The 2 places where he is at most risk of losing would be Soderling in R4 and Djokovic in the SF. Ferrer goes in straights, Delpo probably goes down in 4 or possibly close straights. Thiem probably goes down in straights, possibly 4 sets. No matter what Nadal's issues were in 2009, nothing can take away from Soderling playing absolutely monster tennis to beat him. But 2008 Nadal was a different beast. I think Nadal wins here, maybe in 4, but there's a genuine chance it could go to 5.
Wawrinka was playing at a very high level but Nadal matches favourably with him so he probably goes down in close straights or possibly 4 sets. Djokovic 2011 was taken out by Fed in 4 and we know that Nadal is above that level. However, the draw will be taking it's toll by this stage. Again, possibility of it going to 5 but I think Nadal comes out on top. If he gets through Novak, I really don't see Federer stopping him in the final. After all, this is the same Nadal that went to 5 against a GOATing Verdasco and then beat Federer in the final. Even if he is tired, he will put out all the stops to beat Federer. And he will have the mental advantage.
This would probably qualify as the hardest draw in history but I think Nadal 2008 makes it through. If you threw Kuerten and a modernised Borg into the draw, I think he gets taken out but with this draw, Rafa takes the win IMO