Cilic vs Del Potro - IW betting odds

I was checking the betting odds this morning and found that Del Potro has much better odds of winning IW than does Cilic. In fact, Cilic is around 9/1, and Delpo is around 9/2 so he has roughly a twice as good chance of winning IW than does Cilic. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but does anyone else find that a bit odd?
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
1) Del Potro is in great form (owed 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago)
2) Del Potro is far better against top players and has almost 2x as many wins against the top 10 despite losing a couple of years
3) Del Potro is 10-2 against Cilic
4) Del Potro has won the last 7 matches against Cilic 6 of which in straight sets
5) Del Potro has a legit chance against Federer in the final if they meet, Cilic will most likely lose no matter what he brings. He also played great against an in-form Fed in 2017.
 
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1) Del Potro is in great form (owed 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago)
2) Del Potro is far better against top players and has almost 2x as many wins against the top 10 despite losing a couple of years
3) Del Potro is 10-2 against Cilic
4) Del Potro has won the last 7 matches against Cilic 6 of which in straight sets
5) Del Potro has a legit chance against Federer in the final if they meet, Cilic will most likely lose no matter what he brings
Fair enough. I didn't know the stat about their H2H which clearly comes into play since they're somewhat likely to meet in the QF. Another thing I think is contributing to the disparity in the odds is that Delpo has a much easier path to the QF than Cilic does. Delpo plays Ferrer then Mayer/Daniel. Cilic is likely going to play Monfils in R16. On the other hand, Cilic is the #3 player in the world and has made 2 of the last 3 major finals.
 

Harry_Wild

G.O.A.T.
Del Potro is my guy and is in great form! He has not hit with max power ground strokes yet! When he is in perfect hitting rhythm, it is fun to watch!
 

merwy

G.O.A.T.
1) Del Potro is in great form (owed 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago)
2) Del Potro is far better against top players and has almost 2x as many wins against the top 10 despite losing a couple of years
3) Del Potro is 10-2 against Cilic
4) Del Potro has won the last 7 matches against Cilic 6 of which in straight sets
5) Del Potro has a legit chance against Federer in the final if they meet, Cilic will most likely lose no matter what he brings. He also played great against an in-form Fed in 2017.
1) Cilic made the AO final, does that not constitute good form?
2) Fair enough
3) and 4) are basically the same point
5) You know that’s not true. Cilic just took Fed to 5 sets in a GS final so it’s ridiculous to suggest that he has no chance of beating him. Delpo beat Fed at the USO but Fed himself said he wasn’t fit at all there. And we all know what happened at USO 2014. If there’s anyone who can get dangerously hot and beat anyone it’s Cilic. Delpo is generally more consistent.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
1) Cilic made the AO final, does that not constitute good form?
Easy draw and an injured Nadal who hasn't played since. Del Potro beat 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago.

Besides, other than an injured Nadal Cilic hasn't beaten any top 10 player since Rome in 2017. Since the same tournament Del Potro has 8 wins against the top 10 including a straight set win against Cilic himself and Thiem/Zverev/Anderson (all in straight sets) a week ago.

3) and 4) are basically the same point
If the h2h was 10-2 but Cilic won the last 2 meetings it would've been different.

5) You know that’s not true. Cilic just took Fed to 5 sets in a GS final so it’s ridiculous to suggest that he has no chance of beating him. Delpo beat Fed at the USO but Fed himself said he wasn’t fit at all there. And we all know what happened at USO 2014. If there’s anyone who can get dangerously hot and beat anyone it’s Cilic. Delpo is generally more consistent.
So you're giving Cilic more of a chance than Del Potro based on the fact that Cilic lost against Federer in a Slam while Del Potro beat him? Besides, Federer wasn't stellar in that 2018 AO final either.

Anyway, life will verify the odds. If nothing unexpected happens and Del Potro plays Cilic we will see Del Potro go through. Cilic hates playing against him.
 
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ruerooo

Legend
I was checking the betting odds this morning and found that Del Potro has much better odds of winning IW than does Cilic. In fact, Cilic is around 9/1, and Delpo is around 9/2 so he has roughly a twice as good chance of winning IW than does Cilic. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but does anyone else find that a bit odd?
I'm not sure ... they only each have one Slam
 
Easy draw and an injured Nadal who hasn't played since. Del Potro beat 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago.

Besides, other than an injured Nadal Cilic hasn't beaten any top 10 player since Rome in 2017. Since the same tournament Del Potro has 8 wins against the top 10 including a straight set win against Cilic himself and Thiem/Zverev/Anderson (all in straight sets) a week ago.
You make it sound like Del Potro has far and away been the better player recently. Interestingly enough though, Cilic is #3 in the world, and Del Potro is #8. That may not seem like a huge difference, but consider this: the difference in ranking points between #3 Cilic and #8 Del Potro is greater than the difference between #8 Del Potro and #27 Gilles Muller.
 
Besides, other than an injured Nadal Cilic hasn't beaten any top 10 player since Rome in 2017. Since the same tournament Del Potro has 8 wins against the top 10 including a straight set win against Cilic himself and Thiem/Zverev/Anderson (all in straight sets) a week ago.
TBH, Cilic was in top 8 entire 2017 and on the bottom half of top 8 seeding most of the time.

But to answer why maybe the odds are lower:
Anyway, Cilic is not in a good form, played only once and in clay so that's that.
And dude had bad records vs Monf and Delpo and historically proven always end up short where he hasn't play many matchups.
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
1) Del Potro is in great form (owed 3 top 10 players in Acapulco just a week ago)
2) Del Potro is far better against top players and has almost 2x as many wins against the top 10 despite losing a couple of years
3) Del Potro is 10-2 against Cilic
4) Del Potro has won the last 7 matches against Cilic 6 of which in straight sets
5) Del Potro has a legit chance against Federer in the final if they meet, Cilic will most likely lose no matter what he brings. He also played great against an in-form Fed in 2017.
This.

As a Fed fan, Delpo is the only guy in the draw that I'm worried about.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
As a Fed fan, Delpo is the only guy in the draw that I'm worried about.
One bright spot (if this match happens) is that the courts are so agonizingly slow, Del Po's FH won't be as big of a weapon. It's very hard to hit winners on this HC, which looks slower than clay. I'd like to see the court speed index. Annacone was saying this year's IW is "about a 25." I don't know if he was joking, he sounded serious. In the past it was 30:
 

Firstservingman

Talk Tennis Guru
One bright spot (if this match happens) is that the courts are so agonizingly slow, Del Po's FH won't be as big of a weapon. It's very hard to hit winners on this HC, which looks slower than clay. I'd like to see the court speed index. Annacone was saying this year's IW is "about a 25." I don't know if he was joking, he sounded serious. In the past it was 30:
So it's roughly Rome. A sea-level clay court tournament.

Tennis is dying.
 

Wilhelm

Hall of Fame
One bright spot (if this match happens) is that the courts are so agonizingly slow, Del Po's FH won't be as big of a weapon. It's very hard to hit winners on this HC, which looks slower than clay. I'd like to see the court speed index. Annacone was saying this year's IW is "about a 25." I don't know if he was joking, he sounded serious. In the past it was 30:
Wow, did not know IW was slower than Miami! Also, wasn‘t Paris supposed to have the same surface as London? Would also be curious to know which courts are considered fast/blue, perhaps Marseille?

On a different note, Delpo is better in important moments and has the better forehand. I am also amazed how far he can stand to the left without watching a lot of dtl winners go by. Cilic has a better serve and since Delpo 2.0 more heat on the backhand side. Both don‘t really go to the net, which is weird considering the attacking power they have. I‘m going with the tower of tandil, but it should be close with a tiebreak or two.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Federer v Del Potro would be perfect for me. They always go to war.
 

van_Loederen

Professional
One bright spot (if this match happens) is that the courts are so agonizingly slow, Del Po's FH won't be as big of a weapon. It's very hard to hit winners on this HC, which looks slower than clay. I'd like to see the court speed index. Annacone was saying this year's IW is "about a 25." I don't know if he was joking, he sounded serious. In the past it was 30:
this is from 2016. last year IW was even 27 (and KB 30).

IW normally plays much faster than the CPI indicates though, due to the desert air.
(that's why Fred is so successful there.)
then again, the weather isn't always the same. i hear that this year it has even rained.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I guess Kohlschreiber being in Cilic's section is another reason why Del Potro is favored to reach the final LOL.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Wow! Kohlschreiber is now 7-4 vs Cilic for his career after today's win. I guess that Philipp gives Marin fits when they play.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
yeah.
tricky player.

was up 6-4 vs Cilic before this match. 7-4 now.
I was explaining to a couple of people who bet on Cilic and who were absolutely stunned that Kohlschreiber was winning that the h2h is often crucial when determining who's gonna win the match. Another good example from yesterday is Chardy against Mannarino. Mannarino was the favorite but he absolutely hates playing Chardy and with the exception of one poor service game he pretty much dominated him.
 
I clearly didn't do my research when I started this thread. If I had known Kohli was 6-4 against the big man, that would have made more sense.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
Hopefully, Kohlschreiber can go all the way to the final and face Federer. If that happens, then it'll be a coin-flip type of match.

Some people will pick Federer, simply because he is 14-0 this year with 12 straight-set blowout wins. He's also 66-5 since the beginning of 2017. Those are some insane numbers.

But on the other hand, Federer is 13-0 vs Kohlschreiber. The number "13" is a jinx number. And of course, nobody beats Kohl 14 straight times.
 

Winners or Errors

Hall of Fame
Wow! Was this a jinx thread or what? Man, I wish I'd thought of it to help Kohli win. Sad that I didn't get to watch him straight set Cilic, but it sounds like he played well. Ye of little faith.
 
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