Comparing Nadal at the AO with Nadal at the USO

[mike danny]

Inspired by @eldanger25's thread.

Does Nadal really have a higher level at the USO than at the AO? In my view, he has had a bit tougher at the AO and has had the misfortune of running into peaking opponents many times, opponents that he never had at the USO IMO. This IMO explains the difference in AO and USO titles.

His 2012 and 2009 AO campaigna IMO were on par or even better than any of his USO campaigns. And 2017 AO campaign was quite good too.

So where has Nadal really displayed higher level?

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

About the same or better at the AO. Basically luckbotted with his and opponents USO draws while he had regular ones at the AO but he hasn't underperformed or been unlucky at the AO given he won his sole title by the skin of his balls.

 

[zagor]

Tempted to say he overachieved at USO and underachieved at AO but don't think it's as simple as that.

Even when they were faster, USO courts still seemed higher bouncing to me. I think AO court on plexi is "deader", USO takes spin better which allows Nadal to dictate more with his FH.

 

[mike danny]

Tempted to say he overachieved at USO and underachieved at AO but don't think it's as simple as that.

Even when they were faster, USO courts still seemed higher bouncing to me. I think AO court on plexi is "deader", USO takes spin better which allows Nadal to dictate more with his FH.

Why did Fed have trouble with Nadal in 2009 and 2012 if the AO courts are "deader"?

 

[mike danny]

Tempted to say he overachieved at USO and underachieved at AO but don't think it's as simple as that.

Even when they were faster, USO courts still seemed higher bouncing to me. I think AO court on plexi is "deader", USO takes spin better which allows Nadal to dictate more with his FH.

I do think he overachieved at the USO. Only 5 top 10 wins there in his entire career and only 8 career matches against the top 10.

Must be the only 3 time champion with so few top 10 wins and matches.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Tempted to say he overachieved at USO and underachieved at AO but don't think it's as simple as that.

Even when they were faster, USO courts still seemed higher bouncing to me. I think AO court on plexi is "deader", USO takes spin better which allows Nadal to dictate more with his FH.

He's 3 time USO champion with 5-4 record against the top 10. Beat 4 for his two titles and half of those were Verdasco and career pidgeon Gasquet (who played two 5 setters before their match). Each time he played a final against Novak, Novak had played a 5 setter against Federer/Wawrinka in the SF while got two mugs and Andy.

 

[zagor]

Why did Fed have trouble with Nadal in 2009 and 2012 if the AO courts are "deader"?

Defense and shotmaking, people forget how well Fed's BH held up in 2009 AO F, it's his serving that let him down. Plus Nadal was in impervious form, one of his best ever on HC.

2012, well it was 30+ year old Fed against prime Nadal, it's normal that BO5 would favour Nadal on any slower surface at that point.

 

[Deleted member 512391]

Why did Fed have trouble with Nadal in 2009 and 2012 if the AO courts are "deader"?

Because it's tougher for Roger to hit through such courts against a great defender, he also hit his forehand with a lot of topspin, so a "dead" court doesn't help him at all.

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

cheating level was similar at both tournaments.

 

[ADuck]

but he hasn't underperformed or been unlucky at the AO

That is simply untrue

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

That is simply untrue

I don't think so, Tim.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

About the same or better at the AO. Basically luckbotted with his and opponents USO draws while he had regular ones at the AO but he hasn't underperformed or been unlucky at the AO given he won his sole title by the skin of his balls.

Losing to his pigeon Wawrinka in the final wasn’t underperforming?

 

[Deleted member 512391]

Nadal's game is better suited to a fast HC because his forehand is more lethal under such conditions, so no wonder he's been more successful at the USO. When a hard court is slower, his forehand cannot penetrate through the court as easy, and an elite returner will have more time to handle his serve. No wonder Djokovic owns him on a slower HC, where he could match Nadal's offense with his own defense without much troubles, and is trailing behind on the faster ones (in their H2H).

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Same, competition was the difference.

 

[ADuck]

I don't think so, Tim.

2010, 2011, 2014, 2018. His form has also been far better at the USO for whatever reason. His forehand is always clicking far better there.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

2010, 2011, 2014, 2018. His form has also been far better at the USO for whatever reason. His forehand is always clicking far better there.

Murray was already leading by two sets.
Was lucky not to start his losing streak against Novak earlier.
Stan was to one to beat Novak during his domination so he fully deserved it.
Took like 4 hours to beat Diego so whatever.

 

[ADuck]

Nadal's game is better suited to a fast HC because his forehand is more lethal under such conditions, so no wonder he's been more successful at the USO. When a hard court is slower, his forehand cannot penetrate through the court as easy, and an elite returner will have more time to handle his serve. No wonder Djokovic owns him on a slower HC, where he could match Nadal's offense with his own defense without much troubles, and is trailing behind on the faster ones (in their H2H).

This. USO court just suits his style better than AO. You also see him using his forehand DTL far more aggressively at the USO.

 

[ADuck]

Murray was already leading by two sets.
Was lucky not to start his losing streak against Novak earlier.
Stan was to one to beat Novak during his domination so he fully deserved it.
Took like 4 hours to beat Diego so whatever.

You're arguing random cases. Point is he's been far unluckier at the AO in terms of injuries and also his form is never as good there. It's a combination of the two.

 

[ForumMember]

Why did Fed have trouble with Nadal in 2009 and 2012 if the AO courts are "deader"?

Simply because Nadal was better player.

 

[RS]

Defense and shotmaking, people forget how well Fed's BH held up in 2009 AO F, it's his serving that let him down. Plus Nadal was in impervious form, one of his best ever on HC.

2012, well it was 30+ year old Fed against prime Nadal, it's normal that BO5 would favour Nadal on any slower surface at that point.

Federer actually hit 20 winners of his BH and 30 UFs. This is back when Nadal was hitting his FH much better than 2014-2018.
Federer hit 22 winners in Rome 2006 vs Nadal of the BH side.
AO was never slow. Medium or Medium-Fast since 1988.

 

[RS]

I don't think so, Tim.

2004-2005 prime Hewitt when still immature
2008-TsongaBombs
2010-Mid match injury
2011 same as above
2012-Match with the king of Plexicushion Djokovic nearly won
2013-Stomach Virus
2014-Injury mid match
2017-Days less rest and nearly beat Federer on faster courts.
Somewhat unlucky.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

2004-2005 prime Hewitt when still immature
2008-TsongaBombs
2010-Mid match injury
2011 same as above
2012-Match with the king of Plexicushion Djokovic nearly won
2013-Stomach Virus
2014-Injury mid match
2017-Days less rest and nearly beat Federer on faster courts.
Somewhat unlucky.

Tsonga beat him, so? Already explained 2010, 2011 and 2014. In 2012 Djokovic was the one, who had the one day less of rest after a marathon match if you want to use that excuse plus Djokovic just mugged up the 4th set -- RAFA was just lucky to take it to five, """stomach virus"""" and having one day less of rest against grampa, lololol.

 

[mike danny]

Federer actually hit 20 winners of his BH and 30 UFs. This is back when Nadal was hitting his FH much better than 2014-2018.
Federer hit 22 winners in Rome 2006 vs Nadal of the BH side.
AO was never slow. Medium or Medium-Fast since 1988.

It was ridiculously slow in 2012.

 

[mike danny]

2004-2005 prime Hewitt when still immature
2008-TsongaBombs
2010-Mid match injury
2011 same as above
2012-Match with the king of Plexicushion Djokovic nearly won
2013-Stomach Virus
2014-Injury mid match
2017-Days less rest and nearly beat Federer on faster courts.
Somewhat unlucky.

That excuse just doesn't hold when your opponent is 35 years old who had also played a couple of 5 setters before the final.

 

[abmk]

Federer actually hit 20 winners of his BH and 30 UFs. This is back when Nadal was hitting his FH much better than 2014-2018.
Federer hit 22 winners in Rome 2006 vs Nadal of the BH side.
AO was never slow. Medium or Medium-Fast since 1988.

AO was very slow in 11 and 12...12 --- 2nd week in particular was bad.
10 semis/final looked slow to me as well.

 

[abmk]

2004-2005 prime Hewitt when still immature
2008-TsongaBombs
2010-Mid match injury
2011 same as above
2012-Match with the king of Plexicushion Djokovic nearly won
2013-Stomach Virus
2014-Injury mid match
2017-Days less rest and nearly beat Federer on faster courts.
Somewhat unlucky.

2008 - tsonga GOATing is not bad luck. its competition.
2010 - murray was the better player even before the injury and would've won probably anyways.
2011- yeah, would've won vs ferrer otherwise probably, but would've lost to djoko anyways.
2012 - again, nothing to do with luck.
2013 - yeah, but he wouldn't have won that after 6 months off anyways.
2014 - yeah, but Stan was beating him even before that, a set and a break up
2017 - fed actually had a minor groin injury, had played 2 5-setters on the way to the final himself. was 35.5 years old, coming from a 6 month break. so quit it.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Since we like talking about tough draws and such, take a look at the line up Nadal has faced at AO during his runs

AO 2009 - Peak Verdasco, and prime Federer
AO 2012 - Peak Berdych, a good Federer, and then pushed peak Djokovic to the brink
AO 2014 - In form Nishikori, in form Dimitrov, Federer, Stanimal
AO 2017 - Zverev, Raonic, Peakiest Dimitrov, pushed Federer to five

Compare that to his USO title runs, and you will see the depth is no where near. I think Nadal plays very well in AO, he has just has some brutal draws there compared to USO, where he has certainly enjoyed far easier runs to the title.

 

[mike danny]

Since we like talking about tough draws and such, take a look at the line up Nadal has faced at AO during his runs

AO 2009 - Peak Verdasco, and prime Federer
AO 2012 - Peak Berdych, a good Federer, and then pushed peak Djokovic to the brink
AO 2014 - In form Nishikori, in form Dimitrov, Federer, Stanimal
AO 2017 - Zverev, Raonic, Peakiest Dimitrov, pushed Federer to five

Compare that to his USO title runs, and you will see the depth is no where near. I think Nadal plays very well in AO, he has just has some brutal draws there compared to USO, where he has certainly enjoyed far easier runs to the title.

Exactly. He has just faced stiffer competition at the AO compared to USO. He even has more career top 10 wins at the AO than at the USO.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Exactly. He has just faced stiffer competition at the AO compared to USO. He even has more career top 10 wins at the AO than at the USO.

I mean, who were the semi final opponents in his title wins there?
2010 Youzhny, 2013 Gasquet, 2017 a tired and sick Del Potro with Anderson in the final

AO 2009 semi - Peak Verdasco in complete God Mode
AO 2012 semi - a good in form Federer
AO 2014 semi - Federer
AO 2017 semi - Peakiest Dimitrov

It is not even close

Also, how many of Nadal opponents in 2010 USO had endured five set matches before playing him, I think Verdasco, Youzhny and Djokovic
Also, Djokovic had to go through Federer and Stanimal in his semis at the USO 2010 and US2013, compare that to what Nadal faced in his semis there

Give Nadal an Anderson in the AO final, and watch him clean house.

 

[abmk]

I mean, who were the semi final opponents in his title wins there?
2010 Youzhny, 2013 Gasquet, 2017 a tired and sick Del Potro with Anderson in the final

AO 2009 semi - Peak Verdasco in complete God Mode
AO 2012 semi - a good in form Federer
AO 2014 semi - Federer
AO 2017 semi - Peakiest Dimitrov

It is not even close

Also, how many of Nadal opponents in 2010 USO had endured five set matches before playing him, I think Verdasco, Youzhny and Djokovic
Also, Djokovic had to go through Federer and Stanimal in his semis at the USO 2010 and US2013, compare that to what Nadal faced in his semis there

Give Nadal an Anderson in the AO final, and watch him clean house.

Gasquet had also come into the semi after 5-setters vs Raonic AND Ferrer in USO 13.

youzhny also seemed spent in the USO 2010 semi vs Nadal.

 

[mike danny]

2010, 2011, 2014, 2018. His form has also been far better at the USO for whatever reason. His forehand is always clicking far better there.

In 2010 he was already down 2 sets to love even before he got injured.

In 2011 he wouldn't have beaten Djokovic

In 2018 he wouldn't have beaten Federer.

Only in 2014 he was really unlucky. But that's it.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Gasquet had also come into the semi after 5-setters vs Raonic AND Ferrer in USO 13.

youzhny also seemed spent in the USO 2010 semi vs Nadal.

Well, there you go.

Nadal really did benefit at USO and suffer at AO from the way the draws happened.

 

[abmk]

Exactly. He has just faced stiffer competition at the AO compared to USO. He even has more career top 10 wins at the AO than at the USO.

to be precise, his record vs top 10 at the AO is 7-8 (15 top 10 matches out of 67 matches at the AO -- 22.39%)
at the USO , it is 5-4. (9 top 10 matches out of 52 matches at the USO -- 17.3% )

 

[mike danny]

I mean, who were the semi final opponents in his title wins there?
2010 Youzhny, 2013 Gasquet, 2017 a tired and sick Del Potro with Anderson in the final

AO 2009 semi - Peak Verdasco in complete God Mode
AO 2012 semi - a good in form Federer
AO 2014 semi - Federer
AO 2017 semi - Peakiest Dimitrov

It is not even close

Also, how many of Nadal opponents in 2010 USO had endured five set matches before playing him, I think Verdasco, Youzhny and Djokovic
Also, Djokovic had to go through Federer and Stanimal in his semis at the USO 2010 and US2013, compare that to what Nadal faced in his semis there

Give Nadal an Anderson in the AO final, and watch him clean house.

Federer was not great at 2014 AO. His confidence was still not there yet after his horrible 2013 season. Nadal OTOH was still at his peak and was riding a huge wave of momentum after his incredible 2013 season. 2014 Fed was not tough competition for him there.

IMO, if Nadal got opponents not playing well in his AO finals, like he got Djokovic in the 2010 and 2013 USO finals and if he got a draw as ridiculously easy as he got at last year's USO, he would have more than 1 AO title.

His lack of luck at the AO, as some have said, has more than been balanced by his incredible fortune at the USO.

 

[mike danny]

to be precise, his record vs top 10 at the AO is 7-8 (15 top 10 matches out of 67 matches at the AO -- 22.39%)
at the USO , it is 5-4. (9 top 10 matches out of 52 matches at the USO -- 17.3% )

In fairness, Nadal was also affected by injury at the 2011,2014 and 2018 AO, so that's why his top 10 record suffered a bit.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Federer was not great at 2014 AO. His confidence was still not there yet after his horrible 2013 season. Nadal OTOH was still at his peak and was riding a huge wave of momentum after his incredible 2013 season. 2014 Fed was not tough competition for him there.

IMO, if Nadal got opponents not playing well in his AO finals, like he got Djokovic in the 2010 and 2013 USO finals and if he got a draw as ridiculously easy as he got at last year's USO, he would have more than 1 AO title.

His lack of luck at the AO, as some have said, has more than been balanced by his incredible fortune at the USO.

Federer at AO 2014 was still better than Youzhny and Gasquet IMO. It is basically about the relative challenges, and remember Nadal had to go through in form Nishikori and in form Dimitrov in that very slam, both who went onto have great 2014 seasons. There was no such thing in any of his title runs at USO.

Agree with the last bit, which is why I kind of smile at some Nadal fans who say Nadal deserves another AO because he was so unlucky there...yeah, he got the payoff at USO IMO.

 

[abmk]

In fairness, Nadal was also affected by injury at the 2011,2014 and 2018 AO, so that's why his top 10 record suffered a bit.

2011 - yes, I think he'd have probably beaten Ferrer.
2014 - I think stan would beaten him anyways. was beating him before the injury.
2018 - could've gone either way tbh. it was headed to a 5th even before Nadal's injury - Cilic was up a break.

 

[mike danny]

Federer at AO 2014 was still better than Youzhny and Gasquet IMO. It is basically about the relative challenges, and remember Nadal had to go through in form Nishikori and in form Dimitrov in that very slam, both who went onto have great 2014 seasons. There was no such thing in any of his title runs at USO.

Agree with the last bit, which is why I kind of smile at some Nadal fans who say Nadal deserves another AO because he was so unlucky there...yeah, he got the payoff at USO IMO.

In fairness, both Federer and Nadal have had incredibly stiff competition at the AO throughout their careers at the AO.

Nadal has been discussed having tough roads in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2017.

Federer too continuously received tough SF at the AO after 2010 while he wasn't in his prime anymore and in previous years he had also got in-form Safin, Djokovic and Nadal.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

In fairness, both Federer and Nadal have had incredibly stiff competition at the AO throughout their careers at the AO.

Nadal has been discussed having tough roads in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2017.

Federer too continuously received tough SF at the AO after 2010 while he wasn't in his prime anymore and in previous years he had also got in-form Safin, Djokovic and Nadal.

AO has been very competitive over the years, I remember once people used to say USO is the slam for all the styles, seems like AO is overtaking it in that.

 

[mike danny]

AO has been very competitive over the years, I remember once people used to say USO is the slam for all the styles, seems like AO is overtaking it in that.

And the speeding of the courts at the AO is also doing it a huge favor. At least one HC slam has to be fast in order to have balance.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Some iof Nadal's greatest matches, win or lose have happened at the AO.

Verdasco AO 09, Federer 09, Djokovic AO 2012, Dimitrov AO 2017, Federer AO 2017

Not sure how many at the USO were truly standouts.

 

[mike danny]

Some iof Nadal's greatest matches, win or lose have happened at the AO.

Verdasco AO 09, Federer 09, Djokovic AO 2012, Dimitrov AO 2017, Federer AO 2017

Not sure how many at the USO were truly standouts.

Well, Fognini 2015 USO and Pouille 2016 USO are the only ones that come close. But even they pale in comparison to the AO matches that you mentioned.

 

[metsman]

On the balance, 3-4 HC slams for Nadal is about fair, so what he lost at the AO he made up with weak USO draws.

 

[Standaa]

The fact that Federer only has two more USO titles than Nadal while also being 5 years older is effing hysterical

 

[mike danny]

The fact that Federer only has two more USO titles than Nadal while also being 5 years older is effing hysterical

If only he got a draw line Nadal got last year.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

USO court takes spin better. He has been somewhat unlucky at AO and lucky at USO if you wanna play that game, but I still think his level is slightly better at USO. Peak level maybe the same.

 

[Standaa]

If only he got a draw line Nadal got last year.

He would still had to face one of Nadal/Delpo, plus the real problem was his back injury and not the draw because he would have won it comfortably even with the draw he got had he been playing like in the first half of 2017.

 

[mike danny]

He would still had to face one of Nadal/Delpo, plus the real problem was his back injury and not the draw because he would have won it comfortably even with the draw he got had he been playing like in the first half of 2017.

I was talking about the times he was healthy. He would have won in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 had he got Nadal's draw from last year.

 

[Standaa]

I was talking about the times he was healthy. He would have won in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 had he got Nadal's draw from last year.

@sureshs would have won USO with that kinda draw.

 

[zagor]

That excuse just doesn't hold when your opponent is 35 years old who had also played a couple of 5 setters before the final.

And coming off a 6 month injury break after having knee surgery last year.

Not to mention that Nadal had a softer draw, Fed wouldn't have gone 5 sets with Dimitrov while Stan may very well have beaten Nadal.