Can Djokovic win FO this year ?

TennisHockey

New User
Despite the back to back RG finals for the Austrian, I do think Djokovic has the better chance than him. Nadal is the favourite if course, but if Nadal is somehow taken out earlier, I think Djokovic will win.
 

nachiket nolefam

Hall of Fame
Novak can lose to Nadal/Thiem/Stan/Zverev/Medvedev in RG. Not a strong favorite. He might reach semis but his days of winning on clay are past him.

Hopefully Thiem takes down Nadal.
 

Sport

Legend
Let’s say Nadal defeats Thiem 16-14 in a 5th set after 6 hours in the SF, while Djokovic straight sets Goffin in the SF. I’d say Novak’s chances would be pretty solid.
For the sake of the argument, I will accept your premise as plausible. Nadal would still be the absolute favorite, even in the mentioned circumstances. Nadal played a 5 sets and 5 hours QF against Delpo at WB 2018 and still was not tired in the SF against Novak.

But your premise is not plausible and will simply not happen. Thiem has only won 1 set against Nadal in their last 3 RG meetings, with Nadal winning many of their sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-1, etc. Most likely, either Thiem finally beats Nadal or Nadal will finish him soon as usual. Even if it goes to 5 sets, it won't be a 6 hours 16-14 in the last set. On clay, breaks are pretty common, and a 16-14 in the last set of a RG match has never happened in the history of RG. It won't happen for the first time in history just to fullfill your wet dreams, forget about that.
 

GoldenSwing

Rookie
The roof for Phillippe-Chatrier is actually already in place.

This will favor Djokovic more against Thiem and Nadal who rely on the sun for a higher and slower bounce.
Not to mention there are rumors of the French Open using less bouncier balls this year.

Novak certainly has a good shot, but I would say Thiem or Nadal are the favorites. Nadal in my opinion, might crumble against Djokovic just because Novak can read his game so well now.
 

Enceladus

Hall of Fame
Novak can win, of course, but Nadal and Thiem are bigger favorites than Nole.
Let's not forget this year's AO final, which although Djoker won, but had big problems with Thiem. On clay, Dominic will be an even more difficult opponent.
If Thiem will be placed in Nadal's half of draw, it would increase Djoker's chances for the title.
 
The roof for Phillippe-Chatrier is actually already in place.

This will favor Djokovic more against Thiem and Nadal who rely on the sun for a higher and slower bounce.
Not to mention there are rumors of the French Open using less bouncier balls this year.

Novak certainly has a good shot, but I would say Thiem or Nadal are the favorites. Nadal in my opinion, might crumble against Djokovic just because Novak can read his game so well now.
Yes, the organizers are definitely Djokovic fanboys and they do everything to help him win it. If he does, it should not count as a slam. Because Federer and Nadal always had to win tournaments, they never won because the organizers helped them.
 

Sport

Legend
The roof for Phillippe-Chatrier is actually already in place.

This will favor Djokovic more against Thiem and Nadal who rely on the sun for a higher and slower bounce.
Not to mention there are rumors of the French Open using less bouncier balls this year.

Novak certainly has a good shot, but I would say Thiem or Nadal are the favorites. Nadal in my opinion, might crumble against Djokovic just because Novak can read his game so well now.
Novak can't "read Nadal's game" so well on clay in recent times. Since 2017, Nadal dominates Djokovic 3-0 on clay meetings and the last match ended up with Nadal winning two sets 6-0 and 6-1.

Djokovic has never defeated Nadal in a RG final or semifinal, so he definetely doesn't read his game well at RG.
 

Sport

Legend
Novak can win, of course, but Nadal and Thiem are bigger favorites than Nole.
Let's not forget this year's AO final, which although Djoker won, but had big problems with Thiem. On clay, Dominic will be an even more difficult opponent.
If Thiem will be placed in Nadal's half of draw, it would increase Djoker's chances for the title.
Excellent coment. Thank you. This is the best comment I have read in the comment section of this thread: a perfectly rational summary of Djokovic's chances at this year's RG.
 

Enceladus

Hall of Fame
Yes, the organizers are definitely Djokovic fanboys and they do everything to help him win it. If he does, it should not count as a slam. Because Federer and Nadal always had to win tournaments, they never won because the organizers helped them.
This post is purebred trolling :rolleyes:(n)
 

Krish0608

Hall of Fame
FO doesn't exist anymore. From now on this indoor tournament is called the Djokovic Open. He not only can, he is pretty much a lock to win it now. The organizers are his fans and did everything to make sure he wins it. Roof, schedule, new balls, new court, everything is perfect for him now.

But how exactly will it make him the GOAT? Just because he is going to win a tournament where the organizers already did everything to help him win it? Sorry, no.
I can already feel an Epic StrongRule summer coming up. It's gonna be good no matter what!
 

HuusHould

Professional
Lost it the the conditions and himself more closely. That was a brain fart. Not happy not playing in this ;display.
From what I heard he left the venue before they'd decided to postpone it? He very nearly snatched it when they came back on though, I felt a bit sorry for Thiem, but he managed to hold his nerve.
 

ChaelAZ

Legend
Thiem has the best chance for the FO, but I think Nadal is vulernerable this year.

That said, there is no GOAT status on the line with a FO win or loss.

- Djo moves closer with a win
- Fed moves further ahead with a win
- Nadal ties with a win

Thiem for the win tho!
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
No with only 18 Slams when both of his biggest rivals would still have more Majors than him.

I don't know why are Novak fans so impatient. If Djokovic is destinied to end up as the clear GOAT, he will get the Slam record.
The question is, can 2 slams less make a difference in that case against achievements like NCYGS, DCGS and winning all masters ? This things can't be ignored and I am saying it as a Federer fan.It's a complicated scenario and it won't be good news for Federer and Nadal in the debate, that's for sure.
 

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd be confident in a final appearance if Nadal gets Thiem in his half of the draw. And if those two have a five set war, you never know. Not counting on that though. Nadal needs to be in average form to be denied and that hardly ever happens at RG.
 
All are saying thiem will play a part in which half he lands but there is a case if he can be 2nd in rankings by rg and this is a possibility although unlikely especially if he goes on a great run in the clay masters.
 

Hitman

Hall of Fame
All are saying thiem will play a part in which half he lands but there is a case if he can be 2nd in rankings by rg and this is a possibility although unlikely especially if he goes on a great run in the clay masters.
You think Thiem is going to overtake both Federer and Nadal for second place? Especially Nadal?
 

Tennisfan339

New User
If he CAN? Of course.
The key is he has to avoid Thiem in SF. If he gets Federer, he would easily beat him in SF (if Federer even reaches the SF) If Nadal gets Thiem in SF and Djokovic in final, it will be difficult for him.
I think Djokovic beats Thiem in final, but beating Thiem and Nadal in a row on clay would be incredibly difficult.
Medvedev lost in 1st round last year and he seems weak at the moment. Same for Tsitsipas, so I doubt they could WIN the FO. We'll see for Zverev but I think it's between Nadal Thiem and Djokovic.

I say Nadal 40%
Djokovic 30%
Thiem 20%
Other players 10%
 
Djokovic on clay to be honest is beatable even by someone else apart from thiem, nadal ..I feel medvedev, tsitsipas can cause djokovic trouble on clay since djokovic's weakest surface is clay and if you see last 2-3 years you may see a pattern of him being not that type who can be calked as winner before stepping on court against 95% players.
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm honestly shocked to see so many people, even staunch Novak fans, giving him little chance to win another FO.

Sure, he may lose before the final to someone like Thiem, but I believe if he makes the final and faces Nadal, he beats him on Chatrier. He owns Nadal mentally and it doesn't matter if Rafa's obviously the much superior player on clay. Look at how Djokovic has dismantled Federer, who is the much better grass player. It's all mental at this point between the big 3. I say Djokovic beats Nadal in a presumptive RG final in 4 sets. Rafa looked pretty ordinary last clay season by Rafa standards before he turned on beast mode at RG. He'll be 34 and that beast mode can't just magically be summoned at this point.
 
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uscwang

Hall of Fame
If he CAN? Of course.
The key is he has to avoid Thiem in SF. If he gets Federer, he would easily beat him in SF (if Federer even reaches the SF) If Nadal gets Thiem in SF and Djokovic in final, it will be difficult for him.
I think Djokovic beats Thiem in final, but beating Thiem and Nadal in a row on clay would be incredibly difficult.
Medvedev lost in 1st round last year and he seems weak at the moment. Same for Tsitsipas, so I doubt they could WIN the FO. We'll see for Zverev but I think it's between Nadal Thiem and Djokovic.

I say Nadal 40%
Djokovic 30%
Thiem 20%
Other players 10%
Sounds about right to me.
But considering Thiem will have to go through Novak AND Nadal, I won't give him more than 10% of winning.
Nadal 45%
Novak 35%
Thiem 10%
Others 10%
 

uscwang

Hall of Fame
He did it in the last Olympic year, so why not.
Wow, it's been that long ago.
Novak is still one of only two players, and the only active player to have beaten Nadal at RG.
Let's see if he can do the unthinkable, beating Nadal twice at RG.
 
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DSH

Legend
I'm honestly shocked to see so many people, even staunch Novak fans, giving him little chance to win another FO.

Sure, he may lose before the final to someone like Thiem, but I believe if he makes the final and faces Nadal, he beats him on Chatrier. He owns Nadal mentally and it doesn't matter if Rafa's obviously the much superior player on clay. Look at how Djokovic has dismantled Federer, who is the much better grass player. It's all mental at this point between the big 3. I say Djokovic beats Nadal in a presumptive RG final in 4 sets. Rafa looked pretty ordinary last clay season by Rafa standards before he turned on beast mode at RG. He'll be 34 and that beast mode can't just magically be summoned at this point.
Let's see what you say. Djokovic, like Nadal in the AO, has only won once the title of RG in 15 attempts and that the Spaniard, comparatively, has played an additional final in his "worst" Slam.

Now, while it is true that the Serbian "owns" Nadal mentally (at least on hard courts), you are absolutely wrong when you say that this situation of dominance of one over the other does not matter if this match up moves to the clay, the Nadal's favorite surface and especially in RG, where we already know the domain and contingency history of the latter.

That Djokovic has won that match against Federer in Wimbledon has no absolute relevance if it comes to an eventual final between the two best players in the world.

Not only the Spaniard is much better than the Swiss in their respective favorite GS tournaments but also that there is no excessive age difference that decays the balance of one over the other at least when playing in the Nadal domain.

And there comes the last emphasis: although it is true that the Bull will turn 34 in June of this year, it is also true that Nole will be 33 years before the French Open begins, which invalidates your assumption (emotional, by the way ) that only the first one will show signs of decline when we can already see that Djokovic will have more bad days than what has been shown so far and that with only his mental strength will not be enough to keep winning even matches.

That he has won the last two GS finals to 5 sets to rivals who were very tired does not anticipate a promising future when the situation is contrary to his interests.
He is the third favorite to win RG but not beyond that as many would like it to be.
 
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PMChambers

Hall of Fame
From what I heard he left the venue before they'd decided to postpone it? He very nearly snatched it when they came back on though, I felt a bit sorry for Thiem, but he managed to hold his nerve.
To be fare to Djok as someone who used to wear contact lenses, conditions like that are terrible.
They don't suit his game as his margins are small but dust grinding into the eyeball hurts like hell and causes minor scaring that's annoying for a few days.
I would go to sandy beach with contacts, had to invest in good set of binoculars instead.
 

Sport

Legend
I say Nadal 40%
Djokovic 30%
Thiem 20%
Maybe in your imagination. So Nadal with 12 RG titles, who has won the last 3 RG in a row and is the current defending champion is only 10% more favorite than a Djokovic with only 1 RG title who has never defeated Nadal in a RG final or semifinal? And Djokovic is 10% more favorite than Thiem despite the fact that Thiem is 6 years younger than Djokovic and has had better results at RG than Djokovic since 2017?
 
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Sport

Legend
The question is not whether he wins FO, but if he wants to.
That is not even a question, Djokovic said after he won the AO that his focus is on Slams. Of course he wants to win that elusive second RG to achieve the Double Career Grand Slam and get closer to the Slam record.
 

Sport

Legend
Let's see what you say. Djokovic, like Nadal in the AO, has only won once the title of RG in 15 attempts and that the Spaniard, comparatively, has played an additional final in his "worst" Slam.

Now, while it is true that the Serbian "owns" Nadal mentally (at least on hard courts), you are absolutely wrong when you say that this situation of dominance of one over the other does not matter if this match up moves to the clay, the Nadal's favorite surface and especially in RG, where we already know the domain and contingency history of the latter.

That Djokovic has won that match against Federer in Wimbledon has no absolute relevance if it comes to an eventual final between the two best players in the world.

Not only the Spaniard is much better than the Swiss in their respective favorite GS tournaments but also that there is no excessive age difference that decays the balance of one over the other at least when playing in the Nadal domain.

And there comes the last emphasis: although it is true that the Bull will turn 34 in June of this year, it is also true that Nole will be 33 years before the French Open begins, which invalidates your assumption (emotional, by the way ) that only the first one will show signs of decline when we can already see that Djokovic will have more bad days than what has been shown so far and that with only his mental strength will not be enough to keep winning even matches.

That he has won the last two GS finals to 5 sets to rivals who were very tired does not anticipate a promising future when the situation is contrary to his interests.
He is the third favorite to win RG but not beyond that as many would like it to be.
Excellent comment. I agree with everything you salid with one minor exception, the part where you said Djokovic defeated Federer at WB or Thiem at the AO because they were tired. I think Djokovic won fair and square those matches. Federer gave no signs of fatigue in the WB 2019 final, in fact Djokovic looked even less fresh than Federer, and Thiem (despite having played more before the final) also gave no signs of fatigue in the AO 2020 final. None of them looked tired to me, Djokovic won because he was more clutch in the crucial moments. Credit where credit is due.
 
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