Can Alcaraz realistically become #1 before IW25?

J

Jonas78

G.O.A.T.
Edit: IW26 of course.

Sinner has 12030, Alcaraz 8600. Sinner has lots of points to defend from now until IW, but has a 3430p lead. Alcaraz has not that many points to defend. From IW Sinner has nothing to defend until Rome because of the ban, and he will highly likely gain massively on Alcaraz.

Can Alcaraz realistically become #1 before IW?
 
Jonas78 said:
Yeah with all the points Sinner needs to defend, its unlikely he will gain any more until IW? Who do you most likely think is #1 after AO26?
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Sinner has very few points to gain before then, with really only Canada, and Paris as places he can pick up points.

Alcaraz can gain points virtually everywhere, he next to nothing to defend this summer NA season, then after that Beijing final, more points to gain for the rest of the season, and he can gain points by makes the semis or finals at AO.

The point swing can be massive, because Sinner can lose points at the same time.
 
Too hard to answer the question yet though, but it will be interesting time for both, especially Sinner.
 
Alcaraz is currently just over 1500 points ahead in the race. But he really has done almost nothing of note, besides his lone US Open win, post-Wimbledon in previous years. Sinner last year won two masters, the US Open and the ATP finals. So unless Alcaraz is substantially better this year than in previous years, Sinner will probably pass him.

Alcaraz could potentially make gains at the AO next year of course.

I think it's unlikely Alcaraz dethrones Sinner before IW next year but it's certainly possible
 
Towny said:
Alcaraz is currently just over 1500 points ahead in the race. But he really has done almost nothing of note, besides his lone US Open win, post-Wimbledon in previous years. Sinner last year won two masters, the US Open and the ATP finals. So unless Alcaraz is substantially better this year than in previous years, Sinner will probably pass him.

Alcaraz could potentially make gains at the AO next year of course.

I think it's unlikely Alcaraz dethrones Sinner before IW next year but it's certainly possible
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1500 is quite impressive, given he couldnt play 4 master tourneys. I agree he is fav to hold the #1 position into the early HC season, but Alcaraz has a chance.
 
Kralingen said:
I feel like every Alcaraz question or hypothetical can be answered by : “yes, if he fires Ferrero”
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Sinner has played 5 tournaments and has gained 6000 points. And we’re now in his favorite part of the season. I don’t see Alcaraz or anyone taking his number 1 ranking. He’s gonna be an ATG after Australian Open 2026
 
dking68 said:
Sinner has played 5 tournaments and has gained 6000 points. And we’re now in his favorite part of the season. I don’t see Alcaraz or anyone taking his number 1 ranking.
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Sinner also has an amazing 6,030 points earned from the 2024 events he played from now until the end of the year. That's a huge number to defend. In contrast, Alcaraz is defending a measly 1,060 points for the same period of time. That's an incredible difference of almost 5,000 points! Alcaraz doesn't have to do better than Sinner in the last phases of the season in order to make up the current deficit of 3,430 points and surpass Sinner in the rankings. He just needs to do a lot better than he, Alcaraz, did in 2024 -- and that's not really a daunting task. The no. 1 and no. 2 spots could be very close by the end of the year, and there's certainly a realistic prospect of Sinner's being passed, even if he again performs very well.
 
JMR said:
Sinner also has an amazing 6,030 points earned from the 2024 events he played from now until the end of the year. That's a huge number to defend. In contrast, Alcaraz is defending a measly 1,060 points for the same period of time. That's an incredible difference of almost 5,000 points! Alcaraz doesn't have to do better than Sinner in the last phases of the season in order to make up the current deficit of 3,430 points and surpass Sinner in the rankings. He just needs to do a lot better than he, Alcaraz, did in 2024 -- and that's not really a daunting task. The no. 1 and no. 2 spots could be very close by the end of the year, and there's certainly a realistic prospect of Sinner's being passed, even if he again performs very well.
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Sinner has won 2 slams lol. And he’s the overwhelming favorite for the third, and hardcourt is where he thrives
 
dking68 said:
Sinner has won 2 slams lol.
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What does "won 2 slams lol" mean? We're discussing the ATP rankings, and the points from those wins are already factored in.

dking68 said:
And he’s the overwhelming favorite for the third, and hardcourt is where he thrives
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Missing the point, big time. Do you understand how the ranking system works? Sinner won the U.S. Open last year. He "thrived" on the hard courts last year. All those points are already built into his current ranking. He has to win everything again just to stay at his current number. Meanwhile, Alcaraz had a mostly lousy summer and fall hardcourt season in 2024 and thus now has a huge capacity for adding new ranking points from these events. He can potentially pass Sinner without beating Sinner.
 
its the 3rd year now where we expect Alcaraz to have a great HC season. He failed in last 2 years. So the question is how likely this year will be different? Very unlikely. Wouldnt be surprised if gets eliminated in the earlier rounds in Canada, Cincy and US Open. Honestly he doesnt look to me like ATG material on HC
 
Jonas78 said:
Edit: IW26 of course.

Sinner has 12030, Alcaraz 8600. Sinner has lots of points to defend from now until IW, but has a 3430p lead. Alcaraz has not that many points to defend. From IW Sinner has nothing to defend until Rome because of the ban, and he will highly likely gain massively on Alcaraz.

Can Alcaraz realistically become #1 before IW?
Click to expand...
He will not care one bit about being no.1. Alcaraz lives for the slams. If he wins USO i can guarantee he will only put in a token effort until January. Sinner cares more about being no.1, it sort of mirrors their respective personalities. Sinner more steady and consistent, Alcaraz more volatile and inconsistent but can raise his levels to unprecedented heights and prefers Bo5 format.
 
JMR said:
Sinner also has an amazing 6,030 points earned from the 2024 events he played from now until the end of the year. That's a huge number to defend. In contrast, Alcaraz is defending a measly 1,060 points for the same period of time. That's an incredible difference of almost 5,000 points! Alcaraz doesn't have to do better than Sinner in the last phases of the season in order to make up the current deficit of 3,430 points and surpass Sinner in the rankings. He just needs to do a lot better than he, Alcaraz, did in 2024 -- and that's not really a daunting task. The no. 1 and no. 2 spots could be very close by the end of the year, and there's certainly a realistic prospect of Sinner's being passed, even if he again performs very well.
Click to expand...

Exactly. There aren't any points for Sinner to gain, while there are hardly any points for Alcaraz to lose. Sinner earns no points in the rankings if he beats Alcaraz in the USO final, while Carlos (only defending 50 points) would earn 1250. A reverse victory would result in Carlos earning 1950 points and Sinner losing 700.
 
It's possible of course. Tho I think Sinner is favored to keep it at least up until the AO next year

As of right now Alcaraz had 1.5k points in the race, menaing he must not let Sinner win more than that compared to him on HC.
 
JMR said:
Sinner also has an amazing 6,030 points earned from the 2024 events he played from now until the end of the year. That's a huge number to defend. In contrast, Alcaraz is defending a measly 1,060 points for the same period of time. That's an incredible difference of almost 5,000 points! Alcaraz doesn't have to do better than Sinner in the last phases of the season in order to make up the current deficit of 3,430 points and surpass Sinner in the rankings. He just needs to do a lot better than he, Alcaraz, did in 2024 -- and that's not really a daunting task. The no. 1 and no. 2 spots could be very close by the end of the year, and there's certainly a realistic prospect of Sinner's being passed, even if he again performs very well.
Click to expand...
Still - another way to see it, is that Carlo "only" leads the race by 1540p. If Sinner can gain more than 1540p more than Carlo from now to year end, Sinner will still be #1 at year end. Based on history, i think its more likely than unlikely, that Sinner will win 1540+p more than Alcaraz until year end.
 
Djumhur said:
its the 3rd year now where we expect Alcaraz to have a great HC season. He failed in last 2 years. So the question is how likely this year will be different? Very unlikely. Wouldnt be surprised if gets eliminated in the earlier rounds in Canada, Cincy and US Open. Honestly he doesnt look to me like ATG material on HC
Click to expand...
This years later HC swing could be a decider. If he fails once again he has a few decisions to make.
 
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