Carlos Alcaraz Garfia; the next big star?

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
I want Carlos to take all the time he needs to be fully recovered and healthy before he returns to the tour. I have been reading Pete Sampras's 2008 autobiography and what he has to say about being a teenaged tennis player and learning the game during those formative years on the men's tour have made me see how we need to see Carlos's path going forward: it's going to have a whole lot of ups and downs over the next few years while he is learning his craft of playing great tennis.

I know Talk Tennis posters will see every loss as the end of any possibility of his ever winning a slam or as the end of his tennis career altogether. Outside of a career-ending injury it simply will not be true!

I will look forward to his return to the tour with great interest once he is recovered and healthy!
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
Carlos Alcaraz will play in the exhibition tournament organized by the JC Ferrero Equelite Sport Academy. Today's (Thursday) match will start at 7:00pm (local time).

He'll travel early next week to Indian Wells.
 

James P

G.O.A.T.
Carlos Alcaraz will play in the exhibition tournament organized by the JC Ferrero Equelite Sport Academy. Today's (Thursday) match will start at 7:00pm (local time).
Good sign he'll be in IW next week.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
Carlos Alcaraz will play in the exhibition tournament organized by the JC Ferrero Equelite Sport Academy. Today's (Thursday) match will start at 7:00pm (local time).

He'll travel early next week to Indian Wells.
Is he playing Indian Wells? I didn't realize he has recovered enough to play? Oh this is good news. Even if he doesn't have a deep run I am glad he will be back on the tour competing - so long as he's fully recovered from his injuries. I don't need him to win but I would love for him to have many deep runs for the rest of this year while he continues to improve his game and figures out how to utilize his tremendous skills without harming his body.
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
Is he playing Indian Wells? I didn't realize he has recovered enough to play? Oh this is good news. Even if he doesn't have a deep run I am glad he will be back on the tour competing - so long as he's fully recovered from his injuries. I don't need him to win but I would love for him to have many deep runs for the rest of this year while he continues to improve his game and figures out how to utilize his tremendous skills without harming his body.
According to MARCA, a Spanish national daily sports newspaper, he'll play Indian Wells. I posted a link.
 

Visionary

Professional
I wonder, if it went against him with respect to ranking points, had Carlos decided not to play IW. I understand that few players, such as Roger, Novak or Rafa, are exempt from having to participate in the important tournaments without consequences.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
So far I have heard that Carlos would play the winner of the Murray vs Mannarino match in the second round, but I missed who his first round opponent is. I heard that if he won the second round he would most likely play Zverev in the third round...
 

Marius_Hancu

Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, no doubt future star - I could tell in the first 5 minutes the guy has the most surprising changes of game and rhythm.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Very exiting to watch, enjoyed is GS run very much. With all those young guns I always hope that their body holds up. Every player will have his injuries but preventing most, avoiding deeper issues and recuperating correctly will be on of the keys of success. It is a pity to hear of his niggles but it seems that he and his staff are wiser then others...
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Tour-Level Seasons Top
Mouse over column headers (on all tables) for stat definitions. Click on years for results from that season.
Year​
W​
L​
Win%​
Set%​
Game%​
TB%​
Hld%​
Brk%​
A%​
DF%​
1stIn​
1st%​
2nd%​
SPW​
RPW​
TPW​
DR​
Best​
2021
22​
14​
61.1%​
55.7%​
53.1%​
52.9%​
74.1%​
32.1%​
3.3%​
2.8%​
62.9%​
67.0%​
52.5%​
61.6%​
41.3%​
51.3%​
1.08​
W (Umag)
2020
1​
1​
50.0%​
50.0%​
48.5%​
100.0%​
68.8%​
25.0%​
2.6%​
3.8%​
65.0%​
66.4%​
42.7%​
58.1%​
42.6%​
50.1%​
1.02​
R16 (Rio De Janeiro)
Career
23​
15​
60.5%​
55.3%​
52.8%​
57.9%​
73.7%​
31.6%​
3.3%​
2.9%​
63.0%​
66.9%​
51.8%​
61.3%​
41.4%​
51.2%​
1.07​


Remarkable how much he played at the tour level this year and not only compared to last year. He is now a regular and busy pro.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
The y(earl)Elo ranking shows a how well he has done in a short timeframe. Lots of tourneys. Nishikori being sadly Nishi and Isner being a better Opelka stand out on the lower side with Nadal also husbanding his forces. Plus the current ATP ranking are stinking ever more...


Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2021-10-04
Rank​
Player​
Wins​
Losses​
yElo​
1​
43​
6​
2203.8​
2​
46​
10​
2168.1​
3​
42​
12​
2167.7​
4​
24​
5​
2121.7​
5​
37​
9​
2092.8​
6​
43​
11​
2065.5​
7​
49​
15​
2057.9​
8​
37​
15​
1991.7​
9​
35​
13​
1981.1​
10​
24​
16​
1977.5​
11​
44​
16​
1973.9​
12​
36​
17​
1964.7​
13​
30​
19​
1958.8​
14​
22​
10​
1958.2​
15​
44​
20​
1955.9​
16​
41​
18​
1952.7​
17​
30​
16​
1944.7​
18​
36​
9​
1922.2​
19​
28​
17​
1905.0​
20​
19​
17​
1901.8​
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
When will Carlos be playing next?
Vsmos, you obviously like to follow the sport so I’m surprised you haven’t explored to find great tools available readily on the Internet for no subscription cost. The most versatile source for all sorts of information related to rankings, race updates AND upcoming player schedules would be found at live-tennis.eu. I keep a page on my iPhobe open with their home page but you can download their app by searching the App Store for “live tennis ranking” (ltr). For $9.99/year you can experience it ad-free.

I just searched this time for the answer to your Alcaraz inquiry and, as of today, his next stop is in Vienna (week 25 October) for qualifying. That may change if and when withdrawals above him happen. My best guess is he’s about three spots outside direct entry instead of having to qualify.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Plenty of talent, very spinny forehand and a variable game. He is of course a Spanish dirtballer but does far better then most on hardcourt. Without the ranking shenanigans he would have an easier time to show his qualities. Maybe the most precocious player at this very early state since the rise of Nadal :censored:

Zverev and Sinner are tough benchmarks while avoiding the GOATmark. Against Evans we saw the usual problems of such very young, mostly with the serve.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
A. MURRAYC. ALCARAZ
POINTS WON
350-4 SHOTS38
285-8 SHOTS18
119+ SHOTS22


Sad for Murray, happy for Alcaraz. Great game by the youngster. Murray clearly not his old self and a bit eager to finish when years back he would have let the other make the mistake...


AVERAGE FOREHAND AND BACKHAND RPM
2489 RPMFOREHAND3031 RPM
1801 RPMBACKHAND2135 RPM


A. MURRAYC. ALCARAZ
AVERAGE FOREHAND AND BACKHAND SPEED
123.1 KPHFOREHAND120.7 KPH
115.8 KPHBACKHAND114.2 KPH


Lots of shot and will power, great movement and endurance and a variable intelligent game. He is of course a lot better then his current ranking suggests, his Elo ranking of 16 reflects his current form. Apart from the serve he is already a Top15 player.

Frankly I only fear for his body. He will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Right now he seems to play smartest among the rising European talent, especially considering his age. He and Sinner are arguably the most balanced surface-wise which means lots of point potential. Musetti is despite his Acapulco run more of a clayer while Brooskby grew up on hard.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
Happy that Carlos was able to make a deep run at the Vienna Open - all the way to the semis - it was too much to ask that he defeat two top ten players in a row and Zverev showed up for his semi playing his best tennis - it's never possible to know which Zverev will show up on any given day.

I see excellent progress being made by Carlos on his serve - he is not only consistently getting a high first serve percentage but even more importantly he has often done even better with his second serves! True, he's not getting free points with aces or serve plus ones but this is something he can work on over time. When he is playing his best he is a top ten player already and when he isn't playing his best it is because the other player is at their best. So long as he continues to improve that is what will make me happy!
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
Carlos continues to win a higher percentage of his second serve points than his first serve points and in the first round in Paris again he is actually serving quite well comparatively. Yes, he still needs to improve his service games but he is actually doing quite well with what he has already - improvement will lead to more wins and a higher ranking. I continue to be impressed.

Since I think Alcaraz vs Sinner is going to be the next big rivalry of the future their first men's ATP tour meeting will be an interesting one. Win or lose it is the beginning of something that I think will be special over the next 10-15 years in men's tennis.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
obviously I was extremely disappointed but here's the thing: WHY do they have matches past midnight? Gaston handled it better than Carlos did. I really thought Carlos was going to make a comeback and there would be a third set, and then 17 points in a row ): All I can hope for is that Carlos learns from this experience and never does it again! But props to Gaston for being able to handle the bad situation.

Here's hoping Carlos performs well next week.
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
Carlos high 2nd serve percentage relative to his first tells quite the story, just like with Sinner.

I doubt that he will serve as well as Sinner at the age of 22 but he is already muscular and will improve with experience and training.

This will make a collapse like in the second set far less likely
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
So he ended 2021 on a high note by winning the Next Gen ATP finals and he has moved up to #32 so he will get seeded at the Australian Open. He moved up 116 rankings in the past 10 months or so. He won the Umag Open, has defeated 3 top ten players, and has gotten to several semis and quarter-finals. He has been improving his game and shows a willingness to continue to improve his game. He is in my opinion already a top 20 player (despite the #32 ranking). Here's hoping for a great 2022! Stay healthy, Carlos!!!
 

robow7

Professional
I don't think this young man has any limits as to his tennis future. Definitely would not be surprised to see him top 10 within the year and can only hope that injuries won't derail his upward climb.
 

happyandbob

Hall of Fame
Where do you see the limits in his game then?
He hits the ball too hard, if the balls explode on his side the court, he'll lose that point. He's too comfortable at the net, it will lead to being too casual on volleys. He drop shots too well, will eventually lead to him playing like Gaston. He runs too fast, he'll wear out shoes too fast causing him to slip when trying to change direction.

Also his serve is terrible. At 18, I've only seen him serve 213 kph on his first serve. Horrible.
 

BGod

Legend
Where do you see the limits in his game then?
It always comes down to mental. But his backhand isn't special and he's not an attacking player to me.

1-3 Slams isn't bad. Rafter had 2.

I think Big 3 have made it seem any future top player can win 10+ Slams
 

Rovesciarete

Semi-Pro
I can't wrap my head around the fact that people discount a fast rising player at eighteen because it isn't serving as well as mature players.

It is completely the opposite. If he's doing already so well without the big serve which is arguably the element which gets improved the most between 18 and 23 then one has to rate him higher not lower. At least one of the size of Carlos...
 

happyandbob

Hall of Fame
1-3 Slams isn't bad. Rafter had 2.

I think Big 3 have made it seem any future top player can win 10+ Slams
Just curious. Who are the other magic youths who will be winning all of the other grand slams from Alcaraz's generation? Since you're saying it's so unlikely that there will be many more 10+ slam winners coming up, there must be several that you think will be winning 6-8 slams, right?
 
I disagree with "his backhand isn't special" it looks rock solid to me, it's not like you can feel safe because you hit the ball to his backhand instead of his forehand
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
I disagree with "his backhand isn't special" it looks rock solid to me, it's not like you can feel safe because you hit the ball to his backhand instead of his forehand
Backhand looks good in highlights, but I think the average shot quality still isn't amazing. Alcaraz didn't look comfortable going backhand to backhand with the likes of Zverev whereas he would salivate at getting the forehand exchanges.

But the technique is absolutely there, I would mostly blame the 'weakness' in the backhand on the fact that he runs around to hit his forehand so much.


Carlos will play Davis Cup finals, but after that doesn't expect to enter any other events until AO.

Good decision. The off season is way too short.
Fantastic IMO, I was a little worried he would overplay early in the season next year. He's a top 10 level player when he's on and he should schedule as if to go deep in Slams
 

BGod

Legend
Just curious. Who are the other magic youths who will be winning all of the other grand slams from Alcaraz's generation? Since you're saying it's so unlikely that there will be many more 10+ slam winners coming up, there must be several that you think will be winning 6-8 slams, right?
Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Ruud, Sinner, De Minaur, Musetti. If guys like Thiem, Opelka, Khachanov, Hurkacz make runs, etc.

I mean over a 12 year period that's 48 Slams. So you could easily have nobody winning 8+ since 12 contenders evenly splitting just for math would mean 4 each.

After AO became a staple for top players in late 80s, only Sampras, Agassi & Big 3 won more than 6. And that's considering Becker who won his 6th in mid 90s, Courier comes next with 4.

Guys like Richard Gasquet and Thomas Berdych were hyped to win multiple Slams because they had early wins against prime Federer (Berdych actually beat Fed in 04 at 18)

So you'll forgive me being skeptical Alcaraz wins more than 3 Slams.
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Ruud, Sinner, De Minaur, Musetti. If guys like Thiem, Opelka, Khachanov, Hurkacz make runs, etc.

I mean over a 12 year period that's 48 Slams. So you could easily have nobody winning 8+ since 12 contenders evenly splitting just for math would mean 4 each.

After AO became a staple for top players in late 80s, only Sampras, Agassi & Big 3 won more than 6. And that's considering Becker who won his 6th in mid 90s, Courier comes next with 4.

Guys like Richard Gasquet and Thomas Berdych were hyped to win multiple Slams because they had early wins against prime Federer (Berdych actually beat Fed in 04 at 18)

So you'll forgive me being skeptical Alcaraz wins more than 3 Slams.
De Minaur?
 

Tshooter

G.O.A.T.
It always comes down to mental. But his backhand isn't special and he's not an attacking player to me.

1-3 Slams isn't bad. Rafter had 2.

I think Big 3 have made it seem any future top player can win 10+ Slams
o_O

In the past 15 years only 9 men have won a Major (that’s counting Thiem at the Covid Open). And during such period only 5 men have won more than one. If I counted correctly, only 22 men have won 3 or more in the entire Open era (counting Kodes’ 1973 W title).

Winning one Major will remain a dream for almost all players and winning 3 Majors would put you in a very elite group. Not bad. ;)
 

Aabye5

Hall of Fame
o_O

In the past 15 years only 9 men have won a Major (that’s counting Thiem at the Covid Open). And during such period only 5 men have won more than one. If I counted correctly, only 22 men have won 3 or more in the entire Open era (counting Kodes’ 1973 W title).

Winning one Major will remain a dream for almost all players and winning 3 Majors would put you in a very elite group. Not bad. ;)
But it's possible that we could see a surge in players who have won 3 or more in the next few years.
 

BGod

Legend
o_O

In the past 15 years only 9 men have won a Major (that’s counting Thiem at the Covid Open). And during such period only 5 men have won more than one. If I counted correctly, only 22 men have won 3 or more in the entire Open era (counting Kodes’ 1973 W title).

Winning one Major will remain a dream for almost all players and winning 3 Majors would put you in a very elite group. Not bad. ;)
My point exactly.
 

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Hall of Fame
I am thinking about areas of improvement for Carlos in 2022 - I have seen improvements in his serving but certainly more work there is needed - more consistency; harnessing his power - his shot-making abilities are already great but I would like to see him harness the power more, be more thoughtful in his selections; overhead smashes need to be worked on too. I believe he is doing a great job listening to his coaches and improving these areas. With higher rankings he won't have to play much higher ranked players quite so soon in tournaments and this will help him too. He is going to be upsetting some of them from time to time and going deeper in tournaments next year. Looking forward to watching his talent unfold and a steady climb up the rankings in 2022!!!!
 

Tennisfan339

Professional
I am hoping for a Medvedev/Alcaraz match in Davis Cup.
Does anyone know if it's going to happen? Or will it be Medvedev vs Carreno-Busta instead?
Spain and Russia are both in Group A. They will normally face off in Madrid on November 28.
But I'm not sure these 2 will directly play against each other. I hope so. I wanna see how much Aclaraz can trouble him on Hard courts...
(Regardless, even if Medvedev plays PCB, it'll probably be Alcaraz/Rublev instead... still a good test for him)
 
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happyandbob

Hall of Fame
I am thinking about areas of improvement for Carlos in 2022
Based on following his development over the last couple of years, I'm sure he and his team have been thinking about his areas of improvement a lot more than any of us here. I suggest just sitting back and enjoying his career unfold. I'm very optimistic about his ceiling.
 
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