Chances of Nadal Calendar slam if Djokovic doesn't take part in any of them?

Chances for Rafa Calendar slam in Djokovic absence

  • Chances improve considerably

    Votes: 39 38.6%

  • Chances are a bit better

    Votes: 23 22.8%

  • Leave it, it's nil regardless!

    Votes: 39 38.6%
  • Total voters
    101
Backspin1183 said:
Oh yes, not facing Novak in a Wimbledon semi final or final would help a lot. By then the grass isn't very slick and return of serve gets easier. He'd be a favourite against anyone else by then.

Nadal's biggest problem on grass since his resurgence in 2017 has been his return of serve. Everything else is there for him to win another trophy. But standing 6-7 feet behind the baseline to return serves on grass just has not worked for him.

When you watch his old Wimbledon video clips on YouTube you can see he stood much closer to the baseline which had helped him to return serves a lot more effectively, and won him two trophies. He just doesn't do that anymore. Maybe he's just not confident anymore.

He won this AO by standing close to the baseline to return serves. If he can do it at Wimbledon too, his chances to win another Wimby would go up for me. If he sticks to return from the front row of spectators, he can fall to any big hitter in good form.
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I like the adjustments I saw at the AO.

To be honest, I think the Nadal camp went in to the AO with no expectations, but rather a trial for some new tactics to see how they hold up...

His serve speeds are about 10k's faster on average for both 1st and 2nd serves. He stood closer to the baseline to return and he is trying to shorten points even more.

His serve still needs work, but at least they've identified it as a major flaw in his game at his age and have convinced him to go for more power.

His return position definitely helped him take ascendency in matches. In fact, it was when he reverted to standing far behind the baseline to receive that he got himself in trouble... happened in Khachanov, Shapo and Berry matches... Won the first two sets then started returning from the commentator's box...

His touch still looks pretty good at the net.

If he can stay healthy then Wimbledon isn't out of the question even if Novak plays.
 
As crazy as it may seem, he has a chance.

RG - he's won it 13 times before and he's the slam dunk fav with or without Nole
WI - sh*tty grass field means he's the fav without Novak and second fav with Novak
US - won two of the last three times he's played

If there's no Djokovic all year, USO will be his hardest because there's the most competitors there with Zverev, Medvedev and Thiem (hopefully he comes back) to challenge him like Med/Zed challenged Nole last year. He's hands down still the best clay courter in the world and somehow, he's the second best grass courter in the world, whereas on hard courts, anyone in the top 6/7 can be dangerous
 
The_Order said:
Who cares if the bitter fans of his rivals want to put asterisks on his future titles? Not I, and not Nadal I can assure you...

From what I can tell, since 2018, Novak barely got by Nadal at Wimbledon even with the advantage of having a p*ss weak qf opponent compared to Nadal's war with Delpo and closed roof in perfect weather conditions... he also barely got by Nadal on one leg at RG last year. His only dominant win was at the AO.

So there is absolutely no guarantee that Novak would have won any of them or stopped Nadal from winning them... at 35 years old who knows which part of his game will decline... who knows which youngsters will step up and beat him anyway? FAA and Alcaraz are looking to be on the rise, Med already starting to have his number on HCs... Tsits twice has pushed him to 5 sets at RG...

If Rafa was deported from Australia in 2017 and Fed still won who would've believed that he'd have edged out Nadal in a 5 set final anyway? Not many...

Djokovic is making a choice (a stupid one but it's his choice to make regardless) and you've got to be in it to win it. You can't blame countries for trying to protect their people and you certainly can't blame the other players who have done the right thing and got vaccinated. Any future title wins for any player is legit.
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I agree but I subscribe no player should have their wins asterisked.

I don't agree with people who say Federer's RG win is asterisked since he didn't play Nadal (especialy when Nadal was in the actual draw and lost anyway).
I don't agree with people who say Djokovic's RG win is asterisked since Nadal didn't play, especialy as Nadal was barely any threat on anything, even clay, in either 2015 or 2016 to begin with.
I don't agree with people who say Thiem's US Open win is asterisked due to the Djokovic DQ. That was all Djokovic's stupidity, and Djokovic has never been any sort of a lock at the US Open to begin with as his atrocious US Open finals record proves emphatically.

So yes I 100% agree it is wrong to asterisk Nadal's Australian Open win, but I apply that to everyones win. It is ridiculous when the 60s and 70s had a bunch of greats pad their numbers with illegitimate Australian Open wins in Tier 3 tournament fields with on average 3 of the top 20 in attendance (most of all Margaret Court, who won half of her 24 slams there), people are discreding any players slam win in this day and age. Not there might be more impressive wins than others, with more impressive draws they went through, but any slam win in this day in age is fully legit.

Some other examples, Vilas won 2 of his 4 slams in Australia on grass with almost nobody there, and he isn't anything close to capable of winning a slam in a real grass slam, as his Wimbledon record proves. 1 of his remaining 2 was with not only Borg who he barely gets games off of, but nearly all the top 10 missing, at Roland Garros. Yet he is fully credited as a 4 slam winner and 4 slam calibre player here. Steffi Graf won half of her slams after her biggest rival who was by far better than her the previous 3 years, and 4 years younger, STABBED. She is credited as the female GOAT over Serena who has more slams, and the other greats, by many here. So yes given examples like Vilas, Court, Graf, anyone discrediting anyones slam today is comical. Be it a slam won by Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, or Thiem. There are more people who discredit Thiem's only slam title and some of the slams won by Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, than discredit Chris O Neil's Australian Open win on this sub. It is just bizarre. Granted a lot of that is nobody cares about O Neil, but you get the point.
 
Entername said:
As crazy as it may seem, he has a chance.

RG - he's won it 13 times before and he's the slam dunk fav with or without Nole
WI - sh*tty grass field means he's the fav without Novak and second fav with Novak
US - won two of the last three times he's played

If there's no Djokovic all year, USO will be his hardest because there's the most competitors there with Zverev, Medvedev and Thiem (hopefully he comes back) to challenge him like Med/Zed challenged Nole last year. He's hands down still the best clay courter in the world and somehow, he's the second best grass courter in the world, whereas on hard courts, anyone in the top 6/7 can be dangerous
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For me the problem is draw at the US. In a one of game I take him over any of those in a BO5 but I can’t see if that sort of performance is required from QF, SF and final.

He needs some of Zverev, Thiem, Medvedev etc to land on the same side. Should that happen he’s favourite.
 
Why people bring up Zverev as a danger at slams? Nadal is still a top10, and slams are still Bo5
Thiem is sadly MIA

Watch out for FAA and Alcaraz. They'll do damage this year. Especially FAA, and he could go deep in W (I actually think he can have a shot at the title!)
Medvedev has already proven he's consistently a top player.
 
Entername said:
As crazy as it may seem, he has a chance.

RG - he's won it 13 times before and he's the slam dunk fav with or without Nole
WI - sh*tty grass field means he's the fav without Novak and second fav with Novak
US - won two of the last three times he's played

If there's no Djokovic all year, USO will be his hardest because there's the most competitors there with Zverev, Medvedev and Thiem (hopefully he comes back) to challenge him like Med/Zed challenged Nole last year. He's hands down still the best clay courter in the world and somehow, he's the second best grass courter in the world, whereas on hard courts, anyone in the top 6/7 can be dangerous
Click to expand...

I would just love if 36 year old Nadal with 60% of his old speed won the Grand Slam. Just for the insanity of it. As if anymore emphatic evidence of the continuing godawful era of tennis. and uselessness of Generation Next 1, Generation Next 2, Generation Lost, Generation Useless, etc....is needed. :-D :-D
 
Is RG truly as much of an advantage to Nadal now as it once was?
That said I never imagined Nadal winning sets 3,4,5 at AO either… I thought he’d have to basically win 1,2,3. Dude has more than I thought in the tank.

regardless playing guys that are 6’6 and able to get to everything is going to create some very long points. Let’s hope his body holds.
 
The_Order said:
Who cares if the bitter fans of his rivals want to put asterisks on his future titles? Not I, and not Nadal I can assure you...

From what I can tell, since 2018, Novak barely got by Nadal at Wimbledon even with the advantage of having a p*ss weak qf opponent compared to Nadal's war with Delpo and closed roof in perfect weather conditions... he also barely got by Nadal on one leg at RG last year. His only dominant win was at the AO.

So there is absolutely no guarantee that Novak would have won any of them or stopped Nadal from winning them... at 35 years old who knows which part of his game will decline... who knows which youngsters will step up and beat him anyway? FAA and Alcaraz are looking to be on the rise, Med already starting to have his number on HCs... Tsits twice has pushed him to 5 sets at RG...

If Rafa was deported from Australia in 2017 and Fed still won who would've believed that he'd have edged out Nadal in a 5 set final anyway? Not many...

Djokovic is making a choice (a stupid one but it's his choice to make regardless) and you've got to be in it to win it. You can't blame countries for trying to protect their people and you certainly can't blame the other players who have done the right thing and got vaccinated. Any future title wins for any player is legit.
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Good and fair points all(y)
 
D.Nalby12 said:
Loser? Tell me a single season when Nadal even came close to achieving CYGS? He has never made final of all four Slam events in a year. He has got just one 3 Slam season.
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Novak was never as close to achieving CYGS in his career as he was last year at age 34, so it's not impossible for Rafa to have his best bid at age 35/36...

If Rafa picks up RG, he'd join Novak as the only players in the past 30 years to win the first half of the CYGS
 
martinezownsclay said:
I would just love if 36 year old Nadal with 60% of his old speed won the Grand Slam. Just for the insanity of it. As if anymore emphatic evidence of the continuing godawful era of tennis. and uselessness of Generation Next 1, Generation Next 2, Generation Lost, Generation Useless, etc....is needed. :-D :-D
Click to expand...
Tbh if someone wins CYGS I can't event say weak era or weak field anymore because it takes a herculean effort to win all four in the same year. There's a reason it hasn't been done in men's tennis since the year of the moon landing and it hasn't been done in tennis at all since 1988
 
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martinezownsclay said:
Why are people talking up Nadal's chances at Wimbledon so much? I know the grass field is beyond rubbish but he hasn't done crapola there since 2011 now. OK I know there are 2 years he only lost to Federer/Djokovic, but look at who he beat those years too, literally the only quality win even by a small scale in 10 years is Del Potro. No I am not thinking 34 year old semi retired Tsonga. And the long list of obscure nobodies he has lost to at Wimbledon since 2011. His knees have been shot for awhile, and that is one big reason he has been virtually done on grass forever now. Although 2018 was a good shot at the title, but he blew it, and now that is it. 2019 he only reached an easy loss to grandpa Federer due to a great draw (clay courter Sousa and past prime Querrey in R16/quarters respectively).
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His 2018-2019 levels would be enough to get the job done at Wimb against anyone except Fedovic.
 
Entername said:
Tbh if someone wins CYGS I can't event say weak era or weak field anymore because it takes a herculean effort to win all four in the same year. There's a reason it hasn't been done in men's tennis since the year of the moon landing and it hasn't been done in tennis at all since 1988
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Oh, but I can. Especially considering the fact that Djokovic was never this close even in his 20's when he was better.
 
mike danny said:
His 2018-2019 levels would be enough to get the job done at Wimb against anyone except Fedovic.
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I am not sure even then. Berrettini and Shapapalov were both very competitive with him in Australia and on grass their chances should be far better since that is Nadal's worst surface hands down at this point of his career, and both of their best surfaces also. FAA should have a good chance too. So in theory both should win on grass right now, but both could badly fold mentally too.
 
Again, let Rafa win RG first. People here always talk like he would win anything given his AO run. Right now I don't think he is a lock for RG, too many factors. And while it's not like Djoko won't be able to play, he will.
 
martinezownsclay said:
I am not sure even then. Berrettini and Shapapalov were both very competitive with him in Australia and on grass their chances should be far better since that is Nadal's worst surface hands down at this point of his career, and both of their best surfaces also. FAA should have a good chance too. So in theory both should win on grass right now, but both could badly fold mentally too.
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They were competitive, but he wasn't playing great. Against Shapovalov, he was just surviving. Overall, he didn't have much match play, and barely any training before the tournament. I foresee a physically fitter Nadal as the season goes on. Berrettini won't fold, as he's been very consistent, losing only to Nadal and Djokovic at slams.
I agree about FAA, he can do some serious damage if he keeps playing like he is; he might even improve until then.
 
If Djokovic doesn't play Wimbledon then Nadal's the favorite. RG is 50/50 between the two of them as of now. USO is too difficult. Not just Medvedev, but probably Zverev, Tsitsipas, etc..
 
Fabresque said:
If Djokovic doesn't play Wimbledon then Nadal's the favorite. RG is 50/50 between the two of them as of now. USO is too difficult. Not just Medvedev, but probably Zverev, Tsitsipas, etc..
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No way 50/50 with djokovic mentally in doldrums and Nadal coming off a slam win
 
martinezownsclay said:
Why are people talking up Nadal's chances at Wimbledon so much? I know the grass field is beyond rubbish but he hasn't done crapola there since 2011 now. OK I know there are 2 years he only lost to Federer/Djokovic, but look at who he beat those years too, literally the only quality win even by a small scale in 10 years is Del Potro. No I am not thinking 34 year old semi retired Tsonga. And the long list of obscure nobodies he has lost to at Wimbledon since 2011. His knees have been shot for awhile, and that is one big reason he has been virtually done on grass forever now. Although 2018 was a good shot at the title, but he blew it, and now that is it. 2019 he only reached an easy loss to grandpa Federer due to a great draw (clay courter Sousa and past prime Querrey in R16/quarters respectively).
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He was just a good game away from Wimbledon final against Anderson and if that isn't enough proof of him being atleast a factor then Don't know what is
 
Mustard said:
Not as much as it once was, but still an advantage.


Even 2017.
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Well, yeah, I do think his 2017 level was better than what he'd shown in 2012-2016, but he did have that loss against Muller.

I guess 2017 could win 2019 with no Fedovic with 2018 being a question mark against Delpo.
 
martinezownsclay said:
I am not sure even then. Berrettini and Shapapalov were both very competitive with him in Australia and on grass their chances should be far better since that is Nadal's worst surface hands down at this point of his career, and both of their best surfaces also. FAA should have a good chance too. So in theory both should win on grass right now, but both could badly fold mentally too.
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Well, I said 2018-2019, I have no idea what kind of level Nadal will bring on grass this year.

But the Berrettini match was not close.
 
mike danny said:
Well, I said 2018-2019, I have no idea what kind of level Nadal will bring on grass this year.

But the Berrettini match was not close.
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Maybe he proves me wrong but I just can't see Matteo beating Djokodal at a slam unless one of them is playing beyond sh*tty. Sure he has dangerous weapons (big first serve and fearhand) but he also has big holes in his game that Djokodal can exploit over the course of a BO5 match like his backhand, ROS, and lateral movement.
 
mike danny said:
Oh, but I can. Especially considering the fact that Djokovic was never this close even in his 20's when he was better.
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I get where you're coming from but winning the CYGS is hard asf no matter how the rest of the field looks like

There's a reason it hasn't been done in over 50 years since the introduction of coloured-TV
 
Rafa.the.Magnificent said:
Well, of course Nadal’s chances improve if Djokovic is absent but I’ll say this, I did not and do not view Rafa’s win at AO to be “asterisked,” but if he wins future majors in which Djokovic isn’t there, of course people will make the asterisk claim. To hell with that! I want Rafa to win (or lose) with Djokovic playing. And may the best player win. I can’t think of anything more horrible than swirling questions about this living on in the future. So I hope mandates go away and/or if they don’t, Djokovic will get vaccinated and participate at all slams. He did say he wasn’t shutting the door, I believe.
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I am extremely surprised if Novak plays any Grand Slams in 2022
 
mike danny said:
Well, I said 2018-2019, I have no idea what kind of level Nadal will bring on grass this year.

But the Berrettini match was not close.
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Yes Berr has a weird habbit to take away a set to give the impression that he made it close to those who only read scorecards. I can see Berr winning against Nadal with that BH. The moderately good part of his BH is the slice but slice against Nadal is a recipe for disaster. I think Berr was created to be the worst match up ever to Nadal. Berr can only hope Nadal falls to the level of 2021 Fed or 2015 Nadal
 
Entername said:
Maybe he proves me wrong but I just can't see Matteo beating Djokodal at a slam unless one of them is playing beyond sh*tty. Sure he has dangerous weapons (big first serve and fearhand) but he also has big holes in his game that Djokodal can exploit over the course of a BO5 match like his backhand, ROS, and lateral movement.
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Berr is just a walkover like Ferrer used to be. Can't believe some people hype him up.
 
Nadal_King said:
No way 50/50 with djokovic mentally in doldrums and Nadal coming off a slam win
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You’re telling me you saw him get DQ’d at the US Open and lose in straights at RG 2020, and follow that up with 3 slam wins in 2021, and still believe he’s not a 50/50 shot? The guy thrives when hit with adversity
 
Fabresque said:
You’re telling me you saw him get DQ’d at the US Open and lose in straights at RG 2020, and follow that up with 3 slam wins in 2021, and still believe he’s not a 50/50 shot? The guy thrives when hit with adversity
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At rg no way 50/50 and if rafa wins rg then at Wimbledon also it won't be 50-50 since djokovic will be clear favourite
 
Entername said:
I get where you're coming from but winning the CYGS is hard asf no matter how the rest of the field looks like

There's a reason it hasn't been done in over 50 years since the introduction of coloured-TV
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Exactly. Having to win four slams in a row in a particular order has always struck me as a bit of a made up record. The only person each year who can possibly achieve it is the winner of the AO.
Who cares in what order or time of year a slam is won?! I can’t see it proves anything much.
 
Zero for me regardless, Nadal is not so much ahead of the field that he'd just clean up 4 slams in a row. Plus he's often struggling with injuries
 
Midaso240 said:
Zero for me regardless, Nadal is not so much ahead of the field that he'd just clean up 4 slams in a row. Plus he's often struggling with injuries
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He is at RG, and there seems to be not much competition on grass (although FAA might step up). He already has the first. So it seems possible that he enters the USO with 3/4 (not likely, but doable).
 
mike danny said:
Berr is just a walkover like Ferrer used to be. Can't believe some people hype him up.
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Ferrer has actually beaten Rafa twice at HC slams though (more wins than even Federer has at HC slams vs Rafa) ;)

But yeah Matteo kinda looks like a gatekeeper right now but he has more potential than Ferrer though as the Italian does have some very dangerous weapons
 
MadariKatu said:
At RG, his chances are more or less the same. At W, they improve considerably. At USO, there are bigger dangers than Novak. Anyway, that's a massive if, given than some countries are already lifting restrictions and it's still only february.
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Who exactly?

Anyway, some of you Nadal fans are getting way too ahead of yourselves. Let him win the French before any talk of a Calendar Slam commences.
 
MadariKatu said:
They were competitive, but he wasn't playing great. Against Shapovalov, he was just surviving. Overall, he didn't have much match play, and barely any training before the tournament. I foresee a physically fitter Nadal as the season goes on. Berrettini won't fold, as he's been very consistent, losing only to Nadal and Djokovic at slams.
I agree about FAA, he can do some serious damage if he keeps playing like he is; he might even improve until then.
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Berretinni has a massive hole in his game that Nadal will exploit and Shapo is a self imploding mental midget. I think FAA has the game to beat Nadal and will make huge strides this year. He should have beat Medvedev and he has no real holes in his game.
 
Ray Mercer said:
Berretinni has a massive hole in his game that Nadal will exploit and Shapo is a self imploding mental midget. I think FAA has the game to beat Nadal and will make huge strides this year. He should have beat Medvedev and he has no real holes in his game.
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I agree. About Berrettini, I meant he won't fold mentally, he'll be overplayed.
 
Nadal_King said:
I know this is a stretch but Nadal chances improve a bit if Djokovic doesn't feature especially at Wimbledon itcan be a factor rest calendar slam is surely a thing which is immensely tough and isn't dependant on one player's participation but nadal is undefeated against the current field at Rg excluding Djokovic and Djokovic is the biggest favourite for Wimbledon
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Djokovic doesn't need to be absent for Rafa to win anything. Rafa's main opponent is injury; if he manages to stay fit, no one can stand in his way. He's played injured regularly since 2012.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494350753158340610
 
Ray Mercer said:
Berretinni has a massive hole in his game that Nadal will exploit and Shapo is a self imploding mental midget. I think FAA has the game to beat Nadal and will make huge strides this year. He should have beat Medvedev and he has no real holes in his game.
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FAA is error prone. When he is hitting his spots he is imressive but he doesn't often do that.
 
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