Cumulative stats - Federer [3] vs. Dimitrov [13] - WIM 2017 R16

[falstaff78]

Many people have been pleasantly surprised at Dimitrov's Wimbledon performance. However, stats suggest a significant part of this resurgence is unsustainable.

Below are cumulative stats through the first 3 rounds of Wimbledon for Dimi and Lord Fedr.

1. We can see why Dimitrov has raised expectations - he has been dominant in sets and games!

• winning all his sets, 75% of them by a score of 6-2 or better
• winning a staggering 73% of games; far better than Lord Fedr with 60%
• winning 94% of service games (same as Fedr), but breaking in a shocking 52% of return games (almost double Fedr)

2. However, if we dig a little deeper, these performances are fueled by several unsustainable factors

• Extreme clutchness on return: Dimitrov won 65% of break points on return; vs. 46% on other return points; this differential of 20 points is completely unsustainable; this allowed him to win 100% of return games in which he had break points, compared to 59% for Lord Fedr
• Extreme clutchness on serve: Dimitrov saved 88% of break points on his serve; vs. 71% of other service points; this differential of 17 points is also unsustainable; this allowed him to lose only 25% of service games when facing break point, compared to 67% for Lord Fedr
• Quality of opposition: Dimitrov's opponents are not very good grass players; e.g. he played 42% of his points vs. Diego Schwartzmann who is the 147th ranked grass player in the world!

Based on these numbers i would suggest it's best to temper expectations for Dimitrov for the second week. Specifically against Lord Fedr, who is putting up some good numbers without the benefit of clutchness!

 

[falstaff78]

@Meles @Gary Duane @Chanwan @Sysyphus @Red Rick

 

[Prashanth HS]

Great stat compilation and analysis. Feeling more relieved after seeing these numbers. Hoping for Fed to win in 3 or 4 sets

 

[jwjh]

@falstaff78 just exposed Dimitrov's false dawn.

 

[enlightenment]

excellent post. Federer not even at full strength with the cold. I think we can all be quietly confident in him. Federer in 3/4 sets.

 

[gn]

Sir Sean Connery approves it.

 

[The Green Mile]

147th ranked grass courter? Is there a table for this? Interesting to have a look at it...

 

[Sysyphus]

Much obliged!

The difference in distance covered per point gets at the heart of why people are very wrong when they say things such as that Fed and Dimi do the exact same things, just that Fed does it better. This is not a minor difference, but 30-something percent, which adds up to a lot over a match. And it was even bigger at the AO this year where I believe Fed had the lowest work-rate of the quarterfinalists and Dimi the highest (above Nadal for example).

It signifies that they are applying two distinctly different approaches to the game. Grigor doesn't have the court positioning skill, precision and level of aggression to pull off Fed's extremely low-work style; Fed most probably doesn't have the level of athleticism to pull off Grigor's approach to the game, and indeed it's been shown that Fed's accuracy drops quite a bit when he gets pushed beyond a certain work-rate, and he then turns passive. That's largely been Fed's bane against Nadal through the years and Novak in recent years, as they force him to work more than others are able to. He turned this pattern around against Nadal this year through his more uncompromising tactics.

And it's probably in this area where Grigor's hopes lie. He's very unlikely to outdo Fed by blitzing him, but if he can manage to turn it into a physical tussle, then it might get interesting. But this is clearly far easier said than done against this Fed off clay, as he's become the expert bar none when it comes to imposing his low-work game and forcing the opponent to work more than himself.

 

[falstaff78]

Much obliged!

The difference in distance covered per point gets at the heart of why people are very wrong when they say things such as that Fed and Dimi do the exact same things, just that Fed does it better. This is not a minor difference, but 30-something percent, which adds up to a lot over a match. And it was even bigger at the AO this year where I believe Fed had the lowest work-rate of the quarterfinalists and Dimi the highest (above Nadal for example).

It signifies that they are applying two distinctly different approaches to the game. Grigor doesn't have the court positioning skill, precision and level of aggression to pull off Fed's extremely low-work style; Fed most probably doesn't have the level of athleticism to pull off Grigor's approach to the game, and indeed it's been shown that Fed's accuracy drops quite a bit when he gets pushed beyond a certain work-rate, and he then turns passive. That's largely been Fed's bane against Nadal through the years and Novak in recent years, as they force him to work more than others are able to. He turned this pattern around against Nadal this year through his more uncompromising tactics.

And it's probably in this area where Grigor's hopes lie. He's very unlikely to outdo Fed by blitzing him, but if he can manage to turn it into a physical tussle, then it might get interesting. But this is clearly far easier said than done against this Fed off clay, as he's become the expert bar none when it comes to imposing his low-work game and forcing the opponent to work more than himself.

Great observation. I think the following data emphasize your point even more. Not only is Dimitrov not playing Federer's game. He's playing a whole different game altogether.

Meters run / point, 1st 3 rounds

Muller 7.2
Fedr 7.4
Cilic 8.9
Nole 9.1
Andy 9.6
Rafa 10.5
Dimi 10.7

Although it should be noted, he's no grinder. Federer's Winners+U/E are 32% of his total points. For Dimitrov it's also 32%. In other words, the same fraction of points played end on Dimitrov's / Federer's terms. He also goes to the net just as much as Fed.

 

[aldeayeah]

Fed's extremely low-work style [...] Fed's accuracy drops quite a bit when he gets pushed beyond a certain work-rate, and he then turns passive [...] Fed[...]'s become the expert bar none when it comes to imposing his low-work game and forcing the opponent to work more than himself.

Lazy, arrogant GOAT

 

[Sysyphus]

Great observation. I think the following data emphasize your point even more. Not only is Dimitrov not playing Federer's game. He's playing a whole different game altogether.

Meters run / point, 1st 3 rounds

Muller 7.2
Fedr 7.4
Cilic 8.9
Nole 9.1
Andy 9.6
Rafa 10.5
Dimi 10.7

Although it should be noted, he's no grinder. Federer's Winners+U/E are 32% of his total points. For Dimitrov it's also 32%. In other words, the same fraction of points played end on Dimitrov's / Federer's terms. He also goes to the net just as much as Fed.

Thanks for the additional numbers!

Hehe, Grigor can be said to be some weird amalgamation of a shotmaker and a grinder. He's very happy to work points and force physical rallies, but he also wants to be the one to pull the trigger. This is why many have called his game a bit 'confused' and speculated that he'd be better off committing to a more offensive court positioning. But it's hard to say what his tools are best suited for.

I would think the W+UE % would be a bit incomplete seeing how forced errors tend to be the biggest rally category and what the players usually aim for, though, but it does give a good idea nevertheless.

 

[falstaff78]

Thanks for the additional numbers!

Hehe, Grigor can be said to be some weird amalgamation of a shotmaker and a grinder. He's very happy to work points and force physical rallies, but he also wants to be the one to pull the trigger. This is why many have called his game a bit 'confused' and speculated that he'd be better off committing to a more offensive court positioning. But it's hard to say what his tools are best suited for.

I would think the W+UE % would be a bit incomplete seeing how forced errors tend to be the biggest rally category and what the players usually aim for, though, but it does give a good idea nevertheless.

i think the crux is in the phrase "what players usually aim for"

(W+U/E)/(total points) represents, crudely, the frequency with which the player deviates from that pattern. and W/(W+U/E) represents, crudely, how successful the player is when deviating.

 

[MasturB]

Fedr will prevailail.

 

[The Green Mile]

Much obliged!

The difference in distance covered per point gets at the heart of why people are very wrong when they say things such as that Fed and Dimi do the exact same things, just that Fed does it better. This is not a minor difference, but 30-something percent, which adds up to a lot over a match. And it was even bigger at the AO this year where I believe Fed had the lowest work-rate of the quarterfinalists and Dimi the highest (above Nadal for example).

It signifies that they are applying two distinctly different approaches to the game. Grigor doesn't have the court positioning skill, precision and level of aggression to pull off Fed's extremely low-work style; Fed most probably doesn't have the level of athleticism to pull off Grigor's approach to the game, and indeed it's been shown that Fed's accuracy drops quite a bit when he gets pushed beyond a certain work-rate, and he then turns passive. That's largely been Fed's bane against Nadal through the years and Novak in recent years, as they force him to work more than others are able to. He turned this pattern around against Nadal this year through his more uncompromising tactics.

And it's probably in this area where Grigor's hopes lie. He's very unlikely to outdo Fed by blitzing him, but if he can manage to turn it into a physical tussle, then it might get interesting. But this is clearly far easier said than done against this Fed off clay, as he's become the expert bar none when it comes to imposing his low-work game and forcing the opponent to work more than himself.

Thanks for the additional numbers!

Hehe, Grigor can be said to be some weird amalgamation of a shotmaker and a grinder. He's very happy to work points and force physical rallies, but he also wants to be the one to pull the trigger. This is why many have called his game a bit 'confused' and speculated that he'd be better off committing to a more offensive court positioning. But it's hard to say what his tools are best suited for.

I would think the W+UE % would be a bit incomplete seeing how forced errors tend to be the biggest rally category and what the players usually aim for, though, but it does give a good idea nevertheless.

Nice posts as usual. Actually don't think I've ever disagreed with one of your posts, quite unusual really...

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Great stats.

Wouldn't mind Fed starting to be a bit more clutch though ...

 

[BeatlesFan]

Feeling more relieved after seeing these numbers. Hoping for Fed to win in 3 or 4 sets

Why would you fear Dimitrov when facing Fed? I am usually completely tied up into knots for every Fed match in the second week of Wimbledon, but I am pretty calm for this one. Roger doesn't have any match up issues with Dimi and should handle him in straights.

 

[falstaff78]

BUMP!

 

[BeatlesFan]

This one was NID. Dimi simply doesn't have the confidence, the mentality or the belief to beat Roger. His DF's were just mounting up all match long.

 

[falstaff78]

This one was NID. Dimi simply doesn't have the confidence, the mentality or the belief to beat Roger. His DF's were just mounting up all match long.

Nor is the next one as you will see from my upcoming stats thread

 

[kOaMaster]

that was quite spot on. well done