Can't see Fed winning the French now

C

Coria

Banned
Clearly, Fed cannot and will not beat Nadal on clay. He'd have to have Nadal lose to an inferior (they are all inferior to Nadal on clay) opponent and then seize the moment. My problem with Fed is his "spraying" of groundies at certain times in matches. He got away with it against Andre at the OPEN final and gets away with it against other players.

He will not get away with it against Nadal. I don't think Fed is consistenly patient enough and has the supreme physical strength to outlast Nadal on clay. It's that simple. Also, I think he doesn't have the confidence against this young amazing player that he has against everybody else.

I think if Nadal stays healthy, he'll win the French for at least the next three years and take a run at Borg's mark.

However, Fed is clearly superior to Sampras on the surface--no doubt about that.
 
While it's fun and harmless to make predictions about players results - the truth is nobody knows. I mean, who would've predicted the past 5 years of French Open winners? Nobody. If there's one slam I'll never try and predict a winner of - it's the French. It's like a free-for-all slam in terms of players chances.
 
Spot on, he probably wont even get to the finals. A S.A claycourter will get hot at the right time and knock him out before he can even get to Nadal.
 
Well Fed has the motivation of being down 1-3 to Nadal and was damn close to being 0-4 to him. Rafa's in his head that's for sure. Let's see if Fed can figure out a way...finally a rival for Fed - good for tennis.
 
Well, all he has to do is have Nadal lose before the final.

Nadal's not unbeatable, even on clay. I can see Gasquet beating him, or maybe Coria or Gaudio or Ferrero. Not necessarily too often, but certainly conceivable for one of the Argentines or Spaniards out there to take him out at the French.

Then Federer won't have to face Nadal, and your objection to him winning the French won't hold ;)

...or, the other option is for Fed to beat Nadal himself. It's unlikely for Nadal to end his career undefeated on clay against Federer; even Sampras, who you consider far worse than Federer on clay, got wins over the top claycourters of his day, on clay.

Sampras has, at some point in his career, beaten, on clay, all the players that had won the French Open between 1990 and 2002, with the exception of Gustavo Kuerten who he's never played on clay.

If Sampras can beat the top claycourters, then surely Federer can as well, if he really is clearly superior to Sampras on clay ;)
 
I agree with Max G. Federer has probably a better chance than most think. The biggest thing clouding everything is the Nadal factor of course, but if you take him out of the equation, is there really ANYONE else? that you'd pick over federer even on clay? I think federer will be there and it'll be a crap shoot whether nadal's body holds together. Fed has a better chance than sampras ever had. Course I'll be pissed if fed loses in the first round and completely proves me wrong :)
 
Another analogy:

Remember - even with how dominant Sampras was on GRASS, there was still somebody else who snuck in a Wimbledon win at the very middle of Sampras's dominance.

There's no way that Nadal can be as dominant on clay as Sampras was on grass - it's just too physical of a surface. And thus, there will certainly be players that sneak French Open wins during Nadal's reign, if it lasts, and of everyone in the world Federer probably has the best chance of being that player.
 
Nadal's not unbeatable, even on clay. I can see Gasquet beating him, or maybe Coria or Gaudio or Ferrero. Not necessarily too often, but certainly conceivable for one of the Argentines or Spaniards out there to take him out at the French.
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Have you seen Nadal play those guys? I saw his recent matches with Gasquet, Gaudio, Ferrero. It was no contest. And yeah Coria took Nadal to 5 in Rome last year. But Coria is no longer the same player. Nadal isn't unbeatable on clay, but I think he could be unbeatable at the French this year. His will is too strong (& all the guys you named are grade A headcases)
Nadal would have to have a realy bad day to lose to anyone at the French. I doubt it, this guy has a knack for playing his best on the biggest occasions. I would love to see what the oddsmakers put him at should they play again at the French(they disrespected Nadal in Dubai, he was only +250)

or, the other option is for Fed to beat Nadal himself. It's unlikely for Nadal to end his career undefeated on clay against Federer; even Sampras, who you consider far worse than Federer on clay, got wins over the top claycourters of his day, on clay.
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But Sampras never had to play any of those guys in a French Open final. It would have been a much tougher task. Fed lost his chance to win the French in '04 imo (Guga was on fire that day, otherwise I think Fed would have beaten Gaudio, Coria etc.)

Sampras has, at some point in his career, beaten, on clay, all the players that had won the French Open between 1990 and 2002, with the exception of Gustavo Kuerten who he's never played on clay.
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When did Sampras play Gomez or Moya on clay?
 
I agree wit you coria, so far nadal has shown no relent on to whether or not he's going to let anyone near that french open title. Nadal IMHO has shown far more physical prowess than Fed. The only way Fed has a chance is to play extremly smart and take the chances that are present to him, if there will be any....
 
Yes Fed can't win French since he is still using ankle support and looks like he will be in trouble if ankle is not good..
 
Moose Malloy said:
Nadal would have to have a realy bad day to lose to anyone at the French. I doubt it, this guy has a knack for playing his best on the biggest occasions.
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Based on what?!

There are only four big occasions per year in professional tennis -- the slams. Every match is huge, every match is an elimination match, every match determines whether you stake your place in history, or go down as another also-ran for that entire segment of the year. First round matchups in slams are far, far bigger occasions than a final in forking Dubai.

Over his career, Nadal has "played his best on the biggest occasions" exactly once. He has come up laughably small every other time. The French, if anything, appears to be the anomaly. Nadal has a history of either collapsing on the game's biggest stages, or bowing out entirely.

His run at RG last year was awe inspiring. But right now, it stands out as the lone meaningful win on his resume for greatness.

There is no doubt about it that he is one of the two biggest talents on the tour right now, but right now, he's a one-slam wonder with a history of embarrassing early outs and withdrawals on the biggest occasions.

I hope he wins the French again, just so he can begin to deserve a little of the hype bestowed upon him by the masses who want to heap on accolades for nothing wins, and want to give him a free pass for all his collapses at the tournaments that matter.
 
My underdog for this year's french is Jose Acasuso.
A power hitter from both sides, with great serves, great groundies and good volleys, who loves to play on clay.
 
First round matchups in slams are far, far bigger occasions than a final in forking Dubai.
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I agree that slams are the only thing that matter, but you seem to be going out of your way to dismiss the significance of this win. What was Fed's win streak on hardcourts? How many finals has he lost since '03? How many times has he lost to anyone since '04? And how many of those losses were to Nadal? You didn't give Nadal any chance of winning that match, now that he did you poo-poo it by calling it a meaningless win in a joke event. Nice.

Over his career, Nadal has "played his best on the biggest occasions" exactly once. He has come up laughably small every other time. The French, if anything, appears to be the anomaly. Nadal has a history of either collapsing on the game's biggest stages, or bowing out entirely
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Nadal's results in the slams prior to the '05 French are completely irrelevant since he was not a top 10 player in '03/'04. He was 16/17. The Davis Cup Final of '04 was a very big match(I know you don't think much of Davis Cup, but every historian of the game rates it very highly) & Nadal delivered.

The '05 Wimbledon & US Open losses were disappointing but not unexpected for a young player in the midst of a breakout year. Becker lost to Nystrom at the '85 US Open after winning Wimbledon. Wilander lost early at '82 Wimbledon & US Open. Both improved their consistency in majors the following year. Look at Federer circa '02. The guy was one of the favorites(& he was 20, not 19 like Nadal is now) at the French & Wimbledon & lost in the first round. Nadal was the favorite at the French & won it. He was not a favorite at Wimbledon.

Regardless my response was to the original post about the French. We can agree the French is a big occasion. And I think Nadal will be at his best there. Not exactly a shocking prediction, but you seem to think otherwise.

Keep telling yourself Nadal is inferior to Federer in every way, and I'll keep laughing my way to the bank like I did on Saturday. Plus +250? I felt like I was stealing..
 
Whoever wins Monte Carlo and Rome will win the French. If Federer & Nadal meet in the final, Roger will be more than ready for Rafael. Nadal has been skipping all the small clay court tournaments that he won last year to play on hard courts this year. He is not going to be as dominant on clay as he was last year. If Roger can win in Rome & Monte Carlo, then you have to like him to win the French.
 
If Nadal plays as many clay court matches this year as he did in April/May 2005 then he most likely will be seriously injured by the end of May and will not even make it to the FO final. Will have to skip Wimbledon and be lucky to play in USO.

So my guess is that if gets on a roll in April then he will skip Rome and Hamburg in May.
 
Grimjack said:
Based on what?!

There are only four big occasions per year in professional tennis -- the slams. Every match is huge, every match is an elimination match, every match determines whether you stake your place in history, or go down as another also-ran for that entire segment of the year. First round matchups in slams are far, far bigger occasions than a final in forking Dubai.

Over his career, Nadal has "played his best on the biggest occasions" exactly once. He has come up laughably small every other time. The French, if anything, appears to be the anomaly. Nadal has a history of either collapsing on the game's biggest stages, or bowing out entirely.

His run at RG last year was awe inspiring. But right now, it stands out as the lone meaningful win on his resume for greatness.

There is no doubt about it that he is one of the two biggest talents on the tour right now, but right now, he's a one-slam wonder with a history of embarrassing early outs and withdrawals on the biggest occasions.

I hope he wins the French again, just so he can begin to deserve a little of the hype bestowed upon him by the masses who want to heap on accolades for nothing wins, and want to give him a free pass for all his collapses at the tournaments that matter.
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Grim, Jack. Very grim that he has only got ONE measly slam title.
Dude, he is only 19.


BTW, I still lauging about the 'forking Dubai' line.
Why that is funny to me, I do not know, but it's got a nice ring to it.
 
Grimjack , you think winning 4 masters and a slam in a year is falling "laughably short" on the big occasions? I agree with you though , at Wimby and the USO he could have done beter
 
Tchocky said:
Whoever wins Monte Carlo and Rome will win the French. If Federer & Nadal meet in the final, Roger will be more than ready for Rafael. Nadal has been skipping all the small clay court tournaments that he won last year to play on hard courts this year. He is not going to be as dominant on clay as he was last year. If Roger can win in Rome & Monte Carlo, then you have to like him to win the French.
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and if 3 different players share the 3 masters series on clay... how do you compute the name of the future french open winner ?! ;)

appart from that, i think you're putting the finger on an interesting point : will playing on hardcourt alter nadal's claycourt game ?
if my memory is right, muster and kuerten struggled a bit on clay once they played good on hardcourt...
 
I'd say the favorites are:

Nadal, Gasquet, Acasuso, Verdasco, and Coria
 
vive le beau jeu ! said:
will playing on hardcourt alter nadal's claycourt game ?
if my memory is right, muster and kuerten struggled a bit on clay once they played good on hardcourt...
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That is a very interesting hypothesis. Who knows, maybe hard court makes players feel that they can put away the ball soon enough, and they later have trouble letting go of that feeling on clay, where you need to work the point.
Rafa has a lot going for him now, he has to be very, very confident as to his chances against Fed. Much more so on clay. Fed is in trouble, even with his big lead in points. Should Rafa stay healthy, he will defend the French and after winning Indian Wells and Miami :) he will be closing in. That should be fun.
 
I watched Gasquet's match against Fed, and there's something I don't understand... don't the two of them have similar playing styles? Shotmaking all courters... so how come Gasquet is deemed as a clay courter?
 
ta11geese3 said:
I watched Gasquet's match against Fed, and there's something I don't understand... don't the two of them have similar playing styles? Shotmaking all courters... so how come Gasquet is deemed as a clay courter?
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yes there are similar...... both being very very very talented !
(maybe richard's game is more "risky" than roger's ?)
and...... what a backhand !!! :D
maybe he's deemed as a clay courter because he once said it was his favorite surface ?... or because he revealed himself on this surface ?
http://www.itftennis.com/Mens/players/player.asp?player=30022225

anyway now it's obvious richard a multi-surface and a complete player. his Achilles' heel (for the moment) is the mental strength. he's already able to play entire big matches (cf davis cup vs haas) but he's not consistent enough (then he collapsed in the last set vs clement in the 1st round at marseille... and it was more mental than physical collapsing)
nevertheless, he's still 19... he has time for working this and fully express his amazing talent !

such an exciting game, and a bright future to come...
my favorite, with baghatis, among the "young guns" !
 
ta11geese3 said:
I watched Gasquet's match against Fed, and there's something I don't understand... don't the two of them have similar playing styles? Shotmaking all courters... so how come Gasquet is deemed as a clay courter?
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Because his best results have come on clay - a TMS Semi and a TMS Final.

His first tournament win came on grass, he's not a dirtballer like some out there. He has the potential to play well on all surfaces.

Actually, so far I don't think he's ever done well on hardcourts - good results on clay and on grass, but I don't remember him getting far in any hardcourt tournaments.
 
He'll win it. The drive is too strong. Someone else might knock Nadal out...I get the feeling he's going to lose on clay sometime.
 
Can't see Fed winning the French now
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Yes. The reason you cant see is because French open isnt until May and they dont want to play it in March. If you can wait a few more months, you can see it.
 
The logic of Spock ...

Tennis_Monk said:
Yes. The reason you cant see is because French open isnt until May and they dont want to play it in March. If you can wait a few more months, you can see it.
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^^The TAO of Tennis Monk.^^

Okay, enquiring minds want to know:

Trappist or Buddhist?
Gregorian chants or throat singing?
A vow of celibacy or were you able to swing an exemption?
 
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