Chances of Nadal Calendar slam if Djokovic doesn't take part in any of them?

Chances for Rafa Calendar slam in Djokovic absence

  • Chances improve considerably

    Votes: 39 38.6%

  • Chances are a bit better

    Votes: 23 22.8%

  • Leave it, it's nil regardless!

    Votes: 39 38.6%
  • Total voters
    101
Backspin1183 said:
Doesn't matter Djoker or not, he isn't winning a CYGS at 35/36.
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It does. Don’t think anyone else left on tour can beat him in best of 5 set match provided he stays healthy. That includes on grass too if Djokovic isn’t there and Fed is practically finished now.

He will definitely win the french. If there is no djokovic at Wimbledon and with Fed semi retired he’s a slight favourite there and his track record at us open is good. It is certainly doable in my eyes. These next gen or younger players just don’t have it.
 
He has a decent chance but Djokovic has to be kept out, otherwise he will make Nadal irrelevant for the rest of the year, again.
 
It improves Nadal’s chances everywhere. I would be ecstatic with a 2 slam year let alone 3 or the freaking CYGS.

One step at a time because honestly nothing is close to guaranteed at his age
 
Why are people talking up Nadal's chances at Wimbledon so much? I know the grass field is beyond rubbish but he hasn't done crapola there since 2011 now. OK I know there are 2 years he only lost to Federer/Djokovic, but look at who he beat those years too, literally the only quality win even by a small scale in 10 years is Del Potro. No I am not thinking 34 year old semi retired Tsonga. And the long list of obscure nobodies he has lost to at Wimbledon since 2011. His knees have been shot for awhile, and that is one big reason he has been virtually done on grass forever now. Although 2018 was a good shot at the title, but he blew it, and now that is it. 2019 he only reached an easy loss to grandpa Federer due to a great draw (clay courter Sousa and past prime Querrey in R16/quarters respectively).
 
martinezownsclay said:
Why are people talking up Nadal's chances at Wimbledon so much? I know the grass field is beyond rubbish but he hasn't done crapola there since 2011 now. OK I know there are 2 years he only lost to Federer/Djokovic, but look at who he beat those years too. And the long list of obscure nobodies he has lost to at Wimbledon since 2011.
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Who will he face this year who is a bigger grass threat than the players he defeated in 2018/2019? Zverev lol? Hurkacz?
 
weakera said:
Who will he face this year who is a bigger grass threat than the players he defeated in 2018/2019? Zverev lol? Hurkacz?
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I would probably pick Shapapalov, FAA, Djokovic (if there), Berrettini (their match in Australia was decently close, so on grass Nadal is a likely loser), and yes possibly even Hurkacz and Zverev (if not in the finals) over him at Wimbledon. Yes the grass field is garbage, but I still don't see someone who has done nothing on grass, apart from 1 good Wimbledon in 2018, in 10 years, and whose knees are shot, winning Wimbledon.

Anyone who can even give Djokovic a decent match on grass is nearly certain to win over Nadal on grass.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
It does. Don’t think anyone else left on tour can beat him in best of 5 set match provided he stays healthy. That includes on grass too if Djokovic isn’t there and Fed is practically finished now.

He will definitely win the french. If there is no djokovic at Wimbledon and with Fed semi retired he’s a slight favourite there and his track record at us open is good. It is certainly doable in my eyes. These next gen or younger players just don’t have it.
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I see him the favourite for RG with or without Novak in the draw. Novak's absence at Wimbledon will help a lot but only if Rafa survives the early rounds with big servers. At USO Zverev, Medvedev and Thiem (if he returns healthy) would be a problem for him.
 
I will break it down. I will assume that he’s healthy for each tourney all the way through.

FO: 80% chance of winning
WI: 30% chance
USO: 40%

No injuries: 60% chance

Thus, given the above, I give him a 5.8%
Chance of winning the CYGS with no joker in the way That’s about 1/18 chance
 
Backspin1183 said:
I see him the favourite for RG with or without Novak in the draw. Novak's absence at Wimbledon will help a lot but only if Rafa survives the early rounds with big servers. At USO Zverev, Medvedev and Thiem (if he returns healthy) would be a problem for him.
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I agree those players would be a problem for him at us open but they have an issue getting the job done against him in a big slam match. I agree that the first week of Wimbledon is a danger for Nadal. If he makes the 2nd week though and there’s no Djokovic or Federer of old present then he’s a big favourite in my eyes.
 
Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:
I agree those players would be a problem for him at us open but they have an issue getting the job done against him in a big slam match. I agree that the first week of Wimbledon is a danger for Nadal. If he makes the 2nd week though and there’s no Djokovic or Federer of old present then he’s a big favourite in my eyes.
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Oh yes, not facing Novak in a Wimbledon semi final or final would help a lot. By then the grass isn't very slick and return of serve gets easier. He'd be a favourite against anyone else by then.

Nadal's biggest problem on grass since his resurgence in 2017 has been his return of serve. Everything else is there for him to win another trophy. But standing 6-7 feet behind the baseline to return serves on grass just has not worked for him.

When you watch his old Wimbledon video clips on YouTube you can see he stood much closer to the baseline which had helped him to return serves a lot more effectively, and won him two trophies. He just doesn't do that anymore. Maybe he's just not confident anymore.

He won this AO by standing close to the baseline to return serves. If he can do it at Wimbledon too, his chances to win another Wimby would go up for me. If he sticks to return from the front row of spectators, he can fall to any big hitter in good form.
 
martinezownsclay said:
I would probably pick Shapapalov, FAA, Djokovic (if there), Berrettini (their match in Australia was decently close, so on grass Nadal is a likely loser), and yes possibly even Hurkacz and Zverev (if not in the finals) over him at Wimbledon. Yes the grass field is garbage, but I still don't see someone who has done nothing on grass, apart from 1 good Wimbledon in 2018, in 10 years, and whose knees are shot, winning Wimbledon.

Anyone who can even give Djokovic a decent match on grass is nearly certain to win over Nadal on grass.
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:-D :laughing:
 
I got Nadal for RG. Not sure yet about Wimbledon since I've never seen him play at age 36 and whether his legs will need time for recuperation. He seems like he's really only got 1 big performance in him per Slam before the vessel is empty. So the draw will be crucial for him on grass and hards.
 
FrontHeadlock said:
You may be talking to the wrong person. I have said numerous times on this thread that I think his chances are zero.
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Yup, pretty much. I think he can win RG with the confidence he has right now after winning AO. At Wimbledon, his confidence can't help him if he doesn't improve his return, by standing close to the baseline.
 
Backspin1183 said:
Yup, pretty much. I think he can win RG with the confidence he has right now after winning AO. At Wimbledon, his confidence can't help him if he doesn't improve his return, by standing close to the baseline.
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Nadal usually makes the right tactical adjustments for grass and steps in closer to the baseline. He's a great grass courter as evidenced by his wins and deep runs, losing only to the very elite most recently. At nearly 36 though, It's about whether his body can hold up for the duration of the calendar. But I think this discussion is for naught. Tim Henman just said a few hours ago that Djokovic will be playing Wimbledon.
 
weakera said:
:-D :laughing:
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What is so funny. Look at the list of people who have beaten Nadal at Wimbledon since 2011. A ton of people WAY, way worse than all those I named. Do you want me to post the list of people he lost to at the big W since 2011. And in fact he has only beaten 1 person arguably better than those I named in 10 freaking years at Wimbledon, that being a past his prime Del Potro. And no a 35 year old semi retired, unseeded, way past prime Tsonga does not qualify as better than those I named. Anyway whatever, if Nadal somehow wins Wimbledon get back to me. Won't happen.

He has a good shot at the other 2 slams though, although US Open will be harder than French of course.
 
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intrepidish said:
It's typically lowering it by a range of percentage points as a rule. And yes in one sense, vaccine makers are going to be playing from behind particularly when the 'reservoir' for the public health issue in question isn't sufficiently reduced.
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martinezownsclay said:
What is so funny. Look at the list of people who have beaten Nadal at Wimbledon since 2011. A ton of people WAY, way worse than all those I named. Do you want me to post the list of people he lost to at the big W since 2011. And in fact he has only beaten 1 person arguably better than those I named in 10 freaking years at Wimbledon, that being a past his prime Del Potro. And no a 35 year old semi retired, unseeded, way past prime Tsonga does not qualify as better than those I named. Anyway whatever, if Nadal somehow wins Wimbledon get back to me. Won't happen.

He has a good shot at the other 2 slams though, although US Open will be harder than French of course.
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He was literally a handful of points away from beating the 3rd-most prolific player of all time at W (and winning W as he would have beaten Anderson).
 
The best predictor of future 'behavior' is pertinent past 'behavior'.

Rafa is often injured. Sad to think he will be again before the year is over.
 
Cupcake said:
The best predictor of future 'behavior' is pertinent past 'behavior'.

Rafa is often injured. Sad to think he will be again before the year is over.
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He won’t be injured if Novak isn’t there. He’ll be running like it’s 05 again :D
 
FrontHeadlock said:
He was literally a handful of points away from beating the 3rd-most prolific player of all time at W (and winning W as he would have beaten Anderson).
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Sure but that was the ONLY impressive performance he had on grass since 2011. I don't even count 2019 where he only got to the semis due to a cushy draw then lost easily to old Fed. Otherwise he has been some DNPs, losing to Brown, losing to Muller, losing Darcis, losing to baby Kygrios, losing to Rosol, etc..But hey even though he has been dead on grass for a decade, bar one good performance, he will magically win Wimbledon again at 35.

And for the record I am not one who underestimates Nadal. I am the very one who started a thread that he was going to win the Australian Open this year. He definitely isn't winning Wimbledon again though, period, no matter how terrible the field is.
 
I wanna see more of Nadal this year. Due to the foot problem, and then covid, he didn't get to train much. You could see he was gased, so much so, that he couldn't celebrate points in the last set and a half in the final.

He did show an improved serve though. He had many errors with it, but he lacked training and match play. I'm very curious to see what he can do with it. His 2nd serve speed was on par with Medvedev's, and that's no joke. Could prove crucial for Wimbledon.
 
Mustard said:
On foreign citizens?
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Don't know. In general, they are. For instance Denmark and Germany. Also Spain, although slower...
Djokovic's problem for RG would not be entering the country, then the rules are the same for all, which as of now are the need of a vaccination passport to enter sporting venues among others.

So much can happen so fast. I believe he'll be screwed for most of the first half of the year, but I think he'll be able to play most of the second half. Maybe it's just wishful thinking since I really wanna be over with the pandemic... that's my prediction (I've been wrong before).
 
MadariKatu said:
Don't know. In general, they are. For instance Denmark and Germany. Also Spain, although slower...
Djokovic's problem for RG would not be entering the country, then the rules are the same for all, which as of now are the need of a vaccination passport to enter sporting venues among others.

So much can happen so fast. I believe he'll be screwed for most of the first half of the year, but I think he'll be able to play most of the second half. Maybe it's just wishful thinking since I really wanna be over with the pandemic... that's my prediction (I've been wrong before).
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Lifting Covid restrictions on foreign citizens is going to be one of the last things to go.
 
Mustard said:
Lifting Covid restrictions on foreign citizens is going to be one of the last things to go.
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You mean as an entry requirement? Probably. In the Schengen Area (mostly EU+) he should be able to move around with a negative pcr test, I think. I'm not sure, 'cause I'm vaccinated, so I don't really care what the requirements are for those who are not.
He'd have it more complicated to go to the US true... I had forgotten that after W, there are some masters1000 there ;-)
 
intrepidish said:
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Il consiste en la présentation de :

  • Un certificat de vaccination attestant d’un schéma vaccinal complet,
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Rafa.the.Magnificent said:
Well, of course Nadal’s chances improve if Djokovic is absent but I’ll say this, I did not and do not view Rafa’s win at AO to be “asterisked,” but if he wins future majors in which Djokovic isn’t there, of course people will make the asterisk claim. To hell with that! I want Rafa to win (or lose) with Djokovic playing. And may the best player win. I can’t think of anything more horrible than swirling questions about this living on in the future. So I hope mandates go away and/or if they don’t, Djokovic will get vaccinated and participate at all slams. He did say he wasn’t shutting the door, I believe.
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Who cares if the bitter fans of his rivals want to put asterisks on his future titles? Not I, and not Nadal I can assure you...

From what I can tell, since 2018, Novak barely got by Nadal at Wimbledon even with the advantage of having a p*ss weak qf opponent compared to Nadal's war with Delpo and closed roof in perfect weather conditions... he also barely got by Nadal on one leg at RG last year. His only dominant win was at the AO.

So there is absolutely no guarantee that Novak would have won any of them or stopped Nadal from winning them... at 35 years old who knows which part of his game will decline... who knows which youngsters will step up and beat him anyway? FAA and Alcaraz are looking to be on the rise, Med already starting to have his number on HCs... Tsits twice has pushed him to 5 sets at RG...

If Rafa was deported from Australia in 2017 and Fed still won who would've believed that he'd have edged out Nadal in a 5 set final anyway? Not many...

Djokovic is making a choice (a stupid one but it's his choice to make regardless) and you've got to be in it to win it. You can't blame countries for trying to protect their people and you certainly can't blame the other players who have done the right thing and got vaccinated. Any future title wins for any player is legit.
 
Nadal's chances obviously rise if Djoker is absent as he's the best player in the world at the moment.

  • RG Nadal is obviously the favourite either way
  • Considering the current lack of grass talent, Nadal is one of the favourites there and firms even more if Djokovic is missing
  • Nadal has always been strong at the US Open and again, firms if Djokovic is missing

That being said, there's a reason the calendar slam hasn't been achieved since 69, it is very hard to do.
 
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