Clay - The young man's surface or has it just flipped the script?

Hitman

Bionic Poster
I am hearing more and more about how RG will be Djokovic's best chance to win a slam, as it will be much harder to beat Sinner and the field on HC and Alcaraz is growing stronger on grass. The question is, is that relative to Djokovic? In other words, its low everywhere, but RG he might have a few percentage more than the other slams, or is it that the clay is helping the older guys more?

Now, we know all about Nadal, he stayed a God on clay until the very end, winning his last slam on clay. Then Djokovic became the oldest RG winner of all time, and also won Olympic gold on it, while beating the reigning RG champion on the way.

But it doesn't stop there. In 2019, Federer reached the semis of RG after having not played there for many years, and not only that, but Federer also in his last showings at RG in 2021 and his last showing at Rome, won his last matches there.

Is the narrative somewhat changed, or is it that these three were just super freaks and clay is indeed still a young man's surface?
 

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
His best chance will be Wimbledon, with RG and AO being roughly equal, and USO being very much the last option

Reason is that his experience/tactics on the natural surfaces can be a differentiator vs younger dumber players. Hard courts are the equalizer and will tax his legs the most
 

Dropshot777

Rookie
240613-rafael-nadal-se-1049a-acb5e8.jpg
 

junior74

Bionic Poster
Noldvak has his best chance in Wimbledon if Tiny has an off day. I think several players can beat him on HC and clay.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
Clay is the surface that rewards patience and good point construction, and punishes hastiness and an overly aggressive approach. Also with clay, the movement is somewhat different (sliding etc.), and momentum swings all over the place to the extent that you have to keep building up momentum all the time. Nadal's down to earth routines approach was perfectly in sync with clay momentum, and a big factor in his success there.

Contrast with grass, which rewards aggressive and instinctive play, and tends to punish too much patience. On grass, you can most easily grab momentum and ride with it.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
I will also add that Soderling beat Nadal at the 2009 French Open by choosing an aggressive high risk approach aiming at knocking Nadal off the court, similar to a Blake, Berdych, Youzhny approach to Nadal on hardcourt in those days. That approach, while very high risk, was probably more likely to beat Nadal than grinding with him and playing with lower risk would have been. So basically to beat Nadal on clay, you had the choice of trying to outdo Nadal at what he does best, or by playing a very risk aggressive play on the surface least friendly to such an approach, and where you are likely to make a lot of errors, but you might get lucky on a given day. If you take the former approach (i.e. grinding approach, like Mathieu in 2006 or Zverev in 2022) you had better be prepared to stay out there for about 7 hours, or Nadal will break you mentally.
 

Dropshot777

Rookie
True that he is definitely a better all rounder than muster and Ruud, but he’s still a clay specialist. Over half his grand slams are RG
 
You really can’t group RAFA with the other two when he’s won way too much off of clay. He’s one of two guys to have completed the DCGS.

At majors, the gap between clay and everything else is much greater for Muster than it is for Ruud. But Muster won some major events off-clay (Essen MS on carpet; Miami on hard). Ruud has won one 250 event off clay in his entire career!
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
If a surface is super-fast like indoors or skidding like grass, it favors big serving and quick points - so old guys who can serve well like Federer and Djokovic still do well in their late thirties. If a surface is very slow like clay, it gives older guys with reduced movement more time to stay in points and so you are seeing the Big 3 do well even in the tail-end of their careers. The game has become so powerful with big serves that most points end on clay also end within 4-6 shots and so it is not as much of an endurance struggle as it used to be where it might have hindered older guys in past decades.

The hard courts that are slow enough to not be servebot paradise might be the toughest surface for old guys these days as it probably requires quick movement and it is also tougher on joints leading to more injuries.
 

Rosstour

G.O.A.T.
No. By that logic, Fedovic are HC specialists since over half their schlems came on HC.

And that's not an unreasonable take

Fed's longest streak of SF or better came at the AO, even longer than Novak's longest. He made six straight USO finals.

Fed and Djoko are the two best HC players of all time and it isn't close. Djoko more capable on the slower variety with Fed preferring the faster

So no, I don't think you'd be totally wrong to say they were hardcourt specialists, they have three RGs between the two of them and sixteen AOs
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
And that's not an unreasonable take

Fed's longest streak of SF or better came at the AO, even longer than Novak's longest. He made six straight USO finals.

Fed and Djoko are the two best HC players of all time and it isn't close. Djoko more capable on the slower variety with Fed preferring the faster

So no, I don't think you'd be totally wrong to say they were hardcourt specialists, they have three RGs between the two of them and sixteen AOs
I just think it’s dumb to call anyone a specialist when they’ve won several major/big titles on all surfaces. Especially when on this site whenever anyone is labeled a specialist it’s almost exclusively used as a backhanded compliment at best and an outright insult at worst.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
1. Clay demands longer point construction.
2. Longer point construction demands longer matches.
3, Longer matches increase tiredness.
4. Old players prefer to say shorter on court to avoid tiredness and injuries.
5. Roland-Garros will be the hardest Grand Slam for Novak to win.
 

The Blond Blur

G.O.A.T.
Say it was a 5th slam, Nadal would have 35 slams assuming he won just as many as he did at the French. Under the same circumstances, Djokovic would have 27, and Federer would have 21 titles
Again, and? If you took away all of RAFA’s CC titles he’d still be in the same tier as guys like Agassi, JMac, Connors, and Lendl. That’s not the mark of a “specialist”.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
1. Clay demands longer point construction.
2. Longer point construction demands longer matches.
3, Longer matches increase tiredness.
4. Old players prefer to say shorter on court to avoid tiredness and injuries.
5. Roland-Garros will be the hardest Grand Slam for Novak to win.
Will likely never win.

Wimbledon he can win still now. This all hoopla about how he can't perform on fast courts is stupid.
 

BumElbow

Professional
Wimbledon and the Aussie Open are the 2 slams that Djokovic can still win.

Clay is really a surface for specialists. Clay court and baseline specialists have the best chance to win in Paris. I don't like Djokovic's chances at the French Open this year.
 
Novak won in olympics without loosing a set. Game is still there to beat anyone. And now at this last stage of his playing days he need little help from the stars also. On his good day he can still win .
 

Aabye5

G.O.A.T.
If a surface is super-fast like indoors or skidding like grass, it favors big serving and quick points - so old guys who can serve well like Federer and Djokovic still do well in their late thirties. If a surface is very slow like clay, it gives older guys with reduced movement more time to stay in points and so you are seeing the Big 3 do well even in the tail-end of their careers. The game has become so powerful with big serves that most points end on clay also end within 4-6 shots and so it is not as much of an endurance struggle as it used to be where it might have hindered older guys in past decades.

The hard courts that are slow enough to not be servebot paradise might be the toughest surface for old guys these days as it probably requires quick movement and it is also tougher on joints leading to more injuries.

I think one of the reasons the big 3 thrived in the latter stages of their careers on clay is because there aren't as many specialists around on the surface.

Most of the younger players prefer hard courts. In the past, Roger, Rafa, and even players like Safin/Murray spent some time developing on the clay. If a young Thiem/Soderling/Ferrer/Goffin were around, they would be in trouble.
 

Juice4080

Semi-Pro
He doesn't have to footspeed to track down Sinner's or Alcaraz's balls on grass and most likely hard courts anymore but clay gives him the chance to do so. Along with his higher shot tolerance and superior points construction this is where he has the best chance to win.
 
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