Can Rafa win any more non clay majors ?

#1
After winning USO 17 he has only completed 3 full HC tournaments in 1.5 years from that time.

DC: withdrew
Basel: w/d
Paris: w/o
London: w/o
Brisbane: w/d
AO: retired
Acapulco: w/d
IW: w/d
Miami: w/d
Toronto: Champion
Cincy: w/d
US Open: retired
Beijing: w/d
Shanghai: w/d
Paris: w/d
London: w/d
Brisbane: w/d
AO: Finalist
Acapulco: R2

IW: w/o

What are the chances he wins a major outside clay ?
 
#5
After winning USO 17 he has only completed 3 full HC tournaments in 1.5 years from that time.

DC: withdrew
Basel: w/d
Paris: w/o
London: w/o
Brisbane: w/d
AO: retired
Acapulco: w/d
IW: w/d
Miami: w/d
Toronto: Champion
Cincy: w/d
US Open: retired
Beijing: w/d
Shanghai: w/d
Paris: w/d
London: w/d
Brisbane: w/d
AO: Finalist
Acapulco: R2

IW: w/o

What are the chances he wins a major outside clay ?
If fit always favourite at Us Open and 2nd favourite behind Djokovic at AO so yes absolutely. I think he will get one more AO and one more USO. And 2 more FOs although thiem if he wins today will be ultra dangerous on clay
 
#6
On topic I think he might get one at most. I don't really see him winning more, largely because of his injury struggles and Novak being in form. It's difficult to say though. Guven what he's achieved in his career, I would never count him out
At the moment Nadal and Djokovic are utterly dominant on hard courts. Nobody is close to either really bar a fit Delpo
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
#7
He made the final in Australia without too many problems.

The knee has been bothering him on and off for over a decade. It's other injuries I'd worry about more.
 
#15
This same question was asked before AO 17(could've won if not for Federer) and USO 17(one of the all-time easiest draws ever + Federer injured and out early + no Djoko).

There's the answer.
 
#19
He made the final in Australia without too many problems.

The knee has been bothering him on and off for over a decade. It's other injuries I'd worry about more.
You are absolutely right, but the right knee problem seems to be more frequent since 2017. Before 2017, I only remember Ralph skipping one Major because of the right knee (Wimbledon 2009).
 
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#21
Despite Nada's troubles on grass in recent years, I say he has a chance at Wimby if he avoids big hitters. He can still snatch a UO or AO if he coasts to the finals again and faces someone other than Djokovic. All scenarios imo would have to happen between now and the end of 2020.
 
#22
As his last 3 majors on Hard Courts suggest: it depends a lot on the draw. I never count champions out, no matter liking or disliking them.

Give humbralito some Kevin Anderson in a major final and the title is there.
 

Wander

Professional
#23
I think the writing is on the wall for Nadal on hard courts, the injuries will prevent him from winning any more Majors not named Roland Garros.
 
#32
Seems unlikely, but could still happen. He just needs to keep making it far and hope for a lucky break. This includes:
-not getting injured
-not meeting Nole
-avoiding big hitters on grass
-avoiding long, exhausting matches on hard

Last years Wimbledon was a fluke in my opinion. He is still most vulnerable there and could lose to almost anyone. It really depends on the draw plus I can’t see him winning there against one or two serve bots + Roger/Nole or even both of them. A tough ask at this stage.

I’d say the Australian open is his 2nd least likely hunting ground since something always seems to happen - Roger’s 2017 miracle win, Cilic not giving up in 2018, Nole completely pounding the stuffing out of Rafa this year. It’s simply not working for him plus everybody is usually fresh/uninjured for that Slam.

The US Open seems most likely but Nole always makes the final there. And the slower the courts, the more Rafa has to grind, which will work against him now. Still looks the most likely out of all 3, and I wouldn’t bet against him. But I do feel he needs quite a lot of help to do it and that’s never a good sign.
 
#34
Ok so TS decides that reaching a QF and SF and retiring mid-match doesn't count as playing in the event :-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D.

Can we not count the clay events that Federer hasn't played in the past few years then? :unsure:
 
#36
Clearly, yes. He would have been a big favorite vs. anyone other than Djokovic in Australia, he could, have won Wimbledon last year, etc.

He’s only been broken 5 times this season by players other than Djokovic and has the highest hold% to start a. season ever.

He turns 33 soon, and it will get more and more difficult, but I think very definitely he can win another slam off of clay.
 
#37
If fit always favourite at Us Open and 2nd favourite behind Djokovic at AO so yes absolutely. I think he will get one more AO and one more USO. And 2 more FOs although thiem if he wins today will be ultra dangerous on clay
He's not always favourite at the USO, he's won 3 titles in the last 9 years and made a total of 4 finals. Djokovic is pretty much always favourite to reach the final, Nadal having a 2-1 H2H over him there is not enough to make him favourite when he's reached the final half the amount of times as Djokovic

Thiem is not beating Nadal at RG unless Nadal is in bad form
 
#38
He needs a good run where he's fit, playing well, has a decent draw and perhaps Djkokoic is not in form or in his way, but yeah he can. Wimbledon may be his best chance again as if he can get through the first week again there's not as many threats on grass
 
#39
Well, who has been more consistent outwith Djokovic in HC tournaments ? For a guy with messed up knees on the surface, hes doing well.
He's hardly played any to completion that's the point though. He's skipped a lot and most of the ones he has played at he's retired in. Even withought that it's a bit much to say its domination, even if you are the second best player on a surface. Back in 2006-2008 I wouldn't have said both Nadal and Fed dominated clay, Nadal was the only one dominating.

I mean in the last year Nadal has a HC master and a slam final, which so did Delpo (up til this IW final) Federer may win a masters later on. He's not reached a HC slam final since Jan 2018 but overall he's had better results on HC because he's actually played more events and in the last couple of years he's been more consitant on HC
 
#41
At the moment Nadal and Djokovic are utterly dominant on hard courts. Nobody is close to either really bar a fit Delpo
Obviously Djokovic having won the first slam of the year is in the lead, but Nadal has hardly completed any HC events the past couple of years, hardly won any. Delpo is out injured and won his first and last master a year ago. Federer has already won Dubai and might add IW today. Don' see how Nadal is co "dominating" any more than Fed was co dominating clay in 2006-2008

In the short term Nadal hasn't won any hc events and in the last few years he's also not won that many. You have to go back to 2013 to find him winning more than 1 in a year
 
#43
Obviously Djokovic having won the first slam of the year is in the lead, but Nadal has hardly completed any HC events the past couple of years, hardly won any. Delpo is out injured and won his first and last master a year ago. Federer has already won Dubai and might add IW today. Don' see how Nadal is co "dominating" any more than Fed was co dominating clay in 2006-2008

In the short term Nadal hasn't won any hc events and in the last few years he's also not won that many. You have to go back to 2013 to find him winning more than 1 in a year
Past two years Nadal has wom a Major or masters 1000 on hard and already this year been a runner up and SF. Clearly top 2 on hard court
 
#44
He's not always favourite at the USO, he's won 3 titles in the last 9 years and made a total of 4 finals. Djokovic is pretty much always favourite to reach the final, Nadal having a 2-1 H2H over him there is not enough to make him favourite when he's reached the final half the amount of times as Djokovic

Thiem is not beating Nadal at RG unless Nadal is in bad form
Nadal v djokovic at US Open is the dream final this year.
 
#47
No, unless he gets another cakewalk draw like USO 17.
Nadal has been the dominant player with Djokovic at US Open for past decade so nadal is guaranteed at least one more Us Open as he loves it there. Australia im less sure unless Djokovic has a bad day but Nadal clearly comfortably 2nd best in australia. Basically Nadal a certainty to break 20 majors over next 3 years.
 
#48
On topic I think he might get one at most. I don't really see him winning more, largely because of his injury struggles and Novak being in form. It's difficult to say though. Given what he's achieved in his career, I would never count him out
It's so hard to predict, but one more seems reasonable. On the one hand, Rafa has had so many retirements and withdrawals of late. As he says, he loves hard courts, but they don't love him.

On the other hand, his last five HC majors results have been: F, W, QF, SF, F - not bad. Even though he appears to be nearing the end, as someone who reveres The Big 3, I can't count him out, either.
 

weakera

Hall of Fame
#49
He definitely can, needs some good fortune in terms of health but with enough opportunities, not an unreasonable ask when you consider he has been right there for every major in the last couple of years.
 
#50
Past two years Nadal has wom a Major or masters 1000 on hard and already this year been a runner up and SF. Clearly top 2 on hard court
In the past 2 years, nadal won 1 major and 1 masters 1000 on hard courts. Federer in the same time won 2 majors and 3 masters 1000 and Djokovic won 2 majors and 2 masters 1000. Yeah Nadal top 2 my #%^
 
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