Computer Model gives Joker only 40% chance for Gold

[Tshooter]

40% ? So much for the "experts" and the model.

"Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic, who has to prevail over stiff competition from Roger Federer and hometown favorite Andy Murray, has just a 40% chance for gold."

http://tinyurl.com/7ltl6jq

 

[Headshotterer]

"only"?
40% is pretty good

 

[Tshooter]

He has the same "stiff" competition at every Masters and Major event. This time minus Nadal. I'd say 40% is low.

 

[DoubleDeuce]

40 is about right.

Murray gave Rodge more trouble than Djok did

 

[BreakPoint]

He has the same "stiff" competition at every Masters and Major event. This time minus Nadal. I'd say 40% is low.

You forget that grass is Djokovic's worst surface. He only made the Wimbledon final once and has never won any other grass tournaments.

 

[Max G.]

40 seems reasonable? Something like 40 Djokovic, 30 Federer, 15 nadal, 10 murray, 5 someone else? Or maybe switch the probabilities for Nadal and Murray, given how they did at wimbledon.

Actually, looking at his YTD stats, 40 might even be a little high! He's only won 2 tournaments this year out of the 9 he's entered, so this year so far he's won 22% of his tournaments.

 

[TopFH]

40 seems reasonable? Something like 40 Djokovic, 30 Federer, 15 nadal, 10 murray, 5 someone else? Or maybe switch the probabilities for Nadal and Murray, given how they did at wimbledon.

Actually, looking at his YTD stats, 40 might even be a little high! He's only won 2 tournaments this year out of the 9 he's entered, so this year so far he's won 22% of his tournaments.

You do realize Nadal is not playing? That should give Federer at least 50% chance to win.

 

[ductrung3993]

40% Djok
40% Fed
10% Murray
10% the rest

 

[Russeljones]

Computer says No.

 

[jemsiter]

60% Federer
20% Murray
15% Djokovic
5% Others

 

[firepanda]

Haha, when Nadal's out, Federer's guaranteed to win, especially in these conditions.

 

[Russeljones]

Haha, when Nadal's out, Federer's guaranteed to win, especially in these conditions.

Isn't he guaranteed a potential SF against Murray? Hypothetically after reaching the Semi and hypothetically defeating Andy he'd have to hypothetically defeat Djokovic.

It's a tall order for any of the three remaining and in a best of 3 setting it's going to be a bit of a lottery. Players like Tsonga and Berdych can put together sizzling tennis.

 

[Joseph L. Barrow]

"Only" 40%?! A 40% chance is excellent; in fact, it means that they put him at the very least among the top two choices for the title. Seeing as this tournament is being held at the exact same venue as the Wimbledon Championships-- where Federer won the tournament, beating Djokovic en route-- just were, and that Federer is also in the draw for this tournament, a large chunk of those percentage points should quite obviously also go to Federer, and at least a few points have to go to the remainder of the field (particularly Murray), so I don't see how one could reasonably rate Djokovic's overall odds of victory much higher than 40%.

 

[Zarfot Z]

40% seems about right.

 

[Joseph L. Barrow]

He has the same "stiff" competition at every Masters and Major event. This time minus Nadal. I'd say 40% is low.

Why, yes, and within the last year, he has won:
-2 of 8 Masters Series events played (25%)
-2 of 4 Grand Slams played (50%)
-0 of 1 Year-end Championships played (0%)

All told, he has won 4 out of 13 top-level tournaments played in the last 12 months, or roughly 31%. The estimate that he has a 40% chance of victory is, if anything, generous.

 

[Russeljones]

Why, yes, and within the last year, he has won:
-2 of 8 Masters Series events played (25%)
-2 of 4 Grand Slams played (50%)
-0 of 1 Year-end Championships played (0%)

All told, he has won 2 out of 4 top-level tournaments played in the last 12 months, or 50%. The estimate that he has a 40% chance of victory is, if anything, misleading.

Fixed that for ya

 

[sureshs]

Djokovic will beat the computer

 

[Iron Man]

only 40 ??? lol
and how did it give Roger ? 60 ??

 

[joeri888]

only 40 ??? lol
and how did it give Roger ? 60 ??

Probably around 30.

Unibet puts Djoker at 2.30; Rog at 2.80; Mur at 5.00, so Murray has slightly less than 20% chance, Roger around 35 % and Djoker around 40% according to the bookies. that would leave between 5 and 10 for the field.

 

[roberttennis54]

40% is way too high. In the best out of three format in grass, upsets are far more likely. Plus a lot of patriotic guys will be giving it everything they have. He is not even the favourite for me. I would place him 3rd at the moment behind Federer and Murray. With Nadal out, Murray's place in the draw becomes even more important. Murray will have complete home support unlike at Wimbledon.

 

[Alchemy-Z]

Tsonga!!!!


(I am pulling for Murray as well)

and any of the USA players...it is the Olympics after all

 

[Deleted member 3771]

With Nadal missing , the computer just doubled the chances of the top 3.

 

[Joseph L. Barrow]

Fixed that for ya

The person I quoted referred to "Slams and Masters events," not "Slams exclusively." Besides which, it would be irrational to use Slams alone, since the Olympics will be in best-of-three format excepting for the final, meaning that it is arguably more like a Masters Series tournament than a Grand Slam.

 

[RF-17-GOAT]

I hope he faces Murray in the semis.

 

[Tshooter]

I ran my own model.

Joker 50%
Fed 25%
Field 13%
Murray 10%
Nadal 2%

 

[frinton]

Fixed that for ya

Hence I assume in your world it will still be 2 out of 4 after the Olympics

 

[frinton]

I ran my own model.

I would say:
40% Djoker
50% Fed
40% Murray
30% Tsonga
50% one of the rest of the field
....whoopsy-daisy

 

[Raz11]

According to this statistician(http://heavytopspin.com/2012/07/20/why-more-players-should-have-skipped-the-olympics/#more-802),
Djokovic has about 24% of winning.

 

[ZeroSkid]

According to this statistician(http://heavytopspin.com/2012/07/20/why-more-players-should-have-skipped-the-olympics/#more-802),
Djokovic has about 24% of winning.

and federer has 22%

 

[Feather]

People tend to forget that it's best of three till final. There is no guarantee that Roger or Novak or Andy will reach semi final let alone win the cup. Any guy who plays hot for two sets with will take any of the three.. There won't be any fairy tale comebacks from two sets down like we see in Wimbledon.

It would be better to compare something like Queens or Halle to Olympics tennis as those tournaments are also three sets.

 

[ledwix]

40% is high when you realize how fast odds drop when compounding them. If a guy is a 3 to 1 favorite in his final three matches, he still has only a 42% chance of winning.

 

[TeflonTom]

itt: ppl who dont understand statistics