Can Djokovic Defend all These Points Next Year?

A

Atherton2003

Hall of Fame
I doubt Djokovic can repeat what he did this year, for next year - he will have to win virtually everything just to not lose any points....that is where Nadal will catch up to him. I have a feeling #1 will go back and forth between Djokovic and Nadal....
 
No he will not defend all these points next year. But Nadal will have to pick up the points he drops - It could be split between other guys, or someone who is not a direct threat.

For instance, if Nadal loses the French Open final, he's dropping points. In one scenario Djokovic picks up the dropped points (wins title) and nadal loses the number one ranking. In another scenario (unlikly yeah I know) Federer beats him in the final and Nadal just holds on to the top ranking. It's who picks up the points.

Plus, if Novak ends the year as number one, how far will he be in front? Say Nadal loses here, has a loss of confidence, drops a lot of points at Wimbledon and the US Open, say a couple of quarters, or even a 4th round and a quarter, Novak could be so far in front that even dropping points next year he'll have a big lead to fall back on
 
Remember, Nadal was in the lead by about 5,000 points at the start of this year and somehow is about to lose #1 ranking to Djokovic.
 
You seem to forget the points he will pile on the rest of the year.
These will make defending each point a little less important.
 
Yes, but Nadal won everything last year - and had about a 5,000 point lead early this year, but he could not win every tournament - even though he had a good year - reason being that Djokovic beat him in the Finals of all the tournaments he won last year. So if Nadal turns the tables and does the same to Djokovic next year - Djokovic could lose #1 ranking in a jiffy if he does not duplicate everything he did this year.
 
Atherton2003 said:
Yes, but Nadal won everything last year - and had about a 5,000 point lead early this year, but he could not win every tournament - even though he had a good year - reason being that Djokovic beat him in the Finals of all the tournaments he won last year. So if Nadal turns the tables and does the same to Djokovic next year - Djokovic could lose #1 ranking in a jiffy if he does not duplicate everything he did this year.
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Point is that there's a difference between Nadal winning everything/Djokovic losing everything.
 
Imagine if Djokovic gets knocked out of tournaments in the early rounds of which he won this year....it could be that once Djokovic starts losing, it might affect him and he'll go on a "losing streak" and then everyone will talk about how he is all washed up.
 
Atherton2003 said:
Remember, Nadal was in the lead by about 5,000 points at the start of this year and somehow is about to lose #1 ranking to Djokovic.
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This is only because the same guy has won 7 titles in a row. In a normal year Nadal could have lost these points and still been in a decent lead. But this is some crazy year when a player starts knocking down an winning steak record. I don't see anyone doing that next year.

But here's something interesting. To be honest Nadal has not even lost taht many points. He's lost 800 in the clay season so far, but gained 500 from Barca. so that's only 300 down. Then he gained 480 for finals in IW and Miami, so that's UP 180, 60 points lost from Doha... but that's still up overall. Is that correct? By my calculations Nadal should have added points so far.. sucks for him that Novak is winning like this haha.
 
I know - he is having a great year - except that Novak is having a better year and has won everything....Nadal is actually up by a few points - but Novak is unbeatable - nothing he could do about it.
 
Djokovic going undefeated for 6 months at the start of 2012 is highly unlikely. If Nadal can stay close to him it will up the pressure on Djokovic when trying to defend his titles.

Quite a bit also depends on whether Nadal can win the FO, Wimbledon and/or the USO. That will be the determining factor on whether Nadal can stay close to Djokovic's point total at the end of 2011.
 
Atherton2003 said:
I know - he is having a great year - except that Novak is having a better year and has won everything....Nadal is actually up by a few points - but Novak is unbeatable - nothing he could do about it.
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The only thing he could have done was won everything himself, but defending points has not been enough... he needed maximum points from a few more tournaments. I didn't actually realise he'd added points til just now. That's crazy..
 
Atherton2003 said:
If he wins French Open, Wimbledon and US Open...he would have a huge lead again.
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Who, Nadal this season? If he wins RG he'll be about 40 points ahead of Djokovic. Winning the US will not let him gain any ground if Djokovic reaches the final again, and Djokovic could go further in Wimbledon and add points from a final even if Nadal wins... so it's kind of out of Nadal's hands. Or course the masters could play a part in the points, but Djokovic is not defending any wins for the rest of the year, only a 500 in Shanghai I think.
 
What if Djokovic is knocked out of Wimbledon and US Open in the early rounds - and Nadal wins those tournaments - I mean Djokovic is capable of being beaten eventually.
 
Bud said:
Djokovic going undefeated for 6 months at the start of 2012 is highly unlikely. If Nadal can stay close to him it will up the pressure on Djokovic when trying to defend his titles.

Quite a bit also depends on whether Nadal can win the FO, Wimbledon and/or the USO. That will be the determining factor on whether Nadal can stay close to Djokovic's point total at the end of 2011.
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It's next to impossible. And it's also very, very possible that Nadal is the one to pick the points up. Who else will it be?
 
MichaelNadal said:
It's next to impossible. And it's also very, very possible that Nadal is the one to pick the points up. Who else will it be?
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Del Potro, Murray maybe?

Last year IW and Miami went to Lubie and A-Rod. A few weird results could happen. But yeah Nadal is the most likely threat.
 
Yes. I don't think Djokovic will lose a match for the nest two years. I expect him to lose his first match since 2010 in Brisbane 2013. Perhaps to Golubev or Korolev in the quarters.

In 2013 he might drop the top ranking.

And when I say nest I mean next.
 
You know, I don't think next year will be just as this one, with really only two guys battling it out. I think someone else will come and started being competitive with both Rafa and Novak. However, I'm not saying it will be Murray, Roger, or even Del Potro. It will be someone else, I guess.
 
TopFH said:
You know, I don't think next year will be just as this one, with really only two guys battling it out. I think someone else will come and started being competitive with both Rafa and Novak. However, I'm not saying it will be Murray, Roger, or even Del Potro. It will be someone else, I guess.
Click to expand...

It will be Korolev, Golubev or Gulbis. One of those three.
 
Unlikely because DelPo will come by and break Nole's streak of longest wins before finally losing in Wimby. Murray finals breaks the streak and wins his first slam beating nole in the finals. Rog is beaten up bad but miraculously resurges to take the Gold on the lawns of Wimby. Yes, everybody has forgotten abt Rafa.
 
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