falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Here are the cumulative stats for Murray vs. Milos for the tournament. Here is my thread for the other semifinal. Main insights:
1. Murray has been more dominant overall.
2. Competition level was comparable. Opponents' had similiar average rank (36 vs. 29) and similiar levels on hard courts in the last year. (65% vs. 69% winning). Perhaps you could argue Raonic had slightly better opponents.
3. Raonic better on serve. No surprise at all.
4. Murray has been better on return. Again no surprise.
5. Raonic has expended less energy. They've been on court for exactly same amount of time. But Raonic runs a lot less per point, so has expended less energy than Murray. Doubt this will make a difference, given Murray's fitness.
6. Raonic has had a more aggressive, cleaner game. No surprise here.
1. Murray has been more dominant overall.
- At the level of points both men are about the same. They've both won about 56-57% of points played, and their dominance ratios (which I explained in the other thread) are practically identical (1.46 vs. 1.48).
- However Murray won a lot more games than Raonic (65% vs 57%). This is because he is ruthless at breaking his opponents' serve (won 42% return games vs. 20%). Whereas Raonic has a smaller advantage at protecting his own serve (94% vs. 88%).
2. Competition level was comparable. Opponents' had similiar average rank (36 vs. 29) and similiar levels on hard courts in the last year. (65% vs. 69% winning). Perhaps you could argue Raonic had slightly better opponents.
3. Raonic better on serve. No surprise at all.
- Raonic wins more points on serve (74% vs. 69%). Interestingly his second serve is further clear of Murray's (+5%) than his first (+4%).
- Also interestingly, Raonic's second serve has been about as good as Djokovic's (59% vs. 61%) and better than Federer's (55%). For most players a second serve is not really a weapon, so it is a reasonable proxy for strength of ground game. However, Raonic almost makes up for the strength of Djokovic's ground game with the brute strength of his second delivery. Today he fired down a 225 km/h second serve, which made the commentators gasp.
- Raonic drops half as many service games as Murray (6% vs. 12%). This is driven by the fact that he faces BP in fewer games (11% vs 26%). Once both players do face BP however, the outcomes are the same. Both of them cough up 1.6 BPs on average, both save about 70% of them, and both end up saving about half the games in which they get BPs.
- Murray has been a lot more clutch saving BPs than Raonic. (+4% compared to his other service points, whereas Raonic was -6%).
4. Murray has been better on return. Again no surprise.
- Murray is better on every return metric - first serve return % (37% vs 30%), second serve return % (63% vs. 50%) and return games won (42% vs. 20%)
- He sees break points in more return games (55% vs 38%). And when he does, his return outcomes are far, far better, (winning 76% of these games vs. 53%).
- Not only does Murray convert more BPs than Raonic (50% vs. 34%), but he has been more clutch doing so. (+4% compared to his other return points, vs. Raonic who was -4%).
5. Raonic has expended less energy. They've been on court for exactly same amount of time. But Raonic runs a lot less per point, so has expended less energy than Murray. Doubt this will make a difference, given Murray's fitness.
6. Raonic has had a more aggressive, cleaner game. No surprise here.
- Raonic has 84 more winners, and a better differential than Murray (+89 vs. +47)
- Raonic ends points faster, as evidenced by the running per point.
- He goes to the net almost 3 times as often (23% vs. 9%) with almost 70% success. Murray, relatively speaking, cherry-picks his way to an excellent 81% success rate at the net.
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