USO2010
Rookie
In this framework, Grand Slam titles are weighted by the average quality of opposition faced, in the circumstances of the era they were in. We are merely attempting to quantify the average eye test ratings from historical posts, which discuss old draws/old match quality and strength of prior eras.
Slams won over prime elite opponents and deep tournament fields, are weighted more heavily than slam titles won in weaker competitive environments.
We need to account for strength of draw which is based on two factors: depth and top-end quality. This is reflected in the scoring criteria below.
We also need a multiplier to reflect slam inflation: where overall quality declines as the elite field continues to age and get phased out of professional tennis, while the next generation has not yet matured. This factor thus adjusts for the overall strength of the tour. (e.g. 2009 AO F was stronger quality than 2017 AO F, given that the matchup occurred in their primes, and the top end talent were generally in their primes)
Deep Draw — 5 points: Awarded for navigating a particularly deep field containing several high-quality opponents.
Elite Scalp — 5 points: Awarded for defeating an all-time great playing at least a good level, or a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player performing near his peak.
Elite Draw + Elite Scalp — 7 points: Awarded for navigating a deep draw while also defeating an all-time great playing at a high level, or a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player near his peak.
Intermediate Case — 6 points: Awarded when the overall difficulty falls between an elite scalp or deep draw and the combined elite-draw-plus-elite-scalp category.
Era Multiplier
Federer: Adjusted slam points: 100.8
03 WB (Roddick playing ATG level): 5 points
04 AO (Hewitt, Nalbandian, Ferrero, Safin): 6 points
04 WB (Johannsson, Hewitt, Grosjean, peak Roddick): 7 points
04 USO: 4 points
05 USO (strong Hewitt....modestly deep w/ Kiefer, old Agassi): 6 points
05 WB (Hewitt was good and modest depth): 5 points
06 AO: 4 points
06 WB (Ancic, prime Nadal): 5 points
06 USO: 4 points
07 AO: 4 points
07 WB (prime Nadal): 6 points
07 USO (strong Roddick, young Djokovic): 6 points
08 USO (solid Djokovic): 5 points
09 FO (deep draw featuring Soderling + Delpo): 6 points
09 WB (strong Roddick): 5 points
10 AO: 4 points
12 WB (Benneteau, Djokovic, peak Murray): 7 points
17 AO (old Ned, Stan, deep draw): 7* .80 = 5.60 points
17 WB: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
18 AO: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
Nadal: Adjusted slam points: 105.3
05 RG (modest depth w/ Grosjean, Puerta, and prime Fed): 6 points
06 RG (deep draw w/ Mathieu, Hewitt, Djokovic, prime Fed): 7 points
07 RG (young Djokovic, prime Fed): 6 points
08 RG (deep draw + prime Fed + high level Djokovic): 7 points
08 WB (prime Fed, Murray): 6 points
09 AO (deep draw - Gonzalez, Simon, Verdasco, prime Fed): 7 points
10 RG: 4 points
10 WB (decent depth w/ grass courters + Berdych + Soderling + Murray): 5 points
10 USO (solid Djokovic): 5 points
11 RG (deep draw - Isner, Soderling, very good Murray, late prime Fed): 6 points
12 RG (Almagro, Ferrer, good prime Djokovic): 6 points
13 USO: 4 points
13 RG (deep draw with Fognini, Nishikori, Wawrinka, Ferrer, prime Djokovic): 7 points
14 RG (good prime Djokovic): 5 points
17 RG: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
17 USO: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
18 RG: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
19 RG (best Thiem, Fed, Nishi, modest depth): 5 × 0.72 = 3.60 points
19 USO: 4 × 0.72 = 2.88 points
20 RG: 4 × 0.69 = 2.76 points
22 AO: 4 × 0.62 = 2.48 points
22 RG (ok depth + Ok Djokovic): 5 × 0.62 = 3.10 points
Djokovic: Adjusted slam points: 103.5
08 AO (strong draw headlined by Tsonga, Fed): 7 points
11 AO (strong draw, Fed Murray Berdych): 7 points
11 WB (Tomic, Tsonga, mediocre Nadal): 5 points
11 USO (great Fed, mediocre Nadal): 6 points
12 AO (Peak Murray, Nadal): 7 points
13 AO (peak Wawa, strong Berdych, good Murray): 7 points
14 WB (deep draw but old Fed): 6 points
15 AO (Volatile Stan, Ok Murray): 5 points
15 WB (deep draw but old Fed): 6 points
15 USO: 4 points
16 AO: 4 points
16 FO: 4 points
18 WB (Nadal): 5 × 0.76 = 3.80 points
18 USO: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
19 AO: 4 × 0.72 = 2.88 points
19 WB (Fed): 5 × 0.72 = 3.60 points
20 AO (decent Thiem): 5 × 0.69 = 3.45 points
21 AO: 4 × 0.65 = 2.60 points
21 WB: 4 × 0.65 = 2.60 points
21 FO (Nadal + Tsitsi): 6 × 0.65 = 3.9 points
22 WB: 4 × 0.62 = 2.48 points
23 AO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
23 FO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
23 USO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
TLDR; The big 3 are all more or less the same in terms of slam achievements, weighted by quality.
Slams won over prime elite opponents and deep tournament fields, are weighted more heavily than slam titles won in weaker competitive environments.
We need to account for strength of draw which is based on two factors: depth and top-end quality. This is reflected in the scoring criteria below.
We also need a multiplier to reflect slam inflation: where overall quality declines as the elite field continues to age and get phased out of professional tennis, while the next generation has not yet matured. This factor thus adjusts for the overall strength of the tour. (e.g. 2009 AO F was stronger quality than 2017 AO F, given that the matchup occurred in their primes, and the top end talent were generally in their primes)
Scoring Criteria
Standard Slam — 4 points: Awarded when the title does not satisfy any of the higher-quality criteria below.Deep Draw — 5 points: Awarded for navigating a particularly deep field containing several high-quality opponents.
Elite Scalp — 5 points: Awarded for defeating an all-time great playing at least a good level, or a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player performing near his peak.
Elite Draw + Elite Scalp — 7 points: Awarded for navigating a deep draw while also defeating an all-time great playing at a high level, or a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player near his peak.
Intermediate Case — 6 points: Awarded when the overall difficulty falls between an elite scalp or deep draw and the combined elite-draw-plus-elite-scalp category.
Era Multiplier
- Prime Era (2003–2016): Multiplier = 1.00. Titles are awarded full value.
- Career Inflation Era (2017–2023): Starting from a factor of 0.8, a compounding 5% annual reduction is applied to reflect the gradual weakening of the field, as the elite talent continues to age, without the consistent presence of an emerging ATG talent.
- 2017: 0.80×
- 2018: 0.76×
- 2019: 0.72×
- 2020: 0.69×
- 2021: 0.65×
- 2022: 0.62×
- 2023: 0.59×
Federer: Adjusted slam points: 100.8
03 WB (Roddick playing ATG level): 5 points
04 AO (Hewitt, Nalbandian, Ferrero, Safin): 6 points
04 WB (Johannsson, Hewitt, Grosjean, peak Roddick): 7 points
04 USO: 4 points
05 USO (strong Hewitt....modestly deep w/ Kiefer, old Agassi): 6 points
05 WB (Hewitt was good and modest depth): 5 points
06 AO: 4 points
06 WB (Ancic, prime Nadal): 5 points
06 USO: 4 points
07 AO: 4 points
07 WB (prime Nadal): 6 points
07 USO (strong Roddick, young Djokovic): 6 points
08 USO (solid Djokovic): 5 points
09 FO (deep draw featuring Soderling + Delpo): 6 points
09 WB (strong Roddick): 5 points
10 AO: 4 points
12 WB (Benneteau, Djokovic, peak Murray): 7 points
17 AO (old Ned, Stan, deep draw): 7* .80 = 5.60 points
17 WB: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
18 AO: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
Nadal: Adjusted slam points: 105.3
05 RG (modest depth w/ Grosjean, Puerta, and prime Fed): 6 points
06 RG (deep draw w/ Mathieu, Hewitt, Djokovic, prime Fed): 7 points
07 RG (young Djokovic, prime Fed): 6 points
08 RG (deep draw + prime Fed + high level Djokovic): 7 points
08 WB (prime Fed, Murray): 6 points
09 AO (deep draw - Gonzalez, Simon, Verdasco, prime Fed): 7 points
10 RG: 4 points
10 WB (decent depth w/ grass courters + Berdych + Soderling + Murray): 5 points
10 USO (solid Djokovic): 5 points
11 RG (deep draw - Isner, Soderling, very good Murray, late prime Fed): 6 points
12 RG (Almagro, Ferrer, good prime Djokovic): 6 points
13 USO: 4 points
13 RG (deep draw with Fognini, Nishikori, Wawrinka, Ferrer, prime Djokovic): 7 points
14 RG (good prime Djokovic): 5 points
17 RG: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
17 USO: 4 × 0.80 = 3.20 points
18 RG: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
19 RG (best Thiem, Fed, Nishi, modest depth): 5 × 0.72 = 3.60 points
19 USO: 4 × 0.72 = 2.88 points
20 RG: 4 × 0.69 = 2.76 points
22 AO: 4 × 0.62 = 2.48 points
22 RG (ok depth + Ok Djokovic): 5 × 0.62 = 3.10 points
Djokovic: Adjusted slam points: 103.5
08 AO (strong draw headlined by Tsonga, Fed): 7 points
11 AO (strong draw, Fed Murray Berdych): 7 points
11 WB (Tomic, Tsonga, mediocre Nadal): 5 points
11 USO (great Fed, mediocre Nadal): 6 points
12 AO (Peak Murray, Nadal): 7 points
13 AO (peak Wawa, strong Berdych, good Murray): 7 points
14 WB (deep draw but old Fed): 6 points
15 AO (Volatile Stan, Ok Murray): 5 points
15 WB (deep draw but old Fed): 6 points
15 USO: 4 points
16 AO: 4 points
16 FO: 4 points
18 WB (Nadal): 5 × 0.76 = 3.80 points
18 USO: 4 × 0.76 = 3.04 points
19 AO: 4 × 0.72 = 2.88 points
19 WB (Fed): 5 × 0.72 = 3.60 points
20 AO (decent Thiem): 5 × 0.69 = 3.45 points
21 AO: 4 × 0.65 = 2.60 points
21 WB: 4 × 0.65 = 2.60 points
21 FO (Nadal + Tsitsi): 6 × 0.65 = 3.9 points
22 WB: 4 × 0.62 = 2.48 points
23 AO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
23 FO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
23 USO: 4 × 0.59 = 2.36 points
TLDR; The big 3 are all more or less the same in terms of slam achievements, weighted by quality.
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