for points won on hard courts.
Cilic had a nice run in late 2009 from US Open onward where he was 65.8% on serve, 41.1% on return for 53.1% points won
Khach since the start of Rogers Cup this year is 69.7% on serve points won, 36.5% on return for 53.0% points won on hard courts.
Other surfaces:
Before this year I would have said Khachanov was better on grass and clay, but he doesn't have the stats for grass despite making R16 Wimbledon. R16 Roland Garros with 51.4% points won, but only 64.3% serve points won.
Medvedev has been good on grass, but was injured in 2018 which leaves 2017 with a solid 51.8% points won. Medvedev has been awful on clay.
Cilic of course is one of the favorites on grass now. Marin has been 53.4% to 54.7% the last three years on grass (best period of his career). In 2008 he had 51.5% points won on grass. Marin had impressive 53.3% points won on clay in 2009. He never really got above 52% again until the last few years where he was an amazing 55.3% points won in 2017 and 53.3% again this year. Might as well look at Cilic's best hard court years and he's generally been close or not much above 38.0% return points won on hard courts, but he's at just over 39% this year. Hard court serve points won have never gotten better than 67% most years, but 2016 was 67.9% and 2018 so far is 68.4%
When you look at top tier slam players Roddick's return on hard courts is the acid test. If you're a big server and return worse than Roddick then life is going to be very difficult winning majors. Roddick in 2006 and 2009 was around 37% on return points won. 2004 was 38%. Often as low as 35%, Roddick dipped to 33.2% in 2012 and wisely retired at the US Open. We see with Cilic he's been a couple percent better than Roddick on hard court return which is like two levels better which is why he's had some good slam results despite not having near the serve game. Marin got red hot on serve at 2014 US Open and won it.
For Khachanov his outlook is very, very good and his 52.4% won on hard courts rates better than Cilic in 2009 and his serve game has clearly been superior which will help Khach immensely at slams. But Khachanov has Roddick's problem, his return game. That's why the jump to 36.5% on hard return is so important. Its probably not quite enough, so 2019 will be critical for Karen on hard courts. He'll be turning 23 and it may be his last year where he's got a chance to up his return level before he gets past his speed prime and his numbers level off. Cilic is typical for really any tall hard court player with his best return numbers at age 22, 23, and 24 and then a leveling off just below this. So despite a better serve game for Khachanov, it looks like his return game will hold him back unless he can get up a good bit above 37.0% in 2019.
Medvedev is very close to Cilic with a similar return level so amazingly (because we never really saw it until this Summer) he's got a real chance to win slams in the upcoming years. Though not Cilic 2014 US Open level serving, Med was impressive in his recent Tokyo title run where he won 74.6% of serve points
in the main draw and 41.1% of return points for a whopping 57.5% of points at the event. Not aware of a Cilic tournament win with these kind of numbers.CONCLUSION: Medvedev is suddenly very comparable to Cilic. Khachanov is too with this better serve game at a young age and his 69.7% points won on serve is on par with Cilic's 2014 US Open run where he was 70.1% serve points won for the event. Khachanov unlikely to win a slam unless his return level jumps again next year.
@Gary Duane
