Cumulative stats for US Open semi-finalists

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Great stats from a stats guru at TTW!

I also believe this should be a very good chance for Fed to win his 18th. If he wins the SF in under 2 hours, he will have a very good shot. Even against Djokovic, I see that 50/50. I really hope he makes quick work of SF.
The problem of course is that most of the other winners were not 34. Agassi was almost 33 when he won his last AO. And Novak is incredibly tough on HCs.

I also won't be stupid enough this time around to dismiss Wawrinka and Cilic, who won both HC slams last year. But for use EITHER Fed OR Novak should end up in the final, and if that happens, one of them should win. This of course is assuming that both are not absolutely gassed from 5 hard sets in the semis. :)
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Thanks for pointing me here @Chanwan

Federer had certainly looked the most impressive so far but the same was true at Wimbledon. If he gets through Stan without a long match I may start to believe. I would interested in seeing the stats of their opponents but that is perhaps too much work ;)
 

Feather

Legend
Thanks for pointing me here @Chanwan

Federer had certainly looked the most impressive so far but the same was true at Wimbledon. If he gets through Stan without a long match I may start to believe. I would interested in seeing the stats of their opponents but that is perhaps too much work ;)

Don't start to believe. Any of the three guys left can beat him. Irrespective of who wins, Cilic or Novak, start believing only AFTER match point. This small precaution will help to save lots of disappointment
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Don't start to believe. Any of the three guys left can beat him. Irrespective of who wins, Cilic or Novak, start believing only AFTER match point. This small precaution will help to save lots of disappointment

I'm not too optimistic but I do feel Federer has a slim shot. But Wawrinka is going to be very difficult today I feel, he's going to rush Federer a lot and we know that Federer does not move like he used to - or turn defence into attack the same as in his better years.
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Thanks for pointing me here @Chanwan

Federer had certainly looked the most impressive so far but the same was true at Wimbledon. If he gets through Stan without a long match I may start to believe. I would interested in seeing the stats of their opponents but that is perhaps too much work ;)

Please let me know specifically which stats?

The report already has a bunch of the opponents' stats from JM1980's threads. But not all.

The idea is to have a template of a report which can be generated at each major. So it's a one time investment. But good to get it right!
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
The last three winners of HC Slams are in the semi-finals for the 2015 US Open.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I have responded to this immediately after you asked. Go through my posts, it is somewhere. I am not saying anything; Federer does. If you disagree that he is now better than never you disagree with him not me.
Your agenda is obvious and not exactly new. You did never comment on the fact that Fed is not exactly the first player to think he got better with age. Pete said the same in 2002 for instance.
And yes, I disagree with him and you. He's just trying to prop himself up and make himself believe he's good enough to win.
You also never replied to how he can go from 18 out of 19 finals (to the AO 2010) winning 12-13 to 4 out of 22 slam finals, winning 1 (from the FO 2010).

Other than repeating: 'hey, it's not me, who's saying it - it's him'.
But that's a very, very, very clear indicator that he obviously didn't get better with age. You disagree?
You think the entire field, including Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych (2), Seppi, Robreda, Stakhovsky, Gulbis and whoever else I might have forgotten suddenly just got good enough to beat Federer at a major? Nothing to do with Fed's own level?
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Your agenda is obvious and not exactly new. You did never comment on the fact that Fed is not exactly the first player to think he got better with age. Pete said the same in 2002 for instance.
And yes, I disagree with him and you. He's just trying to prop himself up and make himself believe he's good enough to win.
You also never replied to how he can go from 18 out of 19 finals (to the AO 2010) winning 12-13 to 4 out of 22 slam finals, winning 1 (from the FO 2010).

Other than repeating: 'hey, it's not me, who's saying it - it's him'.
But that's a very, very, very clear indicator that he obviously didn't get better with age. You disagree?
You think the entire field, including Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych (2), Seppi, Robreda, Stakhovsky, Gulbis and whoever else I might have forgotten suddenly just got good enough to beat Federer at a major? Nothing to do with Fed's own level?

No point arguing. I have stopped already.
 

Feather

Legend
Your agenda is obvious and not exactly new. You did never comment on the fact that Fed is not exactly the first player to think he got better with age. Pete said the same in 2002 for instance.
And yes, I disagree with him and you. He's just trying to prop himself up and make himself believe he's good enough to win.
You also never replied to how he can go from 18 out of 19 finals (to the AO 2010) winning 12-13 to 4 out of 22 slam finals, winning 1 (from the FO 2010).

Other than repeating: 'hey, it's not me, who's saying it - it's him'.
But that's a very, very, very clear indicator that he obviously didn't get better with age. You disagree?
You think the entire field, including Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych (2), Seppi, Robreda, Stakhovsky, Gulbis and whoever else I might have forgotten suddenly just got good enough to beat Federer at a major? Nothing to do with Fed's own level?

Trolls like him are more curious about Roger's results than we Roger fans. They are waiting for Roger to lose to start all that mentally weak, weak era crap.
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
Trolls like him are more curious about Roger's results than we Roger fans. They are waiting for Roger to lose to start all that mentally weak, weak era crap.
I am not a troll. It is just beyond me that presumably adults would question Federer's (or any other player's) assessment of his own game. He knows why he had more wins before than he has now (if that is the case), I don't. My tennis expertise is not at the level that would allow me to properly assess this issue. It is impressive that you claim to be fond of Federer and yet you are prepared to discredit him as a human being when he contradicts your, most likely, lay opinion.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I am not a troll. It is just beyond me that presumably adults would question Federer's (or any other player's) assessment of his own game. He knows why he had more wins before than he has now (if that is the case), I don't. My tennis expertise is not at the level that would allow me to properly assess this issue. It is impressive that you claim to be fond of Federer and yet you are prepared to discredit him as a human being when he contradicts your, most likely, lay opinion.
hahaha, you're too full of it (and continue to evade my question(s)). Troll.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
why are you engaging? see below
I'll give him this last benefit of the doubt before he ends up on my ignore list.

Also, I actually would be interested in someone trying to rationalize how a player, who won 12 out of 19 slams played (and reached 18/19 finals) goes to winning 1 out of 22 slams and reaching a modest 4/22 finals while at the same time improving his own level of play.
 

RSH

Professional
I'll give him this last benefit of the doubt before he ends up on my ignore list.

Also, I actually would be interested in someone trying to rationalize how a player, who won 12 out of 19 slams played (and reached 18/19 finals) goes to winning 1 out of 22 slams and reaching a modest 4/22 finals while at the same time improving his own level of play.
Strong era.
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
I'll give him this last benefit of the doubt before he ends up on my ignore list.

Also, I actually would be interested in someone trying to rationalize how a player, who won 12 out of 19 slams played (and reached 18/19 finals) goes to winning 1 out of 22 slams and reaching a modest 4/22 finals while at the same time improving his own level of play.
That is easy to answer. One can say Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka (they did not exist in such form prior to year xxx). In my field, I am now better than ever, but don't have as much success as I had 15 years ago. I know that I am now much much better, but field/conditions has changed.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
That is easy to answer. One can say Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka (they did not exist in such form prior to year xxx). In my field, I am now better than ever, but don't have as much success as I had 15 years ago. I know that I am now much much better, but field/conditions has changed.
But it's not, you've failed - they are not at all the only ones beating him - and there's a strong argument that Novak was more or less on the same level in 2012, yet Fed beat him at Wimbledon there, while lost the last two years:

"Your agenda is obvious and not exactly new. You did never comment on the fact that Fed is not exactly the first player to think he got better with age. Pete said the same in 2002 for instance.
And yes, I disagree with him and you. He's just trying to prop himself up and make himself believe he's good enough to win.
You also never replied to how he can go from 18 out of 19 finals (to the AO 2010) winning 12-13 to 4 out of 22 slam finals, winning 1 (from the FO 2010).

Other than repeating: 'hey, it's not me, who's saying it - it's him'.
But that's a very, very, very clear indicator that he obviously didn't get better with age. You disagree?
You think the entire field, including Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych (2), Seppi, Robreda, Stakhovsky, Gulbis and whoever else I might have forgotten suddenly just got good enough to beat Federer at a major? Nothing to do with Fed's own level?"

Oh, and btw - consider yourself ignored
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
But it's not, you've failed - they are not at all the only ones beating him - and there's a strong argument that Novak was more or less on the same level in 2012, yet Fed beat him at Wimbledon there, while lost the last two years:

"Your agenda is obvious and not exactly new. You did never comment on the fact that Fed is not exactly the first player to think he got better with age. Pete said the same in 2002 for instance.
And yes, I disagree with him and you. He's just trying to prop himself up and make himself believe he's good enough to win.
You also never replied to how he can go from 18 out of 19 finals (to the AO 2010) winning 12-13 to 4 out of 22 slam finals, winning 1 (from the FO 2010).

Other than repeating: 'hey, it's not me, who's saying it - it's him'.
But that's a very, very, very clear indicator that he obviously didn't get better with age. You disagree?
You think the entire field, including Tsonga, Soderling, Berdych (2), Seppi, Robreda, Stakhovsky, Gulbis and whoever else I might have forgotten suddenly just got good enough to beat Federer at a major? Nothing to do with Fed's own level?"

Oh, and btw - consider yourself ignored
You do not have right information; they do beat him more than other players in previous years (more than Roddick, Baghdatis etc.). At least, I know that Djokovic beat him this and last year in W final, Wawrinka beat him in RG, Nadal beat him many times in RG. Please, correct me if I am wrong.
 

The_18th_Slam

Hall of Fame
That is easy to answer. One can say Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka (they did not exist in such form prior to year xxx). In my field, I am now better than ever, but don't have as much success as I had 15 years ago. I know that I am now much much better, but field/conditions has changed.
Would you also say Djokovic was playing better in 2005 than in 2011? The field got weaker, and he was able to have more success?
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Fed's stats going into the Wimbledon final this year were also off the charts and he still lost the final. At Wimbledon, he was coming off a semifinal win which gave people a glimpse of what peak Fed used to be like every match. He still lost against Nole on Fed's favorite surface and Nole's least favorite.

So it doesn't matter if Nole goes into the final in crappy form and Fed is lighting up the sky with his brilliance. Fed is OLD and isn't remotely as mentally tough as Nole these days. No comparison.
 

3fees

G.O.A.T.
Heres another stat for 2015

Novak

3 slam appearance in Finals with 2 wins and 1 Runner up-100% in finals 67% winning them

Stan

1 slam appearance in finals and 1 win- 33% in finals and 33% in winning them, Losing 1 AO dismissed by Novak, in semi finals.

Roger

1 slam appearance in finals- 0 win and 1 runner up- 33% in finals and 0 % winning them

Marin

0 slam appearance in finals-0 wins -0% in finals and 0 % in winning them.

The Finals Stats in M1ks and slams NO one even on the same planet. Novak so far ahead its beyond belief. :)

Cheers
3Fees :)

Note:
Murray:

1 slam appearance in finals- 0 win and 1 runner up- 33% in finals and 0 % winning them
 
Problem is Federer may peak too soon (as he did at Wimbledon). Djokovic and Wawrinka are very likely to raise their game for the final weekend. Cilic might even do so as well. Federer is unlikely to do so.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
We can see Fed is playing extremely well even without stats. Just look at how he won Cincy and how easily he wins his matches at USO. He's really going hard for that elusive last slam title. I still think that if it is Djoko in final, it will be a very tough ask for Fed in a best of 5 regardless of stats.
 

ABCD

Hall of Fame
Would you also say Djokovic was playing better in 2005 than in 2011? The field got weaker, and he was able to have more success?
If Djokovic says that he played better in 2005 than in 2011, then that is the case. I heard him saying that he plays in 2015 better than ever and for me this is more than enough. Who am I to tell him when was his best? As I said for myself, I am now better than ever in my field, but my results are weaker than 15 years ago; field changed. It is like Carl Lewis was world champion with 10.00 in 1983; if he would run today 9.97 he would be better than ever, but that would be enough for 3-5th place.
 
1993: Sampras HC: 91/28 121 USO
1995: Agassi HC: 88/36 124 AO
1996:Chang HC: 83/38 121 no HC slam ***
1999: Agassi HC: 90/36 126 USO
2003: Agassi HC: 86/36 122 AO
2004: Federer HC 92/29 121 AO and USO
Hewitt HC: 87/33 120 no HC slam ***
2005: Federer HC 91/30 121 USO
2006: Federer HC 91/32 123 AO and USO
2007: Federer HC 91/29 120 AO and USO
2011: Djokovic: HC: 85/41 126 USO and AO
2012: Djokovic HC 89/37 126 AO
2013: Djokovic HC: 89/34 123 AO
2014: Djokovic HC: 89/34 123 no HC slam ***
2015 Federer: HC: 94/31 125 ?
Djokovic: HC: 88/33 121 AO and ?

Stats start from 1991, so this is the 24th year. In 14 of the last 24 years someone won 60% or more of all games on HC in a season. There have only been a three years when a player won more than 120 (0%) and did not win a HC slam. Chang in 1996, Hewitt in 2004, and Novak in 2014.

If Fed does not win the USO, he will be the 4th, and no one over the last 24 years will go without a HC slam with a game winning record as high as 125 (62.5). That stat is from before the USO, so he has actually increased that winning percentage.

I still have to give Novak the edge, if it does come to a Fedovic final, but this is definitely Fed's best chance in several years.

Interesting!
 
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