Comparing Federer's 2017 season to Djokovic's 2023

GrassMasters

GrassMasters

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At first glance, you look at Djokovic's season and conclude immediately that it was a much better season:
3 Slams won vs 2 Slams won
Slam loss was a final vs Slam loss was a QF
ATP Finals won vs ATP Finals semi
Finished year end No.1 vs No.2

You're right of course, but I want to look at how similar these seasons actually are.
* Both players turned 36.
* Both players had one slam loss.
* Both players won 7 titles.
* Both reached 8 finals.
* Both played a similar amount of matches. Federer-59. Djokovic-63. Just 4 matches more.

But actually, Federer has a few points where he's ahead:
* A better winning percentage. Federer 54-5 (92%). Djokovic 56-7 (89%).
* Better record vs top 10 (where historically Djokovic was more accomplished). Federer: 14-2 (88%). Djokovic: 17-5 (77%).
* 4-0 Vs. Nadal (The eventual year end No.1)

Titles
Federer won 2 Slams (Australian Open, Wimbledon). 3 Masters (Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai) and 2 500's (Halle, Basel). He reached the final of another Masters (Canadian Open).
Djokovic won 3 Slams (Australian Open, RG, USO), ATP Finals, 2 Masters (Cincinnati, Paris) and a 250 (Adelaide). He reached the final of Wimbledon.

Federer loses (5):
Evgeny Donskoy (116), Dubai 2R, 6–3, 6–7(7–9), 6–7(5–7)
Tommy Haas (302), Stuttgart 2R, 6–2, 6–7(8–10), 4–6
Alexander Zverev (8), Canada F, 3-6, 4-6
Del Potro (28), USO QF, 5–7, 6–3, 6–7(8–10), 4–6
David Goffin (8), ATP Finals, 6–2, 3–6, 4–6.

Djokovic loses (7):
Daniil Medvedev (7), Dubai SF, 4-6, 4-6
Lorenzo Musetti (21), Monte Carlo 3R, 6–4, 5–7, 4–6
Dušan Lajović (70), Srpska Open QF, 4–6, 6–7(6–8)
Holger Rune (7), Rome QF, 2–6, 6–4, 2–6
Carlos Alcaraz (1), Wimbledon F, 6–1, 6–7(6–8), 1–6, 6–3, 4–6
Jannik Sinner (4), ATP Finals RR, 5–7, 7–6(7–5), 6–7(2–7)
Jannik Sinner (4), Davies Cup Finals, 2–6, 6–2, 5–7

So what happened? Why did Federer fall short despite showing a maybe more consistent form?
One thing to note is Federer decided to skip the whole clay season. He never played RG. Obviously clay being his weakest surface, that helped his winning percentage, and perhaps helped to his very successful grass season.
So Federer actually only played 3 slams while Djokovic contested all 4.

Let's look at the most significant loses:
Federer had 3 out of 5.
Canada finals to Zverev (3-6, 4-6). A pretty convincing loss to a player he had won twice at this point, and lost once.
Del Potro at USO QF (5–7, 6–3, 6–7(8–10), 4–6). Federer has a very interesting history with Del Potro. While he has a pretty convincing h2h with him (18-7), basically ALL loses to him were significant ones:
After winning their first 6 meetings, Federer lost to him at the USO F. Also lost at ATP Finals 2009 RR (still he qualified to the semis). 2012 Basel F, 2012 ATP finals RR (again managed to qualify), 2013 Basel F, and the last loss of his career to him - 2018 Indian Wells F, where he lost after having 3 MP on his serve! (classic Fed). So it seems like Federer has a bit of a problem against Del Potro on the very big matches. Maybe even had a flashback to that USO final he lost to him way back then.
David Goffin at ATP Finals SF (6–2, 3–6, 4–6). Now I'm really getting annoyed. The pair met 11 times and this is the ONLY time Federer lost to Goffin. Basically after winning a very relaxed first set, Fed shat the bed. Why?

Djokovic had only 1 out of 7 (maybe 2)
Alcaraz Wimbledon F (6–1, 6–7(6–8), 1–6, 6–3, 4–6). A very epic and historic final. Both gave it their all.
Medvedev Dubai SF (4-6, 4-6). It's a 500 and a semi but still. He gets to a final and wins another Dubai. It's not nothing.
An almost big loss was that RR to Sinner at the ATP Finals, but it ended up not mattering when he still qualified and won the title (beating Sinner). Of course he almost didn't qualify, Sinner just had to lose to Rune to make Djokovic not qualify, but he chose his integrity over the title.
One more thing to note about Djokovic RG title: he had a very competitive match against Alcaraz SF, until Carlos became Cramparaz. Would he have won the title if he didn't?

A short summary of Nadal's 2022 (where he also turned 36):
Won 2 slams (AO and RG)
Won 2 more titles (Melbourne and Mexico)
Win loss record 39-8 (83%). 8-3 (73%) against top 10.
Finished year end No.2
Also lost just 1 slam match (USO 4R against Tiafoe (26) (4–6, 6–4, 4–6, 3–6)). At Wimbledon he retired before SF.
Reached the final of Indian Wells and lost to Taylor Fritz (20) (3–6, 6–7(5–7))
Nadal's best start to an ATP Tour season, when he won his first 20 matches (and three titles, including the Australian Open) in a row.
Won the last title of his career (RG).
So a very impressive season as well for a 36 year old.

So what did we learn here today?
That Djokovic knows when to lose and when to win?
That Federer doesn't? He likes to choke? That being his fan is pain?
That's it all fine margins despite a shallow first look that makes it seem much bigger than it is?
I don't know.
 
Fed was inconsistent that year, except during the Sunshine Double and during the grass court season.

Djoker only had one bad loss all year(Lajovic). Fed had 3 terrible losses(Donskoy, Haas, and Goffin). I still question that loss to #302 Haas. That was Haas’ last career victory. Haas went 0-7 after that win vs Fed. OTOH, Fed went on to win Halle and Wimbledon back-to-back without dropping a single set. Fed got injured vs Zverev in the Montreal final. That is one time where I really thought that Fed should have retired in a match. He was serving sideways in that final set, sometimes hitting the middle of the Net on his first serves.

That said, I’d go 2023 Djoker > 2017 Fed > 2022 Nadal. Fed makes it close with his stellar 14-2, .875 record vs the top 10. But ultimately, Djoker was too steady.
 
Pheasant said:
Fed was inconsistent that year, except during the Sunshine Double and during the grass court season.

Djoker only had one bad loss all year(Lajovic). Fed had 3 terrible losses(Donskoy, Haas, and Goffin). I still question that loss to #302 Haas. That was Haas’ last career victory. Haas went 0-7 after that win vs Fed. OTOH, Fed went on to win Halle and Wimbledon back-to-back without dropping a single set. Fed got injured vs Zverev in the Montreal final. That is one time where I really thought that Fed should have retired in a match. He was serving sideways in that final set, sometimes hitting the middle of the Net on his first serves.

That said, I’d go 2023 Djoker > 2017 Fed > 2022 Nadal. Fed makes it close with his stellar 14-2, .875 record vs the top 10. But ultimately, Djoker was too steady.
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Didn't realize that was Haas's last victory. Jesus.
 
Pheasant said:
Fed was inconsistent that year, except during the Sunshine Double and during the grass court season.

Djoker only had one bad loss all year(Lajovic). Fed had 3 terrible losses(Donskoy, Haas, and Goffin). I still question that loss to #302 Haas. That was Haas’ last career victory. Haas went 0-7 after that win vs Fed. OTOH, Fed went on to win Halle and Wimbledon back-to-back without dropping a single set. Fed got injured vs Zverev in the Montreal final. That is one time where I really thought that Fed should have retired in a match. He was serving sideways in that final set, sometimes hitting the middle of the Net on his first serves.

That said, I’d go 2023 Djoker > 2017 Fed > 2022 Nadal. Fed makes it close with his stellar 14-2, .875 record vs the top 10. But ultimately, Djoker was too steady.
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The breakdown of the forum after AO 2022 was still the highlight.
 
The biggest factor that brought down Federer's otherwise excellent 2017 was his back injury. It flared up in the summer hard court swing, likely affecting his match against Zverev, causing him to miss Cincinnati (usually a good tournament for him) and causing him to underperform at the USO. Without the injury, he likely bags an extra masters and has a good shot at a third slam (he did very well against Nadal that year). Obviously this is all hypothetical and it may have been no different.

The early loss to Donskoy was a freak loss in a period of otherwise excellent play. The Haas loss was after a long break (plus may have been a bit of a gift to Haas). Don't remember much about the Goffin loss, maybe end of season fatigue?

Djokovic still better overall by virtue of still being excellent on clay, which Federer was long past at this point. But apart from that, it really was the injury that separated them IMO with Federer being better on grass and them both being fairly similar on hard courts
 
Difference was mentality, I always said this, will going to say it again Fed was being greedy, wanted to take no 1 rankong without playing clay.
Djokovic picked his battle very wisely, no Madrid even after early loss at MC and Serbia open, no Canada open even after loosing Wimbledon final, no Shanghai, ready to Peak for Paris and Yec.
Because he schedule lightly he loss no 1 Ranking many time that year till us open but at age of 36 he decided to go for big things.
Now think of Fed who decide to not play at Canada open and decide to rest after Shanghai and Peak for Yec just think.
A sixth us open with seventh Yec
 
Fed played 62 or 63atches without playing clay and Novak played 63 with clay. Novak managed his session in much better way
 
Saying both had 1 slam loss is open lie. Of course you can not lose if you don't play.

Instead saying Djokovic was 1 set away from cygs and Federer didn't even contend for all 4 slams then it's total truth.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Saying both had 1 slam loss is open lie. Of course you can not lose if you don't play.

Instead saying Djokovic was 1 set away from cygs and Federer didn't even contend for all 4 slams then it's total truth.
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How he was one set away from qgis?
 
In fact Federer 2017 is barely ahead of Djokovic 2022 despite being banned from 4 masters plus Shanghai cancellation and 2 slams.

Djokovic points are in same ballpark I would assume. Maybe 1500 pts behind than Federer.
 
NAS said:
Actually winning Wimbledon might have given him no 1 Ranking means Sinner/ Zverev in qf, Med in Semi and Carlos in final
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Possible and he would have won then. Zverev was a spent force and djokovic we didnt know then but know now is 3-0 vs raz on hc.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Possible and he would have won then. Zverev was a spent force and djokovic we didnt know then but know now is 3-0 vs raz on hc.
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Actually draw of Carlos was tough, Evans was playing good, Arnaldi was playing good, Zverev was Passive and Med was really good in semi and then Carlos.
While Djokovic till round Four was easy, only Djere played decent but even there Novak started slowly
 
NAS said:
Actually draw of Carlos was tough, Evans was playing good, Arnaldi was playing good, Zverev was Passive and Med was really good in semi and then Carlos.
While Djokovic till round Four was easy, only Dere payenge decent but even there Novak started slowly
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You are right Carlos draw was tough.
 
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Djokovic 2023 is ahead overall.

Biotic said:
Without the injury Djoko bags 2024 RG, but such is life.
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Mmm, Alcaraz on clay is far from a given.


NAS said:
Difference was mentality, I always said this, will going to say it again Fed was being greedy, wanted to take no 1 rankong without playing clay.
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Yep. Either you skip clay and focus on winning slams or you play clay if you are gunning for #1 too. I think he didn't imagine he'd have a shot at #1 when he skipped clay and then in August he saw it was a possibility and went all guns blazing and it maybe cost him the USO. I think Federer had a good shot at the USO in 2017 and 2019 if he wasn't injured. Unfortunate that he got injured in both and never was able to end the drought there.

Pheasant said:
I still question that loss to #302 Haas. That was Haas’ last career victory. Haas went 0-7 after that win vs Fed.
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Towny said:
The early loss to Donskoy was a freak loss in a period of otherwise excellent play. The Haas loss was after a long break (plus may have been a bit of a gift to Haas).
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The Haas defeat was a gift but the Donskoy defeat was a really bad choke, he was ahead many times in that match and had MPs.
 
Pheasant said:
Fed was inconsistent that year, except during the Sunshine Double and during the grass court season.

Djoker only had one bad loss all year(Lajovic). Fed had 3 terrible losses(Donskoy, Haas, and Goffin). I still question that loss to #302 Haas. That was Haas’ last career victory. Haas went 0-7 after that win vs Fed. OTOH, Fed went on to win Halle and Wimbledon back-to-back without dropping a single set. Fed got injured vs Zverev in the Montreal final. That is one time where I really thought that Fed should have retired in a match. He was serving sideways in that final set, sometimes hitting the middle of the Net on his first serves.

That said, I’d go 2023 Djoker > 2017 Fed > 2022 Nadal. Fed makes it close with his stellar 14-2, .875 record vs the top 10. But ultimately, Djoker was too steady.
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I remain convinced that Fed gifted Haas, his friend, that tournament on purpose. As that is never something I could see Djokovic doing...
 
It kinda comes down to injuries again, in that Federer’s back injury screwed his USO run (he never played that badly on HC the whole rest of the year). Idk if he’d have beaten 17 Nadal considering the latter played his best HC tennis of the year from midway through the SF til the end of the F, but given how he beat Nadal in the rest of the year, he would have had a great shot. He was unlucky to not have a 3 slam season, but losing at the ATP finals was a huge fumble

Overall Djoker clearly had the best run at the USO, the ATP finals and probably at the AO (although I think 2017 Fed would have destroyed the AO 23 draw too). 22 Nadal clearly the best at RG, 17 Fed clearly the best at Wimbledon, and the most epic is Murray for what he did to Kokkinakis
 
Towny said:
The biggest factor that brought down Federer's otherwise excellent 2017 was his back injury. It flared up in the summer hard court swing, likely affecting his match against Zverev, causing him to miss Cincinnati (usually a good tournament for him) and causing him to underperform at the USO. Without the injury, he likely bags an extra masters and has a good shot at a third slam (he did very well against Nadal that year). Obviously this is all hypothetical and it may have been no different.

The early loss to Donskoy was a freak loss in a period of otherwise excellent play. The Haas loss was after a long break (plus may have been a bit of a gift to Haas). Don't remember much about the Goffin loss, maybe end of season fatigue?

Djokovic still better overall by virtue of still being excellent on clay, which Federer was long past at this point. But apart from that, it really was the injury that separated them IMO with Federer being better on grass and them both being fairly similar on hard courts
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This is an excellent analysis -as per usual- by the fantastic poster Towny. Great to see you back posting here!

I concur with the main thesis that Federer's late 2017 was, at least partially, hampered by an unfortunate injury. It all started in Canada. Mr. Roger could barely move in the final against Zverev and it was evident there was something wrong with his back. He skipped Cincinnati to heal it. Now, from the final of Canada to the 1R of the US Open 17 had passed. Normally, typical back pain is off after 1 or 2 weeks maximum. Naturally, only Federer's medical team know the extent of his pain, but all we can do is especulate. It was definetely an anomaly that Federer played a 5 hours set match in the 1R against a Tiafoe that was still raising and not the somewhat dangerous player we know today. Something was wrong with Federer at the tournament and it manifested in the aforementioned match. Whether it was actually back pain or some sort of psychological distress (fear of hurting his back if he overtries) we'll never know.

Now, if we analyze Federer's 4R match with Del Potro... I think we cannot completely rule out a victory of Del Potro even if Federer had shown a bit of better form. The reason? Del Potro was a rennaissance man at the USO 2017. He was hitting bomb forehands again, and playing really well (he beat a good playing Thiem in a clutch performance the previous round). And, as proved at the USO 2009, Del Potro can indeed beat a perfecly healthy Roger at the tournament. As a matter of fact, I'm not even sure Federer had any back pain in his match against Delpo. He seemed to be employing an unsuccesful tactic of approaching the net too much, letting Delpo execute magnificent passing shots with the brute strength of his running forehands.

This is all hypothetical. In a hypothetical, virtually all scenarios are possible. Conversely, you can also pick Federer as the hypothetical winner of Canada, CIncinnati and, maybe, even the USO 2017 had he not had that back incident in Canada which likely affected his physical shape and/or his confidence.
 
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StrongRule said:
2023 was the weakest year in tennis history. It was terrible even by the asterisk era standards. Easy to win when your main competition are Tsitsipas and Ruud.
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It’s all hypothetical ofc but I think 2017 Fed could have won the 2023 US Open even with his back injury. By the 4th round he’d got it together enough to straight set Kohli and play a pretty decent albeit choke-y match vs DelPo.

Imo he would have been able to get through Shelton and all the other dross, and Meddy played pretty badly in the final outside of the 2nd set (plus Fed liked that matchup a lot)
 
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Djokovic's 2023 quite clearly(as abmk would put it :-D). The only reason Federer had a higher W-L% is because he completely skipped his worst part of the season.
 
3 Slams + 1 final, 27/28 in Slams, WTF
2 Slams + 0 final, loss to Delpotro in QF of USO, loss to Goffin in WTF

Not sure there is much room for comparison here. And yeah, Federer skipped the whole clay season, which makes any comparison even more pointless.
 
Third Serve said:
2023 ahead because Novak felt fit enough to play (and do well in) the clay court season whereas Fed skipped it because of a risk of injury. Stronger YEC performance too. I have Fed better at the AO (slightly) and Wimbledon (significantly) though.
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2017 Federer probably not just plays, but wins RG against the 2023 field.
 
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zagor said:
Not sure I've ever seen Fed or Novak win a slam playing as badly as Nadal did at 2022 AO
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AO '06/Wimbly '21?
StrongRule said:
All of 2020-2025 are asterisk era, but 2023 brought it to a new level.
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'23 vs '22: Alcaraz better, Nadal worse, Ruud worse, Tsitsipas even/slightly worse, Djokovic slightly better/even, Medvedev better, Zv*rev worse, Sinner better
'24 vs '23: Sinner better, Zv*rev better, Alcaraz worse, Fritz better, Medvedev worse, Ruud slightly better, Djokovic worse, Tsitsipas worse
 
The 2017-2023 era began with a player turning 36 winning multiple slams, and ended with a player turning 36 winning multiple slams. That's the story.
 
Sport said:
This is an excellent analysis -as per usual- by the fantastic poster Towny. Great to see you back posting here!

I concur with the main thesis that Federer's late 2017 was, at least partially, hampered by an unfortunate injury. It all started in Canada. Mr. Roger could barely move in the final against Zverev and it was evident there're was something wrong with his back. He skipped Cincinnati to heal it. Now, from the final of Canada to the 1R of the US Open 17 had passed. Normally, typical back pain is off after 1 or 2 weeks maximum. Naturally, only Federer's medical team know the extent of his pain, but all we can do is especulate. It was definetely an anomaly that Federer played a 5 hours set match in the 1R against a Tiafoe that was still raising and not the somewhat dangerous player we know today. Something was wrong with Federer at the tournament and it manifested in the aforementioned match. Whether it was actually back pain or some sort of psychological distress (fear of hurting his back if he overtries) we'll never know.

Now, if we analyze Federer's 4R match with Del Potro... I think we cannot completely rule out a victory of Del Potro even if Federer had shown a bit of better form. The reason? Del Potro was a rennaissance man at the USO 2017. He was hitting bomb forehands again, and playing really well (he beat a good playing Thiem in a clutch performance the previous round). And, as proved at the USO 2009, Del Potro can indeed beat a perfecly healthy Roger at the tournament. As a matter of fact, I'm not even sure Federer had any back pain in his match against Delpo. He seemed to be employing an unsuccesful tactic of approaching the net too much, letting Delpo execute magnificent passing shots with the brute strength of his running forehands.

This is all hypothetical. In a hypothetical, virtually all scenarios are possible. Conversely, you can also pick Federer as the hypothetical winner of Canada, CIncinnati and, maybe, even the USO 2017 had he not had that back incident in Canada which likely affected his physical shape and/or his confidence.
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Thank you Sport for your kind words!

Completely agree that this is all a hypothetical and things could have gone either way. Would Federer have definitely beaten Zverev otherwise? Would he have gone on to beat Del Potro and then Nadal? I completely take your point about Del Potro. He was playing well and Federer has definitely struggled a lot with him in some matches, including at the US Open. Perfectly possible that Federer loses regardless, especially given we don't know exactly if and how the injury affected him in that match. Likewise, Nadal at the USO is a dangerous opponent and just because Federer beat him at their other matches that year does not mean that he would have done so at the US Open. Still, perhaps an interesting thought experiment. As I said before though, whichever way we look at it, I think we have to give the edge to Djokovic 2023 overall.
 
Give me Fed's 2017 for a couple reasons

Fed's main rival, Nadal, was in top form. Fed beat Rafa in 3 big Finals (Aussie Open, Miami and Shanghai). Also won the Sunshine Double over a still peak-form Wawrinka at Indian Wells. Cruises through Halle and Wimbledon as well. Dimitrov was playing the best tennis of his career that season, and you had youngsters like Zverev and even Jack Sock starting to make names for themselves (obviously Sock fell off a CLIFF, but he was playing great that season). I just think the level of play across the tour was higher in 2017 than 2023

Djoko had the advantage of Nadal being out for the whole season (at was the biggest reason he won RG in my opinion). Also, beating Tanktsipas in Australia and Ruud at Roland Garros wasn't as impressive for me. Meddy coming out so flat in that USO final (after a great win vs Alcaraz in the SFs) is just mystifying for me
 
StrongRule said:
2017 Federer probably not just plays, but wins RG against the 2023 field.
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Wish I had your confidence but we have a sample size of exactly 0 for 2017 Fed on clay. Too speculative for me.

If he plays at 2019 level I could see him getting the win if Djokovic isn't in the field though.
 
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zagor said:
Not sure I've ever seen Fed or Novak win a slam playing as badly as Nadal did at 2022 AO. He was pretty clutch and mentally tough though, sometimes that's enough I guess.
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Closest was probably Novak's Wimbledon 2021 but Ned still gets the nod for the Shapovalov match alone.
 
Djokovic2011 said:
Djokovic's 2023 quite clearly(as abmk would put it :-D). The only reason Federer had a higher W-L% is because he completely skipped his worst part of the season.
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Fed's 2019 clay season is probably as close as we could get to seeing what his 2017 clay season would look like. That turned out to be QFs at Madrid and Rome, plus a SF at RG. So a 9-3 win/loss (technically 9-2 but he had a walkover in one of those matches so I'm converting that to a more likely direct loss).

If that gets added to Fed's 2017 win rate he ends up at 88.4, about level with Djokovic. Now 2017 could be completely different than that for all we know because Fed's return to form on the forehand wing that year might get the dividends on clay and improve his win percentage. Or he could have a weird loss somewhere and fall under.
 
Angrybirdstar said:
AO '06/Wimbly '21?

'23 vs '22: Alcaraz better, Nadal worse, Ruud worse, Tsitsipas even/slightly worse, Djokovic slightly better/even, Medvedev better, Zv*rev worse, Sinner better
'24 vs '23: Sinner better, Zv*rev better, Alcaraz worse, Fritz better, Medvedev worse, Ruud slightly better, Djokovic worse, Tsitsipas worse
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AO 06? what?

that was prime federer.

AO 17/AO 18 from fed himself were clearly worse for starters.
 
Third Serve said:
Fed's 2019 clay season is probably as close as we could get to seeing what his 2017 clay season would look like. That turned out to be QFs at Madrid and Rome, plus a SF at RG. So a 9-3 win/loss (technically 9-2 but he had a walkover in one of those matches so I'm converting that to a more likely direct loss).

If that gets added to Fed's 2017 win rate he ends up at 88.4, about level with Djokovic. Now 2017 could be completely different than that for all we know because Fed's return to form on the forehand wing that year might get the dividends on clay and improve his win percentage. Or he could have a weird loss somewhere and fall under.
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It's hard to get too in the weeds with the numbers because him skipping clay had an impact on how he played the rest of the season. Coming off the layoff in 2016 he was trying to ramp up his season to get back to normal by Wimbledon. But then he accidentally won nearly all of his matches to start 2017 and by the clay season he was completely gassed.

If he played through it then maybe he has a decent clay season, but his June-Nov numbers probably take a bigger dip if he doesn't have that mini offseason in April-May.
 
MeatTornado said:
It's hard to get too in the weeds with the numbers because him skipping clay had an impact on how he played the rest of the season. Coming off the layoff in 2016 he was trying to ramp up his season to get back to normal by Wimbledon. But then he accidentally won nearly all of his matches to start 2017 and by the clay season he was completely gassed.

If he played through it then maybe he has a decent clay season, but his June-Nov numbers probably take a bigger dip if he doesn't have that mini offseason in April-May.
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Maybe so, but I don’t think he had a super pronounced dip after actually playing the clay season in 2019 so it’s hard to say how much his June-Nov numbers would take a hit, if at all.
 
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