% chances for Rafa & Novak at 2023 Slams

[paolo2143]

Assuming and it is a big assumption that both Rafa & Novak are eligible and fit enough to play each of the 4 GS's in 2023, what does everyone think their rough % chances of winning are in each of them

For me it is as below:

Australian Open Novak 40%, Rafa 20%
French Open- Novak 20% or less, Rafa 50%
Wimbledon Novak 50%, Raf 20% or less
Us Open Novak 25% Rafa 20%

While i think i would rate Novak as favourite to win Australian open and Wimbledon, overall i rate the rest of the field's chances slightly higher.

Normally i have Rafa as almost a lock at RG and usually 85% plus on winning before event. However, I thought he looked vulnerable a fee times in 2022 event and by time 2023 rolls round i think he is 50-50 at best.

 

[MiHo]

The chances wil depend heavily on the draw, in a big match, I wil always favour the old guys, but in a squence of tough opponents, it will be difficult for Djoko and Rafa.

 

[jl809]

AO Djoker 60% Nadal 15%
FO Nadal 60% Djoker 30%
W Djoker 80% Nadal 10%
UO Djoker 35% Nadal 20%

 

[Cortana]

AO Djokovic 70% Nadal 15%
FO Nadal 70% Djokovic 25%
W Djokovic 90% Nadal 5%
USO Djokovic 25% Nadal 20%

 

[weakera]

 

[Hitman]

AO Djoker 60% Nadal 15%
FO Nadal 60% Djoker 30%
W Djoker 80% Nadal 10%
UO Djoker 35% Nadal 20%

This seems more accurate.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

AO Djoker 60% Nadal 15%
FO Nadal 60% Djoker 30%
W Djoker 80% Nadal 10%
UO Djoker 35% Nadal 20%

I sense. So Alcaraz, Med, Sinner, and rest of the field have a combined 10% chance?

 

[InsuranceMan]

Top left trophy a bit lacking, glad organizers upped the budget

 

[Biotic]

FO: Djoko - puncher's chance
AO: Nadal - vulture's chance

 

[Mustard]

People are assuming Djokovic plays those hardcourt majors now?

 

[jl809]

I sense. So Alcaraz, Med, Sinner, and rest of the field have a combined 10% chance?

If Nadal gets knocked out of the French Open I just can’t see a situation in which Djokovic isn’t there finding some way through with the opportunity. Even if it’s like RG 21 where he has to battle back. At Wimbledon I put Nadal at 10%, same as the entire rest of the field put together, because the field seems so far behind. Sinner would not have taken 2 sets off him at Wimb with his (Nadal’s) 3rd and 4th round form and he literally won a QF match with no serve or BH

 

[RS]

AO - Djokovic 65% , Nadal 15%
RG - Nadal 65% , Djokovic 15%
Wim - Djokovic 85% , Nadal 3%
USO - Nadal 10% (Djokovic won't play)

 

[MichaelNadal]

FO: Djoko - puncher's chance
AO: Nadal - vulture's chance

I want dead meat on the ground

 

[dapchai]

AO - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
RG - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
WC - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
USO - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)

 

[Silentchimera]

Top left trophy a bit lacking, glad organizers upped the budget

He needs 16 FO to make the collage work better. That should give him some extra motivation for sure.

 

[mike danny]

Djokodal are the favorites at 3/4 slams (if Djokovic is even allowed to play at the AO).

 

[zvelf]

If Nadal gets knocked out of the French Open I just can’t see a situation in which Djokovic isn’t there finding some way through with the opportunity. Even if it’s like RG 21 where he has to battle back.

Prescient.

AO - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
RG - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
WC - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)
USO - Alcaraz 100% (so Nadalovic 0%)

Not prescient.