Could 2012 be the year that Nadal retires?

[bullfan]

While Nadal's last year was bad in terms of Nadal, he still won a GS, something only one other player won.

Yet, it came at a price, he lost over and over and over to Novak including 2 GSs.

Last year was quite the marketing of Rafa..... Armani, the book, it seemed like the marketing of Rafa was at an all time high. And obviously, he was burning himself up. You just can't try to do it all, and expect to play your best.

Was it a tactical move in order to maximze profits before retiring, or did it just propel him into a place where it's moving him to a downhill spiral?

I remember when folks wrote him out in 2009, but then he came back and had an awesome 2010. Could that happen again in 2012, it's possible. But, it seems that 2012 either makes or breaks him in my opinion.

 

[sureshs]

He just needs 6 more Slams to equal Federer. He will linger around till that happens.

 

[Mike Sams]

He was only 22-23 in 2009 when people were writing him off and that was from knee injuries and personal issues with his parents' divorce. Tennis fans are a fickle bunch and only rate you based on your last performance.:lol:

Now he's got a new rival and is not able to find answers and is resorting to his natural clay game on hardcourt surfaces. Plus he's getting older, has admitted he gets nervous on the court against his rival and apparently now has new issues arising including a problem with his shoulder and getting sick more often during travel and vacationing and losing passion because now he has a new rival who is forcing him to change his game.

Also, I noticed Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko have both badly deteriorated since 2010. Maybe Nadal is getting closer to that point. He's not a young dude anymore. Heading for 26 and probably 28-29 in tennis years. And he's having more concentration lapses similar to Federer and other players as they age.

 

[DjokovicForTheWin]

If he does retire, looks like Fed fans were right all along.

 

[bullfan]

He was only 22-23 in 2009 when people were writing him off and that was from knee injuries and personal issues with his parents' divorce. Tennis fans are a fickle bunch and only rate you based on your last performance.:lol:

Now he's got a new rival and is not able to find answers and is resorting to his natural clay game on hardcourt surfaces. Plus he's getting older, has admitted he gets nervous on the court against his rival and apparently now has new issues arising including a problem with his shoulder and getting sick more often during travel and vacationing and losing passion because now he has a new rival who is forcing him to change his game.

Also, I noticed Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko have both badly deteriorated since 2010. Maybe Nadal is getting closer to that point. He's not a young dude anymore. Heading for 26 and probably 28-29 in tennis years. And he's having more concentration lapses similar to Federer and other players as they age.

Rafa started on the pro tour at an early age, and while he always says that there's no one else he'd like to be, he's constantly said this year, he misses being home, even providing lengths of time he's been away. He's mentioned losing early and being home fishing at the beginning of Wimbledon. Given his career at such a young age, maybe he's feeling a midlife crisis at a much younger age.

 

[bullfan]

He just needs 6 more Slams to equal Federer. He will linger around till that happens.

I can't begin to see Rafa reaching 16 GS. I don't see him thinking that he can do that.

 

[AM95]

ill be really surprised if he retires. his whole aurora of willing his way to win will be diminished because he retired immediately after facing adversity in the form of djokovic.

 

[bullfan]

ill be really surprised if he retires. his whole aurora of willing his way to win will be diminished because he retired immediately after facing adversity in the form of djokovic.

Could you see him getting back to winning and then retiring?

 

[rommil]

I hope not, so we will see how he handles adversity at this stage.

 

[bullfan]

I hope not, so we will see how he handles adversity at this stage.

It's one thing to rise to the challenge, it's another to face it once you lose it. Rafa managed to have success at such a young age. He was called a clay courter, and managed to show us all that he could manage on all surfaces (well except indoor) for all GS.

I'll like to see him claw his way back in 2012, but one has to wonder where his head and heart are at these days.

 

[Sentinel]

If losses to one player can make Rafa retire, then he's hardly the fighter and martyr and saint and messiah and saviour that everyone here makes him to be.

Rogerer Federerer has been humiliated for 2 years (maybe more, i can't even remember) and he's still standing around all year round. Ready to face loss. That's real humility for you, not turning your back at the slightest sign of defeat.

Yes, suresh, he will linger, hoping for Nole to be injured or tire, or retire so he can get a slam then. Or maybe if that doesn't happen soon, he won't.

However, I don't think so low of Rafa. He'll hang on another 2 years at least if he can win a slam each year.

 

[Sentinel]

I hope not, so we will see how he handles adversity at this stage.

Is that a top 100 ATP pro, or someone on the challenger circuit?


I have a neighbor by that name but he's too thin to be the one you are talking about.

 

[bullfan]

If losses to one player can make Rafa retire, then he's hardly the fighter and martyr and saint and messiah and saviour that everyone here makes him to be.

Rogerer Federerer has been humiliated for 2 years (maybe more, i can't even remember) and he's still standing around all year round. Ready to face loss. That's real humility for you, not turning your back at the slightest sign of defeat.

Yes, suresh, he will linger, hoping for Nole to be injured or tire, or retire so he can get a slam then. Or maybe if that doesn't happen soon, he won't.

However, I don't think so low of Rafa. He'll hang on another 2 years at least if he can win a slam each year.

Interesting take, that Rafa can't take a challenge, or he's lost his "persona" as you say. Personally, I haven't seen him as a martyr, saint or messiah except by a small sect here.

 

[Sentinel]

Interesting take, that Rafa can't take a challenge, or he's lost his "persona" as you say. Personally, I haven't seen him as a martyr, saint or messiah except by a small sect here.

read my last line.

it's silly of folk here to think he'll fold up just because of losing to one guy. If his body holds up, so will he.

 

[bullfan]

read my last line.

it's silly of folk here to think he'll fold up just because of losing to one guy. If his body holds up, so will he.

Oh, I wasn't trying to be insulting..... My first sentence didn't seem to convey that obviously.

 

[AM95]

It's one thing to rise to the challenge, it's another to face it once you lose it. Rafa managed to have success at such a young age. He was called a clay courter, and managed to show us all that he could manage on all surfaces (well except indoor) for all GS.

I'll like to see him claw his way back in 2012, but one has to wonder where his head and heart are at these days.

such is the attitude of most nadal fans. you guys are frontrunners to say the very least, and are ready to turn your back against your favorite player when he can't find a way to win against djokovic. pathetic, many of you should be ashamed.

 

[Mike Sams]

Rafa started on the pro tour at an early age, and while he always says that there's no one else he'd like to be, he's constantly said this year, he misses being home, even providing lengths of time he's been away. He's mentioned losing early and being home fishing at the beginning of Wimbledon. Given his career at such a young age, maybe he's feeling a midlife crisis at a much younger age.

I also think he's sick of Tio Toni but is afraid to say anything as it might have repercussions on his career. Nadal may just go through the motions while trying to keep his fans' hopes up into thinking that he's trying really really hard.

 

[Mike Sams]

read my last line.

it's silly of folk here to think he'll fold up just because of losing to one guy. If his body holds up, so will he.

His body holding up alone won't mean he won't still get crushed at the hands of his adversaries on the court. He had to toil for 3 sets to get through an injured Murray in the semifinals of Monte Carlo on clay which is Nadal's most dominant surface. 3 hours it took to get through a Murray who was about to pull out of the event. Luckily for Nadal that it was only his lapdog David Ferrer waiting in the finals as opposed to Djokovic. Imagine if Nadal has to consistently try to go through the likes of any 2 of Federer/Murray/Djokovic. Winning titles even on clay is going to become a very difficult proposition if these guys are coming in form and sensing Nadal is for the taking.

 

[Cup8489]

Everyone keeps talking like Djokovic is going to sweep the majors next year.. the guy who just got eliminated in RR stage of WTF. He's worn himself down.. who says he recovers???

 

[Mike Sams]

Everyone keeps talking like Djokovic is going to sweep the majors next year.. the guy who just got eliminated in RR stage of WTF. He's worn himself down.. who says he recovers???

He and Nadal are both worn out. Which means Murray's time is 2012!!! :twisted:

 

[Sentinel]

Everyone keeps talking like Djokovic is going to sweep the majors next year.. the guy who just got eliminated in RR stage of WTF. He's worn himself down.. who says he recovers???

Before winning AO 2008, remember he had the worst performance at the 2007 WTF.

This means he will sweep the CYGS I think He has enough time to recover.

 

[Sentinel]

He and Nadal are both worn out. Which means Murray's time is 2012!!! :twisted:

Gotta agree, Andy was lookin' fresh as a daisy



:twisted:

 

[Mike Sams]

Gotta agree, Andy was lookin' fresh as a daisy



:twisted:

I see nothing. I hear nothing...:razz:

 

[OrangePower]

I don't see Nadal retiring from lack of motivation or burn-out. He will continue for a few years at least as long as he is physically in good shape.

Having said that it's possible that if his body starts to deteriorate he might call it a day sooner rather than later.

 

[bullfan]

such is the attitude of most nadal fans. you guys are frontrunners to say the very least, and are ready to turn your back against your favorite player when he can't find a way to win against djokovic. pathetic, many of you should be ashamed.

I'm not turning my back on him, and this isn't about Djokovic. Of course, there is the every other year plan that he seems to be on. We'll see if he roars in 2012.

 

[Crisstti]

Rafa started on the pro tour at an early age, and while he always says that there's no one else he'd like to be, he's constantly said this year, he misses being home, even providing lengths of time he's been away. He's mentioned losing early and being home fishing at the beginning of Wimbledon. Given his career at such a young age, maybe he's feeling a midlife crisis at a much younger age.

Well, I think he's said those things before too.

Rafa says constantly how what matters to him is to be "competitive", to feel he can win the big tournaments. I would say he was competitive this year, whatever one might say about his level of play, whether he's declining or not...

 

[Rjtennis]

Well i definetly have seen enough of him picking his back side then touching hisn face. I doubt he will retire in 2012 though.

 

[Xizel]

What he needs is strategy and tactic coaching from TT forums. :twisted::twisted:

 

[swfh]

Nadal won't retire. If anything, as his knees start to go, he will start to play like the William's sisters. Only in majors.

 

[1970CRBase]

I don't know, he looked truly awful at WTF, not just his play but his whole general look and demeanour, almost like he was sick or something.

 

[Biscuitmcgriddleson]

Nadal won't retire. If anything, as his knees start to go, he will start to play like the William's sisters. Only in majors.

Which won't help his style of needing matches to gain confidence and get his game in sync.

 

[TennisFan3]

Weird thread.

Why should Nadal retire next year? He will probably play as long as he is in top 10 or top 15.
Do you think Nadal will earn anywhere close to the money he is making, when he retires? Even if he falls down in rankings, the endorsements will have enough $$ to last 2-3 yrs.

Did Federer retire after he dropped out of top 2 and didn't win a slam this year? That's what I see from Nadal in 2012. He will be in top 5, but wont win a slam.

W.r.t retirement the question is: How long will Nadal remain in the top 10/15.
Answer: For the next 2 to 3 years. After that he will retire..

 

[passive_aggressive]

Nah, for a start, as **** as Nadal has been playing, he is a lock for every GS final in 2012 - that is the easy part.

Bad news for him is that Djokovic is also ALMOST a lock for every slam final in 2012. I say 'almost' because Federer will be in the semi's against him, and may have one or two wins left against Djoker.

So Nadal is a lock for every GS final in 2012, if he gets Djoker in the final he at least has a fighting chance of winning, if he faces Federer, he is guaranteed the win - so why would he retire? He only needs 7 more slams, remember, to be the GOAT.

 

[joeri888]

I hope guys like Tsonga can maybe close the gap on the top guys, Murray as well, and Federer's talent and serve will always give him a shot at something. Let's not forget about JMDP either, he won a set against Nadal at WIMBLEDON, than he can do some serious damage at the US Open.

AO will tell us a lot more than this tournament.

 

[mistik]

If he doesnt have career threatining injury he wont retire.All the players have the same risk having a terrible or dissapointing year.Pressure vise it wont be all that easy for Djokovic to repeat this year.Again pressure vise Murray desperate to win GS.At this point in his career Nadal goal to have 1 more great year.He is going to have his chances if not injured.I think his main rivals Djoko and Murray have more pressure on their shoulders.Nadal is already the best clay court player of all time with a career slam and Olympic Gold adn DC titles.For sure he wants it more but still he can retire with peace if things not go well.The other player who can retire with peace is also Fed.Djoko and Murray still many to prove.

 

[Magnus]

I can't begin to see Rafa reaching 16 GS. I don't see him thinking that he can do that.

As much as I would hate seeing it, it will happen.

 

[Sentinel]

Nah, for a start, as **** as Nadal has been playing, he is a lock for every GS final in 2012 - that is the easy part.

Bad news for him is that Djokovic is also ALMOST a lock for every slam final in 2012. I say 'almost' because Federer will be in the semi's against him, and may have one or two wins left against Djoker.

So Nadal is a lock for every GS final in 2012, if he gets Djoker in the final he at least has a fighting chance of winning, if he faces Federer, he is guaranteed the win - so why would he retire? He only needs 7 more slams, remember, to be the GOAT.

Once he reaches 16 then other things have to be counted. weeks at #1, Masters titles and WTF's.

(I know you said 7 meaning 17.)

 

[nadalwon2012]

While Nadal's last year was bad in terms of Nadal, he still won a GS, something only one other player won.

Yet, it came at a price, he lost over and over and over to Novak including 2 GSs.

Last year was quite the marketing of Rafa..... Armani, the book, it seemed like the marketing of Rafa was at an all time high. And obviously, he was burning himself up. You just can't try to do it all, and expect to play your best.

Was it a tactical move in order to maximze profits before retiring, or did it just propel him into a place where it's moving him to a downhill spiral?

I remember when folks wrote him out in 2009, but then he came back and had an awesome 2010. Could that happen again in 2012, it's possible. But, it seems that 2012 either makes or breaks him in my opinion.

I predict Nadal will retire in 2012 if he wins the Calendar Year Grand Slam. If he doesn't win the Calendar Year Grand Slam in 2012 he will not retire.

 

[mistik]

As much as I would hate seeing it, it will happen.

I dont think it will happen as well.In my book he lost his chance back in 2009.Fed was a desperate man after 2009 AO final.If not Rafa injured he wouldnt win RG ( for sure) it would also be very diffcult for him in Wimbledon as well.The way he played against Roddcik i dont see him beating Nadal as well.If not for that year Nadal would probably already with 12 or 13 majors he would be favaurite for 2010 AO as well.fed with 14 majors at most.

 

[SLD76]

The question isnt whether Rafa the player will retire in 2012.

The better question is, will his game retire?

Meaning, is this truly an off year like 09, or the beginning of a steep, Hewitt-like decline.

The major difference between 09 and '11 is that in 09 rafa was injured( mentally and physically, mentally from losing at RG- and no, I dont think he was as injured as he made out that tourny, but injured enough to lose badly to Soderling)., had family and personal issues and maybe was a tad burnt out.

This year, Rafa has had none of that to contend with, he had his most consistent season ever, made 8 straight finals on 3 different surfaces. The only thing in his way was a Djoker in the form of his life. The losses to Djoker this year have taken something out of him mentally . All that grinding, all that effort...just to lose. Not to mention the way those two play each other, I swear they shave 6 months from each other's careers. Look at how Djoker's body has completely broken down after that USO final!

So, is it lack of confidence from tough loses, losing his W crown and #1 ranking? Is it the start of burnout? He said in a quote he felt like he has played 100 years, and we know grinders tend to have success early and then get mentally and physically spent young ( hewitt, courier, wilander etc).


If its just a mental decline/burnout....I think he can recover. Especially if Djoker doesnt recover physically which is big possibility with this short offseason. But if he is at the precipice of his physical decline, if he has truly lost a step( and even eagle-eyed nadal fans have said that he is less imposing, less explosive and less dominating on clay than he has ever been...stiull winning of course, but not as much the physical beast as in past years)....it could be a long 2012.
2010 for Rafa was comparable to Fed's 2006.
2011 rafa was like Fed's 2008. So many crushing losses ( despite being unnaturally consistent) but did secure his beloved FO crown like Fed did his USO.

So, will 2012 be like Fed's 2009 or more like Fed's 2011? Honestly, it depends on what happens to Djoker.

 

[passive_aggressive]

I predict Nadal will retire in 2012 if he wins the Calendar Year Grand Slam. If he doesn't win the Calendar Year Grand Slam in 2012 he will not retire.

I am far sighted enough to see that it is likely that Nadal will win the CYGS. People are always too quick to diss based on recent form. Nadal has won many grand slams before, therefore he will find it easy to add to his total. Murray has never won a GS before, therefore he never will.

Seriously, even if Nadal lost at the first round of every tournament in 2011, and Murray reached the finals of every tournament in 2011, I would pick Nadal to win the CYGS in 2012.

But, when he does win the CYGS in 2012, why would he retire 3 slams short of being the GOAT?

 

[nadalwon2012]

I am far sighted enough to see that it is likely that Nadal will win the CYGS. People are always too quick to diss based on recent form. Nadal has won many grand slams before, therefore he will find it easy to add to his total. Murray has never won a GS before, therefore he never will.

Seriously, even if Nadal lost at the first round of every tournament in 2011, and Murray reached the finals of every tournament in 2011, I would pick Nadal to win the CYGS in 2012.

But, when he does win the CYGS in 2012, why would he retire 3 slams short of being the GOAT?

Because Federer doesn't matter to him.....

 

[nadalwon2012]

The biggest question I have is 'when will Nadal miss a grand slam final?' He as made 6 of the last 7 slam finals, and it took a muscle tear at the Australian Open to stop him.

 

[tennis_pro]

The biggest question I have is 'when will Nadal miss a grand slam final?' He as made 6 of the last 7 slam finals, and it took a muscle tear at the Australian Open to stop him.

oh he can make as many GS finals as he wants as long as he's not winning any

 

[mistik]

The question isnt whether Rafa the player will retire in 2012.

The better question is, will his game retire?

Meaning, is this truly an off year like 09, or the beginning of a steep, Hewitt-like decline.

The major difference between 09 and '11 is that in 09 rafa was injured( mentally and physically, mentally from losing at RG- and no, I dont think he was as injured as he made out that tourny, but injured enough to lose badly to Soderling)., had family and personal issues and maybe was a tad burnt out.

This year, Rafa has had none of that to contend with, he had his most consistent season ever, made 8 straight finals on 3 different surfaces. The only thing in his way was a Djoker in the form of his life. The losses to Djoker this year have taken something out of him mentally . All that grinding, all that effort...just to lose. Not to mention the way those two play each other, I swear they shave 6 months from each other's careers. Look at how Djoker's body has completely broken down after that USO final!

So, is it lack of confidence from tough loses, losing his W crown and #1 ranking? Is it the start of burnout? He said in a quote he felt like he has played 100 years, and we know grinders tend to have success early and then get mentally and physically spent young ( hewitt, courier, wilander etc).


If its just a mental decline/burnout....I think he can recover. Especially if Djoker doesnt recover physically which is big possibility with this short offseason. But if he is at the precipice of his physical decline, if he has truly lost a step( and even eagle-eyed nadal fans have said that he is less imposing, less explosive and less dominating on clay than he has ever been...stiull winning of course, but not as much the physical beast as in past years)....it could be a long 2012.
2010 for Rafa was comparable to Fed's 2006.
2011 rafa was like Fed's 2008. So many crushing losses ( despite being unnaturally consistent) but did secure his beloved FO crown like Fed did his USO.

So, will 2012 be like Fed's 2009 or more like Fed's 2011? Honestly, it depends on what happens to Djoker.

To be honest i agree with you.The only thing i see different is Djoko made things worse for him,but he was already not playing his best regardless of Djoko.In my mind the only big tournument Rafa was lost when he was playing as well as last year was this years Wimbledon.I would lie to say that if he wasnt as good on Wimbledon as well as last year.His performance on RG and Us open was weaker compare to 2010.Wimbledon final probably hurt him most.Which was the worst major final he has ever played.

 

[Sentinel]

I am far sighted enough to see that it is likely that Nadal will win the CYGS. People are always too quick to diss based on recent form. Nadal has won many grand slams before, therefore he will find it easy to add to his total. Murray has never won a GS before, therefore he never will.

Seriously, even if Nadal lost at the first round of every tournament in 2011, and Murray reached the finals of every tournament in 2011, I would pick Nadal to win the CYGS in 2012.

But, when he does win the CYGS in 2012, why would he retire 3 slams short of being the GOAT?

Excellent points all, especially last.

nadalwon2012, you have to think like a champion, not someone easily satisfied, or easily discouraged. Nadal is another breed altogether.

 

[passive_aggressive]

Exactly. Nadal still has a good 5 years left of good tennis, maybe not his prime, but he doesn't need to be anywhere near his best to sleepwalk to GS finals anyway. I'd pick him to win any GS no matter how terribly he is playing.

He has made 6 of the last 7 GS finals - it is pure stupidity to suggest he won't make 100% of the next 25 GS finals.

Now considering the worst case scenario that Djokovic (the only guy who can stop Nadal in a GS final) makes 25 of the next 25 GS finals as well, at worst, Nadal can win only half of those finals, meaning he ends his career with 22 - 23 slams.

At best, Nadal will win all 25 of those finals, and will end his career with 35 slams.

EDIT: sorry, got carried away and presumed Cinci would count as the 5th slam in a year.

Worst case scenario, Nadal ends with 20 slams (loses half of the next 20 GS finals to Djokovic), best case scenario he ends with 30 slams (wins all of his next 20 GS finals).

 

[nadalwon2012]

Excellent points all, especially last.

nadalwon2012, you have to think like a champion, not someone easily satisfied, or easily discouraged. Nadal is another breed altogether.

When did I imply Nadal was easily discouraged? :lol:

And regarding my comment about Nadal winning 4 slams in 2012 and retiring, I'm trying to show that Nadal would more likely retire when he's winning than retire when he's losing. The more Nadal loses the more eager he is to fight, so you know he won't retire because of a bad year.

 

[passive_aggressive]

When did I imply Nadal was easily discouraged? :lol:

And regarding my comment about Nadal winning 4 slams in 2012 and retiring, I'm trying to show that Nadal would more likely retire when he's winning than retire when he's losing. The more Nadal loses the more eager he is to fight, so you know he won't retire because of a bad year.

Yes, but one could say the more Nadal loses to Djokovic, the more he would be motivated to play better and beat him (as well as others). This hasn't yet proven to be the case.

What is so magical about the turning of 2011 to 2012? What is so special about another year starting that would make Nadal suddenly turn things around? Seems arbitrary to me for you to set the turning point for Nadal to start playing better as the start of a year - when it could (should) have been at any point during THIS year.

His off-season is, in fact, likely to be even shorter than the 6 weeks he took off before the WTF. You think the mere fact that Nadal's calendar will say 2012 instead of 2011 will prompt him to suddenly start playing the tennis of his life?

I do agree with you that Nadal will win the calendar slam in 2012 - but I think he will accomplish it playing worse tennis than he played at the WTF. All of his opponents will choke against him and he will face Federer in a few finals.

 

[nadalwon2012]

All of his opponents will choke against him and he will face Federer in a few finals.

That would be good to see. I would rather Nadal beats Federer than Djokovic. A win over the GOAT will always be more valuable than a win over Djokovic.