Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Speranza, Jul 16, 2017 at 12:28 PM.
hahaha.....right analysis..the knees thou.
I was not talking about you. I am more comfortable responding to you over the more aggressive violent types on here. Agree with your post.
Oh ok. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Let's put 19 slams in perspective. That's like winning 2 slams for nine years + 1 more year of 1 slam win. It's not just about the ability but also about longevity. It will take a long time to reach to 19 for any players in the future. I think Nadal is the most likely guy to get there simply because he is the closets and he is still active and on a high level, but even for him, 19 slams seems too far to reach. Maybe another genius of tennis will appear in the future and sweeps 4 slams for 2 years in a row or something and we may witness him winning 19 or more slams.
Nadal has got the best shot, but it's hard to predict the future. If he slides back into 2015/2016 form AND Djokovic returns to form, then he could struggle. Otherwise it's purely down to his physical state as to whether he is massive favourite for RG. This year he's proved he's in good shape, so can see him winning 2 or 3 more RG titles as a realistic figure if he stays in good condition and keeps playing well. That's puts him within striking distance. Wimbledon looks too tough unless he gets major luck with the draw and avoids any players who have big serves and can play on grass. As seen in Australia he has a chance at the HC slams. Federer could be directly in control of things as he may be the only person able to beat Nadal at the US Open. 20 > 15 would be a big gap, 19>16 is much more reachable.
Now once Fed, Rafa and Nole have retired, I think really it's going to be a while before anyone comes close to whatever record is the new target
Federer missed quite some opportunities to win slams between 2010-2016. So it would only take a player as talented and driven as Federer, with same longevity but with better conversion rate of opportunities. That player could win 25 slams or more. We might see it, but maybe not yet with next generation which seems useless.
But that is impossible, no? Nadal only loses when injured, no?
Nadal and Djokovic both has chances. Nadal more so because he is a lock for another 3-4 French Opens and may pick 1-2 slams on the way.
Djokovic needs to have more 2015 years to do it.
And in the coming say 100 years definitely there will be a champ winning 20 plus slams
First let's see where Federer finishes. 20 is bare minimum
I know we're all excited about the re-emergence of Fed and Nadal - their return to Slam champion form this year has been incredible. But, you really think Nadal is "a lock" for 3-4 more French Opens? That's a lot of years. I want to be positive, but I wouldn't assume he keeps up 2017 French Open form for that long or that either player avoids a relative "slump" (not a horrible slump, but simply not playing as peerlessly as they have been and thus the chances of an upset are greater) at various times over the next few years.
In 2014 December, I would have said Nadal.
In 2016 December, I would have said Djokovic.
Currently, it's too early to say. If Fed wins this years USO, I think we can safely exclude Nadal and Djokovic from the conversation. It will be a very long time until we see someone approach 20.
Personally, 22 slams is a very safe number for men's tennis and we might not see it broken in our lifetime. If Roger achieves that, mission accomplished. No one can touch it ever.
A La Decima at Wimbledon would also be awesome, but it is tough envisioning Roger winning it in 2019. He really wasted 2 good opportunities in 2014 and 2015.
BTW, I disagree Nadal being a lock at FO for multiple years. In a way, Nadal is a huge anomaly on clay, which should be by far the toughest tournament to win as a repeat champion since it requires so much grinding. I personally felt that the young gen. caved meekly against Nadal given his aura (Thiem did manage to end his insane run at Rome finally, and I hope that more players stand up to him through the clay season next year). It also didn't help matters that Djokovic and Wawrinka had huge down years and Federer didn't even play (yes, just the fact that Federer would play would have made the FO far more competitive). Even if Federer continues skipping the FO, I don't think the stars will continue aligning for Nadal. If he can be denied for an year or two, he will continue getting older and his chances to add to his tally would diminish forever. As of now, I think he will win 1 more FO and finish with 16 slams.
The difference of 4 just too small to be not surpassed/at least equalled by Nadal. If Federer gets to 22 Slams, then most probably nobody will equal him unless they introduce a fifth Slam.
It's true but Nadal is 31, and since 2013, he hasn't won anything other than a FO.
It's also true though that Federer himself had won a grand total of 2 slams (!!!) in a 7 year span (2010-2016) before going on a tear this year. So things can change in a hurry and if stars do align for Nadal next year, he might go on a tear himself.
If Nadal declines physically, 4 slams is going to be impossible. Even 1 slam will be out of question. Tennis is a game of inches. We can only speculate!
But yeah...because the gap is still an insanely small 4 slams (Nadal being a lock at FO almost guarantees it), this USO and pretty much the whole of 2018 is hugely important for Fed. And he better get to 22 slams!
I think Nadal is winning at least 2 more Slams. Before this FO I used to think he would retire with 14 itself. But his level really surprised me. Certainly didn't expect after failures of 2015-16.
Federer had Djokovic/Nadal denying him 5-6 Slams in 2010-16. Who Nadal has? Dimitrov? Raonic? They won't going to stop in form Nadal.
And yes next 5 Slams are very significant in grand scheme of things (especially next 2). If Nadal fails to win USO/AO and Federer wins #20, Fed' record is safe imo.
Never gonna happen.
Nadal will not string together back to back FO's up to the age of 35. it's not gonna happen. Ever.
So with Fed/Nole/Nadal/Stan/Murray in retirement, the hunters are starting from absolute zero.
The current crop of players young enough to feasibly play 10 more years are players like:
On the outside, Chung & Tiafoe et al.
Can you imagine any of them with the longevity and style of play to allow them to win multiple slams every year for the duration of their career?
Just think, the one "slip" with a measly lone slam one year will put the entire chase in jeopardy.
So, again, never gonna happen.
It's even hard to believe they will 19 non slam tournaments.
No one we have heard of now, but it will be broken one day in the next 50 years
again, Nadal remains the only ATG to win all the slams and win multiple slams on all the surfaces!
please try and wrap your mind around that, I know it must be hard for you, but I believe you can do it.
as such, Nadal is singular in this aspect and remains supreme, just like he's the only person ever to win any slam 10 times.
nice try though...
The 19 will stand for a while. I have a feeling it won't be broken until all the current ATG retire and allow a fresh face to build a dynasty
Possibly Nadal but it will take an in form Federer or Novak to stop him.
Seeing how Fed wasted several years prior grinding his gears slamless, he missed valuable time that could have given him another 2 or 3. As good as he's doing now, he'll need at least two more to sit comfortably.
For as incredible as he's playing at 35, who's to say Novak or Rafa WON'T experience a similar resurgence in dominance in the near future. These guys are JUST as relentless, don't even think about overlooking their determination to surpass his records.
"Life is a storm, my young friend. You will bask in the sunlight one moment, and be shattered on the rocks the next. What makes you a man is what you do when that storm comes."
Records are meant to be broken. Nothing lasts forever. If not Nadal or Djokovic, there could be someone (who might not be born yet) smashing all kind of records in 30 years from now. People who are saying it'll stand the test of time are either overconfident or simply ignorant.
Nadal can. RG he's unstoppable and has legit shots at the USO if he's healthy.
Two players can surpass Fred:
Serena and Vergeer.
Serena already has more slams than Federer. If Serena is the greatest tennis player ever then Federer is the greatest athlete ever. Vergeer is also retired.
I voted next-gen and I didn't have the Kyrgios and Zverev generation in mind. If they're the ones to do it, they'd have to be winning now starting with the USO.
Until Fed, Nadal, and even Djoko retires there's not going to be anyone who can clean house like Federer did in his early years. It'll be players after the Tiafoe and Escobedo generation.
Can is a big category.
Will is minuscule.
Probably not for many, many years.
No, and it doesn't take much working out to see why.
If Federer had won 0 Wimbledon titles, he'd still be tied at 5th on the all-time slam list and still be as close to Nadal's GS count as Nadal is to Federer now. 4 slams doesn't seem like much, but I can't see Nadal winning that many without Federer winning any. It's taken Nadal 5 years to amass his most recent 4 and he's only won 1 in the last 3 years.
He'll win another couple, I think, but I also think Federer will win at least one more too.
There Is No Hiding From Roger Federer
If we're generous and give Nadal 50% chance of winning RG for the next 4 years, that means it's a roughly 6% chance he wins the next 4 (giving him those kind of odds is ridiculous for 33,34,35 year old.) Of course he can do it, but it's highly unlikely.
For all intents and purposes one needs 10 years minimum to get 20 Slams.
I just don't see it with young guys right now except maybe Zverev if he wins USO or a Sl LA m next year.
Most of the Fedfan "Nadal" posts are in response to deluded posts like yours
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