Can Nadal win Wimbledon one more time?

I don't think so. If he does, it will surely be after surviving some very tough matches on his way there. You could see the disappointment in his face after Müller took him out last year, I think he was feeling great and maybe thought he'd have a chance at the title if he survived a couple of tough matches like that one.
 
He has an actual chance
Djokovic and Murray are far from their best.
Federer could be met only in the F and if he reaches Sunday it usually means that he is in great shape
Cilic, Del Po, Raonic and Dimitrov have mental problems vs Rafa
The "new" guys - Kyrgios, Zverev, Gofffin and Thiem lack Grand Slam success and most notably lack Wimbledon experience.

Nadal needs to overcome the collective ego that he is "vulnerable" in the first week - by believing it, people give their best against him while at RG you see the opposite effect, people dont believe that they have a chance. If Nadal reaches QF and sees some familiar face to boost his confidence with a big win, its his tournament to be lost. Somehow I dont feel the vibe about Federer this year
 
I think he can if he survives the first week as the grass may not be as slick the second week.

Nobody in the nex gen has broken through to win a slam yet.
 
Sure as hell he can. Last year he played quite well, but he's not the same young running beast as before. So I'm guessing he'll need a bit of luck and, once he reaches the final rounds, then he's going to become dangerous.

Hope he can do it :)
 
His court position on return of serve will be key. I remember v Muller last year he just kept getting deeper as the match wore on to return Muller’s serve and gave Muller the initiative. He can’t play his clay game anymore where he sits too deep on ROS. Not sure if he can go back to his 2008 and 2010 tactic where he moved up much closer to the baseline to return serve. If so, then yes he could.
 
Odds are? No. But only two things can stop him: some rando red lining with a big serve, or Fed.

In other words, it is Nadal's track record at the event that works against him, not anything having to do with the current field of players.
 
Honestly, I would be astonished to see it happen.

Nadal is the type of player that needs to win a few matches before he's able to bring out his best level.

Grass is also a notoriously hard surface to adapt to and when you take into consideration that he's not playing a grass court event leading-in, it's beyond unlikely that we'll see him in another Wimbledon final.

The last time he was there was in 2011.

Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the quarters but he may also go out early this year.
 
If he can get past the first week and make the final with centre court looking like a dust bowl, anything is possible.
 
Bukmeikara said:
He has an actual chance
Djokovic and Murray are far from their best.
Federer could be met only in the F and if he reaches Sunday it usually means that he is in great shape
Cilic, Del Po, Raonic and Dimitrov have mental problems vs Rafa
The "new" guys - Kyrgios, Zverev, Gofffin and Thiem lack Grand Slam success and most notably lack Wimbledon experience.

Nadal needs to overcome the collective ego that he is "vulnerable" in the first week - by believing it, people give their best against him while at RG you see the opposite effect, people dont believe that they have a chance. If Nadal reaches QF and sees some familiar face to boost his confidence with a big win, its his tournament to be lost. Somehow I dont feel the vibe about Federer this year
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Let's not go overboard now. If Federer is into the final, it means he is also playing well and there is no mental block against Nadal this time.
 
mike danny said:
Let's not go overboard now. If Federer is into the final, it means he is also playing well and there is no mental block against Nadal this time.
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I think that's going overboard to say that his past mental block vs Nadal has been entirely erased. I don't believe that. It's slightly in Federer's favor these days off clay but remember the AO 2017 final was close and Nadal was a break up in the fifth. I think if Nadal and Federer are both in good enough form to make the final, it will likely be a battle which can go either way. But Nadal has to get there first and that's been a big challenge for him the past six years.
 
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He needs to really improve his ROS while he's practising in Mallorca. Tries to put too much action on the return when a redirect should be enough.

He also needs to go for more on his serves. Rolling them in isn't going to work unless he rolls a skidding slice serve.
 
cc0509 said:
I think that's going overboard to say that his past mental block vs Nadal has been entirely erased. I don't believe that. It's slightly in Federer's favor these days off clay but remember the AO 2017 final was close and Nadal was a break up in the fifth. I think if Nadal and Federer are both in good enough form to make the final, it will likely be a battle which can go either way. But Nadal has to get there first and that's been a big challenge for him the past six years.
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AO 2017 was still before Fed had even vanquished the mental block. We're talking post AO 2017 here. Not saying Fed is the absolute favorite, but things are looking much better now than before 2017.

What's going overboard is saying Wimb is Nadal's title to lose if he gets past the QF.
 
cc0509 said:
I think that's going overboard to say that his past mental block vs Nadal has been entirely erased. I don't believe that. It's slightly in Federer's favor these days off clay but remember the AO 2017 final was close and Nadal was a break up in the fifth. I think if Nadal and Federer are both in good enough form to make the final, it will likely be a battle which can go either way. But Nadal has to get there first and that's been a big challenge for him the past six years.
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Mental block seems overstated.
 
King No1e said:
Honestly he is one of the favorites. Along with Fed, Cilic, Dimi, and Raonic.
What a field LOL
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I would add kyrgios to your list, he certainly has the ability to win. It's just difficult to see him winning seven in a row without fighting the urge of pickup basketball.

That's the thing. After Federer you can't find one player and say you'd be surprised if they missed the semifinal. On that basis a player like Nadal has some chance even though I'm not expecting much.
 
Nadal will need the draw of the century, along with some massive upsets and choke jobs to pull this off.

I saw some stats today that shocked me. From 2012-2017, Nadal has only 1 win against the top 20 on grass. That was in 2015 when he beat #16 Monfils in Stuttgart. But that wasn’t the most shocking thing. During that same time frame, Nadal is only 7-6 against players ranked outside the top 50. This is absolutely terrible. Nadal will need to run against grinders that don’t serve well in the early rounds in order to get to the quarters for the first time in 7 years. Nadal is quite vulnerable against big servers on this surface.

On the flip side, Nadal could take out guys like Zverev, Thiem, Goffin, and Dimitrov if he faces them in the later rounds. But those guys likely won’t get there.

I would not consider Nadal a favorite against Federer on grass, should he get there. Federer as dominated Nadal on fast hard courts lately. A confident Fed would take out Nadal in Wimbledon. But I don’t think they will meet there. I have a strong feeling that they will never play each other on grass again.

With all of that being said, I give Nadal a very slim chance of winning Wimbledon again. It is certainly possible and I will never rule out a legend like a Nadal.
 
Nadal has a chance, yes. But he needs a lot of help from the draw. Nadal needs to avoids big hitters, and players that can get hot. He also needs Federer out of the tournament, he cannot play Federer in the final at this stage in their careers.
 
mike danny said:
AO 2017 was still before Fed had even vanquished the mental block. We're talking post AO 2017 here. Not saying Fed is the absolute favorite, but things are looking much better now than before 2017.

What's going overboard is saying Wimb is Nadal's title to lose if he gets past the QF.
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I agree that things are looking much better in that rivalry these days but to say he's vanquished the mental block off clay for good vs Nadal when they've only played one slam match in the last five(slam matches are much different than best of three as you well know) at the AO 2017 and that went to five sets where Nadal was up a break in the fifth is overkill IMO. I just think if both get to each other in a slam, it will be a battle which can go either way. I would give Federer the slight edge, nothing more.

The huge battle for Nadal, however, is getting past the QFs which he hasn't been able to do in a long time.


Im(moral) Winner said:
Mental block seems overstated.
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A mental block which lasted over a decade is overstated?
 
mike danny said:
AO 2017 was still before Fed had even vanquished the mental block. We're talking post AO 2017 here. Not saying Fed is the absolute favorite, but things are looking much better now than before 2017.

What's going overboard is saying Wimb is Nadal's title to lose if he gets past the QF.
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Well said. If Federer plays Nadal on grass at this stage in their careers, Federer will be the one more likely to win.

People need to understand that Federer has solved Nadal's game out, it being a slam doesn't change that. The difference about playing on a clay court is that Nadal would be able to tire Federer out, that cannot happen on a surface that rewards shot making. And, I have still to see how Nadal is going to solve this new Federer, because hitting to his backhand is not going to cut it, and with Federer looking sharp on serve, pressure would be huge on each Nadal service game.
 
cc0509 said:
I agree that things are looking much better in that rivalry these days but to say he's vanquished the mental block off clay for good vs Nadal when they've only played one slam match in the last five(slam matches are much different than best of three as you well know) at the AO 2017 and that went to five sets where Nadal was up a break in the fifth is overkill IMO. I just think if both get to each other in a slam, it will be a battle which can go either way. I would give Federer the slight edge, nothing more.

The huge battle for Nadal, however, is getting past the QFs which he hasn't been able to do in a long time.

A mental block which lasted over a decade is overstated?
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AO 2017 was still during his mental block phase. That's how Nadal was even up a break in the the 5th set in the first place. They haven't played any other slam match ever since for your point to have validity.

Also, regarding the mental block being overstated, it's true to an extent. Fed wouldn't have beaten Nadal at FO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014 anyway even with no mental block due to different circumstances at that time. At 2012 AO, Fed was 30+ against peak Nadal on the slowest ever AO court. No amount of mental toughness can bridge that significant age gap in conditions favoring Nadal. As for 2014 AO, Fed wasn't confident enough in general, full stop. It wasn't entirely related to Nadal. FO 2011 was Nadal at RG. Nothing more needs to be said here.
 
mike danny said:
AO 2017 was still during his mental block. They haven't played any other slam match ever since for your point to have validity.

Also, regarding the mental block being overstated, it's true to an extent. Fed wouldn't have beaten Nadal at AO 2012 and 2014 anyway even with no mental block due to different circumstances at that time. At 2012 AO, Fed was 30+ against peak Nadal on the slowest ever AO court. No amount of mental toughness can bridge that significant age gap in conditions favoring Nadal. As for 2014 AO, Fed wasn't confident enough in general, full stop. It wasn't entirely related to Nadal.
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It is not just that, the match up played into Nadal's hands. The match up is NOT playing into Nadal's hands anymore. Federer is vaporizing backhands off of that side against Nadal, no slice being used. Take away Nadal's primary game plan against you on a shot making court, and he is in serious trouble. Federer also uses some of tactics that Djokovic uses. Nadal was so baffled by Federer's backhand assault that for the first time in Miami 2017, he actually targeted Federer's forehand. The ball will still bounce lower than on other courts, even in the second week....
 
mike danny, post: 12391198, member: 427497"]AO 2017 was still during his mental block. They haven't played any other slam match ever since for your point to have validity.
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But that's what I'm saying. One slam match is not conclusive evidence of anything either way. I just think if Nadal by some miracle after six years of bombing out of Wimbledon can make it to a W final and to Federer, Federer would have the edge but it would likely be a tussle.


Also, regarding the mental block being overstated, it's true to an extent. Fed wouldn't have beaten Nadal at AO 2012 and 2014 anyway even with no mental block due to different circumstances at that time. At 2012 AO, Fed was 30+ against peak Nadal on the slowest ever AO court. No amount of mental toughness can bridge that significant age gap in conditions favoring Nadal. As for 2014 AO, Fed wasn't confident enough in general, full stop. It wasn't entirely related to Nadal.
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Yeah, I"m not sure I agree with all that. I think the mental block was paramount back then.
 
I think he has a chance for sure, but it really depends on the draw and his mental state. At Roland Garros, it doesn't matter how much respect he gives to lower-ranked opponents in early rounds, they have very little chance against him. At Wimbledon, however, a guy who serves reasonably well and has powerful groundstrokes can pose a lot of problems, especially if he's passive. When he overthinks the issue and gives too much respect to the opponent he becomes more passive and the opponent becomes more confident. But with the right draw and a willingness to take the initiative (like he's done at the US Open before) he could make it to week 2. And if he can somehow slip into the QFs then things could look much more promising. I'd only favour 1 player over him in a Final or a Semi-Final.
 
mike danny said:
AO 2017 was still during his mental block phase. That's how Nadal was even up a break in the the 5th set in the first place. They haven't played any other slam match ever since for your point to have validity.

Also, regarding the mental block being overstated, it's true to an extent. Fed wouldn't have beaten Nadal at FO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014 anyway even with no mental block due to different circumstances at that time. At 2012 AO, Fed was 30+ against peak Nadal on the slowest ever AO court. No amount of mental toughness can bridge that significant age gap in conditions favoring Nadal. As for 2014 AO, Fed wasn't confident enough in general, full stop. It wasn't entirely related to Nadal. FO 2011 was Nadal at RG. Nothing more needs to be said here.
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Don't know about this one. Fred defo had his chances there, he was in great form that tournament. The slower courts didn't exactly work against him and he was in fact leading by a break in each of the first 3 sets (up a set and a break at one point). That had the potential to go 5 sets and I was surprised when it didn't.
 
mike danny said:
AO 2017 was still during his mental block phase. That's how Nadal was even up a break in the the 5th set in the first place. They haven't played any other slam match ever since for your point to have validity.

Also, regarding the mental block being overstated, it's true to an extent. Fed wouldn't have beaten Nadal at FO 2011, AO 2012 and AO 2014 anyway even with no mental block due to different circumstances at that time. At 2012 AO, Fed was 30+ against peak Nadal on the slowest ever AO court. No amount of mental toughness can bridge that significant age gap in conditions favoring Nadal. As for 2014 AO, Fed wasn't confident enough in general, full stop. It wasn't entirely related to Nadal. FO 2011 was Nadal at RG. Nothing more needs to be said here.
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RG 2011 and AO 2012 matches, Federer had more than a decent shot (AO 12 even more so)
RG 11, should've taken the first set, but crumbled.

Nadal was still favored in both , but mental part did play a role in both.

AO 14 - Federer was just plain sucky that day. not much to do with the mental block, if you ask me.
 
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