Cumulative stats - Federer [3] vs. Raonic [6] - WIM 2017 QF

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Here are cumulative statistics for Federer and Raonic, for the first 4 rounds of Wimbledon 2017. This one is an open and shut case.

  • Level of competition is similiar
  • Federer with higher overall level - more points won (57% vs. 54%), more games won (62% vs. 55%), much higher dominance ratio (1.77 vs. 1.32) etc. etc.
  • Serves are about the same - Fed won 77% of points vs. 74%; both won 94% of service games; both won 9 p.p. more service points against their opponents, than the top 100 managed on grass in the last two years, against the same opponents
  • Fed's return is out of sight - broke 30% of games vs. 15%; won 41% of return points vs. 34%; won 10 p.p. more return points against his opponents than the top 100; whereas Raonic managed the same as the top 100
  • As a result Raonic played 8 close sets out of 15; whereas Federer only played 2/10
  • Fatigue might be factor - Raonic has been on court 88% longer, played 62% more points, and run 70% more distance
Seems like Raonic's best outcome is to hope Federer's return game is off, and string together some sets in tie breaks; either that or hope for a recurrence of an injury as happened in their semifinal match last year.

Bookies have Fed as a 77% favourite, which sounds about right.


Enjoy

Bc2OZC7.png

ml8JYW0.png
 
Last edited:

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Thanks man! Fed 2nd serve win % is.. wow.

Raonic only been broken 5 times. Fed 3. Whoever blinks is gone here imho.

Yeah but if we look a little closer, Raonic has saved 81% of BPs on his serve, compared to winning 74% of other points - that's a clutchness of 8 p.p. As a result he has only lost 36% of unique service games in which he faced break points. Federer on the other hand has lost 75% of unique service games where he faced break points. This is because he has been very un-clutch on saving break points, relative to other service points. (67% vs. 77%)

In the long run one expects clutchness to be zero. So a more telling statistic is that Federer only faced break point in half the proportion of games that Raonic did. (8% vs. 17%)

If you look at my other thread about Federer's R16 match, you will see that extreme clutchness was making Dimitrov's performance appear stronger than it is. (In that case it was a ridiculous +17 p.p. on serve and +20 p.p. on return.) Raonic's clutchness is not as extreme, but expect his service game to come down a couple of notches. Especially when Federer's return starts getting stuck into Raonic's relatively weaker second serve!
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
I cannot see Feddy losing this

Well anything is possible. Last night I went to play tennis and the weather said 0% chance of rain.. About 40-45 minutes into my practice it started pouring...

Any who, I do agree that I think Fed will win, and I certainly hope he does. Raonic hasn't been as good this year, and Fed has won 4 titles, plus he's actually healthy this year. Last year he almost beat Raonic with a bad knee, and I believe he hadn't won a single title going into that Wimbledon.
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
If only Fed converted one of those BPs in 4th set last year. :( I think Raonic's chances are slim this time. Plus since Moya's departure, Raonic has been struggling with poor form and injury. So Federer must win. No excuses.

Or those two match points against Djokovic in the 2010 and 2011 US Open's, respectively. :(
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Or those two match points against Djokovic in the 2010 and 2011 US Open's, respectively. :(

ahhhh this game.

match point vs. safin, fourth set tiebreak, australian 2005
match point vs. Nadal, Rome final, 2006
break point vs. nadal, 4-3, fifth set, wimbledon 2008
break point vs. nadal, 4-4, third set, australian 2009
30-0 point vs. JMDP, 5-4, second set, USO 2009
set point, first set, RG final vs. nadal, 2011
break point, fifth set, wimbledon 2014 vs. djoko

:confused::confused::confused:
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
ahhhh this game.

match point vs. safin, fourth set tiebreak, australian 2005
match point vs. Nadal, Rome final, 2006
break point vs. nadal, 4-3, fifth set, wimbledon 2008
break point vs. nadal, 4-4, third set, australian 2009
30-0 point vs. JMDP, 5-4, second set, USO 2009
set point, first set, RG final vs. nadal, 2011
break point, fifth set, wimbledon 2014 vs. djoko

:confused::confused::confused:

i can't be too bummed about safin or jmdp tbh.


rome though...damn i feel like it started so many things
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
i can't be too bummed about safi or jmdp tbh.


rome though...damn i feel like it started so many things

yeah. I am glad JMDP won the USO.

But that AO would have been great. 4 straight AOs. 6 total right now. 4 years consecutive years of 3 majors. going for 20 at wim 2017.....all from that one point.....
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I have no idea how Raonic managed to beat Zverev in the first place. If he doesn't raise his level considerably Federer will straight set him.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Here are cumulative statistics for Federer and Raonic, for the first 4 rounds of Wimbledon 2017. This one is an open and shut case.

  • Level of competition is similiar
  • Federer with higher overall level - more points won (57% vs. 54%), more games won (62% vs. 55%), much higher dominance ratio (1.77 vs. 1.32) etc. etc.
  • Serves are about the same - Fed won 77% of points vs. 74%; both won 94% of service games; both won 9 p.p. more service points against their opponents, than the top 100 managed on grass in the last two years, against the same opponents
  • Fed's return is out of sight - broke 30% of games vs. 15%; won 41% of return points vs. 34%; won 10 p.p. more return points against his opponents than the top 100; whereas Raonic managed the same as the top 100
  • As a result Raonic played 8 close sets out of 15; whereas Federer only played 2/10
  • Fatigue might be factor - Raonic has been on court 88% longer, played 62% more points, and run 70% more distance
Seems like Raonic's best outcome is to hope Federer's return game is off, and string together some sets in tie breaks; either that or hope for a recurrence of an injury as happened in their semifinal match last year.

Bookies have Fed as a 77% favourite, which sounds about right.


Enjoy

Bc2OZC7.png

ml8JYW0.png
I can make it simpler: Federer needed to revive his return game to be dominant on grass again, and he's done just that.

Throw out DR. Just automatically give an advantage to the guy who is winning the same game% but is holding serve a higher %.

Then look at 2nd serves. Fed and Raonic are about even in winning service games, but Fed has more ways to win. If his 1st serve falters a bit, he can still win more games with the 2nd serve.

Then look at game% for both and see that Fed is way WAY better. Conclusion: Raonic has to be red hot, and Fed has to be way off for Raonic to have a chance - which could happen, but it not highly likely.

Still three matches to go, but I like Fed's chances this year.
 
Last edited:

merwy

G.O.A.T.
Aii.. Was hoping Zverev would take it in the fourth. I'm scared, obviously seeing how last year went. Fed is better now though and Raonic probably not as good. Raonic serves big and hits big from the baseline so if he catches fire it could go very wrong.
 

PeteD

Legend
Agree, return is key. When Milos sees that dreaded dead ball returned to his baseline, what is he supposed to do, out-court position Federer?
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
yeah. I am glad JMDP won the USO.

But that AO would have been great. 4 straight AOs. 6 total right now. 4 years consecutive years of 3 majors. going for 20 at wim 2017.....all from that one point.....
forget the MP, there was a blatantly wrong call late in the 5th that would have given Fed 2 BP on that gorgeous looking Safin DTL backhand at like 5-5 or 6-6 or something.
 

mightyjeditribble

Hall of Fame
Thanks for these stats. They make me more confident about Fed's chances of going through without expending too much energy, hopefully - though I'm still nervous.

Looks as though the Djokovic match in the SF is likely to be key. Fed made the final in 2015 without dropping a set IIRC, still lost to Novak.
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
Raonic in 4! Milos is settling in to a good rhythm and he will be confident after last years win. He can do it again!
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Thanks for these stats. They make me more confident about Fed's chances of going through without expending too much energy, hopefully - though I'm still nervous.

Looks as though the Djokovic match in the SF is likely to be key. Fed made the final in 2015 without dropping a set IIRC, still lost to Novak.
Bottom line:

Fed is at 24% of return games for career on grass.

These are the years he was below that:

2011
2010
2008
2014
2015
2016
2009

The only times he hit 30% or above was in 2004, 2003 and 2006.

That's about where he is this year.

These are the years he was above 26% of return games:

2004
2003
2006
2013
2005

2013 we can throw out because he was out early to Stakhovsky,

Conclusion: he is on grass about where Nadal was on clay this year. Doesn't mean he will win. But I have to pick him at the winner now.
 
Last edited:

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Bottom line:

Fed is at 24% of return games for career on grass.

These are the years he was below that:

2011
2010
2008
2014
2015
2016
2009

The only time he hit 30% was in 2006.

That's about where he is this year.

These are the years he was above 26% of return games:

2006
2013
2005

2013 we can throw out because he was out early to Stakhovsky,

Conclusion: he is on grass about where Nadal was on clay this year. Doesn't mean he will win. But I have to pick him at the winner now.

delete post
 
Last edited:

abmk

Bionic Poster
Bottom line:

Fed is at 24% of return games for career on grass.

These are the years he was below that:

2011
2010
2008
2014
2015
2016
2009

The only time he hit 30% was in 2006.

That's about where he is this year.

These are the years he was above 26% of return games:

2006
2013
2005

2013 we can throw out because he was out early to Stakhovsky,

Conclusion: he is on grass about where Nadal was on clay this year. Doesn't mean he will win. But I have to pick him at the winner now.

return games :

fed was 35% in 2004
30% in 2006
31% in 2003

he's at 29% this year so far.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
return games :

fed was 35% in 2004
30% in 2006
31% in 2003

he's at 29% this year so far.
Yup. Missed pasting those two years.

Above 26%:

2004
2003
2006
2013
2005

Though because of the shortness of the grass season it is probably better to take multiple years and average.

2003-2004 was phenomenal. But his serve was not fully developed in 2003, most likely.

In terms of game% he was above this year only 2004 and 2006. 2004 level was frightening.

If he wins Wimbledon this year his results should track in that area. A loss, of course, will bring down those stats.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Yup. Missed pasting those two years.

Above 26%:

2004
2003
2006
2013
2005

Though because of the shortness of the grass season it is probably better to take multiple years and average.

2003-2004 was phenomenal. But his serve was not fully developed in 2003, most likely.

In terms of game% he was above this year only 2004 and 2006. 2004 level was frightening.

If he wins Wimbledon this year his results should track in that area. A loss, of course, will bring down those stats.

oh, federer's serve was fully developed in 2003. He didn't face BP on in the final vs Scud.

he won 92% of his service games and 70% of his service points in 2003 on grass.

for career he is at 92% and 72% respectively.

2003-2006 were his best years on grass.

expect his #s this year to do down even if he wins, he'll face Raonic, Djoko/Berdych(unlikely to be mannarino), Murray/Querrey/Muller/Cilic

the stats usually go down when you face top players, the return more so than the serve.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
oh, federer's serve was fully developed in 2003. He didn't face BP on in the final vs Scud.

he won 92% of his service games and 70% of his service points in 2003 on grass.

for career he is at 92% and 72% respectively.

2003-2006 were his best years on grass.
Fed's career on grass for serving is 92.4%. That, of course is excellent. But it also sets a very high bar.

In 2003 it was 91.5. Don't just look at the ATP. It is rounded.

Over time those numbers went up on serve, down on return.

His best year for games was 2004, almost 66%. Next is 2006, about 62.4% But his peak for serving was 2007-2008. His serve has improved with age as his return has declined. That's what makes this year so impressive, so far. But he has to keep going this way for three more matches.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
the stats usually go down when you face top players, the return more so than the serve.
Exactly correct, but that's on average. Nothing is certain for one year.

For the record, Fed has won 59% of his games in the last three rounds, averaging for all the years he has won. So if he wins, there is no reason to expect his stats to fall too much.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Fed's career on grass for serving is 92.4%. That, of course is excellent. But it also sets a very high bar.

In 2003 it was 91.5. Don't just look at the ATP. It is rounded.

Over time those numbers went up on serve, down on return.

His best year for games was 2004, almost 66%. Next is 2006, about 62.4% But his peak for serving was 2007-2008. His serve has improved with age as his return has declined. That's what makes this year so impressive, so far. But he has to keep going this way for three more matches.

*fingers crossed* idk how those stats will look if he gets past raonic and faces novak
 

fed_is_GOD

Professional
Here are cumulative statistics for Federer and Raonic, for the first 4 rounds of Wimbledon 2017. This one is an open and shut case.

  • Level of competition is similiar
  • Federer with higher overall level - more points won (57% vs. 54%), more games won (62% vs. 55%), much higher dominance ratio (1.77 vs. 1.32) etc. etc.
  • Serves are about the same - Fed won 77% of points vs. 74%; both won 94% of service games; both won 9 p.p. more service points against their opponents, than the top 100 managed on grass in the last two years, against the same opponents
  • Fed's return is out of sight - broke 30% of games vs. 15%; won 41% of return points vs. 34%; won 10 p.p. more return points against his opponents than the top 100; whereas Raonic managed the same as the top 100
  • As a result Raonic played 8 close sets out of 15; whereas Federer only played 2/10
  • Fatigue might be factor - Raonic has been on court 88% longer, played 62% more points, and run 70% more distance
Seems like Raonic's best outcome is to hope Federer's return game is off, and string together some sets in tie breaks; either that or hope for a recurrence of an injury as happened in their semifinal match last year.

Bookies have Fed as a 77% favourite, which sounds about right.


Enjoy

Bc2OZC7.png

ml8JYW0.png


Love your posts man... :)
 

VaporDude95

Banned
Thanks for these stats. They make me more confident about Fed's chances of going through without expending too much energy, hopefully - though I'm still nervous.

Looks as though the Djokovic match in the SF is likely to be key. Fed made the final in 2015 without dropping a set IIRC, still lost to Novak.

He did drop a set to Groth in 3R TB, but other than that, he did great. Played a terrible final.
 

Defcon

Hall of Fame
Hope Fed wins, but as all fans know, stats don't really matter for Fed's matches :) esp at this stage.

And you forgot one stat - Fed has the most beautiful game, Raonic one of the ugliest !!
 

donquijote

G.O.A.T.
Fed played 4 matches and he was on the court for 5.7 hours?
Meters run per point: 7.5
134 winners and 40 UEs.
That's total dominance.
 
Top