At first glance, you look at Djokovic's season and conclude immediately that it was a much better season:
3 Slams won vs 2 Slams won
Slam loss was a final vs Slam loss was a QF
ATP Finals won vs ATP Finals semi
Finished year end No.1 vs No.2
You're right of course, but I want to look at how similar these seasons actually are.
* Both players turned 36.
* Both players had one slam loss.
* Both players won 7 titles.
* Both reached 8 finals.
* Both played a similar amount of matches. Federer-59. Djokovic-63. Just 4 matches more.
But actually, Federer has a few points where he's ahead:
* A better winning percentage. Federer 54-5 (92%). Djokovic 56-7 (89%).
* Better record vs top 10 (where historically Djokovic was more accomplished). Federer: 14-2 (88%). Djokovic: 17-5 (77%).
* 4-0 Vs. Nadal (The eventual year end No.1)
Titles
Federer won 2 Slams (Australian Open, Wimbledon). 3 Masters (Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai) and 2 500's (Halle, Basel). He reached the final of another Masters (Canadian Open).
Djokovic won 3 Slams (Australian Open, RG, USO), ATP Finals, 2 Masters (Cincinnati, Paris) and a 250 (Adelaide). He reached the final of Wimbledon.
Federer loses (5):
Evgeny Donskoy (116), Dubai 2R, 6–3, 6–7(7–9), 6–7(5–7)
Tommy Haas (302), Stuttgart 2R, 6–2, 6–7(8–10), 4–6
Alexander Zverev (8), Canada F, 3-6, 4-6
Del Potro (28), USO QF, 5–7, 6–3, 6–7(8–10), 4–6
David Goffin (8), ATP Finals, 6–2, 3–6, 4–6.
Djokovic loses (7):
Daniil Medvedev (7), Dubai SF, 4-6, 4-6
Lorenzo Musetti (21), Monte Carlo 3R, 6–4, 5–7, 4–6
Dušan Lajović (70), Srpska Open QF, 4–6, 6–7(6–8)
Holger Rune (7), Rome QF, 2–6, 6–4, 2–6
Carlos Alcaraz (1), Wimbledon F, 6–1, 6–7(6–8), 1–6, 6–3, 4–6
Jannik Sinner (4), ATP Finals RR, 5–7, 7–6(7–5), 6–7(2–7)
Jannik Sinner (4), Davies Cup Finals, 2–6, 6–2, 5–7
So what happened? Why did Federer fall short despite showing a maybe more consistent form?
One thing to note is Federer decided to skip the whole clay season. He never played RG. Obviously clay being his weakest surface, that helped his winning percentage, and perhaps helped to his very successful grass season.
So Federer actually only played 3 slams while Djokovic contested all 4.
Let's look at the most significant loses:
Federer had 3 out of 5.
Canada finals to Zverev (3-6, 4-6). A pretty convincing loss to a player he had won twice at this point, and lost once.
Del Potro at USO QF (5–7, 6–3, 6–7(8–10), 4–6). Federer has a very interesting history with Del Potro. While he has a pretty convincing h2h with him (18-7), basically ALL loses to him were significant ones:
After winning their first 6 meetings, Federer lost to him at the USO F. Also lost at ATP Finals 2009 RR (still he qualified to the semis). 2012 Basel F, 2012 ATP finals RR (again managed to qualify), 2013 Basel F, and the last loss of his career to him - 2018 Indian Wells F, where he lost after having 3 MP on his serve! (classic Fed). So it seems like Federer has a bit of a problem against Del Potro on the very big matches. Maybe even had a flashback to that USO final he lost to him way back then.
David Goffin at ATP Finals SF (6–2, 3–6, 4–6). Now I'm really getting annoyed. The pair met 11 times and this is the ONLY time Federer lost to Goffin. Basically after winning a very relaxed first set, Fed shat the bed. Why?
Djokovic had only 1 out of 7 (maybe 2)
Alcaraz Wimbledon F (6–1, 6–7(6–8), 1–6, 6–3, 4–6). A very epic and historic final. Both gave it their all.
Medvedev Dubai SF (4-6, 4-6). It's a 500 and a semi but still. He gets to a final and wins another Dubai. It's not nothing.
An almost big loss was that RR to Sinner at the ATP Finals, but it ended up not mattering when he still qualified and won the title (beating Sinner). Of course he almost didn't qualify, Sinner just had to lose to Rune to make Djokovic not qualify, but he chose his integrity over the title.
One more thing to note about Djokovic RG title: he had a very competitive match against Alcaraz SF, until Carlos became Cramparaz. Would he have won the title if he didn't?
A short summary of Nadal's 2022 (where he also turned 36):
Won 2 slams (AO and RG)
Won 2 more titles (Melbourne and Mexico)
Win loss record 39-8 (83%). 8-3 (73%) against top 10.
Finished year end No.2
Also lost just 1 slam match (USO 4R against Tiafoe (26) (4–6, 6–4, 4–6, 3–6)). At Wimbledon he retired before SF.
Reached the final of Indian Wells and lost to Taylor Fritz (20) (3–6, 6–7(5–7))
Nadal's best start to an ATP Tour season, when he won his first 20 matches (and three titles, including the Australian Open) in a row.
Won the last title of his career (RG).
So a very impressive season as well for a 36 year old.
So what did we learn here today?
That Djokovic knows when to lose and when to win?
That Federer doesn't? He likes to choke? That being his fan is pain?
That's it all fine margins despite a shallow first look that makes it seem much bigger than it is?
I don't know.
