.....the forehand, obviously. Nothing new here, but given the recent news, I see a lot of Murray apologists touting his game as on par with the big 3. Federer is just a completely different player from the rest of the big 4, so it’s not that useful comparing Muzz to Federer. On the other hand, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are much closer in terms of style and ability which makes comparing them far more straightforward.
As such, examining his strengths and weaknesses relative to those two, what stands out the most is Murray’s forehand. For all the talk of Nadal and Djokovic’s defensive prowess and court coverage, Murray was never that far behind in those departments. However, along perhaps with mental grit, the true difference between Murray and those two other players is that Murray lacked a truly formidable forehand.
Djokovic is a world class server, has goat class backhand, and has an underrated forehand that does enormous damage. Nadal and Federer, along with many other strengths, have probably the best forehands of all time. Murray, on the other hand, was very good in every category but outstanding in none, especially on the forehand wing.
People chalk Murray’s reliance on a grinding game alternatively to some kind of mental blockage or to some masterful tactical insight that allowed him to compete with the best. But really, he had no choice given his lack of a killer forehand. This is why he has as many slams as Stan. Stan might be weaker in every department than Murray, but his forehand, when on, is so monstrous it can hit anyone off the court.
Tl/dr: Murry’s career was held back by a relatively lackluster forehand.
In TT speak: Murray’s forehand suuuuucks!
Honestly, Murray would be a much better player if he just played more aggressively like his rivals. The real thing that separates Murray from the other three is that Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal are willing to go big on big points. Murray defaults to playing passive and second guessing himself about as much as old Federer defaulted to hitting a backhand slice or chip. Yeah, if you're clearly the better player (and he is when he's not playing the top 3), you can demand that your opponents beat you to get the point. But when it's against someone at least as good as you, you gotta know when to pull the trigger, and how to do it with 100% conviction and confidence. Murray can easily compete with these guys. I've seen Murray destroy Nadal when Nadal was playing some of his best tennis. All it takes is for him to play with some aggression and conviction.
His forehand is good enough. Could it be better? Sure. But if we're going to talk about things that need improvement, let's talk about that serve, particularly the second delivery. That thing is atrocious for someone of his height and power. Out of the big 4, his best second serve points won percentage is equal to the worst percentages of the other 3 since they all became big name players (except for Djokovic who had an abysmal year in 2010 for this stat, and Federer who never dropped as low as Murray since 2003). Murray's best second serve win percentage is 54%. The other three have had at least 1 year where they reached 60% or higher. And when playing against others, Murray frequently sports a second serve win percentage in the 40s. Yes, your ability to rally after starting the point with the serve ties into this stat, but Federer is the weakest in this regard and still posts significantly higher numbers. Not to mention, the stat would be inflated by his matches against non-big-4 members, who he should easily be able to beat in rallies, yet it still remains so much lower than the others.
Compare that to his first serve win percentage, which ranges from 74% to 77% (even his injury years of 2017 and 2018 have a winning percentage of 72%). Federer goes from 80% to 76% (2013 and 2005 oddly enough). Djokovic goes from 71% to 75%. Nadal also goes from 71% to 75% (if you ignore 2016, which was 69%). You might argue that this is because Murray has the second best first serve after Federer, but this isn't necessarily true. In Wimbledon of 2015, Federer had the highest average first serve speed of 118 mph, followed by Djokovic at 116, then Murray and Nadal are tied at 114. Murray has the highest max speed at 132, followed by Federer at 128, Djokovic at 127, and Nadal at 124. His first serve (in) percentage is the lowest, in the low 60s, with Federer slightly higher, but basically in the same general area. Nadal has the highest overall percentage of at least 66% with Djokovic hovering around 65%. In their careers, Federer scores 4.11 aces per double fault, Djokovic gets 2.40, Nadal has 1.87, and Murray has 2.69 aces per double fault. So if you look at his first serve, it's probably around Djokovic level, just slightly more aggressive, and he wins more points with it as a result. Now, if he could do the same with his second serve, he'd probably be feel like a more competitive member of the big 4. When it comes to the return game, he's basically on par with Djokovic. With a slightly more assertive mentality, he could probably be as good as Nadal (whose numbers are a touch better in the break point conversion category). The only thing separating Murray from Djokovic and Nadal is the second serve stat. Push those numbers up, and he probably would've had Djokovic's career. Honestly, I think he's the more talented of the two outside of the serve and the decisive instinct needed to be a GOAT candidate. And both of those things can be developed. Djokovic and Federer took years before they had the head became a dominant force, while Nadal had it since before he joined the tour.
It's a shame really. I think if Murray was raised a little differently (got someone who could teach him to serve properly, and a coach that could get him to be a little more assertive and well rounded with his game to truly abuse his feel for the ball), he could've been the second coming of Federer (and probably put the final nail in the coffin for the one handed backhand). At the very least, he could've made the big 4 competition a lot more exciting beyond being the player lost in the large gap between the 3 gods of tennis and the rest of the world. Murray truly is a man among goats (and they ate the shirt off his back).
Hypothetical peak aggressive Murray has the GOAT'hand.
Back when he was using a hammer as a racket right? The thing with like 400+ swingweight that broke his wrist.
It's hard to argue against their stats, but Nole doesn't leave an impression of being a heavy hitter. Could it be that the graph shows the maximum amount of spin these players were able to impart on the ball? No way Nole hits with 3600+ RPM on average.
? The guy has been taking full cuts on every shot since he joined the tour (with a pretty extreme grip too). The only way to do that with the level of consistency he has is to put a lot of spin on the ball like Federer and Nadal do.
... Come on. 2013 AO chart of the average spin on each of their forehands says comprehensively that Djokovic does not hit "pretty flat on both sides" at all.
