Biggest upset in tennis history?

Biggest upset ever?

  • Soderling over Nadal at the French

    Votes: 26 52.0%
  • Vinci over Serena at the U.S. Open

    Votes: 21 42.0%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 3 6.0%

  • Total voters
    50

vive le beau jeu !

Talk Tennis Guru
the soderlingement day is the most beautitul :) but soderling was seeded...
this one is in the SF, but i have to say it's totally unexpected, especially after the 1st set ! :eek:
(pressure ?)

PS: doohan beating becker at wimbledon 1987 was a big one too...
 

Backspin1183

Talk Tennis Guru
You forgot to add Nadal-Stanimal 2014 AO. No one believed it until the first set was over.

Vinci over S Williams is still a bigger upset though as you didn't know until the last point was won.
 

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil

Talk Tennis Guru
That French girl Razzano, ranked outside of top 100, defeated Williams at 2012 RG, which was and still remains Serena's only GS exit in the 1st round.
As far as Soderling and Vinci upsets are concerned, I would but Vinci's win higher, because Serena has been a beast on all tournaments and held all 4 GS, while in Rafa's case it is only RG.
 

TennisCJC

Legend
Stan, Soderling, Nishikori take the cake
To each their own. Stan, Soderling and Nishikori were all top 10 at the time of their "upsets". At least on paper, one top 10 beating another top 10 is not outrageous. Vinci beating Serena is outrageous to me. I would have given Stan at least 30% against Djoko, Kei 30% against Djoko, and Soderling 10% against Nadal. I was thinking Vinci had about 1% chance against Serena.
 

Moose Malloy

G.O.A.T.
Stringerton, that 300-1 was the line on Vinci before the tournament to win it, not the line vs serena today. She was 'only' a 66-1 underdog in this match
 

Starfury

Hall of Fame
I don't think this is anywhere close to the biggest upset. But it's certainly the most consequential one.

Rosol - Nadal certainly was a bigger upset
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Not sure if biggest overall but bigger then Soderling for sure, top player who was seeded. Vinci was unseeded, never reached a semifinal before
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
I don't think this is anywhere close to the biggest upset. But it's certainly the most consequential one.

Good post.

Essentially what it means is it needs a humongous effort for a Stak, Stan, Soderling and Nishikori to do the upset of Rafa, Fed and Novak.

Beating Serena at this juncture required Vinci to just put the ball in play like she mentioned .
 

gambitt

Banned
To each their own. Stan, Soderling and Nishikori were all top 10 at the time of their "upsets". At least on paper, one top 10 beating another top 10 is not outrageous. Vinci beating Serena is outrageous to me. I would have given Stan at least 30% against Djoko, Kei 30% against Djoko, and Soderling 10% against Nadal. I was thinking Vinci had about 1% chance against Serena.

Soderling wasn't even close to top 10 at RG 2009. He was around 30, just inside the seeds.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
To me, it is. Biggest, most unexpected upset ever. Men's tour is more competitive. The chance of upset is always higher (also grass is a more unpredictable surface). But Vinci beating Serena at USO??? Massive, massive surprise.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
How about Mac over Lendl at the '84 FO? Lendl was a known choker in slam finals and Mac was in the middle of the single greatest season in the Open Era. He'd owned Lendl the previous 2 years and he was up 2 sets and a break in the third... but loses!

I know people will say "Lendl was the #2 player in the world then, no upset!" But people saying that weren't alive when this happened. HUGE upset for that time.
 

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
I don't think this is anywhere close to the biggest upset. But it's certainly the most consequential one.

Rosol - Nadal certainly was a bigger upset
No way. Grass!

Easily Soderling. Nadal owned RG. Serena lost many matches at the U.S. Open.

And also don't agree that this Vinci win was the most consequential - Fed may not have an RG title w/o that Soderling upset.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
I wonder what Soderling's odds were with the bookies of beating Nadal going into their 2009 French Open R16 match?

How about Mac over Lendl at the '84 FO? Lendl was a known choker in slam finals and Mac was in the middle of the single greatest season in the Open Era. He'd owned Lendl the previous 2 years and he was up 2 sets and a break in the third... but loses!

I know people will say "Lendl was the #2 player in the world then, no upset!" But people saying that weren't alive when this happened. HUGE upset for that time.

McEnroe was not up a break in the third set, but in the fourth set (4-3 in the fourth set), and got broken straight back (4-4).
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
One that isn't mentioned often is Jim Courier losing to Andrei Olhovskiy at 1992 Wimbledon. Courier was on a 25 match winning streak going in (had won the first 2 majors of the year), and while not the favourite at Wimbledon (because it was grass), Courier losing to #193 ranked Olhovskiy was a big surprise.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
around 40/1 in comparison Vinci was 17/1 today

Now the question is, has anyone won a top level tennis match when they were quoted at longer odds than 40/1 at the start of the match. I doubt it, personally. Nadal's reputation at the French Open was as strong as it is possible to be (31-0 at the French Open, winning his last 32 sets at the tournament). Soderling was in his first R16 match at a major and Nadal beat Soderling 6-1, 6-0 at the 2009 Italian Open just 1 month earlier.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
Speaking of Nadal, his loss to Rosol at 2012 Wimbledon is another huge upset. Forget the hindsight of his average to poor form on grass since then, because at the time that Nadal went into his 2012 Wimbledon R64 match against Rosol, Nadal hadn't lost before the final at Wimbledon since 2005.
 

Gut Check

Professional
How about Mac over Lendl at the '84 FO? Lendl was a known choker in slam finals and Mac was in the middle of the single greatest season in the Open Era. He'd owned Lendl the previous 2 years and he was up 2 sets and a break in the third... but loses!

I know people will say "Lendl was the #2 player in the world then, no upset!" But people saying that weren't alive when this happened. HUGE upset for that time.

It was surprising that McEnroe lost the match after staking himself to a solid lead and looking like the dominant player over the first 2 sets, especially given his form all that year. Was it a huge upset for Lendl to prevail based on the climate at the beginning of the match though? Not really. It wasn't even so shocking watching it happen at the time, given the relative fitness discrepancies between them. Rather presumptuous for you to state that anyone who was alive at this time would have considered it an upset of historic proportions. You are welcome to speak for yourself.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
One huge upset in the women's game that I remember was at 1999 Wimbledon, when Martina Hingis (the 1997 Wimbledon champion, and 5 time singles major winner overall), was thrashed 6-2, 6-0 in the first round by a 16 year old qualifier Jelena Dokic, ranked at #129 in the world.
 

gambitt

Banned
I wonder what Soderling's odds were with the bookies of beating Nadal going into their 2009 French Open R16 match?

Nadal was trading at 1.02 to 1.03 to win that match, which made Soderling between 33/1 and 50/1 (just to beat Nadal, not to win the tournament).
 

CDNguy87

Hall of Fame
Gonna have to go with Nadal/Soderling on this one. Serena has choked away matches at Slams before and she had some close Slam matches earlier this year. In contrast, Nadal was absolutely unbeatable at RG before his Soderling match (31-0 all-time heading in if my math is correct) and Soderling was a nobody at the time who hadn't even made it past the 3rd round of a Slam before that tournament.

Also looking back in hindsight, the fact that it took 6 more years (and a massive decline) for Nadal to lose another match at RG is a testament to how colossal an upset that was.
 

mistik

Hall of Fame
Soderling against Nadal and Lori Mcneil against Graf in 1st round of Wimbledon in 1994 is bigger than this. Serena lived on a knife edge all year she never looked all that dominant despite keep winning. She should lost to Watson in Wimbledon.
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
Today is history making day..... and No way Soderling over Rafa was an upset. people who knew Rafa knew that he was having some major family problems and he was no where near his normal. and they knew he could lose in any round... that year.
 

ScentOfDefeat

G.O.A.T.
Wow, guys. Just tuned in. I didn't even watch the match. What in the devil's name happened?

I guess the sun won't rise tomorrow. Very, very surprised by this. And yes, I think it's one of the greatest upsets of all time. I'll have to watch this match.
 

duaneeo

Legend
Soderling over Nadal was without question the biggest upset. Nadal had won the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome. At RG, he easily won his first 3 matches in straight sets, and in the R16 was facing a player he'd never lost to, and had just smoked at Rome 6-1, 6-0. NO ONE saw that upset coming.

The Serena loss is definitely an upset, but no way the biggest in tennis history. Nadal at 2009 RG wasn't facing anywhere near the extraordinary amount of pressure Serena was facing at 2015 USO.
 
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