Can we have a sensible discussion about Nadal's Wim 17 chances? (poll)

How far do you think Nadal will go in Wim 17?

  • Total voters
    87
  • Poll closed .
falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
In 2012, aged 26, Nadal showed up to Wimbledon having won the French, having taken peak Djokovic to 7-5 in the fifth set at the AO final, having 3 other clay titles, having reached 5 consecutive major finals, and having reached the final of Wimbledon in 5 consecutive attempts. He lost in R2.

In 2013, aged 27, he showed up with a 43-2 record on the year, including 7 titles on hard and clay, including the French. Lost in straights in R1.

In 2017, he is again French champ and AO finalist. BUT:
  • He last played on grass in 2015
  • He last played vs. top 10 on grass in 2011.
  • He's 31
  • He's 10-7 on grass since 2012 (ave. opp. = 68, median = 63)
  • He's 5-4 at Wimbledon since 2012 (ave. opp. = 85, median = 80)
Full respect to Nadal for being a fighter and an all time great, and for having a great 2017. But he's the second favourite with the bookies. And his odds improved after he was drawn vs a murderer's row of big hitters Khachanov, Muller and Cilic.

Is he not being a bit overhyped here? Am I missing something? How far do you think he'll go?
 
If he plays at RG 2017 level, he has a good chance to reach the semi final. Unlike the last few years his serving better and backhand is better. Still, it's grass and he's been very average in last few years on the surface.
Maybe a quarter final.
 
Either he goes out early ....... or he goes till the end, there is no in between.

I don't think there would be any one stopping him after he gains momentum, plus he is more comfortable when the grass has worn out, means more grip for running. Lets hope for an awesome wimbledon
 
He has a great bracket in the draw-hard to see anybody in the first three rounds giving him any trouble, fourth round could be tricky because it is likely to be either Karlovic, Muller or his conqueror from some years back Rosol. Quarter would likely be Cilic or Kei, cannot see him beating either of those two. So fourth round or quarter.
 
Nadal's chances are relative. If Djokovic and Murray were in the forms they were in during the previous years, it'd be ridiculous for Nadal to be the second favorite given his recent history that you've just pointed out. That is not the case and Nadal, surprisingly, is looking like a safer bet at Wimbledon because he's been the best player of 2017 so far.
 
stringertom said:
Muller stops him in 4R...in the same time frame since Nadal's last run into the second week, Muller is 38-17 on grass and a perfect 6-0 vs fellow southpaws.
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Muller's serve is great, but I would favor Rafa in the tiebreaks, as Muller's groundstrokes are around the top 100 level. Other than serving, Rafa is considerably better than Muller at everything, so Rafa will hold most service games quite easily, and will pounce on any weak second serves. If Rafa makes it there, he should win it in 4 sets at a maximum.
 
4R or earlier. He hasn't reached the QF since 2011 and his clay court form has had no bearing on his Wimbledon result. Lol @ the people voting "champion" :rolleyes:
 
deBroglie said:
Muller's serve is great, but I would favor Rafa in the tiebreaks, as Muller's groundstrokes are around the top 100 level. Other than serving, Rafa is considerably better than Muller at everything, so Rafa will hold most service games quite easily, and will pounce on any weak second serves. If Rafa makes it there, he should win it in 4 sets at a maximum.
Click to expand...
In Muller's impressive run at Rosmalen and Queen's, his return game is much improved. His only match when winning by multiple TBs was the Rosmalen final vs Karlobot. Every other match, including his lone loss to Cilic, he had at least one break of serve. In four of the seven wins he had multiple breaks.
 
The fact that he's still able to play and win slams after all these injuries is amazing. There's been so many people whose career's have been ruined by injuries but Nadal just overcomes them. In saying that, on grass he hasn't been able to.
 
I saw the draw briefly. I wasn't surprised Joker got the best draw (he's the only one who gets better draws than RF), w/ all the clay courters in his quarter. I WAS surprised Federer was in his half. I was even more surprised that out of the top 4, Federer seems to have the most potential land mines. Hot Bro Zverev has a man-crush on RF, so that may neutralize him, but once they consummate, he's got the serve/volley game to make Roger go bye-bye. "Lil' Bro" Zverev will avenge him if Roger beats up his hot bro'. There's Knock-Knees Isner, Meatloaf Raonic, and Shaved Beaver Dimitrov as back-up. One of those guys will dispatch Roger. Maybe. WTFK with him?!

Anyone impressed with Joker's game this week in "EastBERN"...? Me neither. More push and retrieve. That's not gonna cut it. Murray's game is scat. Another push 'n' retriever.

Nadal's the favorite, imvho. But Karen K. scares me for him. This "W" is almost as open as the broad's. It'll be A LOT of fun! Can't wait. Love me some ESPN3...!! "Bein" can SOCK IT HARD!!!
 
Backspin1183 said:
If he plays at RG 2017 level, he has a good chance to reach the semi final. Unlike the last few years his serving better and backhand is better. Still, it's grass and he's been very average in last few years on the surface.
Maybe a quarter final.
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I would throw out 2014 and 2015 as bad years altogether for Nadal. Yes, he squeaked through another RG, but it was a weaker year on clay too. 2012 is a question mark, because we really don't know what happened, exactly when his knees went fully bad.

2013 is the only recent year I would highlight as a year he was playing well and got shocked at Wimbledon. Many people are expecting that to happen again this year. I think his more aggressive serving might prevent that.

Frankly, if either Nadal or Federer does not win this year, I think it will be an upset. I would never count Murray or Djokovic out, but they do not seem likely at this time, either of them. So if not Fedal, perhaps a dark horse this year...
 
OP, you sure seem obsessed with Nadal for somebody who says he has no chance to go far in the tournament. :confused:

I think he could make the final. Why? More aggressive play from him this year, a fairly weak batch of younger contenders many of whom are dealing with their own problems/injuries, Murray/Wawrinka in his half unlikely to beat him.
 
D.Nalby12 said:
I think Istomin will knock him out. If he somehow survived, then Cilic will take care of him.
Click to expand...

Players like Istomin have one big win per career .. so probably not. Cilic is a choker, If Nadal reach him - he would probably be confident enough to take him out. I think SF looks reasonable.
 
NEW_BORN said:
Well J.Millman is the 1st 100+ ranked player to face Grassdal, so naturally Johnny will expose Lafa false dawn.
Click to expand...

Whenever I see his name I think of the fat AWA job guy.
2016-10-20_225937.png
 
Nadal isn't someone I see going out in the middle of Wimbledon. He's not losing to a Tsonga or a Berdych (at Wimbledon). He might lose to a Rosol early or a Djokovic/Murray/Fed later on or he won't lose at all.
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Are you putting words in people's mouths again? He didn't say Nadal had no chance to go far in the tournament: Looks like you need to work on your comprehension.
Click to expand...

I'm not putting words in people's mouths at all. He has made several posts in different threads indicating his opinion that Nadal has no chance to go far at Wimbledon. Here is an example of one of his posts on the subject:

falstaff78 said:
Does anyone seriously think Nadal will challenge at Wimbledon?
  • It has been 6 years since he played a top 10 player on grass!
  • In last 5 seasons, he is 10-7 on grass
  • In those 17 matches, ave. opponent = 68, median = 63
Click to expand...

Does that sound to you like he believes in Nadal's chances?

So please don't cherry-pick part of his posts to try and further your agenda. Also, way to re-word your post after your original post was deleted by mods because you insulted me. :rolleyes:
 
hmm OP I understand what you're doing, trust me, but nahhh in fact people are under estimating him because of how he did in the last few years and I understand using that as a factor to predict how far he might go, but really he has been playing great tennis, you have to admit and is a lot more aggressive. had had more big hitters in his draw in the first few rounds, I might think other wise. but he has a rather soft draw so I can see him going far.
 
cc0509 said:
I'm not putting words in people's mouths at all. He has made several posts in different threads indicating his opinion that Nadal has no chance to go far at Wimbledon. Here is an example of one of his posts on the subject:
Click to expand...
Nowhere does he say that Nadal has no chance like you claimed he does. Thanks for proving my point. Can you show me a post from him where he said that Nadal has no chance of making it deep at Wimbledon? Because that's what you claimed.

Does that sound to you like he believes in Nadal's chances?
Click to expand...
He doesn't have to believe in Nadal's chances. What's relevant is that he does not think Nadal has "no chance" to make it far at Wimbledon, like you implied.

So please don't cherry-pick part of his posts to try and further your agenda.
Click to expand...
How is posting a quote where he explicitly states that he doesn't rule out Nadal making a deep run "cherry-picking"? It's as relevant as it gets.
Also, way to re-word your post after your original post was deleted by mods because you insulted me.
Click to expand...
It's no insult to say a dead man is dead.
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Are you putting words in people's mouths again? He didn't say Nadal had no chance to go far in the tournament: Looks like you need to work on your comprehension.
Click to expand...

true but like why make an entire thread about it just to say i dont know if nadal's chances are high. i'm not the most thrilled about it either because i really want fed to get his no.8 and i know nadal can stop him, but its kind obvious imo that OP is trying his best to sort of down play nadal's chances as a fed fan and i recognize b/c that's what I do in my head rofl
 
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icedevil0289 said:
true but like why make an entire thread about it just to say i dont know if nadal's chances are high. i'm not the most thrilled about it either because i really want fed to get his no.8 and i know nadal can stop him, but its kind obvious imo that OP is trying his best to sort of down play nadal's chances as a fed fan and i recognize b/c that's what I do in my head rofl
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He's just discussing Nadal's chances at Wimbledon, and expressing his viewpoint. That's kind of the point of a Tennis forum, isn't it? You talk like "making an entire thread" is a strange thing to do on a Tennis forum :D
 
Don't see him winning it, if I was to make a prediction I'd say probably quarters to Cilic. But who knows, he's an an amazing year so far.
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Nowhere does he say that Nadal has no chance like you claimed he does. Thanks for proving my point. Can you show me a post from him where he said that Nadal has no chance of making it deep at Wimbledon? Because that's what you claimed.

He doesn't have to believe in Nadal's chances. What's relevant is that he does not think Nadal has "no chance" to make it far at Wimbledon, like you implied.

How is posting a quote where he explicitly states that he doesn't rule out Nadal making a deep run "cherry-picking"? It's as relevant as it gets.
It's no insult to say a dead man is dead.
Click to expand...

I just gave you an example in my post above. He said "does anybody seriously think Nadal will challenge at Wimbledon" and then he provided stats or reasons why he didn't think so. That was only one post I saw quickly but there have been many more in different threads. It doesn't get more obvious than his own words and I'm not playing your silly games where you like to cherry-pick certain words from posts and ignore other words in order to suit your agenda.

That's my final exchange with you on the topic "Mr. I insult people, have the mods delete my posts and then re-word my posts." :rolleyes:
 
The_18th_Slam said:
He's just discussing Nadal's chances at Wimbledon, and expressing his viewpoint. That's kind of the point of a Tennis forum, isn't it? You talk like "making an entire thread" is a strange thing to do on a Tennis forum :D
Click to expand...

well idk if he's "just" discussing nadal's chances at wimbledon. lbr does a fed fan ever "just" discuss? :Dlmao it's not a big deal to be honest, but if OP is going to make a thread, which they have every right to do, i dont see a problem in any post commenting on the nature of the post either as long as its not hateful.
 
cc0509 said:
OP, you sure seem obsessed with Nadal for somebody who says he has no chance to go far in the tournament. :confused:

I think he could make the final. Why? More aggressive play from him this year, a fairly weak batch of younger contenders many of whom are dealing with their own problems/injuries, Murray/Wawrinka in his half unlikely to beat him.
Click to expand...


atleast i am willing to admit, begrudgingly so, that he has his chances and others should be concerned about his level of play. pfttt you said I was obsessed. although i think that word gets thrown around a bit but w/e
 
The_18th_Slam said:
Are you putting words in people's mouths again? He didn't say Nadal had no chance to go far in the tournament: Looks like you need to work on your comprehension.
Click to expand...

From this post I assume my ignore list is doing its job well. I assume it's some poster who is offended by facts and logic. Normally I would not engage, but since you have taken the time to offer your support, for which I am grateful, I will clarify my position.

1. A cursory glance at my posting history will demonstrate I am interested primarily in facts, logic, and rational explanations. If Federer were somehow second favourite at a tournament where he had a terrible 5 year history, and a precedent of under-performing even while being the best or second best player on tour, you can bet I would share the numbers and ask "why"?

2. Nadal is an incredible champion, and I have a lot of respect for him. Unlike someone like, say, Raonic, he has actually won here, so one can't rule out the fact that he might just go ahead and win the damn thing.

3. However, we are faced with a paradox: a large proportion of posters (40% on the poll), and a large proportion of bettors, are expecting Nadal to get at least 5 wins at Wimbledon. That is, to match his win total from the last 5 years. Including likely three wins against big hitters, in good grass form, seeded 30, 16 and 7. Whereas it has been 6 years since he faced that kind of heat at Wimbledon.

4. The objective of this thread is to have a sane and informed discussion to understand the following. What are the factors which lead people to forecast such strong performance by Nadal, in the face of his last 5 years on grass, and his draw.

5. From the discussion so far I have gathered the following factors:
  • new aggressive approach
  • big-hitting opponents perceived to be chokers
  • irrational hysteria by bettors (as exhibited by the person on my ignore list, to whom @The_18th_Slam is replying)
6. My own opinion, and the opinion of 60% of voters on this poll, is that Nadal will be unable to reach the semis. I would love to hear more.
 
falstaff78 said:
the idea to understand why people are so bullish on Nadal. because the facts don't seem to bear this out. please see my detailed post above.

regds.
Click to expand...

hmm w/e floats your boat. stats don't always give us the big picture/whole story. and lol i mean aside from the obvious nadal trolls, who is "bullish" about nadal? interesting word choice too. i'd rather be wary of any competition than pretend or use certain stats to conveniently paint an entire picture. also keep in mind that he has a rather good draw as well. look i don't care for him and I'd rather he not be anywhere near fed's route to get to the final or win. there are many factors that can be taken into account when it comes to prediction, and i think current aggressive play and confidence come into play just as much as his previous year stats. i wouldn't say obsessed because idt thats the case, but you seem bothered by people specifically saying nadal has his chances and idk if its just purely the "statistic" minded view that you are wondering about that, or its the fed fan.
 
He hasn't won a 4th round match at Wimbledon in 6 years, I'd say it's safe to bet on him not reaching the second week.
 
cc0509 said:
I just gave you an example in my post above. He said "does anybody seriously think Nadal will challenge at Wimbledon" and then he provided stats or reasons why he didn't think so. That was only one post I saw quickly but there have been many more in different threads. It doesn't get more obvious than his own words and I'm not playing your silly games where you like to cherry-pick certain words from posts and ignore other words in order to suit your agenda.
Click to expand...
Here is what you said:
cc0509 said:
OP, you sure seem obsessed with Nadal for somebody who says he has no chance to go far in the tournament. :confused:
Click to expand...
Here is what he actually said:
falstaff78 said:
Look I'm not saying Nadal is not capable of a deep run.
Click to expand...
So, tell me, Mr. "I suck at reading comprehension and have to resort to putting words in people's mouths because I'm miserable like that", where exactly he said Nadal has no chance to go far in the tournament? Nowhere, that's where. So work on your comprehension.
 
icedevil0289 said:
well idk if he's "just" discussing nadal's chances at wimbledon. lbr does a fed fan ever "just" discuss? :Dlmao it's not a big deal to be honest, but if OP is going to make a thread, which they have every right to do, i dont see a problem in any post commenting on the nature of the post either as long as its not hateful.
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Commenting on the nature is different to making false claims about what the poster said. That poster has claimed that falstaff said that Nadal has no chance to go far in the tournament, which is a blatant falsehood. And he deserves to be called out for that, because he's making a habit of it.
 
falstaff78 said:
In 2012, aged 26, Nadal showed up to Wimbledon having won the French, having taken peak Djokovic to 7-5 in the fifth set at the AO final, having 3 other clay titles, having reached 5 consecutive major finals, and having reached the final of Wimbledon in 5 consecutive attempts. He lost in R2.

In 2013, aged 27, he showed up with a 43-2 record on the year, including 7 titles on hard and clay, including the French. Lost in straights in R1.

In 2017, he is again French champ and AO finalist. BUT:
  • He last played on grass in 2015
  • He last played vs. top 10 on grass in 2011.
  • He's 31
  • He's 10-7 on grass since 2012 (ave. opp. = 68, median = 63)
  • He's 5-4 at Wimbledon since 2012 (ave. opp. = 85, median = 80)
Full respect to Nadal for being a fighter and an all time great, and for having a great 2017. But he's the second favourite with the bookies. And his odds improved after he was drawn vs a murderer's row of big hitters Khachanov, Muller and Cilic.

Is he not being a bit overhyped here? Am I missing something? How far do you think he'll go?
Click to expand...

Do you trust bookies to make good judgements about tennis? How often are they right? I don't know the answer to these questions myself, I'm not asking ironically.
I would assume he's their 2nd fav (with long odds) because of winning the French (do bookies really understand the huge difference) and because he's ranked 2nd right now, and because he's won Wimb twice.
It's not insane. Who in their right mind would pick Murray or Djok as 2nd, given recent results.

We all know Nadal's very poor recent history at Wimb., and we all know why this happened. He's very vulnerable to big servers, young guns with nothing to lose, early rounds. (Darcis was the exception, Nadal just played terribly there). Nick K has since shown he can do that to top players, ya? And grass was the ideal surface for doing to it to Nadal. Alsp pease remember Nadal is more tired than almost anyone entering Wimb having just won the French. Only two players in history win FOO and WImb back to back--Nadal & Borg.

The more grass wears down, the more he likes it. Get to the 2nd week, he is def the 2nd favourite.

He's 31 is so irrelevant now, you should know that with Fed, Waw, LOpez just won a 500 at 36.

I didn't make a round prediction. I think he's huge unknown on grass this year.
 
Get A Grip said:
Do you trust bookies to make good judgements about tennis? How often are they right? I don't know the answer to these questions myself, I'm not asking ironically.
I would assume he's their 2nd fav (with long odds) because of winning the French (do bookies really understand the huge difference) and because he's ranked 2nd right now, and because he's won Wimb twice.
It's not insane. Who in their right mind would pick Murray or Djok as 2nd, given recent results.

We all know Nadal's very poor recent history at Wimb., and we all know why this happened. He's very vulnerable to big servers, young guns with nothing to lose, early rounds. (Darcis was the exception, Nadal just played terribly there). Nick K has since shown he can do that to top players, ya? And grass was the ideal surface for doing to it to Nadal. Alsp pease remember Nadal is more tired than almost anyone entering Wimb having just won the French. Only two players in history win FOO and WImb back to back--Nadal & Borg.

The more grass wears down, the more he likes it. Get to the 2nd week, he is def the 2nd favourite.

He's 31 is so irrelevant now, you should know that with Fed, Waw, LOpez just won a 500 at 36.

I didn't make a round prediction. I think he's huge unknown on grass this year.
Click to expand...
fedr won the Channel Slam in '09.

Laver also in '69.
 
stringertom said:
fedr won the Channel Slam in '09.

Laver also in '69.
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YOu're right. I saw that stat about only two somewhere (didn't do the math myself) now I wonder where.
Fed beat Soderling and Roddick in a 5th set TB that went to , what 24-22? Something like. I'll never forget that TB.
But also now, it makes me wonder, if Fed was so supreme, how did Roddick take him that far at Wimb?
 
Get A Grip said:
YOu're right. I saw that stat about only two somewhere (didn't do the math myself) now I wonder where.
Fed beat Soderling and Roddick in a 5th set TB that went to , what 24-22? Something like. I'll never forget that TB.
But also now, it makes me wonder, if Fed was so supreme, how did Roddick take him that far at Wimb?
Click to expand...
No TB at the non-USO slams. The fifth set went to 16-14.
 
Get A Grip said:
Do you trust bookies to make good judgements about tennis? How often are they right? I don't know the answer to these questions myself, I'm not asking ironically.
Click to expand...

Bookies will offer the lowest payout that they can get away with for any given player.

If punters are willing to bet on Nadal at 6/1 then the bookies won't offer more.

In other words the odds are a reflection of market sentiment

I think the market has irrational expectations from Nadal. We can see an example of that in this thread, where some poster appears to be getting agitated at the facts and figures I have laid out.
 
hehe you can be my factchecker. Ok maybe i was rememberin rAonic/Tsonga at the olympics. Some set went to 24/22.
I know no TB except USO (JMac will never let me forget, so yes, games played out) and while it's true I got the specifics wrong, the overall fact, that Fed had a lot of difficulty beating Roddick, remains.
 
I do think people have gotten excited and are overrating his chances on the back of his comeback off grass. That said, he has adapted his game somewhat, and I won't dare to write him off either.

But if I'm to go out on a limb, I say he gets by the journeymen this time around, maybe dropping some sets, but that he ultimately gets his behind handed to him in the quarters by Cilic.
 
Last edited:
He'll either go out in the first week or he will reach the final. Once he gets to the fourth round (if he gets there), he will be very dangerous. In a Murray-Nadal semi, I would pick Nadal. But I don't think he would defeat Fed in a final.
 
icedevil0289 said:
hmm w/e floats your boat. stats don't always give us the big picture/whole story. and lol i mean aside from the obvious nadal trolls, who is "bullish" about nadal? interesting word choice too. i'd rather be wary of any competition than pretend or use certain stats to conveniently paint an entire picture. also keep in mind that he has a rather good draw as well. look i don't care for him and I'd rather he not be anywhere near fed's route to get to the final or win. there are many factors that can be taken into account when it comes to prediction, and i think current aggressive play and confidence come into play just as much as his previous year stats. i wouldn't say obsessed because idt thats the case, but you seem bothered by people specifically saying nadal has his chances and idk if its just purely the "statistic" minded view that you are wondering about that, or its the fed fan.
Click to expand...

Sorry to be blunt but you are drawing inaccurate inferences about my reasons.

I want to present the facts and see how people interpet them.
 
falstaff78 said:
Bookies will offer the lowest payout that they can get away with for any given player.

If punters are willing to bet on Nadal at 6/1 then the bookies won't offer more.

In other words the odds are a reflection of market sentiment

I think the market has irrational expectations from Nadal. We can see an example of that in this thread, where some poster appears to be getting agitated at the facts and figures I have laid out.
Click to expand...

I agree with you write. Personally, I have no expectations till I see him play, then I will adjust accordingly.

Does "the market" have reasonable expectations of anything?' But who is a more reasonable choice for 2nd fav?

People seem to always think that was has been the case will continue to be the case, because they have trouble imagining anything else. How often did we see general opinion that Fed was through? That Rafa was through? Then about two years ago, I saw that most tennis pundits, writers etc. were claiming Djok would be untouchable for years to come. They wrote like this in 2016.

Tennis is wildly unpredictable. Except when it isn't, but no-one knows when that will be.
 
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