Cumulative stats - Federer [3] vs. Berdych [11] - WIM 2017 SF

Who wins?

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    45
  • Poll closed .
falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Here are cumulative stats from the first 5 rounds of Wimbledon. As with the other semi-final, and as with Federer's quarter-final, the story of these stats is that both players are comparable on serve, but one player (in this case Federer) is way better on return.
  • Opposition: Federer's opponents have been stronger - average grass ELO of 46 vs. 71
  • Overall: Federer is stronger in sets (100% vs. 76%), games (62% vs. 58%), points (57% vs. 54%) and dominance ratio (1.77 vs. 1.38)
  • Serve: The two are about the same on serve in games (both dropped serve 3 times), service points (78% vs. 76%) and performance relative to the top 100 against their respective opponents (+10 p.p. v.s +9 p.p.)
  • Return: On return Federer is way better. In games (28% vs. 17%), points (40% vs. 33%) and performance relative to the top 100 vs. respective opposition (+10 p.p. vs. -2 p.p.)
  • Aggression: Both end the point with a winner or unforced error with roughly the same frequency (29% vs. 28%); but when Federer ends the point he wins it more often (79% vs. 68%)
Since Jan 2014 Federer is 7-0 in matches, and 16-2 in sets vs. Berdych. In these matches vs Berdych, Federer has won 89% of service games, and 33% of return games, and amassed a 1.47 dominance ratio. Bookies have Federer as an 85-15 favourite.

Enjoy


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Thanks as always, Falstaff, great job. The thing that sticks out for me is that Birdy is holding 97% of his serve games but that Roger's winning 28% of his return games. Both of those stats will loom large on Friday. I don't think Berdych's extra time on court will be a factor, the guy is a physical beast out there.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Thanks as always, Falstaff, great job. The thing that sticks out for me is that Birdy is holding 97% of his serve games but that Roger's winning 28% of his return games. Both of those stats will loom large on Friday. I don't think Berdych's extra time on court will be a factor, the guy is a physical beast out there.
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basically they've both been broken 3 times. not very different from raonic. fed should be able to get one break per set. and if need be, tough out a TB or two.

I just look at their recent history and I'm not worried.

What worries me is the threat of Cilic looming in the final. I just hope Sam the Destroyer can pull another miracle out there.
 
falstaff78 said:
basically they've both been broken 3 times. not very different from raonic. fed should be able to get one break per set. and if need be, tough out a TB or two.

I just look at their recent history and I'm not worried.

What worries me is the threat of Cilic looming in the final. I just hope Sam the Destroyer can pull another miracle out there.
Click to expand...

My thoughts exactly! So nice when people type out what I think :D
 
metsman said:
Miami is a different story and Fed was starting to wear out a bit in that tournament. This is grass where Fed can rush Berdych far easier and Fed is very fresh right now.
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I know. But that was the first match in ages that birdman was competitive vs federer ( fed had won 5 matches in a row in straights vs him , starting from Indian Wells 2015).

If fed keeps up his form vs dimi/Raonic, there's nothing birdman can do.
Only if federer's form dips, birdman might be able to do something.
 
abmk said:
Berdych's perf vs fed at Miami makes me pause. If you had asked me after AO and before Miami, I'd say fed would take this easily.
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But remember that was played in swamp-like humidity and a slow, slow HC. It was also 95 degrees. These quicker conditions will favor Roger. I am confident he will beat Berdych in three or possibly four sets.
 
BeatlesFan said:
But remember that was played in swamp-like humidity and a slow, slow HC. It was also 95 degrees. These quicker conditions will favor Roger. I am confident he will beat Berdych in three or possibly four sets.
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Oh, even I think he'll beat birdman in 3 or 4 sets. But just saying that the Miami match is the only thing that makes me pause a bit.
 
abmk said:
Berdych's perf vs fed at Miami makes me pause. If you had asked me after AO and before Miami, I'd say fed would take this easily.
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Fed was pretty mediocre from the 2nd set onwards in Miami (not to mention he was serving for the match in the 3rd set and shouldn't even let Berdych get anywhere near MP).
 
underground said:
Fed was pretty mediocre from the 2nd set onwards in Miami (not to mention he was serving for the match in the 3rd set and shouldn't even let Berdych get anywhere near MP).
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yeah, he shouldn't have let Berdych get near MP, but berdych was playing well and federer barely escaped in the end.
 
Poor Berdy. He's been doing well to get as far as the semis... but he's running up against Fed. He just has no chance here. Fed will continue his dominant form. It will be an easier match compared to the Raonic match. Raonic was one who could give Fed trouble but not for this semi final.
 
I'm not putting too much stock in the Miami match, as Fed was pretty tired by then.

But still a little worried about Berdych. Granted, it's been a long time since 2010 Wimbledon and 2012 USO, and Fed hasn't lost to him with his new racquet.

Now all the pressure is fully on Fed as the clear odds-on favourite; how will it affect him and his free-flowing style? I think he'll grab this opportunity with both hands, but as a fan can't help but worry. More concerned about Cilic though, and therfore hope the match with Berdych will be short and sweet as at the AO.
 
Berdych is 1-5 in Slam semi-finals going in. Bizarrely, the one he won is the only one he played against a big-three player: Djokovic at Wimbledon 2010 (admittedly, perhaps Djokovic's worst year on tour since 2006 - although this year could well end up being worse, and 2009 might have been worse, as it didn't have a Slam final or DC win).

Berdych has lost three Slam semis against Murray (UO 2012, AO 2015, WI 2016), one against Wawrinka (AO 2014), and one against Soderling (RG 2010). Those are of course quality opponents, but I don't think they are so good that Berdych should have lost all five. A few additional factors:

1. Wawrinka hadn't made a Slam final at the time.
2. Berdych lead his head to head against Murray by two clear matches going into both the UO 2012 and AO 2015.
3. He went into those same two semis on the back of wins against Federer and Nadal, respectively.
 
interesting that the last time they played at WiM, fed was a carrying an injury. he lost to berdych.

similar to the last time he played raonic, when he lost and carried an injury.

This looks like a revenge row of opponents for federer.

hope he beats berdman and then takes cilic down in the final.
 
Remember when the name Berdych made us Fed fans quite wary about the potential match up? Was always such a dangerous player years back to Fed. Some turnaround. I'll be quite shocked if Fed lost this.
 
The Green Mile said:
Remember when the name Berdych made us Fed fans quite wary about the potential match up? Was always such a dangerous player years back to Fed. Some turnaround. I'll be quite shocked if Fed lost this.
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I'm still quite wary. not because it's just berdych, it' just i feel like we've been here before and each time wimbledon has denied fed for some reason or another. i'm being such a debbie downer obviously, but all i keep thinking is USO 2014 and how it looked like it was fed's for the taking. i guess the safest answer here is fed in 4, but we'll see.
 
falstaff78 said:
basically they've both been broken 3 times. not very different from raonic. fed should be able to get one break per set. and if need be, tough out a TB or two.

I just look at their recent history and I'm not worried.

What worries me is the threat of Cilic looming in the final. I just hope Sam the Destroyer can pull another miracle out there.
Click to expand...

part of me wants cilic, because i'm the type of fed fan fan who cares way too much what people think, but i would also like him to get his win over another slam champion. the other part is thinking my heart doesnt need the stress of a potential cilic fed match
 
icedevil0289 said:
I'm still quite wary. not because it's just berdych, it' just i feel like we've been here before and each time wimbledon has denied fed for some reason or another. i'm being such a debbie downer obviously, but all i keep thinking is USO 2014 and how it looked like it was fed's for the taking. i guess the safest answer here is fed in 4, but we'll see.
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I'm rather relaxed tbh, probably because of how Fed's game has evolved in 2017. The lower work rate out on the court, taking the backhand more early and coming over many more 2nd serves, mentally looks at peace right now. Fed said he found that zen feeling at the AO, and it seems like he's carried it over to other tournaments. I would be quite shocked if he let this tournament slip away from him. He knows what to expect, and he's had a couple of days to rest and prepare. It doesn't feel like USO 2014 at all to me...

Inb4, loses in four to Berdych. :oops:
 
The Green Mile said:
I'm rather relaxed tbh, probably because of how Fed's game has evolved in 2017. The lower work rate out on the court, taking the backhand more early and coming over many more 2nd serves, mentally looks at peace right now. Fed said he found that zen feeling at the AO, and it seems like he's carried it over to other tournaments. I would be quite shocked if he let this tournament slip away from him. He knows what to expect, and he's had a couple of days to rest and prepare. It doesn't feel like USO 2014 at all to me...

Inb4, loses in four to Berdych. :oops:
Click to expand...

it's all good, we need the balance to counter the debbie downers like me.
 
icedevil0289 said:
I'm still quite wary. not because it's just berdych, it' just i feel like we've been here before and each time wimbledon has denied fed for some reason or another. i'm being such a debbie downer obviously, but all i keep thinking is USO 2014 and how it looked like it was fed's for the taking. i guess the safest answer here is fed in 4, but we'll see.
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Fed didn't have enough in the tank to mount any sort of comeback at the USO that year after overcoming Monfils the round before. Sure Cilic played lights out but I think Fed could have served better there, he was a break up in the 3rd and on a better day he could have pushed it to 4 at a minimum. Scenario today are completely different to 2014 and I wouldn't draw parallels.
 
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