Biggest upset every year on the ATP Tour (2000-present)

clout

clout

Hall of Fame
I feel like I did a thread like this a while back, but if so, it probably needs an update anyways. Here are some off the top of my head:

2000: Kucera def. Agassi at RG OR Clement def. Agassi at USO

2001: 19-year old Federer def. Sampras at WI

2002: Bastl def. Sampras at WI

2003: Karlovic def. Hewitt at WI

2004: Berdych def. Federer at Olympics OR 17-year old Nadal def. Federer in Miami

2005: Safin def. Federer at AO

2006: 19-year old Murray def. Federer at Cincy

2007: Canas def. Federer at IW and Miami back-to-back

2008: Tsonga def. Nadal at AO

2009: Soderling def. Nadal at RG

2010: Berdych def. Federer at WI

2011: Tsonga def. Federer at WI

2012: Rosol def. Nadal at WI

2013: Darcis def. Nadal at WI OR Stakhovsky def. Federer at WI

2014: Cilic & Nishikori def. Federer & Djokovic at USO

2015: Seppi def. Federer at AO (HM: Anderson def. Murray at USO)

2016: Querrey def. Djokovic at WI (HM: Willis def. Berankis at WI)

2017: Istomin def. Djokovic at AO (HMs: M. Zverev def. Murray at AO, Goffin def. Federer at WTF, and 18-year old Shapo def. Nadal in Montreal)

2018: Anderson def. Federer at WI (HM: Millman def. Federer at USO)

2019: Tsistipas def. Federer at AO

2020: Djokovic DQ at USO - if that doesn't count, then probably Schwartzman def. Nadal in Rome OR Senogo def. Djokovic in Vienna
 
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Sonego taking the everlasting sh*t on Djokovic at Vienna is one of the weirdest and surprising upsets I have ever seen in my life.
Wouldn't really count the DQ at the US as an upset, to be completely honest.
 
Any win against an ‘uninjured’ Nadal or a Federer who did not ‘choke’ - because those things never happen.
 
Kemitak said:
Disagree. Djokovic was #3 in the world. Tsonga was #38 and unseeded.
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Fed had been in a gagillion straight slam finals and Nadal, while highly ranked himself, had proven that number to be soft at hard court slams. Nobody was surprised when Rafa lost in the semis of Australia that year. Surprised that Tsonga was the one to beat him? Sure. But it wasn't exactly earth shattering that Nadal got upset.

Neither one was a gigantic upset. But Fed's loss was definitely the bigger deal at the time.
 
He's right. Nadal had reached no HC slam finals and it wasn't too surprising for him to lose, while Fed had won a bazillion consecutive non-RG slams at that point and didn't look like he was slowing down. Djokovic's own Slam trajectory had been kinda lacklustre (he was super young too and retirements/fitness problems were commonplace), and he certainly wasn't expected to win, much less in straights.

They're comparable upsets and the betting odds prove it, around 3.5-4 for both winners
 
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According to the oddsmakers the Nadal loss was a slightly larger upset (Tsonga 3.35 to Nadal 1.29) than the fedr loss (Joe Kovic 3.00 to fedr 1.36).

As to my own attitude going in, the upset alert was on higher for Joe Kovic winning. He had played a respectable final vs fedr at USO’07 and hadn’t dropped a set in Melbourne whereas the Tipsarevic scare in 3R was a big dent in the defending champion’s armor. Straight sets either way was the last expectation but so it goes with expectations sometimes.

The bigger upset involving Big 3 in 2008 was Muzziah’s SF win over The Nadal at USO...1.20 to 4.31.
 
MeatTornado said:
The other semi was the bigger upset, even if it doesn't seem like it in hindsight.
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You think so? Djokovic was an established entity at that point and the no. 3 in the world. Fed had shown some chinks in the armor and Djoko beat him in Canada and played him pretty well at the USO. Tsonga came completely out of nowhere.

Edit: Sorry someone else already said this my bad
 
Safin defeating Federer at AO 2005 wasn't exactly an upset. It's not like Safin was a 'nobody'. The guy steamrolled Sampras to win the USO, was a former world No1 and was a finalist at the same AO the year before. If anything Johannsson defeating Safin at AO '02 should be on the list.
 
pj80 said:
yes but Fed was unbeatable in slams (other then rafa at RG) for quiet some time and rafa was only good at RG at the time
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At that point, Nadal had already reached two consecutive Wimbledon finals and the last one had gone to 5 sets. He hardly was "only good at RG at the time".
 
Sport said:
At that point, Nadal had already reached two consecutive Wimbledon finals and the last one had gone to 5 sets. He hardly was "only good at RG at the time".
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He did due to relatively weak era draw, which he barely squeaked by, needing couple of 5 setters to get there. So it was not as shocking to see him lose in SF of a hardcourt major (first time he reached one) as it was seeing Fed lose in a major SF for the first time in 3 years.
 
Very limited thinking and effort went into this list as the OP apparently believes that since 2004 a big upset must necessarily involve a "Big 3" player. I suspect there are matches involving top-10 players losing to amateur qualifiers that would count as a much bigger upset than Safin (a great player) beating Federer or Tsonga beating Nadal (at Nadal's worst major venue) or Berdych (a perennially highly ranked player) beating Federer. Most of those matches are relatively mild upsets. The OP evidently believes it's a big upset ANYTIME a big 3 player loses. Hell, Tsitsipas was the 14th seed and a highly regarded contender for The Next Big Thing when he beat Federer last year in Australia. That's not a huge upset.
 
clout said:
I feel like I did a thread like this a while back, but if so, it probably needs an update anyways. Here are some off the top of my head:

2000: Kucera def. Agassi at RG OR Clement def. Agassi at USO

2001: 19-year old Federer def. Sampras at WI

2002: Bastl def. Sampras at WI

2003: Karlovic def. Hewitt at WI

2004: Berdych def. Federer at Olympics OR 17-year old Nadal def. Federer in Miami

2005: Safin def. Federer at AO

2006: 19-year old Murray def. Federer at Cincy

2007: Canas def. Federer at IW and Miami back-to-back

2008: Tsonga def. Nadal at AO

2009: Soderling def. Nadal at RG

2010: Berdych def. Federer at WI

2011: Tsonga def. Federer at WI

2012: Rosol def. Nadal at WI

2013: Darcis def. Nadal at WI OR Stakhovsky def. Federer at WI

2014: Cilic & Nishikori def. Federer & Djokovic at USO

2015: Seppi def. Federer at AO (HM: Anderson def. Murray at USO)

2016: Querrey def. Djokovic at WI (HM: Willis def. Berankis at WI)

2017: Istomin def. Djokovic at AO (HMs: M. Zverev def. Murray at AO, Goffin def. Federer at WTF, and 18-year old Shapo def. Nadal in Montreal)

2018: Anderson def. Federer at WI (HM: Millman def. Federer at USO)

2019: Tsistipas def. Federer at AO

2020: Djokovic DQ at USO - if that doesn't count, then probably Schwartzman def. Nadal in Rome OR Senogo def. Djokovic in Vienna
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And among all of these, the upset listed in 2009 is second to none.
 
For 2010 I kind of feel like the Fed Roland Garros loss to Soderling was the more shocking one with the end of his semi final streak. Like, on paper obviously him failing to reach the Wimbledon final for the first time since 2002 was pretty mad, but it ain't the one I remember first when I think back to that time. Ditto for the Darcis win in 2013. After the loss to Rosol it was barely even a shock, certainly not compared to the Stakhovsky one which was a huge deal.

Also, there are some here I definitely wouldn't disagree with but they have super strong competition. The 2014 Australian Open final, the 2009 US Open final, 2015 Roland Garros final, etc. In fact that last one I'd probably take over the Seppi match which to me was more like "WTF?" then "WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAH"
 
Druss said:
Safin defeating Federer at AO 2005 wasn't exactly an upset. It's not like Safin was a 'nobody'. The guy steamrolled Sampras to win the USO, was a former world No1 and was a finalist at the same AO the year before. If anything Johannsson defeating Safin at AO '02 should be on the list.
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I'd call it a pretty big upset. That was the only time he lost at a major outside RG between 2004-07, and besides Djoker in AO 08, those two were the only times he lost to someone not named Nadal at a slam from 2004 WI-09 WI.
 
clout said:
I'd call it a pretty big upset. That was the only time he lost at a major outside RG between 2004-07, and besides Djoker in AO 08, those two were the only times he lost to someone not named Nadal at a slam from 2004 WI-09 WI.
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Up until AO‘05 Federer was a 4 time slam winner. Forget what happeNed after, we couldn’t tell the future then. He was not regarded at the time in the same manner as say in 2008. It’s like saying had Stich defeated Courier in 1993 it would have been an upset.
 
I know Nadal had been scuffling for a couple years already at Wimbledon, and would shut it down before the US Open in ‘14. But losing to a 19 yr old wildcard ranked #144 is still pretty big upset. Kyrgios made his name off this win.
 
clout said:
I feel like I did a thread like this a while back, but if so, it probably needs an update anyways. Here are some off the top of my head:

2000: Kucera def. Agassi at RG OR Clement def. Agassi at USO

2001: 19-year old Federer def. Sampras at WI

2002: Bastl def. Sampras at WI

2003: Karlovic def. Hewitt at WI

2004: Berdych def. Federer at Olympics OR 17-year old Nadal def. Federer in Miami

2005: Safin def. Federer at AO

2006: 19-year old Murray def. Federer at Cincy

2007: Canas def. Federer at IW and Miami back-to-back

2008: Tsonga def. Nadal at AO

2009: Soderling def. Nadal at RG

2010: Berdych def. Federer at WI

2011: Tsonga def. Federer at WI

2012: Rosol def. Nadal at WI

2013: Darcis def. Nadal at WI OR Stakhovsky def. Federer at WI

2014: Cilic & Nishikori def. Federer & Djokovic at USO

2015: Seppi def. Federer at AO (HM: Anderson def. Murray at USO)

2016: Querrey def. Djokovic at WI (HM: Willis def. Berankis at WI)

2017: Istomin def. Djokovic at AO (HMs: M. Zverev def. Murray at AO, Goffin def. Federer at WTF, and 18-year old Shapo def. Nadal in Montreal)

2018: Anderson def. Federer at WI (HM: Millman def. Federer at USO)

2019: Tsistipas def. Federer at AO

2020: Djokovic DQ at USO - if that doesn't count, then probably Schwartzman def. Nadal in Rome OR Senogo def. Djokovic in Vienna
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2019 has to be Fognini vs Nadal at MC, also 2014 has gotta be Kyrgios-Nadal. Good list though!
 
2005 -Nadal breakthrough win. Beats Federer.
2008 - AO Semis Federer lost the streak
2012 - Rosol
2013 - S&V player defeated Federer at W
2017 - Djokovic lost to Istomin at AO
2014 - Djokovic lost to Nishikori
 
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