Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Cilic [6] - AO 2018 F

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Fedr leads head to head by 8-1 with the sole defeat at the USO QF in 2014. Below are cumulative stats for the first 6 rounds of the AO:
  • Fedr better overall
  • Fedr slightly better on serve, even after correcting for opponents' strength (outperformed the tour by +12 p.p. against his opponents, vs. +9 p.p by Cilic)
  • Both comparable on return
  • Fed only 11 hours on court vs. 17

Enjoy!
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Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
I guess the serve performance stats of Marin suffered slightly for the quality of Nadal's return game.

Remains a very intriguing matchup fraught with danger for either man.
 

World Beater

Hall of Fame
would be interested in whether cilic's form was better or worse leading up to the match against fed at the usopen few years ago...

would give us an indication if cilic can step it up significantly...
 

73west

Semi-Pro
Fedr leads head to head by 8-1 with the sole defeat at the USO QF in 2014. Below are cumulative stats for the first 6 rounds of the AO:
One quick note: the "unique games in which a player faced bp" is a stat I've been calling on the networks to show for years. I've always wanted to see a stat like

Breaks / Unique Games / Break Points

So 1/3/4 would mean you got 4 break points across 3 different games and converted 1.
It gives a lot more information than just 1/4. So thank you for inlcuding it.
 

Raul_SJ

G.O.A.T.
Overall serve stats and service games held are very similar except for:

Aces: 107 to 71 Cilic. Granted Cilic has played more games.

IF his serve is on, look for Cilic to get a lot more free points. Yes, Federer has the better return but Cilic's bombs are simply untouchable.
 
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falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Overall serve stats and service games held are very similar except for:

Aces: 107 to 71 Cilic.

IF his serve is on, look for Cilic to get a lot more free points. Yes, Federer has the better return but Cilic's bombs are simply untouchable.

Actually a better metric is unreturned serves and they are pretty close on that. 39% for fedr and 42% for cilic.
 

skyline

Legend
would be interested in whether cilic's form was better or worse leading up to the match against fed at the usopen few years ago...

would give us an indication if cilic can step it up significantly...
It was worse until the match with Berdych. But then that match showed form he hasn't shown here imo, not with Nadal or with anyone else.

I think he's at W2017 level. Not USO2014.
 

Raul_SJ

G.O.A.T.
Actually a better metric is unreturned serves and they are pretty close on that. 39% for fedr and 42% for cilic.

That might be true but also dependent on the quality of the returner.

Although I recall from the 14 USO that Cilic seemed to absolutely dominate on his serve. Federer, a great returner, was often not coming close to getting it back.
 

Soul_Evisceration

Hall of Fame
thanks for this...if one is a fed fan, then a bit worrisome since cilic has shown he can step it up significantly.

Perhaps a better Cilic (I would still take US Open 2014 Cilic over current AO 18 Cilic) but Federer AO 18 is much better than USO 2014.

Yes it's worrysome but so was Berdych and look what happened.

I do believe however that Cilic will win a set and perhaps serve for another one just to blow it. My 2 cents.
 

skyline

Legend
People are forgetting that Cilic's USO 2014 run wasn't dominant/flawless until the quarters. He dropped a set to Anderson, and had a hell of a time with Simon. So he was nothing special until the quarters, at which point he just started rolling and never stopped.

This is all to say the guy's totally unpredictable. (I bet there was no one saying, oh yeah this guy's winning this year after he barely scraped past Simon in the quarters.) He could show up a monster in the finals, or he could totally fold - it's anyone's guess how he'll do.

I personally think that what he's shown so far isn't and won't be enough. But he could unexpectedly jump to the next level as he did at USO between Simon and Berdych.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I guess the serve performance stats of Marin suffered slightly for the quality of Nadal's return game.

Remains a very intriguing matchup fraught with danger for either man.
You would think so, but he only broke twice out of 10 chances. In other words, Cilic's hold game stood the test against very tough return opposition. Roger's hold game hasn't been battle-tested to the same degree
Cilic has amazing numbers. S+R = 118 and DR 1.45. That's Slam winning level.
You bet ya! Luckily for us, so are Fed's numbers. Somethings gotta give

and @falstaff78 - thanks for the great work. As always!
 
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Raul_SJ

G.O.A.T.
so you're saying he's currently playing BETTER than his USO 2014 run?

that's gotta be worrisome for the #fedfan

Cilic's serve was really on at USO 2014. I don't remember if Federer was injured. I think he might have been coming off a long match with short rest.

In any case it was ugly. Not pretty to watch. Federer really needs to get revenge for that. OTOH, Cilic wants to avenge Wimbledon 2017.

If Cilic's serve is on, this could be a very close match. Cilic appears to be confident. Already has a GS win over Fed. I don't look for him to choke.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Overall serve stats and service games held are very similar except for:

Aces: 107 to 71 Cilic. Granted Cilic has played more games.

IF his serve is on, look for Cilic to get a lot more free points. Yes, Federer has the better return but Cilic's bombs are simply untouchable.
I don't think the difference is a huge as you make it out to be.
1) Aces:
Fed's hit 66 aces for every 100 for Cilic
Fed's played 73 points for every 100 for Cilic
Not a massive difference
2) Unreturned serves, 46 % for Fed, 51 % for Cilic on the first serve, equal on the 2nd. Again, not a massive difference though it's there.
thanks for this...if one is a fed fan, then a bit worrisome since cilic has shown he can step it up significantly.
Iirc, Cilic was a changed person from the fifth set of his 4th round against Simon(?) and then went on to win the last 3 rounds in straights vs. Birdman, Fed and Nishi. Needless to say, his stats for the 5 matches leading up to Fed in that US Open bears witness to that (i.e. his stats for the last 10 sets would have been out this world kinda stats).
so you're saying he's currently playing BETTER than his USO 2014 run?

that's gotta be worrisome for the #fedfan
he's not, see just above
 
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Jaitock1991

Hall of Fame
Thanks :) Great work. As a Fed fan I'm worried, and find it comical that people are already congratulating Fed. This match is far from written in stone and if Cilic shows up at his best he's actually the favourite imo, as he tends to read Fed's serve better than most.
 
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