By the numbers: Federer's quest towards Connors' 109 titles

[Fedeonic]

Finally I have the time to make this thread.
As today, Federer has won 101 overall titles and 1198 matches. Jimmy Connors ended his career with 109 titles and 1256 matches won.

Stats relevant for this thread:
Connors: 1256 matches won, 1535 matches played, 109 titles, 81,82% W/L%, 11,523 matches won per title won, 14,083 matches played per title won.
Federer: 1198 matches won, 1460 matches played, 101 titles, 82,05% W/L%, 11,861 matches won per title won, 14,455 matches played per title won. 4,18 titles won since 2008 on average.

According to this table, Federer will reach Connors' matches won and/or matches played with aprox. 106 titles won. (Both marked in red)
But Federer will need aproximately 1293 matches won and/or 1576 matches played to reach Connors' 109 titles won.
*Note: The values of Connors are just speculated, those are not real data.

The graph of above shows the evolution probability considering the values mentioned above.

Federer has averaged 46 matches won since 2015, and 55 matches played since 2015, too. In the first 3 months since 2015 (until the Miami Open), Roger has averaged 16 matches won and 18 matches played. So the probable date of Fed reaching Connors' record of 109 titles is speculated to be after Miami 2021. Of course this is in a controlled scenario that Federer keeps playing well into his early 40s.

Discuss.

 

[Deleted member 733170]

All very fascinating but can you weight this data to acknowledge that Federer played against a professional tour with a lot of depth in every tournament, meanwhile Connors was mopping up trophies in Florida country clubs?

 

[Fedeonic]

All very fascinating but can you weight this data to acknowledge that Federer played against a professional tour with a lot of depth in every tournament, meanwhile Connors was mopping up trophies in Florida country clubs?

Well, that's the problem with numbers, they don't always tell you the whole picture. Ask Lew.
But I used numbers here to calculate the probability of when Federer will reach Connors' 109 titles, and which will be the critical points (numbers) in matches won and matches played to reach that record. Just a bit of linear equations and analytic geometry, which is more elaborated than the arbitrary numbers chosen by Lew.

 

[oldmanfan]

Well, that's the problem with numbers, they don't always tell you the whole picture. Ask Lew.
But I used numbers here to calculate the probability of when Federer will reach Connors' 109 titles, and which will be the critical points (numbers) in matches won and matches played to reach that record. Just a bit of linear equations and analytic geometry, which is more elaborated than the arbitrary numbers chosen by Lew.

inb4 Fedr wins 7 titles this year, throwing a wrench in your equations. I have a feeling you won't mind.

 

[Fedeonic]

inb4 Fedr wins 7 titles this year, throwing a wrench in your equations. I have a feeling you won't mind.

Of course I won't mind. But the stats are there and point what I say.
Since 2008, these are the titles won each year: 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 0, 7, 4. The mean is 4,18; the median is 4 and the mode is 4, so if I had to bet according to stats, no latter than 2021 Federer should be reaching or surpassing Connors. Last year was a wasted opportunity to be on 103 and not in 101 that he currently is, those Indian Wells and Halle finals can surely be very hurtful.

 

[EloQuent]

Just because you took a bunch of numbers and put them in excel and made some graphs doesn't mean they actually mean anything.

 

[acintya]

ah fed fans...how far you will go

 

[Sudacafan]

Good analysis effort, but without considering the relative strength of players in the tournaments played by Connors and Fed, the results may be misleading.

 

[ak24alive]

It is probably a very good prediction.
Basically you have him winning 4 titles a year.
A year starting from now and ending after Miami.
So beginning from now it will be 2 years after Miami 2021 and he will get to 109 titles presumably.
Lets see how he can win 4 a year.
Lets talk about the Mickey Mouse tournaments.
He plays 3 of those.
Dubai/Rotterdam, Halle, Basel.
Last year he won 2 of those.
Let's roll with that.
Then there are the 4-6 masters that he plays.
Expecting him to win 2 is a bit much.
Then the WTF and slams.
Don't expect him to win any of those.
So we will have to revisit the Mickey Mouse tourneys again.
Let's say one year he wins all 3. And another year he wins only 2.
One year he wins 2 masters. And another he wins 1.
And the slems and WTF will be a cherry on the top.
This prediction demands him to play at a high level for 2 more years.
I can see this happening but I can also see it not happening. We will see.
But I definitely don't see it happening before Miami 2021. If it happens so that he goes on a tear and wins the 109th sometime next year I will be delighted.

 

[Sudacafan]

Just because you took a bunch of numbers and put them in excel and made some graphs doesn't mean they actually mean anything.

I believe you are not an accountant.
I am offended.

 

[Keystoner]

Are you projecting his current win % to continue until 2021, the year he turns 40?

 

[Sudacafan]

Are you projecting his current win % to continue until 2021, the year he turns 40?

Whatever, the analysis is incomplete. I’d like to see the projection until 2041.

 

[Fedeonic]

It is probably a very good prediction.
Basically you have him winning 4 titles a year.
A year starting from now and ending after Miami.
So beginning from now it will be 2 years after Miami 2021 and he will get to 109 titles presumably.
Lets see how he can win 4 a year.
Lets talk about the Mickey Mouse tournaments.
He plays 3 of those.
Dubai/Rotterdam, Halle, Basel.
Last year he won 2 of those.
Let's roll with that.
Then there are the 4-6 masters that he plays.
Expecting him to win 2 is a bit much.
Then the WTF and slams.
Don't expect him to win any of those.
So we will have to revisit the Mickey Mouse tourneys again.
Let's say one year he wins all 3. And another year he wins only 2.
One year he wins 2 masters. And another he wins 1.
And the slems and WTF will be a cherry on the top.
This prediction demands him to play at a high level for 2 more years.
I can see this happening but I can also see it not happening. We will see.
But I definitely don't see it happening before Miami 2021. If it happens so that he goes on a tear and wins the 109th sometime next year I will be delighted.

A good analysis, this is mostly based on a controlled scenario of Federer averaging 4 titles from now on until 2021.
The most important part is that Federer should not fall off a cliff after reaching 38 yo, that's the completely irreversible decline, Karlovic only reached 2 finals (though last one was very close to actually winning it), Rosewall didn't won any Tier 1 tournament, Pancho Gonzales barely won titles at all and only won 5 ATP recognized titles (of course, guy was over 40 at that point).
Maybe the guys from FPPD can give us a bigger comparison and how they played after reaching 37 yo and 38 yo.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Well like most have said, if he keeps this level over the next two years he will find close to 10 tourney wins, if not I think he will retire. I see him playing this year out to see where he is at. If he falls outside the top 10, or after Miami 2020 falls outside the top 20 lets say, then he will eye 2020 Olympics or maybe the 2020 US open as his last tourney. If this is the case he is not getting to 109.

However, If he is still playing inside the top ten near the end of 2020, he will make one last go of it and shoot for 110. Once he hits that he will be about 40 and will have to be dipping in the rankings during that 2021 season. That is when I see him going on a "one last time" run.

Then again, I am not so sure it is up to Fed, but up to how Djokovic and Nadal age, as well as how good or not so good this new wave of NextGen are.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Let's take a look at the remaining tournaments this year Fed has a chance of winning:

Halle
Wimbledon
Cincy
Basel
Shanghei
YEC

(Others may add or subtract some of these venues)

Looking at this list, the most likely titles would come at Halle and Basel, giving him 4 titles this year. Is a 37-38 year old wins 4 titles in one year, that's jaw dropping.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

A good analysis, this is mostly based on a controlled scenario of Federer averaging 4 titles from now on until 2021.
The most important part is that Federer should not fall off a cliff after reaching 38 yo, that's the completely irreversible decline, Karlovic only reached 2 finals (though last one was very close to actually winning it), Rosewall didn't won any Tier 1 tournament, Pancho Gonzales barely won titles at all and only won 5 ATP recognized titles (of course, guy was over 40 at that point).
Maybe the guys from FPPD can give us a bigger comparison and how they played after reaching 37 yo and 38 yo.

Federer is now the second oldest Tier 1 tournament winner in the Open era (thanks to NoMercy for the tip), ahead of Rosewall. Gonzales is the oldest, winning several in his 40s (considering he turned 40 two months into OE...), and the last one at 43 (beating 19 y.o. Connors in the latter's second career final and setting a record age difference for a final). Rosewall did reach Wimbledon and USO finals months short of 40, which is more impressive than winning a masters.

 

[Luka888]

Ok. OK. Who cares? The stats are not that convincing for too many different reasons.

The fact is that Federer is a much better player than Jimmy. He'll probably catch up if he cares. I don't think he does. Only tennis nerds know these numbers

 

[Artificial Grass]

It is probably a very good prediction.
Basically you have him winning 4 titles a year.
A year starting from now and ending after Miami.
So beginning from now it will be 2 years after Miami 2021 and he will get to 109 titles presumably.
Lets see how he can win 4 a year.
Lets talk about the Mickey Mouse tournaments.
He plays 3 of those.
Dubai/Rotterdam, Halle, Basel.
Last year he won 2 of those.
Let's roll with that.
Then there are the 4-6 masters that he plays.
Expecting him to win 2 is a bit much.
Then the WTF and slams.
Don't expect him to win any of those.
So we will have to revisit the Mickey Mouse tourneys again.
Let's say one year he wins all 3. And another year he wins only 2.
One year he wins 2 masters. And another he wins 1.
And the slems and WTF will be a cherry on the top.
This prediction demands him to play at a high level for 2 more years.
I can see this happening but I can also see it not happening. We will see.
But I definitely don't see it happening before Miami 2021. If it happens so that he goes on a tear and wins the 109th sometime next year I will be delighted.

Great post.

Just curious for fun though, if ATP 500 tourneys are 'Mickey Mouse' tourneys, what is your preferred term for ATP 250s?

 

[ak24alive]

Great post.

Just curious for fun though, if ATP 500 tourneys are 'Mickey Mouse' tourneys, what is your preferred term for ATP 250s?

'Minnie Mouse' maybe?