Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Chung - AO 2018 SF

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Here are cumulative stats for Federer and Chung, for the first five rounds of AO18.
  • Federer is better overall.
  • Federer is better on serve.
  • Chung is a little better on return (broken 32% of times vs. 25% for Federer) - however when you correct for the quality of their opponents' serving strength, they are about similiar (both outperformed the tour by 4-5 p.p. vs. their respective opponents)
No head to head.

lVBTPZG.png

IFRG4h6.png
 
Last edited:
see, @Gary Duane :

fed has even more % of returns put back in play than Chung. (this is not to say FEderer has been returning better than Chung, of course)

its not his return per se that was the problem ...just him not playing that well after the return in the return games.
 
see, @Gary Duane :

fed has even more % of returns put back in play than Chung.

its not his return per se that was the problem ...just him not playing that well after the return in the return games.

read: him strategically saving effort. look at the distribution of his sets. too many of them are clustered in the middle bucket to be random chance
 
Actually shocked that Chung's serve numbers are what they are, but he has faced a bunch of not great returners and it looked very mediocre against Djokovic who could not punish it to the fullest extent with his BP performance.

its fine given his ground game.
He served worse vs djoko than he did vs Zverev and Sandgren as well. (those are his 3 matches that I saw)
 
read: him strategically saving effort. look at the distribution of his sets. too many of them are clustered in the middle bucket to be random chance

yeah, he wasn't going full throttle, which was fine in the first 3 matches since he played well enough. Just not impressed in the 4th match.
All good now with the level in the berdych match :)
 
Thanks for doing the excellent rundown @falstaff78

All things considered, Fed really should handle this comfortably. Only potential problem is the novelty factor: Fed doesn't know much about Chung's game, and top players tend to be more upset prone when that's the case. Chung might inspired and play like he has nothing to lose.

Plus according to some, the spirit of Djokovic lives on in him.:(
 
I think we now have to live with the fact that Federer's level dropped in 2018. He hasn't looked quite as fast or agile as last year, but is relying heavily now on his skills and tennis IQ to beat opponents. I was expecting him to raise his level in the last 2 matches, but that never really happened. I guess he will have to engage into a dog fight at some point in the remaining matches. Chung will retrieve a lot of balls, and Federer has to resort to all his trick to put him off balance. I think Cilic will be his opponent in the final, and it will be a tough one where he will have to extract every bit of whatever he has inside him.
 
I think we now have to live with the fact that Federer's level dropped in 2018. He hasn't looked quite as fast or agile as last year, but is relying heavily now on his skills and tennis IQ to beat opponents. I was expecting him to raise his level in the last 2 matches, but that never really happened. I guess he will have to engage into a dog fight at some point in the remaining matches. Chung will retrieve a lot of balls, and Federer has to resort to all his trick to put him off balance. I think Cilic will be his opponent in the final, and it will be a tough one where he will have to extract every bit of whatever he has inside him.

Agree ONE HUNDRED PERCENT with first two sentences. That is EXACTLY what I thought, watching him from the first round up till now. And why would his body be where it was last year? The guy is 36 yo for crying out loud! And using Tennis IQ is exactly how he won that match, and he also made a couple of courageous decisions (bh dtl down set point in the first, second serve ace out wide 3-3 30-30 in second) - but I also think, while the moment is not what it was last year, the ball striking moving to the forehand corner really picked up. He will have confidence going forward from this match with berdy.

Now it’s all about managing the recovery between match(es), and getting a strong start out of the blocks.

He’s going to have to outcompete the other guy(s), which is what he hasn’t always had to do in the past, but it’s exactly what he did to Berdych in the quarters.
 
Thanks for this.

The question with Fed's low break %, if he's deliberately holding back against players he knows he can beat.

Yes i agree. I can offer two pieces of evidence.

1) his victory margins in sets are hugely skewed to the middle. 9 out of 15 sets ended 6-3 or 6-4. ie he couldn't be bothered to grind out more breaks.

2) he is actually putting more returns in play than Chung (71% v. 68%), but winning fewer return points (39% v. 43%). This can only be because he is being tactical about when to hustle
 
After seeing Fed tonight against Berdych, I’ll be very surprised if Federer so much as loses a set against Chung.

All I've seen of Chung at the AO is highlights against Djokovic and the match against Sandgren. Maybe not enough to comment, but ...
I like his game, but not enough to think he has a shot against Federer if he plays the way he did against those two.
I really thought Berdych had the best chane to take out Federer, the way the draw opened up.
 
Yes i agree. I can offer two pieces of evidence.

1) his victory margins in sets are hugely skewed to the middle. 9 out of 15 sets ended 6-3 or 6-4. ie he couldn't be bothered to grind out more breaks.

2) he is actually putting more returns in play than Chung (71% v. 68%), but winning fewer return points (39% v. 43%). This can only be because he is being tactical about when to hustle

When he is up a break, Roger usually goes for really quick points, always looking for a return winner, or a winner at his second shot.

When he has no break, he tries to play a little longer, therefore taking less risk, and waiting for his opponent to make an error.
 
The thing about stats is that it doesn't capture the percentage of effort exerted. Many have mentioned that Federer didn't look like he was putting in full effort in the earlier rounds - basically putting in enough effort to win efficiently. That's something that you can pull off if you have the experience. I think that a lot of the younger players put in a higher percentage of maximum effort, especially the ball bashers. Maybe Chung too.
 
If you just looked at the stats and didn't know the career of either player, it would look very, very close. But Fed has another gear that Chung has never experienced and doesn't possess himself. That's an intangible no stat can address. Also the pressure factor. Roger has been in how many slam semis? That will also count for a lot, as well as the crowd being 95-5 on Roger's side (if not more).
 
If you just looked at the stats and didn't know the career of either player, it would look very, very close. But Fed has another gear that Chung has never experienced and doesn't possess himself. That's an intangible no stat can address. Also the pressure factor. Roger has been in how many slam semis? That will also count for a lot, as well as the crowd being 95-5 on Roger's side (if not more).

There's also the strategic MTO.
 
see, @Gary Duane :

fed has even more % of returns put back in play than Chung. (this is not to say FEderer has been returning better than Chung, of course)

its not his return per se that was the problem ...just him not playing that well after the return in the return games.
I think last night his conversion of BPs was OK. Actually, excellent: 4/8. Hard to complain about return game after the first return with that stat. I don't know the exact number of return games he played. I suck at that computation. But with 4 breaks, the return game% stat should be more than OK.

I'm assuming that the usual will take place, that % of return points and % of converted BPs will be close to the same over the season, but you can't tell anything from one match. Fastest serve yesterday was 124, which seems a little low. If that is correct. I've never seen a match where he didn't serve over 200k at least once. 5 DFs is very high in a match for him.

We don't get stats from the ATP until a major is finished, so I'll look forward to eyeballing them at the end of the AO.

I'm mostly worried about the return game, and to me it look good last night. If anything, the serve was weaker than usual. Weird errors in set #1, so the obvious thing is that he didn't fully come alive until the break, at the end of set 1, and then the TB.

My overall impression was that he looked a bit flat in the last two matches, at the beginning. I hope that will pick up in the SF.
 
I think last night his conversion of BPs was OK. Actually, excellent: 4/8. Hard to complain about return game after the first return with that stat. I don't know the exact number of return games he played. I suck at that computation. But with 4 breaks, the return game% stat should be more than OK.

I'm assuming that the usual will take place, that % of return points and % of converted BPs will be close to the same over the season, but you can't tell anything from one match. .

We don't get stats from the ATP until a major is finished, so I'll look forward to eyeballing them at the end of the AO.

Its not that tough.

1. If its a TB, leave the one game from the TB. its 6 return games each.
2. If not, check the total number of games in the set.

a) if it is an even number, divide by 2.
b) if it is odd, check the difference in number of breaks.

if 2*difference in number of breaks < difference in games, that means winner of the set has served one more game than the loser of the set
if 2*difference in number of breaks > difference in games, that means loser of the set has served one more game than the winner of the set.

for example, it is a 6-3 set, with one break for the winner, that means winner has served 5 games and the loser 4 games.
if it is a 6-1 set, with 3 breaks for the winner, that means the winner has served 3 games and loser has served 4 games.

vs Berdych, Fed broke in 4 of the 15 return games.

Fastest serve yesterday was 124, which seems a little low. If that is correct. I've never seen a match where he didn't serve over 200k at least once. 5 DFs is very high in a match for him

I'm mostly worried about the return game, and to me it look good last night. If anything, the serve was weaker than usual. Weird errors in set #1, so the obvious thing is that he didn't fully come alive until the break, at the end of set 1, and then the TB.

My overall impression was that he looked a bit flat in the last two matches, at the beginning. I hope that will pick up in the SF.

maybe, the beginning part could be excused as transitioning from night to day (vs fuscovics) and day to night (berdych). He started off well enough in the 1st 3 matches, IIRC.

Serve was fine. Served at 63%. Won 83% of first serves and 53% on the 2nd serves.
4 of the 5 DFs were in the first set.
 
Last edited:
Actually shocked that Chung's serve numbers are what they are, but he has faced a bunch of not great returners and it looked very mediocre against Djokovic who could not punish it to the fullest extent with his BP performance.
Looks like wishful thinking.:rolleyes: With those serve numbers, looks like Chung's speed will result in ravaging toaster burns to the derriere of one Fed as he exits the building in straight sets.:D
 
The thing about stats is that it doesn't capture the percentage of effort exerted

If you just looked at the stats and didn't know the career of either player, it would look very, very close.

If you look closely you can find evidence for this. As I posted above:

1) feds victory margins in sets are hugely skewed to the middle. 9 out of 15 sets ended 6-3 or 6-4. ie he couldn't be bothered to grind out more breaks.

2) he is actually putting more returns in play than Chung (71% v. 68%), but winning fewer return points (39% v. 43%). This can only be because he is being tactical about when to hustle

So yeah, fed has another gear that Chung doesn't. Chung has probably been redlining it throughout
 
All those great saves (squash shots) he made against Djoker and Sandgren will just be putaway volleys for Fed. Neither Djoker or Sandgren showed a willingness to approach off of those shots, but won the point when they did. Fed will feast off of them.
 
All those great saves (squash shots) he made against Djoker and Sandgren will just be putaway volleys for Fed. Neither Djoker or Sandgren showed a willingness to approach off of those shots, but won the point when they did. Fed will feast off of them.

Sandgren had a few volley sequences where he just would not put the ball away. He'd pop it up to someplace Chung could reach. I don't know whether it is his racquet or just the modern penchant to avoid the net but I could just imagine Federer knifing the ball away.
 
They never played before so Federer has to be ready. Especially If he does not ready for Chung’s movements, he will be very surprised and might put him to tough position.
Federer is a human too, he will make some mistakes here and there.
Nothing is impossible so Chung should be confident and play the best match. He should bring best of Zverev and Djokovic match combined in order to win.
Chung’s biggest problem will be “serve”. He dropped his serve speed for two consecutive matches but if he serves like that Federer will punish those mediocre serves especially second serves.
During Djokovic match, Chung hit many serves to his forehands. Probably Neville wanted hit more serves to his forehands because of Djokovic’s elbow problem. Looks like strategy was worked beautifully.
I will not surprised Chung will serve Federer’s backhands as much as he can.
Federer’s weakness will be his backhands. Chung can’t hit every balls to his backhands but he should attack federer’s Backhands as much as he can and ready for those slices.
Federer needs to be careful when he goes to net. We already saw chung can pass many balls to opponents who come to net.

Game plan
Federer 9.5/ chung 8.5
Forehand
Federer 9.5/ chung 8.5
Backhands
Federer 8 / chung 9
Serve
Federer 9 / chung 7.5
Return
Federer 8 / chung 9
Movement
Federer 8.5/ chung 10
Endurance
Federer 8/chung 9

Hot weather condition might help Chung but it will be hard to have “W” for Chung.
Hopefully Chung can play the match confidently. Scores and result are not important for me. I just want to see good match even if he lost the match.
 
If the match goes 5 sets, Chung will win. Fed has 36 yo legs while Chung has 21 yo tree trunks.
 
They never played before so Federer has to be ready. Especially If he does not ready for Chung’s movements, he will be very surprised and might put him to tough position.
Federer is a human too, he will make some mistakes here and there.
Nothing is impossible so Chung should be confident and play the best match. He should bring best of Zverev and Djokovic match combined in order to win.
Chung’s biggest problem will be “serve”. He dropped his serve speed for two consecutive matches but if he serves like that Federer will punish those mediocre serves especially second serves.
During Djokovic match, Chung hit many serves to his forehands. Probably Neville wanted hit more serves to his forehands because of Djokovic’s elbow problem. Looks like strategy was worked beautifully.
I will not surprised Chung will serve Federer’s backhands as much as he can.
Federer’s weakness will be his backhands. Chung can’t hit every balls to his backhands but he should attack federer’s Backhands as much as he can and ready for those slices.
Federer needs to be careful when he goes to net. We already saw chung can pass many balls to opponents who come to net.

Game plan
Federer 9.5/ chung 8.5
Forehand
Federer 9.5/ chung 8.5
Backhands
Federer 8 / chung 9
Serve
Federer 9 / chung 7.5
Return
Federer 8 / chung 9
Movement
Federer 8.5/ chung 10
Endurance
Federer 8/chung 9

Hot weather condition might help Chung but it will be hard to have “W” for Chung.
Hopefully Chung can play the match confidently. Scores and result are not important for me. I just want to see good match even if he lost the match.

I highly doubt heat helps Chung. Federer plays very well in heat and it will make the ball more lively, helping his ground strokes and especially his serve.

Regardless of that, Chung probably gets straight set'd.
 
If you look closely you can find evidence for this. As I posted above:

1) feds victory margins in sets are hugely skewed to the middle. 9 out of 15 sets ended 6-3 or 6-4. ie he couldn't be bothered to grind out more breaks.

2) he is actually putting more returns in play than Chung (71% v. 68%), but winning fewer return points (39% v. 43%). This can only be because he is being tactical about when to hustle

So yeah, fed has another gear that Chung doesn't. Chung has probably been redlining it throughout
Thanks for the thread, as always. And yes, Fed has another gear. However, 1 & 2 are too simplistic.
1. Logical explanation, but the sample size is too small to make that conclusion.
2. Here, I disagree. There can be multiple other explanations, first and foremost the quality of the return. I.e. a floating slice to the middle of the court vs. a Djokovic-like bullet to the returners feet (not saying that's the difference, just that it's an option). Or that Chung does better once the rally is close to neutral/once the return is in play in general. Or (you continue).

Chung's played, on paper, better opponents. But I still have a hard time seeing him deal successfully with Fed's hold game, while being able to hold off Fed's return game often enough. I guess I should be worried (neck and neck in games won and % of points won), but honestly I'm not that worried. Haven't seen a lot of Chung this tournament though.
 
I think we now have to live with the fact that Federer's level dropped in 2018. He hasn't looked quite as fast or agile as last year, but is relying heavily now on his skills and tennis IQ to beat opponents. I was expecting him to raise his level in the last 2 matches, but that never really happened. I guess he will have to engage into a dog fight at some point in the remaining matches. Chung will retrieve a lot of balls, and Federer has to resort to all his trick to put him off balance. I think Cilic will be his opponent in the final, and it will be a tough one where he will have to extract every bit of whatever he has inside him.
I agree. I have the same perspective. This Federer seems closer to the 2015 version and the Wimby 18 version than the lean machine we saw late at AO last year and in IWs.
 
This Federer seems closer to the 2015 version and the Wimby 18 version than the lean machine we saw late at AO last year and in IWs.

It's possible we may never again see his 2017 IW form. That was as good as 2004-05 Federer. His form currently looks like summer 2015 form: excellent but potentially shaky in tough moments.
 
Back
Top