Can Federer (1156) catch Connors (1256)?

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
(No, I am not talking about all tournament wins. But there again Fed seems to be chasing Connors. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Era_tennis_records_–_men's_singles)

I noticed in reading the ATP article about Djokovic reaching 800 match wins, that on the Open Era list Fed is right now (as of 23 June 2018) exactly 100 wins behind Jimmy Connors.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/djokovic-800-match-wins-tribute

Fed has 1156 match wins, and Connors has 1256.

How long should it take for Fed to get 100 more wins? Taking a portion of the year off hurts his chances but helps his health.

Will he retire before that?

Is this a goal that Fed cares about? Does it motivate him?
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
Its a cool stat, I think if he is healthy he would make a push. He is number 1 at 36 so it shouldnt be a problem to reach that number in 2020 or 2021 even if he falls to be just a top 20 guy
 
"Can"?

Barring an absolute disaster (career-ending injury), he is certain to surpass it.

It is approximately 40 wins per year for the next two years.

I cannot imagine a scenario, where Federer continues to play with such a high L-W ratio.

:cool:
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
If he wants it badly enough, it's gonna be his. Otherwise it has to be a side effect of going for more Slams. I don't think Federer has much more time at Slam winning level.
 

Rundmck

New User
I made this thread yesterday, with a poll. However because I'm a new member and it was my first post, people just ended up discussing how I was probably a duplicate account of a banned member. This is a strange forum :/
 

Slightly D1

Professional
Its a cool stat, I think if he is healthy he would make a push. He is number 1 at 36 so it shouldnt be a problem to reach that number in 2020 or 2021 even if he falls to be just a top 20 guy
Unless Fed completely pulls out of a majority of tournaments and focuses strictly on trying to win majors in particular Wimbledon, I don’t think he’s going to keep playing if he falls down to the 20’s and isn’t winning.

He’s going to go out on top or go out trying to win majors but he’s absolutely not going to play completely washed up tennis in his final year or two just to get a few extra wins.
 
I made this thread yesterday, with a poll. However because I'm a new member and it was my first post, people just ended up discussing how I was probably a duplicate account of a banned member. This is a strange forum :/
IMO, new members should have limited rights that stop them from posting new threads.

:cool:
 

Rundmck

New User
IMO, new members should have limited rights that stop them from posting new threads.

:cool:
Yes I guess it doesn't make sense me posting a thread about a genuinely interesting tennis statistic, when it clogs up the forum for experienced members to continue with their infighting, weird pet names for players, and hypercritical analysis of all time greats.

In response to this OP. I think if Federer keeps injury at bay, he will continue playing for 2 years, and hopefully beat the win record. I feel the tournament record is out of reach though.
 
Yes I guess it doesn't make sense me posting a thread about a genuinely interesting tennis statistic, when it clogs up the forum for experienced members to continue with their infighting, weird pet names for players, and hypercritical analysis of all time greats.

In response to this OP. I think if Federer keeps injury at bay, he will continue playing for 2 years, and hopefully beat the win record. I feel the tournament record is out of reach though.
You don't see the bigger picture.

For your one thread that might be interesting, there are a hundred threads made by duplicate accounts made solely for the purposes of clogging further the forum with such "new" topics.

:cool:
 

AiRFederer

Hall of Fame
The ATP omits so many of the events Connor's played it's basically meaningless if Federer catches this mark - same goes for all the top guys of that era like McEnroe and Lendl.
You mean omits the mugs he played to get to his title record?
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Yes I guess it doesn't make sense me posting a thread about a genuinely interesting tennis statistic, when it clogs up the forum for experienced members to continue with their infighting, weird pet names for players, and hypercritical analysis of all time greats.
If you don't like this Forum, go elsewhere where there's no infighting, no pet names and no hypercritical analysis. Problem solved!
 

Tommy Haas

Hall of Fame
If Federer wants to play into his 40s like Connors then he can shatter the record, but I don't see him playing for that long. Plus he plays sparingly to save himself for the majors save Roland Garros.
 

timnz

Legend
No because he's not playing twenty 250 tournaments every year like Connors did.
Is that actually true? I know people say that but has the data on that being established? Wikipedia isn’t necessarily reliable - but of Connors 109 titles, they say that 77 of his titles were at 500 equivalent level or higher.
 
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Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
(No, I am not talking about all tournament wins. But there again Fed seems to be chasing Connors. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Era_tennis_records_–_men's_singles)

I noticed in reading the ATP article about Djokovic reaching 800 match wins, that on the Open Era list Fed is right now (as of 23 June 2018) exactly 100 wins behind Jimmy Connors.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/djokovic-800-match-wins-tribute

Fed has 1156 match wins, and Connors has 1256.

How long should it take for Fed to get 100 more wins? Taking a portion of the year off hurts his chances but helps his health.

Will he retire before that?

Is this a goal that Fed cares about? Does it motivate him?
Considering current Federer playing schedules, it would take longer than someone who plays the full tournament calendar to win 100+ matches. You should project, if and when Federer repeats the extraordinary performance, a 2017 type of season in which he won approximately 50 matches. This would take at least 2 years of him continuing to play like that.
However not totally out of reach, it does not seem probable.
 

Tennisgods

Hall of Fame
If he wants it badly enough, it's gonna be his. Otherwise it has to be a side effect of going for more Slams. I don't think Federer has much more time at Slam winning level.
Yeah, but once he realises he won’t get near another slam, I don’t think he’ll play on. I really don’t think this particular record matters enough to him to schlepp with the also rans when he knows he hasn’t got a chance to win slams.
 

KG1965

Legend
Is that actually true? I know people say that but has the data on that being established? Wikipedia isn’t necessarily reliable - but of Connors 109 titles, they say that 77 of his titles were at 500 equivalent level or higher.
Considering correctly the titles of Connors (and McEnroe, Borg and Lendl) is not difficult.
But it seems to me that in this forum does not interest.
 

Xavier G

Hall of Fame
Roger will keep to his current smart scheduling which gives him the best chance in his mind of winning the Slams he's targeting.
I think Fed's looking to stick around til the 2020 Olympics at least so I suppose if he's still 100% physically well in the meantime and in good form, he's got a shot at catching Jimmy both in official match wins and tour titles.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Is that actually true? I know people say that but has the data on that being established? Wikipedia isn’t necessarily reliable - but of Connors 109 titles, they say that 77 of his titles were at 500 equivalent level or higher.
They have to be.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Yeah, but once he realises he won’t get near another slam, I don’t think he’ll play on. I really don’t think this particular record matters enough to him to schlepp with the also rans when he knows he hasn’t got a chance to win slams.
It also depends on when Federer makes the decision to retire, and where/when he actually retires. Also, I don't know how desperate Federer is to reach Tokyo 2020.

Say he does terrible at the USO/AO, and realises he might have one more shot at Wimbledon, then he'll probably retire in Basel or something. But to believe he can't win Slams anymore, it's gonna take a few failed attempts. Or a serious injury.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Another thing that needs to be mentioned is that while this may not be his goal, by the time that he is out of Slam contention this one will be a lot closer, same as the tournament wins record, although that one is probably a bit further away. So if he's on his farewell Tour and only like 10 matches away, he might add the extra 250 to try and get there or something like that.

And even though most people realise that Connors did truckloads of vulturing towards these records, it would still be a pretty big thing for Fed. Especially the tournament record, I think the match record is a little more obscure.
 

timnz

Legend
Considering correctly the titles of Connors (and McEnroe, Borg and Lendl) is not difficult.
But it seems to me that in this forum does not interest.
You have done great work. And though you wouldn’t agree with Wikipedia - I think you would say that the majority of Connors titles were at least 500 equivalent level or above, yes?
 

KG1965

Legend
You have done great work. And though you wouldn’t agree with Wikipedia - I think you would say that the majority of Connors titles were at least 500 equivalent level or above, yes?
It's a long story ....

Here nobody cares .. except you.
If you want one day I'll tell you.
But you already know .....;)
 

hoodjem

G.O.A.T.
"Can"?

Barring an absolute disaster (career-ending injury), he is certain to surpass it.
It is approximately 40 wins per year for the next two years.
I cannot imagine a scenario, where Federer continues to play with such a high L-W ratio.
Considering current Federer playing schedules, it would take longer than someone who plays the full tournament calendar to win 100+ matches. You should project, if and when Federer repeats the extraordinary performance, a 2017 type of season in which he won approximately 50 matches. This would take at least 2 years of him continuing to play like that.
However not totally out of reach, it does not seem probable.
Yes. I agree: not difficult for Fed—if he stays healthy and if he keeps playing.

Not necessarily big ifs, just unkowable ifs.
 
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