Can Nadal win Wimbledon one more time?

He is too vulnerable to a lot of players on grass. His last 6 years were 2R, 1R, 4R, 2R, A, 4R. This is not the sign of someone who plays well on grass at the moment. If he makes it to the final and it was against fed, he would be a massive underdog, probably odds to lose in 3.
 
Yep, it's like people don't know what they're watching. It's perplexing to me when I'm still mainly hearing about his speed and stamina when Nadal is so aggressive these days even off the BH wing, Heck this FO he hit more DTL BHs than I've ever seen him do.

I agree, Nadal's new aggressive style of play under Murray suits Fed far more because well, that's his bread and butter, a fast pace match suits him far more.
That is true. But let's be realistic. The current post prime Nadal is just NOT good enough. The fact that he won UsOpen last year had more to do with the lack of strength in the field than about Nadal's game. Imagine if Djokovic had not declined, Nadal might not even have won RG, forget about the UsOpen

What does Nadal do better than before? Maybe he is slightly more aggressive on his backhand (which is debatable IMO). But even that is neutralized by the lack of speed when he is pushed wide to the backhand ( something that Fed has exploited just as Djokovic used to earlier - by hitting their fh cc wide to Nadal's bh).

Other than the backhand, everything else is significantly worse. His ROS, usually the weakest part of his game, is like garbage now - basically a joke outside clay. His serve is worse, nowhere close to 2010-2013 level. His forehand also isn't as offensive. His best shot - the inside out forehand, he doesn't hit as often. His cc forehand lands short more often that not. Let's see some tapes of Nadal from 2007-2013 to see what his forehand used to be. Then of course, his defense has declined. He is a step slower, and late on the passing shots. His fitness is also suspect. That is why in most matches, he loses a large % of 10+ shot rallies, where as that stat used to be reverse earlier.

So yeah, Federer improved his game to beat Nadal. But again it's not peak Fed, we're talking about. I mean the 2004-2009 Fed, would likely demolish the current one. He doesn't have to be that good to beat Nadal anymore. People talk as if Federer is playing the best tennis of his life. That isn't true at all. Truth is both of them are old, and while one would expect the younger Nadal to have an advantage, that's not the case. Simply because Nadal is older in tennis years because of his physical style and constant injuries.
 
Well, Nadal's current forehand is still awesome and if Federer is "off" and doesn't stick with that aggressive backhand throughout a match vs Nadal, Federer will lose IMO.

In any case, Nadal is the one who will likely have to get to Federer at Wimbledon and he hasn't been too successful reaching the second week in the past six years. Let's see the draw. Nadal may get a joke draw. :eek:
In fact Federer's backhand wasn't that great at Miami last year and he still won. So it does have a lot to do with Nadal's new game plan playing right into Fed's hands.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
I think that has been general opinion among ATP coaching community.
Whole community knew problem was Federers conservative strategy in tight situations like deciding sets such as 5th set.
Exposed by guys like Nadal, Djokovic and Del Porto.
He was one stubborn guy and kept using essentially same war strategy.
Yeah, Delpo really exposed him with a 7-18 H2H, right. Beating an ATG in one big match doesn't mean you're exposing him, it just means you were better on the occasion.

Fed's H2H with Novak is also fine considering the 5 year age gap, hardly a black mark the TTWers are making it out to be.

Many people believe Federer finally addressed it from 2017 improving his record in deciding sets but I'm not exactly sure he really has changed.
Yes, many. Including you Ultradr/Fastdunn before you backtracked on it because well you're far too fanatical and butthurt to give any credit to one of the best player in the history of the sport.

Federer has not played many matches with guys like Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro, Wawrinka in top form.
Well that's because everytime he beats any of those players, they're not in top form according to you so the old man can't win really. Heck, he beat Nadal 4 times last year in a season in which the latter reached multipl slam finals and finished as #1.

Also Wawrinka?!? Seriously, you couldn't find a different example to a guy who's never beaten Fed off clay in 15+ meetings?

Have to ask, what happened to Cilic? You used to praise that guy a lot after he beat Fed in 2014 USO before you've suddenly stopped, what changed?
 
That is true. But let's be realistic. The current post prime Nadal is just NOT good enough. The fact that he won UsOpen last year had more to do with the lack of strength in the field than about Nadal's game. Imagine if Djokovic had not declined, Nadal might not even have won RG, forget about the UsOpen

What does Nadal do better than before? Maybe he is slightly more aggressive on his backhand (which is debatable IMO). But even that is neutralized by the lack of speed when he is pushed wide to the backhand ( something that Fed has exploited just as Djokovic used to earlier - by hitting their fh cc wide to Nadal's bh).

Other than the backhand, everything else is significantly worse. His ROS, usually the weakest part of his game, is like garbage now - basically a joke outside clay. His serve is worse, nowhere close to 2010-2013 level. His forehand also isn't as offensive. His best shot - the inside out forehand, he doesn't hit as often. His cc forehand lands short more often that not. Let's see some tapes of Nadal from 2007-2013 to see what his forehand used to be. Then of course, his defense has declined. He is a step slower, and late on the passing shots. His fitness is also suspect. That is why in most matches, he loses a large % of 10+ shot rallies, where as that stat used to be reverse earlier.

So yeah, Federer improved his game to beat Nadal. But again it's not peak Fed, we're talking about. I mean the 2004-2009 Fed, would likely demolish the current one. He doesn't have to be that good to beat Nadal anymore. People talk as if Federer is playing the best tennis of his life. That isn't true at all. Truth is both of them are old, and while one would expect the younger Nadal to have an advantage, that's not the case. Simply because Nadal is older in tennis years because of his physical style and constant injuries.
His backhand has been weak while he was fiercely competing with Djokovic.
Somehow Djokovic broke it.
Before that, Nadal always had strong/aggressive backhand. He is righty after all.
McEnroe said Rafas backhand strongest two hander hes ever seen.
It's just his backhand got broken when Djokvic was stronng basically.

And his serve since 2014 has been on/off. Sometimes glimpse of his top form and next tournament not so good.
I agree he is probably past his prime.

But I think one thing about 2018 clay season, his forehand seems to be pretty close to his prime form.
I think that's why some people in tennis community expect he will do better this time.....
 
He would take out his anger of the last 6 years on the ball.


Boy I wanna see this Rafa one more time.
He played very well in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2017. In 2014 and 2017 he easily could have made semis.

Nadal is not bad on grass as his record in last 6 years suggest. While I believe he was not that good on grass during 2006-11 period. Had close matches in early rounds. Few points here and there, Rosolisation would have occurred much earlier.
 
He played very well in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2017. In 2014 and 2017 he easily could have made semis.

Nadal is not bad on grass as his record in last 6 years suggest. While I believe he was not that good on grass during 2006-11 period. Had close matches in early rounds. Few points here and there, Rosolisation would have occurred much earlier.
2014 and 2017 still annoy me.
 
But bottom line is his knee conditions.
It got worse over the years and he can't play on grass pain free.
Despite that, I think he might do better this year since his forehand is arguably in best form since 2013, IMHO.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
But bottom line is his knee conditions.
It got worse over the years and he can't play on grass pain free.
Despite that, I think he might do better this year since his forehand is arguably in best form since 2013, IMHO.
He was playing really well last year. If he can replicate that form and gets a bit lucky with the draw it's possible. But the problem is he's not playing and serving as well as he did last year.
 
But bottom line is his knee conditions.
It got worse over the years and he can't play on grass pain free.
Despite that, I think he might do better this year since his forehand is arguably in best form since 2013, IMHO.
What is this new urban legend about Nadal not being able to play on grass pain free due to his knees ? Where did he say that ?

Also how come the incessant grinding in the long clay season doesn't cause any pain in the knees anymore ?
 
What is this new urban legend about Nadal not being able to play on grass pain free due to his knees ? Where did he say that ?

Also how come the incessant grinding in the long clay season doesn't cause any pain in the knees anymore ?
Where have you been last 14 years?
That's big part of why hes strong on clay and not so much on others.

It's an issue of bending deep and footing on the surface, due to extended tissue under his knee born.
It's like old people loving clay courts. :D

The worsening part is from Tony's words like a few weeks ago, explaining why he has not done well at Wimbledon last a few years.
 
He was playing really well last year. If he can replicate that form and gets a bit lucky with the draw it's possible. But the problem is he's not playing and serving as well as he did last year.
I agree with the serving part.
But I think there was also ups and downs in serving last year. It's just he happened to be serving great at RG.
He just has more ups and downs in serving since 2014 lower back injuries.

But forehand part, he was still having issue in all 2017.

General consensus was he won't fully recover prime form in his forehand and serving.
I think the lower back injuries was significant blow.

But somehow, his forehand in 2018 has been really good.
Saved him many troubles.
 
No, he can't. This was his year with Roger and Marin Cilic out on the opposite side of the draw, and a Nole who was totally unsure of himself and ready to go down had Rafa taken those set points or break points in the fifth. Rafa knew this was his huge chance to finally win a third Wimbledon title and the pressure was to much causing him to tighten up and choke big time. I mean he had a dead tired Kevin Anderson waiting in the final! Nope, that was it for winning another Wimbledon trophy. He does the same thing in Australia anytime he gets a chance to finally win a 2nd title there. Either nerves become such that he gets injured because he's so tight, or he has a huge chance and misses easy shots to allow guys to come back and beat him. It's Roland Garros from here on out for Rafa. The question will be how much longer can he hold down the fort there?
 
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