Bo5 experience vs. top players = key to first time Slam winners (analysis)

[Kralingen]

Building off this post from the Roddick/Nadal thread:

We are starved for new champions in this sport. Seemingly every time a new player shows promise, they make it to the big stage and fall apart, losing their confidence.

So how does a first time champion do it? How do they manage to rise above the pressure and topple the established elite? The answer may live in the past.

I found that prior Bo5 experience is a statistically significant criterion for successful first time Slam winners since 2000.

Exact criterion: the first time Slam winner played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match (usually on the same surface)

10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners meet the criterion listed above. It can't be a coincidence.

Medvedev USO '21 - beat Djokovic - lost to Djokovic in AO '21 F
Thiem (weird example) USO '20 - beat Zverev - also beat Zverev in AO '20 SF
Cilic USO '14 - stretch, as his finalist was also a first time Slam finalist. However, comes close (lost to Federer at USO '11, beat Nishikori at USO '12)
Wawrinka AO '14- beat Djokovic in QF, Nadal in F, lost to Djokovic at AO/USO '13, lost to Nadal at FO '13
Murray USO '12 - beat Djokovic in F, lost to Djokovic at AO '12 SF
Del Potro USO '09- beat Federer in F, lost to Federer at AO/FO '09
Djokovic AO '08- beat Federer in SF, lost to Federer at USO '07 F, AO '07 4R
Nadal FO '05 - beat Federer in F, lost to Federer in BO5 final at Miami '05
Ferrero FO '03 - beat Costa in SF, lost to Costa in FO '02 F
Johansson AO '02 - beat Safin in F, lost to Safin in USO '01 SF
Hewitt USO '01 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras in USO '00 SF
Safin USO '00 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras at '98 US Open

The players who don't meet this criterion:
Costa - doesn't meet criterion (French Open is weird)
Ivanisevic - doesn't meet criterion (but he is special case, world #100, semi retired before one last WC at WB '01)
Roddick, Federer, Gaudio - don't meet criterion as finalist was also a first time Slam finalist

The 1990s has a lot of first time slam champions who also don't meet the criterion, but mostly because they faced fellow first-time slam finalists. And there are players who do meet the criterion, in Courier, Bruguera, Korda.

And there are so many other examples of improvement elsewhere - FAA v. Med from USO '21 to AO '22, Zverev v. Djok from AO '21 to USO '21, Djokovic v. Nadal from FO '20 to FO '21, Thiem v. Nadal from FO '19/USO '18 to AO '20, etc.

What it tells us?
While there are certainly eternally doomed players who can never get over the hump (Roddick v. Federer at Wimby, Murray v. Djokovic at AO, Ferrer/Almagro/anyone at FO, etc.)...

if you want to predict a new first time Slam winner, they usually are coming off of a recent loss in a BO5 format to the player they end up beating. This significant experience helps them come in calm and commit to a strong gameplan, allows them to build on their mistakes from the last match, and is key to having the right mentality and coaching preparation.

TL;DR:
10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match.

What this means is, it's rare for someone to win their first match against a top guy in Bo5. However, recent Bo5 experience has been key to success for first time winners and should not be discounted.

 

[aldeayeah]

Therefore, you all should be rooting for Alcaraz to get pasted by Djokodal in the next couple slams, so he can bring the goods starting next USO.

QED.

 

[aldeayeah]

Also, the rise of Zed, Tsitsipas and Berrettini is almost inevitable, I mean how many times has Djokovic Shang Tsunged them yet?

 

[Aabye5]

Building off this post from the Roddick/Nadal thread:

We are starved for new champions in this sport. Seemingly every time a new player shows promise, they make it to the big stage and fall apart, losing their confidence.

So how does a first time champion do it? How do they manage to rise above the pressure and topple the established elite? The answer may live in the past.

I found that prior Bo5 experience is a statistically significant criterion for successful first time Slam winners since 2000.

Exact criterion: the first time Slam winner played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match (usually on the same surface)

10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners meet the criterion listed above. It can't be a coincidence.

Medvedev USO '21 - beat Djokovic - lost to Djokovic in AO '21 F
Thiem (weird example) USO '20 - beat Zverev - also beat Zverev in AO '20 SF
Cilic USO '14 - stretch, as his finalist was also a first time Slam finalist. However, comes close (lost to Federer at USO '11, beat Nishikori at USO '12)
Wawrinka AO '14- beat Djokovic in QF, Nadal in F, lost to Djokovic at AO/USO '13, lost to Nadal at FO '13
Murray USO '12 - beat Djokovic in F, lost to Djokovic at AO '12 SF
Del Potro USO '09- beat Federer in F, lost to Federer at AO/FO '09
Djokovic AO '08- beat Federer in SF, lost to Federer at USO '07 F, AO '07 4R
Nadal FO '05 - beat Federer in F, lost to Federer in BO5 final at Miami '05
Ferrero FO '02 - beat Costa in F, lost to Costa in FO '01 SF
Johansson AO '02 - beat Safin in F, lost to Safin in USO '01 SF
Hewitt USO '01 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras in USO '00 SF
Safin USO '00 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras at '98 US Open

The players who don't meet this criterion:
Costa - doesn't meet criterion (French Open is weird)
Ivanisevic - doesn't meet criterion (but he is special case, world #100, semi retired before one last WC at WB '01)
Roddick, Federer, Gaudio - don't meet criterion as finalist was also a first time Slam finalist

The 1990s has a lot of first time slam champions who also don't meet the criterion, but mostly because they faced fellow first-time slam finalists. And there are players who do meet the criterion, in Courier, Bruguera, Korda.

And there are so many other examples of improvement elsewhere - FAA v. Med from USO '21 to AO '22, Zverev v. Djok from AO '21 to USO '21, Djokovic v. Nadal from FO '20 to FO '21, Thiem v. Nadal from FO '19/USO '18 to AO '20, etc.

What it tells us?
While there are certainly eternally doomed players who can never get over the hump (Roddick v. Federer at Wimby, Murray v. Djokovic at AO, Ferrer/Almagro/anyone at FO, etc.)...

if you want to predict a new first time Slam winner, they usually are coming off of a recent loss in a BO5 format to the player they end up beating. This significant experience helps them come in calm and commit to a strong gameplan, allows them to build on their mistakes from the last match, and is key to having the right mentality and coaching preparation.

TL;DR:
10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match.

What this means is, it's rare for someone to win their first match against a top guy in Bo5. However, recent Bo5 experience has been key to success for first time winners and should not be discounted.

So you wrote all this to say...we need to go back to 5-set finals in M1000s? Ok, I agree.

 

[metsman]

Safin a bit of a stretch as he was like 15 and it was a routine early round match. 00 USO was his first time past the QF but he still showed up and bossed. Similar to Fraud. Talent.

 

[nam416]

<snip>
Nadal FO '05 - beat Federer in F, lost to Federer in BO5 final at Miami '05
<snip>

That's sneaky, most people think it was in the semi (okay, defacto final, but still)...

 

[Sport]

Hi, I'm passing by to this thread in the comfortable Alcaraz hype train. Please, take a seat all you want, it's free.

 

[Jokervich]

Building off this post from the Roddick/Nadal thread:

We are starved for new champions in this sport. Seemingly every time a new player shows promise, they make it to the big stage and fall apart, losing their confidence.

So how does a first time champion do it? How do they manage to rise above the pressure and topple the established elite? The answer may live in the past.

I found that prior Bo5 experience is a statistically significant criterion for successful first time Slam winners since 2000.

Exact criterion: the first time Slam winner played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match (usually on the same surface)

10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners meet the criterion listed above. It can't be a coincidence.

Medvedev USO '21 - beat Djokovic - lost to Djokovic in AO '21 F
Thiem (weird example) USO '20 - beat Zverev - also beat Zverev in AO '20 SF
Cilic USO '14 - stretch, as his finalist was also a first time Slam finalist. However, comes close (lost to Federer at USO '11, beat Nishikori at USO '12)
Wawrinka AO '14- beat Djokovic in QF, Nadal in F, lost to Djokovic at AO/USO '13, lost to Nadal at FO '13
Murray USO '12 - beat Djokovic in F, lost to Djokovic at AO '12 SF
Del Potro USO '09- beat Federer in F, lost to Federer at AO/FO '09
Djokovic AO '08- beat Federer in SF, lost to Federer at USO '07 F, AO '07 4R
Nadal FO '05 - beat Federer in F, lost to Federer in BO5 final at Miami '05
Ferrero FO '02 - beat Costa in F, lost to Costa in FO '01 SF
Johansson AO '02 - beat Safin in F, lost to Safin in USO '01 SF
Hewitt USO '01 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras in USO '00 SF
Safin USO '00 - beat Sampras in F, lost to Sampras at '98 US Open

The players who don't meet this criterion:
Costa - doesn't meet criterion (French Open is weird)
Ivanisevic - doesn't meet criterion (but he is special case, world #100, semi retired before one last WC at WB '01)
Roddick, Federer, Gaudio - don't meet criterion as finalist was also a first time Slam finalist

The 1990s has a lot of first time slam champions who also don't meet the criterion, but mostly because they faced fellow first-time slam finalists. And there are players who do meet the criterion, in Courier, Bruguera, Korda.

And there are so many other examples of improvement elsewhere - FAA v. Med from USO '21 to AO '22, Zverev v. Djok from AO '21 to USO '21, Djokovic v. Nadal from FO '20 to FO '21, Thiem v. Nadal from FO '19/USO '18 to AO '20, etc.

What it tells us?
While there are certainly eternally doomed players who can never get over the hump (Roddick v. Federer at Wimby, Murray v. Djokovic at AO, Ferrer/Almagro/anyone at FO, etc.)...

if you want to predict a new first time Slam winner, they usually are coming off of a recent loss in a BO5 format to the player they end up beating. This significant experience helps them come in calm and commit to a strong gameplan, allows them to build on their mistakes from the last match, and is key to having the right mentality and coaching preparation.

TL;DR:
10 of the last 15 first time Slam winners played their best opponent or finalist in a recent Bo5/Slam match.

What this means is, it's rare for someone to win their first match against a top guy in Bo5. However, recent Bo5 experience has been key to success for first time winners and should not be discounted.

Interesting pattern. Nice find. What happens if the 2 same players meet for a third time in a slam final? Who wins then?

 

[accidental]

I think your point about Ferrero is a bit off.

Ferrero lost to Costa in the 2002 final, then Ferrero beat Costa in the semis in 2003 and went on to win the final.

 

[Kralingen]

I think your point about Ferrero is a bit off.

Ferrero lost to Costa in the 2002 final, then Ferrero beat Costa in the semis in 2003 and went on to win the final.

That's sneaky, most people think it was in the semi (okay, defacto final, but still)...

I substituted best opponent faced for finalist in some cases (I.e. defending champ Costa was tougher than Verkerk, defending champ Federer tougher than Tsonga, world #1 Federer tougher than Puerta) is the assumption.

Not a perfect system but when challenging a top player with Slam experience it really really helps to have played them in bo5 before.

 

[darthrafa]

maybe irrelevant to the thread
due to the lack of match fitness, it may be the first time, djoker will lose to some young players in 5 sets. that said, I would still he cannot be written off at the coming fo. likely that he would survive by winning matches with 3-0 or 3-1.

 

[Kralingen]

Also, the rise of Zed, Tsitsipas and Berrettini is almost inevitable, I mean how many times has Djokovic Shang Tsunged them yet?

Tsitsipas I would bet almost anything will be totally locked in playing against Djokovic if they meet at the French. Zverev.. I think we already saw his second wind similar to Med in the fall of 2021 after AO ‘21, but the USO loss was just a collapse in the 5th.

I mean, there are plenty counter examples of guys who kept getting there and kept losing, Berdych, Ferrer, etc. i think Berrettini’s skill ceiling/injury issue is limiting enough that he won’t be able to do it, but I’d watch out for his Wimbledon form this year. I think he’ll be in better form.

candidates for a Big 3 takedown by these metrics: Zverev, Shapovalov, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Sinner

 

[Deleted member 788697]

It would be tragic if Denis beats Nadal at a slam, because that 2022 AO meeting was a great example of Denis not deserving to win a slam, very disrespectful personality

 

[abmk]

Tsitsipas I would bet almost anything will be totally locked in playing against Djokovic if they meet at the French. Zverev.. I think we already saw his second wind similar to Med in the fall of 2021 after AO ‘21, but the USO loss was just a collapse in the 5th.

I mean, there are plenty counter examples of guys who kept getting there and kept losing, Berdych, Ferrer, etc. i think Berrettini’s skill ceiling/injury issue is limiting enough that he won’t be able to do it, but I’d watch out for his Wimbledon form this year. I think he’ll be in better form.

candidates for a Big 3 takedown by these metrics: Zverev, Shapovalov, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Sinner

Tpas lost to Djoko at FO in 20
and again in 21

best not to expect much from any member of Generations suck (late 89 Nishi till 99 end born)

 

[InsideOut900]

Tpas lost to Djoko at FO in 20
and again in 21

best not to expect much from any member of Generations suck (late 89 Nishi till 99 end born)

I personally totally expect Tsitsipas to beat the current Djokovic in BO5.

In 2020 Djoko had a big advantage in BO5.
2021 was almost a miracle run agewise.

This year he will likely be worse than both and Tsitsipas may not.

 

[Mustard]

Ferrero FO '02 - beat Costa in F, lost to Costa in FO '01 SF

Er, what? Costa beat Ferrero in the 2002 French Open final, as a clear underdog. Ferrero beat Costa in the 2003 French Open semi final, after Costa had an incredible run in the defence of his title. Ferrero lost in 5 sets to Kuerten at the 2000 French Open (in the semi final), beat Kuerten in the 2001 Italian Open final in 5 sets, lost the 2001 Hamburg final to Portas in 5 sets. Kuerten beat Ferrero in the 2001 French Open semi final. Ferrero won the 2003 French Open, beating Verkerk in the final, after Verkerk had taken out both Moya and Coria.

 

[abmk]

I personally totally expect Tsitsipas to beat the current Djokovic in BO5.

In 2020 Djoko had a big advantage in BO5.
2021 was almost a miracle run agewise.

This year he will likely be worse than both and Tsitsipas may not.

I've learnt not to expect much from any member of Generations suck (late 89 Nishi till 99 end born).
Tpas was 21 and many months in RG 20. Had taken out fed in AO 19. So by normal standards, Djokovic who was 33 years old should not have a big advantage in Bo5 on clay (its arguable whether he should have any advantage at all). But the standards have been so lowered in this inflation era...

 

[InsideOut900]

I've learnt not to expect much from any member of Generations suck (late 89 Nishi till 99 end born).
Tpas was 21 and many months in RG 20. Had taken out fed in AO 19. So by normal standards, Djokovic who was 33 years old should not have a big advantage in Bo5 on clay (its arguable whether he should have any advantage at all). But the standards have been so lowered in this inflation era...

Novak had the experience advantage in 2020, even if this only makes sense in this era.
In 2021 it was evenly matched, but the loss was on Tsitsipas for being physically outlasted.

This year I am more concerned with Novak's form and stamina than Tsitsipas making any noticeable improvements honestly.