Could 2012 be the year that Nadal retires?

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Exactly. Nadal still has a good 5 years left of good tennis, maybe not his prime, but he doesn't need to be anywhere near his best to sleepwalk to GS finals anyway. I'd pick him to win any GS no matter how terribly he is playing.

He has made 6 of the last 7 GS finals - it is pure stupidity to suggest he won't make 100% of the next 25 GS finals.

Now considering the worst case scenario that Djokovic (the only guy who can stop Nadal in a GS final) makes 25 of the next 25 GS finals as well, at worst, Nadal can win only half of those finals, meaning he ends his career with 22 - 23 slams.

At best, Nadal will win all 25 of those finals, and will end his career with 35 slams.

EDIT: sorry, got carried away and presumed Cinci would count as the 5th slam in a year.

Worst case scenario, Nadal ends with 20 slams (loses half of the next 20 GS finals to Djokovic), best case scenario he ends with 30 slams (wins all of his next 20 GS finals).
Excellent post.

So you have Nadal pegged at hangin up his racket with between 20 to 35 slams. Good math, overall.
 
C

celoft

Guest
Don't know about retirement, but 2012 could be the last year Nadal wins a slam.

Borg, Sampras and Federer all won at least a slam for 8 years in a row.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
To be honest i agree with you.The only thing i see different is Djoko made things worse for him,but he was already not playing his best regardless of Djoko.In my mind the only big tournument Rafa was lost when he was playing as well as last year was this years Wimbledon.I would lie to say that if he wasnt as good on Wimbledon as well as last year.His performance on RG and Us open was weaker compare to 2010.Wimbledon final probably hurt him most.Which was the worst major final he has ever played.
Yes, 91% first serves showed he was playing horribly. :lol: Face it, he played as well as he ever could but the other guy played in god mode. Nadal's 2008 Wimbledon performance is overrated by the way. He was in all sorts of trouble against a meek Federer. The only reason Nadal shined is because Federer has the worst BP conversion on the tour. 1 for 12 in the final that day. Djokovic on the other hand is by far superior on BPs and he didn't let Nadal off the hook the way Federer tends to.
Based on stats, Nadal actually played as good or better in the 2011 Wimbledon final than he did in the 2008 Wimbledon final. Djokovic just has his number unfortunately.:(
 

Hood_Man

Legend
Nadal will be pushing for a 7th French Open in 2012 I'm sure.


Thing is... I don't think he's been the same since 2009. When he lost in that French Open it wouldn't have been all bad. Sure he was devastated, sure his pride had taken a huge knock, and sure he was probably worried about how his body would hold out as well.

BUT... for the first time since 2004 I guess, he had time off to spend with his family and friends for his birthday. It's something we mere mortals take for granted.

That was a big taste of freedom for a young man who really hasn't had it before.

Depending on how he does next year though, I can see him retiring in 2013.
 
Nadal will at the very least reach all slam finals in 2012.

Djokovic's body HAS been broken down pretty badly and may not necessarily be a threat to Nadal next year.

Now, obviously, Djokovic will reach all the slam finals in 2012 as well, but Rafa will probably beat him in all those slam finals.
 
Everyone has such little confidence in these top pros. Nadal will be back and playing well next year, just wait. Remember what happened to Federer after 2008. All of this is coming from a Federer fan. They all bounce back. Having some time off does incredible things to their motivation.
 

TennisLovaLova

Hall of Fame
Nadal will at the very least reach all slam finals in 2012.

Djokovic's body HAS been broken down pretty badly and may not necessarily be a threat to Nadal next year.

Now, obviously, Djokovic will reach all the slam finals in 2012 as well, but Rafa will probably beat him in all those slam finals.
Funny post please continue
 

Crisstti

Legend
When did I imply Nadal was easily discouraged? :lol:

And regarding my comment about Nadal winning 4 slams in 2012 and retiring, I'm trying to show that Nadal would more likely retire when he's winning than retire when he's losing. The more Nadal loses the more eager he is to fight, so you know he won't retire because of a bad year.
I'm not so sure about that. I would think it's more likely the opposite is the case.

Nadal will be pushing for a 7th French Open in 2012 I'm sure.

Thing is... I don't think he's been the same since 2009. When he lost in that French Open it wouldn't have been all bad. Sure he was devastated, sure his pride had taken a huge knock, and sure he was probably worried about how his body would hold out as well.

BUT... for the first time since 2004 I guess, he had time off to spend with his family and friends for his birthday. It's something we mere mortals take for granted.

That was a big taste of freedom for a young man who really hasn't had it before.

Depending on how he does next year though, I can see him retiring in 2013.
Good point...
 

Crisstti

Legend
I don't know, he looked truly awful at WTF, not just his play but his whole general look and demeanour, almost like he was sick or something.
Well, he was sick, at least during one of the matches.

I dont think it will happen as well.In my book he lost his chance back in 2009.Fed was a desperate man after 2009 AO final.If not Rafa injured he wouldnt win RG ( for sure) it would also be very diffcult for him in Wimbledon as well.The way he played against Roddcik i dont see him beating Nadal as well.If not for that year Nadal would probably already with 12 or 13 majors he would be favaurite for 2010 AO as well.fed with 14 majors at most.
Agree, pretty much. It's very difficult now.
 

Homeboy Hotel

Hall of Fame
Sheer opportunism.

He wont retire yet, even if his results start declining he's making a sh/t load of money, loves travelling, loves the fame and fans, think he can get back on top.

To himself, it would be sheer humiliation if he was to retire BEFORE Federer. 2014...2015 the earliest for him, I would say.
 
N

nikdom

Guest
Well, a man can hope. The sooner the better - can't stand his idiotic fans around these forums.
 

namelessone

Legend
Well, a man can hope. The sooner the better - can't stand his idiotic fans around these forums.
You want a living legend out of the game as soon as possible. Some tennis fan.
And all so you can feel better in a space that doesn't really matter, cyberspace.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Likewise....Nadal winning 3 or 4 slams next year should be enough to knock you and plenty more nadal-haters out of cyberspace for life :D
Likewise....Djokovic winning 3 or 4 slams next year should finally separate real Nadal fans from glory hunters. There will be 3 left.
 

namelessone

Legend
Likewise....Djokovic winning 3 or 4 slams next year should finally separate real Nadal fans from glory hunters. There will be 3 left.
And who are these mysterious 3?

Gee,I hope I'm among them. It would suck to know that I've been a gloryhunter since 2004 and did not know it.
 
Likewise....Djokovic winning 3 or 4 slams next year should finally separate real Nadal fans from glory hunters. There will be 3 left.
LOL a glory hunter. Yep a glory hunter would be posting under a Nadal username in 2011....even after Nadal lost to Djokovic for the 6th time and then got hammered by Federer at the World Tour Finals.....right.....
 

Crisstti

Legend
Sheer opportunism.

He wont retire yet, even if his results start declining he's making a sh/t load of money, loves travelling, loves the fame and fans, think he can get back on top.

To himself, it would be sheer humiliation if he was to retire BEFORE Federer. 2014...2015 the earliest for him, I would say.
I doubt Rafa loves to travel. If anything, he seems to hate being away from his family and friends.
 

TopFH

Hall of Fame
I am far sighted enough to see that it is likely that Nadal will win the CYGS. People are always too quick to diss based on recent form. Nadal has won many grand slams before, therefore he will find it easy to add to his total. Murray has never won a GS before, therefore he never will.
According to you logic: Since Fed has more slams than Nadal, it will be easy for him to keep that lead.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
LOL a glory hunter. Yep a glory hunter would be posting under a Nadal username in 2011....even after Nadal lost to Djokovic for the 6th time and then got hammered by Federer at the World Tour Finals.....right.....
You're still so confident when Nadal is the current French Open champion. Let's see what you do when your hero goes 2 full years slamless.
 

tusharlovesrafa

Hall of Fame
If losses to one player can make Rafa retire, then he's hardly the fighter and martyr and saint and messiah and saviour that everyone here makes him to be.

Rogerer Federerer has been humiliated for 2 years (maybe more, i can't even remember) and he's still standing around all year round. Ready to face loss. That's real humility for you, not turning your back at the slightest sign of defeat.

Yes, suresh, he will linger, hoping for Nole to be injured or tire, or retire so he can get a slam then. Or maybe if that doesn't happen soon, he won't.

However, I don't think so low of Rafa. He'll hang on another 2 years at least if he can win a slam each year.
After ages sentinel posts are spewing venom as it used to...Keep this form going, dude..
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
After ages sentinel posts are spewing venom as it used to...Keep this form going, dude..
Didnt read the last line, did you?. The first part was sarcasm towards the pessimistic rafans.

I was remembering you the other day. Wherer have you been, How did your exams go ? I am just having digs at some Nadfans, that's all :D
 

ViscaB

Hall of Fame
Maybe if he goes slam-less for a year like Federer did this year will he retire.

He's not going to retire in a year in which he won his beloved FO, reached many finals and still has the option to win another trophy for his country.
 

ViscaB

Hall of Fame
I doubt Rafa loves to travel. If anything, he seems to hate being away from his family and friends.
I think they are all tired of that element. Who loves traveling and staying in hotels. I live half a world away from my home country and at times that sucks.

The key is to generate a big entourage with family and friends. Like most of the players do. Like Fed with his wife and kids traveling with his private jet. You have to think what happens when the kids need to go to school.
 
A hint of desperation about this thread. The same posters probably had a thread like this in 2009 :lol: and we know what happened after that :lol:
 

syc23

Professional
Can see Rafa playing until 30-32. However, if Federer has a stellar 2012 and adds to his 16GS then surely for Rafa, that will be out of reach and could be the demotivating factor in speeding up his retirement.

Victory at Roland Garros is crucial to keep Nadal motivated to continue - if Federer and Djoko wrestle the RG title off Rafa, then the wheels might come off.

Murray might be in with a shout to get to more GS finals as he will always be on Rafa's side of the draw so he could benefit from a declining Nadal.

We shall see. it's going to be an interesting 2012.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
I hope Rafa doesn't retire. We'll be left wondering whether he would have reached 18 or 20 or more slams had he kept enthralling us with his majestic game.
 

tusharlovesrafa

Hall of Fame
Didnt read the last line, did you?. The first part was sarcasm towards the pessimistic rafans.

I was remembering you the other day. Wherer have you been, How did your exams go ? I am just having digs at some Nadfans, that's all :D
My exams went very bad..I have not reagined my lost form..I need to keep trying..find solutions..i tried my best..

I was missing u too..after all you were the one that pointed out how bad my english is..Missed u dear...:twisted:
YOu may be old physically but u have a heart of a dude..:twisted:
 
Can see Rafa playing until 30-32. However, if Federer has a stellar 2012 and adds to his 16GS then surely for Rafa, that will be out of reach and could be the demotivating factor in speeding up his retirement.

Victory at Roland Garros is crucial to keep Nadal motivated to continue - if Federer and Djoko wrestle the RG title off Rafa, then the wheels might come off.

Murray might be in with a shout to get to more GS finals as he will always be on Rafa's side of the draw so he could benefit from a declining Nadal.

We shall see. it's going to be an interesting 2012.
Federer won the 2010 World Tour Finals, and he did it in more impressive fashion than this year (this year he almost lost to Tsonga twice, and Fish). Doesn't seem to help him with his slams, no slams in 2011.

Nadal only won 6 less matches than Djokovic this year. And Nadal has the best tv ads by far http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTVNeA6L0nM The song in this ad is literally my favorite song of 2011.
 
I'm thinking that whoever has a good Davis Cup final at the end of the year (Rafa/Delpo) and actually hoists the cup is going to be a major contender for grand slams next year. It's such a big confidence boost and it definitely is what Rafa needs right now.
 

Mike Sams

G.O.A.T.
Federer won the 2010 World Tour Finals, and he did it in more impressive fashion than this year (this year he almost lost to Tsonga twice, and Fish). Doesn't seem to help him with his slams, no slams in 2011.

Nadal only won 6 less matches than Djokovic this year. And Nadal has the best tv ads by far http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTVNeA6L0nM The song in this ad is literally my favorite song of 2011.
Going 3 sets doesn't mean Federer almost lost, *******. :lol:
 
I think Nadal has the next 2 years to win slams. Winning 16 is a stretch...would need Djokovic to be interfered with/go down with injury in order for that to happen.

After that...just seems highly unlikely to me. The "more than 8 years after first GS" mark seems like a good indicator for major decline when I look back through the big names.
 
N

nikdom

Guest
My exams went very bad..I have not reagined my lost form..I need to keep trying..find solutions..i tried my best..

I was missing u too..after all you were the one that pointed out how bad my english is..Missed u dear...:twisted:
YOu may be old physically but u have a heart of a dude
..:twisted:
wtf?


Lol. This guy is pure comedy gold.
 
I think Nadal has the next 2 years to win slams. Winning 16 is a stretch...would need Djokovic to be interfered with/go down with injury in order for that to happen.

After that...just seems highly unlikely to me. The "more than 8 years after first GS" mark seems like a good indicator for major decline when I look back through the big names.
The way Nadal is on clay, looks like Djokovic is the only player who knows how handle Nadal's topspin on clay. If Djokovic can't stop Nadal at Roland Garros, the odds are Nadal will be winning Roland Garros into his 30s. Sure somebody else may come along, but let's not forget that most players of this generation and probably next generation are hardcourt players. Tomic is no claycourt, that is for sure. So even if Nadal becomes 100% reliant on Roland Garros to rack up slams, he will continue to win it and probably finish with around 10 Roland Garros titles, and definitely 16+ slams (because he is still a big thread at hardcourt slams and Wimbledon, so should win at least a couple more of non-clay slams).
 

SLD76

G.O.A.T.
The way Nadal is on clay, looks like Djokovic is the only player who knows how handle Nadal's topspin on clay. If Djokovic can't stop Nadal at Roland Garros, the odds are Nadal will be winning Roland Garros into his 30s. Sure somebody else may come along, but let's not forget that most players of this generation and probably next generation are hardcourt players. Tomic is no claycourt, that is for sure. So even if Nadal becomes 100% reliant on Roland Garros to rack up slams, he will continue to win it and probably finish with around 10 Roland Garros titles, and definitely 16+ slams (because he is still a big thread at hardcourt slams and Wimbledon, so should win at least a couple more of non-clay slams).

this assuming of course that

a) nadal doesnt experience any physical/mental decline

b) has no injury

c) that destroying juan monaco is a good barometer of where his game is at the moment.

I will give him the fact that he destroyed gasquet on clay after USO. he is a pretty good clay court player.
 
Top