Chances that Nadal is outside the top 4 at the AO.

What are the chances Nadal does not have his own quarter at the AO?


  • Total voters
    22

edmondsm

Legend
Sorry I'm not great at math. I was looking at the rankings breakdowns and it looks like Nadal could be outside the top 4 at the AO, if Murray, Wawrinka, and/or Nishikori have strong finishes to the year.

I can't remember how early they decide the seeding either so that might affect it as well.

Nadal stands to lose at least 1,360 points for sitting out the remainder of the year. He also has 250 points to defend in early Jan.

It looks like if Wawrinka and Murray have very strong finishes they could overtake Nadal in the rankings. Might be a long shot, but possible.
 
Last edited:

Bryan Swartz

Hall of Fame
The poll needs a 'small chance' option.

On points just from this year(which is all the players will have going into next year), Wawrinka is more than 2k behind. So he could win Paris and the WTF and overtake Nadal. It's virtually impossible for anyone else to do so.

Far more likely is Nadal remains third, and it's a very open question who will have the fourth spot. Wawrinka has the best chance, but not if he doesn't start playing a little more like the guy who won the AO last time :).
 
this is why nadal never skips the clay season......a haul of 4/5000 points keeps him the top4 all year and then he can be selectively injured when it suits him.
 

kOaMaster

Hall of Fame
veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery slim. wawrinka and murray would need to win 2025 / 2535 points.
points to distribute until then:
paris 1000/600
wtf 1500/1000
DC (only wawrinka) 250
pre-AO-tournaments: max. 250 each

while not entirely impossible highly unlikely. date of ranking to determine the seeding is 7 days before the tournament starts afaik?
 
Last edited:

Chico

Banned
I bet if he is outside top 4, he will be in the Novak's quarter on AO. Just like Murray was on every single tournament since he dropped from top 4. :mad:
 

PMChambers

Hall of Fame
I thought for medical treatment not caused through tennis you could suspend you're ranking until you return. Though I can't really be bothered in checking the requirements.

Being outside the Top 4 won't effect him anyway as when he's on song it's only Fed & Nole who threaten him and maybe Murray if the planets align. There's the same chance of him playing both Fed and Nole consecutively if he's 1 to 4th. Being 5-8 could be a benefit as he could play Nole or Fed in a QF and then have an easier SF before potentially meeting the remaining big 3 in final, though there's also slim chance if Murray is 3 or 4th to play Nole, Fed & Murray consecutively but unlikely. Nadal is generally zoned in by 2nd week so playing Fed or Nole in the QF, SF or Fin will make little difference.
 

Pouet156

Rookie
I thought for medical treatment not caused through tennis you could suspend you're ranking until you return. Though I can't really be bothered in checking the requirements.

Being outside the Top 4 won't effect him anyway as when he's on song it's only Fed & Nole who threaten him and maybe Murray if the planets align. There's the same chance of him playing both Fed and Nole consecutively if he's 1 to 4th. Being 5-8 could be a benefit as he could play Nole or Fed in a QF and then have an easier SF before potentially meeting the remaining big 3 in final, though there's also slim chance if Murray is 3 or 4th to play Nole, Fed & Murray consecutively but unlikely. Nadal is generally zoned in by 2nd week so playing Fed or Nole in the QF, SF or Fin will make little difference.
You need to be out for over 6 months to protect your ranking, and it will be the average ranking (not sure over which period) that will be kept
 
No chance. On the ATP race, their points are like:

3. Nadal 6835
4. Wawrinka 4815
5. Murray 4305

The race only includes points from this year, so no points will be dropped from that. We have 2500pts available this year, and 1-2 250s next year before AO. If Murray wins EVERYTHING and Wawa is RUP on everything, that'd just barely make it. Nothing less, not even close!
 
I thought for medical treatment not caused through tennis you could suspend you're ranking until you return. Though I can't really be bothered in checking the requirements.

Being outside the Top 4 won't effect him anyway as when he's on song it's only Fed & Nole who threaten him and maybe Murray if the planets align. There's the same chance of him playing both Fed and Nole consecutively if he's 1 to 4th. Being 5-8 could be a benefit as he could play Nole or Fed in a QF and then have an easier SF before potentially meeting the remaining big 3 in final, though there's also slim chance if Murray is 3 or 4th to play Nole, Fed & Murray consecutively but unlikely. Nadal is generally zoned in by 2nd week so playing Fed or Nole in the QF, SF or Fin will make little difference.
so he hasnt been on song since sept 2013......can you explain why?
 

octobrina10

Talk Tennis Guru
...
I can't remember how early they decide the seeding...
The ATP Rulebook:
¤¤ 7.14 Seeds Definition
Seeds are players who are given preferential positions in the draw based on the Emirates ATP Rankings. The selection and arrangement of seeds shall be based upon the most recent Emirates ATP Rankings list (the protected ranking is not considered). ¤¤
 

merwy

G.O.A.T.
No chance at all. I'm not even sure if it's possible if Murray and Wawrinka make the finals of every tournament until the AO.

Protip: Both of them won't make the final of any of those tournaments.
 

edmondsm

Legend
The poll needs a 'small chance' option.

On points just from this year(which is all the players will have going into next year), Wawrinka is more than 2k behind. So he could win Paris and the WTF and overtake Nadal. It's virtually impossible for anyone else to do so.

Far more likely is Nadal remains third, and it's a very open question who will have the fourth spot. Wawrinka has the best chance, but not if he doesn't start playing a little more like the guy who won the AO last time :).
Murray has ZERO points to defend in Paris and WTF. So if he had a huge end to the year he could easily overtake Nadal. Actually seems more likely for that to happen since Murray might be getting back some confidence after Valencia.
 

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Sorry I'm not great at math. I was looking at the rankings breakdowns and it looks like Nadal could be outside the top 4 at the AO, if Murray, Wawrinka, and/or Nishikori have strong finishes to the year.

I can't remember how early they decide the seeding either so that might affect it as well.

Nadal stands to lose at least 1,360 points for sitting out the remainder of the year. [SIZE="3[COLOR="Red"]"]These points are irrelevant now.[/COLOR][/SIZE] He also has 250 points to defend in early Jan.

It looks like if Wawrinka and Murray have very strong finishes they could overtake Nadal in the rankings. Might be a long shot, but possible.
The race points are what matter now. No one even bothers to look at the 52 weeks ranking points at this time in the season.
 

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Murray has ZERO points to defend in Paris and WTF. So if he had a huge end to the year he could easily overtake Nadal. Actually seems more likely for that to happen since Murray might be getting back some confidence after Valencia.
Points to defend doesn't come into it anymore, just use the Race points.

Even if Murray wins Paris and wins the WTF with the maximum 1500 points he cannot overtake Nadal. Stan could if he gets more than 2030 points from Paris and the WTF. So Stan will have to win Paris and the WTF without losing a match.
 
Last edited:

Mr.Snrub

Banned
I bet if he is outside top 4, he will be in the Novak's quarter on AO. Just like Murray was on every single tournament since he dropped from top 4. :mad:
2012 US Open: Federer gets Murray, Djokovic gets Ferrer
2013 Australian Open: Federer gets Murray, Djokovic gets Ferrer
2013 Wimbledon: Federer and Nadal same quarter, Federer/Nadal/Murray same half
2013 US Open: Federer and Nadal same quarter
2014 Australian Open: Nadal/Murray/Federer same half

Who is Djokovic paying to get these dream draws at slams?
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
The race points are what matter now. No one even bothers to look at the 52 weeks ranking points at this time in the season.
Points to defend doesn't come into it anymore, just use the Race points.

Even if Murray wins Paris and wins the WTF with the maximum 1500 points he cannot overtake Nadal. Stan could if he gets more than 2030 points from Paris and the WTF. So Stan will have to win Paris and the WTF without losing a match.
OP, clayqueen actually has a point! Well done clayqueen! Have you been brushing up on your Llendl knowledge as well?
Here's what you need to look at:
http://live-tennis.eu/race
I.e. Rafa will most def. be top-4 by the AO.

2012 US Open: Federer gets Murray, Djokovic gets Ferrer
2013 Australian Open: Federer gets Murray, Djokovic gets Ferrer
2013 Wimbledon: Federer and Nadal same quarter, Federer/Nadal/Murray same half
2013 US Open: Federer and Nadal same quarter
2014 Australian Open: Nadal/Murray/Federer same half

Who is Djokovic paying to get these dream draws at slams?
Well done, enough with this constant Djoko has the hardest draw every single time
 
Last edited:

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
Rafa is confirmed as YE #3 with Stan losing to Anderson in Paris as he would have had to win all his matches until YE to pass Rafa.
 

vive le beau jeu !

Talk Tennis Guru
as much as i would like to see it happen, it seems unfortunately unlikely...

... unless he is somehow stripped of some results until then. ;)
 

edmondsm

Legend
I'm curious, when do they set the seeding for the AO. Because Rafa does have 250 to defend in Doha by Jan 5th. Stan could also get points from DC correct?
 

clayqueen

Talk Tennis Guru
I'm curious, when do they set the seeding for the AO. Because Rafa does have 250 to defend in Doha by Jan 5th. Stan could also get points from DC correct?
Stan cannot overtake Rafa in the rankings before Australia. At the moment, Rafa leads Stan by 1940 points. If Stan wins the WTF, he'll get 1300 points, that still leaves 640 points to make up even if Switzerland wins the DC. They've both got 250 points coming off on 5th Jan if they don't defend Doha (Rafa) and Chennai (Stan). That won't affect the seedings in Australia anyway.
 
Last edited:
Top