Cumulative stats in AO17- Nadal [9] vs. Dimitrov [15] - SF

[falstaff78]

Here lie the cumulative stats for the second semi.

• Overall performance level very similiar, but Dimitrov's came against substantially worse players. (ave rank 98 vs. 28 and winning rate on hard courts vs. typical pros 57% vs. 68%)
• Both won comparable points on return (41% vs. 42%); but Dimitrov translated his return points into more return games won (30% vs. 26%)
  • he did this by generating break points in more unique games (44% vs. 38%)
  • they both broke roughly the same % of games when having BPs (67% vs. 68%)
• Both won comparable points on serve (72% vs. 70%); but Nadal translated his service points into more service games won (93% vs. 88%)
  • he did this by offering BPs in fewer games (17% vs. 22%)
  • and by getting broken less often when offering BPs (40% of the time vs. 56% of the time)
• Unsurprisingly, Dimitrov more aggressive - coming to the net more often (14% vs. 9%) for similiar returns (73% vs. 72%)
• Shockingly, Dimitrov working harder for his points than Nadal - running 14 meters / point vs. 12 for Nadal; looks like his fitness regime is paying off

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

Excellent stuff, thank you.

 

[Chanwan]

cheers, a couple of surprising stats. Rafa's hold vs. return game at 93-26 looks like Sampras' or Fed's if you don't go further into its details.
Then again, he's played some big servers so that explains it somewhat.

Haven't caught that much of Rafa's matches - how well is he actually serving? As good as of yore or is it his baseline game that's giving him the upperhand behind his serve?

 

[ultradr]

Thanks for collecting these stats.

Nadal's 2nd serve winning % is crucial and looks finally like his hey days after 3 years.

 

[ultradr]

cheers, a couple of surprising stats. Rafa's hold vs. return game at 93-26 looks like Sampras' or Fed's if you don't go further into its details.
Then again, he's played some big servers so that explains it somewhat.

Haven't caught that much of Rafa's matches - how well is he actually serving? As good as of yore or is it his baseline game that's giving him the upperhand behind his serve?

Not as much power/pace as his best form(2013, no?) but control is finally restored after 3 years of poor serving since the back injury of 2014, IMHO.

 

[mule250]

Falstaff always brings the goods! Thanks for all the stats throughout the tournament.

 

[Sysyphus]

Good stuff as usual!

From these stats it would certainly look like Rafa has the clear edge going into this given that he has performed this well against superior opposition. That said, for the Grigor optimist like myself, I'd guess there are some ways that could be skewed as well. I think some of Grigor's opponents performed above what their ranking and recent results would suggest (e.g., Istomin and Chung) whereas some of Rafa's underperformed slightly (e.g., Raobot, who hit a whopping 0 [zero!] Backhand winners in their match). But on the whole it surely still holds true.

Grigor's work-rate is also terribly interesting, and I've seen it come up in some of the analyses throughout the tournament. It shows how Grigor is in some ways not baby Fed at all. Going into the last 8, Greg had the highest work-rate of all, Fed the lowest. It's hard to disentangle entirely what that means. On the one hand, you can look at it as a testament to his fitness, that he's able to pull off such a physical and intense game-style and really make it into a tussle. On the other hand, it tells us that he has extremely little of Fed's unique skill with court geometry and at imposing his game ruthlessly on his opponents, and simply isn't able to employ as economical a style as Fed does.
How will that play out against Rafa? On the one hand, a physical tussle with lots of running is the last thing you'd want to invite Rafa into. He's still more or less the best at dominating that game. You have to dominate points quickly and effectively. On the other hand, it at least tells us Grigor has the requisite physicality to deal with some of the work Rafa will inevitably make him do. I'm unsure at this point if Fed does.

Lastly, on Rafa's serving @Chanwan , for what it's worth I haven't bothered following Nadal much, and the Monfils match was the only one I saw in its entirety. But to me it looks like he's indeed serving much better than he has in a long time. Not bombs or painting the lines, but the crafty effectiveness we know from Rafa: very hard to attack, and so often manages to draw a slightly weaker ball that he can pounce on.

Not too high expectations for Grigor, but eternally the optimist nevertheless. If Zverev could get it to five, this Grigor can one-up that, right? Right?

 

[Chanwan]

Thanks for collecting these stats.

Nadal's 2nd serve winning % is crucial and looks finally like his hey days after 3 years.

64 % is amazing, even for Rafa. Ground game has seemed pretty good too from the sets and highlights I've caught.

 

[ultradr]

64 % is amazing, even for Rafa. Ground game has seemed pretty good too from the sets and highlights I've caught.

I think his avaerage often went into the 70s in some tournaments, as I recall.

He used to be tied with Federer as all time leader in winning % on 2nd serve points.
It is over guys like Isner and the goat servers including Sampras.

Forehands tad weaker than his best form and lacks confidence.
I would say his ground game form is about as good as 2016 spring.
He hasn't made a break-thru beyond that, IMHO.

 

[Chanwan]

I think his avaerage was in the 70s.

He used to be tied with Federer as all time leader in winning % on 2nd serve points.
It is over guys like Isner and the goat servers including Sampras.

I'm afraid you're memory is off on this one. No one (hardly) ever gets above 60 for a year, though Djoko might have done it recently or at least been above that threshold for part of the year.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/2nd-serve-points-won/all/all/all/
Roger and Rafa still ahead all time at 57 %. 64 % is huge given he's already played 2 top-10'ers (albeit not with great return games).

Edit: He was on 60 in his best serving year:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/2nd-serve-points-won/2010/all/all/
Novak hit 60 in both 13 and 15.

 

[ultradr]

I'm afraid you're memory is off on this one. No one (hardly) ever gets above 60 for a year, though Djoko might have done it recently or at least been above that threshold for part of the year.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/2nd-serve-points-won/all/all/all/
Roger and Rafa still ahead all time at 57 %. 64 % is huge given he's already played 2 top-10'ers (albeit not with great return games).

not overall. for certain periods. I corrected above.

 

[Chanwan]

not overall. for certain periods. I corrected above.

I edited above as well - from what I've seen, his forehand has more bit, but he still errs more than when at his best.

As for the 70's, can't imagine we're talking periods here. Of course it happens in some matches, especially against lower ranked opposition, but think you would be hard pressed to find multiple tournaments, where he averaged in the 70's behind his 2nd serve.

 

[bananaforehand]

Interesting stuff..

 

[Chanwan]

I edited above as well - from what I've seen, his forehand has more bit, but he still errs more than when at his best.

As for the 70's, can't imagine we're talking periods here. Of course it happens in some matches, especially against lower ranked opposition, but think you would be hard pressed to find multiple tournaments, where he averaged in the 70's behind his 2nd serve.

@ultradr - see again if you didn't see my last edit ;-)

 

[ultradr]

@ultradr - see again if you didn't see my last edit ;-)

I agree with it. I've seen 70s in very very short span of time.
Maybe US Open 2013, no?
Some clay court tournies, no?

 

[mightyrick]

IMHO, the stats are interesting only from the perspective of seeing them. No conclusions can be drawn from comparisons of those.

To me, the most important comparison to see who is more ready for the other. To do that, I like to look at their draws:

Nadal def. Mayer/Monfils/Zverev/Raonic

Dimitrov def. Chung/Gasquet/Istomin/Goffin

Just from that, I'd say that Nadal has defeated opponents which will have better prepared him for Dimitrov. Playing Zverev and Raonic before Dimitrov is HUGELY beneficial to Nadal. Who has Dimitrov played to prepare him for Nadal? Goffin?

So regardless of what the stats say, Nadal has beaten excellent servers and even won a tiebreak each against Zverev and Raonic. He's beaten guys who all have great groundstrokes. I can't say the same for Dimitrov's draw.

So for this match, I'm picking Nadal. But if the draw was reversed, I'd be picking Dimitrov (in his current form) for sure. But I just don't think Dimitrov has been challenged enough in this tournament.

 

[falstaff78]

Good stuff as usual!

From these stats it would certainly look like Rafa has the clear edge going into this given that he has performed this well against superior opposition. That said, for the Grigor optimist like myself, I'd guess there are some ways that could be skewed as well. I think some of Grigor's opponents performed above what their ranking and recent results would suggest (e.g., Istomin and Chung) whereas some of Rafa's underperformed slightly (e.g., Raobot, who hit a whopping 0 [zero!] Backhand winners in their match). But on the whole it surely still holds true.

Grigor's work-rate is also terribly interesting, and I've seen it come up in some of the analyses throughout the tournament. It shows how Grigor is in some ways not baby Fed at all. Going into the last 8, Greg had the highest work-rate of all, Fed the lowest. It's hard to disentangle entirely what that means. On the one hand, you can look at it as a testament to his fitness, that he's able to pull off such a physical and intense game-style and really make it into a tussle. On the other hand, it tells us that he has extremely little of Fed's unique skill with court geometry and at imposing his game ruthlessly on his opponents, and simply isn't able to employ as economical a style as Fed does.
How will that play out against Rafa? On the one hand, a physical tussle with lots of running is the last thing you'd want to invite Rafa into. He's still more or less the best at dominating that game. You have to dominate points quickly and effectively. On the other hand, it at least tells us Grigor has the requisite physicality to deal with some of the work Rafa will inevitably make him do. I'm unsure at this point if Fed does.

Lastly, on Rafa's serving @Chanwan , for what it's worth I haven't bothered following Nadal much, and the Monfils match was the only one I saw in its entirety. But to me it looks like he's indeed serving much better than he has in a long time. Not bombs or painting the lines, but the crafty effectiveness we know from Rafa: very hard to attack, and so often manages to draw a slightly weaker ball that he can pounce on.

Not too high expectations for Grigor, but eternally the optimist nevertheless. If Zverev could get it to five, this Grigor can one-up that, right? Right?

great poaste!

make me think after tomorrow's semi i will run numbers for final comparing all 6 rounds, but also round 3 onwards.....

 

[falstaff78]

IMHO, the stats are interesting only from the perspective of seeing them. No conclusions can be drawn from comparisons of those.

To me, the most important comparison to see who is more ready for the other. To do that, I like to look at their draws:

Nadal def. Mayer/Monfils/Zverev/Raonic

Dimitrov def. Chung/Gasquet/Istomin/Goffin

Just from that, I'd say that Nadal has defeated opponents which will have better prepared him for Dimitrov. Playing Zverev and Raonic before Dimitrov is HUGELY beneficial to Nadal. Who has Dimitrov played to prepare him for Nadal? Goffin?

So regardless of what the stats say, Nadal has beaten excellent servers and even won a tiebreak each against Zverev and Raonic. He's beaten guys who all have great groundstrokes. I can't say the same for Dimitrov's draw.

So for this match, I'm picking Nadal. But if the draw was reversed, I'd be picking Dimitrov (in his current form) for sure. But I just don't think Dimitrov has been challenged enough in this tournament.

agreed. by the same token fed has taken down two top 5 guys in 5 setters so may have had the best prep of all!

 

[Meles]

Thanks for collecting these stats.

Nadal's 2nd serve winning % is crucial and looks finally like his hey days after 3 years.

Actually far better on both delivery numberz.

 

[ultradr]

Here lie the cumulative stats for the second semi.

• Overall performance level very similiar, but Dimitrov's came against substantially worse players. (ave rank 98 vs. 28 and winning rate on hard courts vs. typical pros 57% vs. 68%)
• Both won comparable points on return (41% vs. 42%); but Dimitrov translated his return points into more return games won (30% vs. 26%)
  • he did this by generating break points in more unique games (44% vs. 38%)
  • they both broke roughly the same % of games when having BPs (67% vs. 68%)
• Both won comparable points on serve (72% vs. 70%); but Nadal translated his service points into more service games won (93% vs. 88%)
  • he did this by offering BPs in fewer games (17% vs. 22%)
  • and by getting broken less often when offering BPs (40% of the time vs. 56% of the time)
• Unsurprisingly, Dimitrov more aggressive - coming to the net more often (14% vs. 9%) for similiar returns (73% vs. 72%)
• Shockingly, Dimitrov working harder for his points than Nadal - running 14 meters / point vs. 12 for Nadal; looks like his fitness regime is paying off

Also interesting stat is the running distance per point.
Public image is that Rafa runs a lot and cover a lot of distance.
I think that image is from marquee matches with Federer(and Djokovic, no?).
But overall, he wins points surprisingly efficeiently.

as I vaguely remembers stats from ATP web site, Rafa's overall running distance per point
always has been surprisingly low. Not as low as Federer's but about average among top 10 (as I vaguely recall).

 

[Meles]

I'm afraid you're memory is off on this one. No one (hardly) ever gets above 60 for a year, though Djoko might have done it recently or at least been above that threshold for part of the year.
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/2nd-serve-points-won/all/all/all/
Roger and Rafa still ahead all time at 57 %. 64 % is huge given he's already played 2 top-10'ers (albeit not with great return games).

Edit: He was on 60 in his best serving year:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/2nd-serve-points-won/2010/all/all/
Novak hit 60 in both 13 and 15.

Rafa had some great stats on return this Fall, but his serve game was famously shown up by Dimitrov (broke Rafa first five games of their match.) Raonic and Zverev could not get over the hump and that's surely pumped up his numbers some. Much of this may be the faster courts making it easier to hold and harder to break serve. I suspect Rafa's ground game is higher than what many are seeing visually; its the faster courts that are keeping him a bit on defensive and unable to do what he did in 2013. A player like Dimitrov is going to put a lot more pressure on Rafa's serve game and make it even harder for Rafa to hit winners. Nadal is a momentum player in slams so this match will really be a showdown despite Greegor's recent advantages over Rafa. I suspect whoever comes through this match will have the advantage over Federer.

 

[Meles]

I agree with it. I've seen 70s in very very short span of time.
Maybe US Open 2013, no?
Some clay court tournies, no?

@Gary Duane has had some numbers on top slam performances and he'll be able to tell us about Rafa's best hard court runs.

 

[kishnabe]

Surprised to see Dimitrov has run more even though he has less hours on court.

 

[Boom-Boom]

Surprised to see Dimitrov has run more even though he has less hours on court.

good training

 

[Chanwan]

Rafa had some great stats on return this Fall, but his serve game was famously shown up by Dimitrov (broke Rafa first five games of their match.) Raonic and Zverev could not get over the hump and that's surely pumped up his numbers some. Much of this may be the faster courts making it easier to hold and harder to break serve. I suspect Rafa's ground game is higher than what many are seeing visually; its the faster courts that are keeping him a bit on defensive and unable to do what he did in 2013. A player like Dimitrov is going to put a lot more pressure on Rafa's serve game and make it even harder for Rafa to hit winners. Nadal is a momentum player in slams so this match will really be a showdown despite Greegor's recent advantages over Rafa. I suspect whoever comes through this match will have the advantage over Federer.

yeah, guess one of the deciding factors will be if Dimi can do what Zverev couldn't. Don't give Dimi the advantage in his first slam final even if he gets past Rafa in style. Unless of course Fed still can't move as fluid and fast as he needs come Sunday

Surprised to see Dimitrov has run more even though he has less hours on court.

good training

Don't forget that 'hours on court' includes the time taken before a serve and between first and second serves and when you slow your opponent down (like vs. Zverev). We don't have stats on number of shots per point, but obviously that could influence it as well

 

[ArcspacE]

Gonna be a lot tighter of a game than many expect, imv

 

[Benben245]

Beijing Quarterfinal 2016, how does the court compare to Laver this year? It does appear relatively quick in the highlights below. If so, it is a good example of how federer could beat nadal if indeed nadal triumphs over dimitrov or conversely it proves an example of how dimitrov can prevail this evening.

 

[Gary Duane]

@Gary Duane has had some numbers on top slam performances and he'll be able to tell us about Rafa's best hard court runs.

@Meles
Nadal's best year ever in terms of returning was probably 2011. He has never won 60% of his games, total, on HCs - in a year. But he got very close in 2013, a bit over 59%, and he serving game was amazing that year, 89% of games. That's his own bar.

2013 was easily his best year on HCs, no surprise.

He gets a bonus for being so strong serving too. With that great serving he probably rates more like 60-61% (a bonus), so that year he was an elite HC player - which should not surprise any of us.

The figures for 2016 are incredibly off, and I have not even bothered to try to correct them yet. I'll probably guesstimate that with TA, but you don't get a good breakdown of serve and return there, a weakness I wish they'd fix.

I don't trust the eye-ball test, so I'd want some figures. I don't think even if he wins the AO he will get anywhere near 60% of games, so we have to wait to see what happens during the year. But I believe he has been serving harder, and I'm sure he his serving more to the forehand (for righties), so he's mixing it up better. A good level for Rafa on HCs for the year would be 28-30% of return games and 84-86% of service games. He has never been an elite HC returner, but his best has been very good. 86/30 would get him to 58% of games, and with that he can do a huge amount of damage if Novak leaves a vacuum.

He has to achieve this with older legs, probably a 1/2 step slower, so he has to get smarter. Moya will be key...

I saw several important signs this week. His energy seems to be up, and he has the old strut back. He doesn't look weak or tired at the end of matches. We'll know more in a few more hours, but I think he could have the same advantage over Dimi that he has had over Fed in this match.

Dimi has never been an elite returner. There was no sign before this year that he was becoming one, so I don't expect that to suddenly change. People mistake the look of his game with Fed's, because it is beautiful, but I don't expect him to beat Nadal tonight.

I'm picking Nadal in 4 or 5, more likely in 4. He looks healthy, and he's going to be rested. I expect him to leave blood on the court tonight if he loses.

 

[Bender]

Gonna be a lot tighter of a game than many expect, imv

You've gotta be deluded to think otherwise tbh.

Dimitrov is an odd mix between various aspects of Federer and Djokovic's games and style. Like Novak, Grigor is flexible and covers the court in a similar style, relying on sliding and footspeed, but lacks precision in his footwork, and is sometimes even clumsy. He has Federer's strokes and sometimes produces faster shots than Federer does, especially on serve, yet is a bit erratic when it comes to maintaining consistent pace and control. Grigor's match-up against Nadal is more like Djokovic than Federer though.

 

[Meles]

@Meles
Nadal's best year ever in terms of returning was probably 2011. He has never won 60% of his games, total, on HCs - in a year. But he got very close in 2013, a bit over 59%, and he serving game was amazing that year, 89% of games. That's his own bar.......

Was talking about for one tournament here which you had numbers on... For this tournament 59.5% on games won and a whopping 93% serve games won.

......A good level for Rafa on HCs for the year would be 28-30% of return games and 84-86% of service games. He has never been an elite HC returner, but his best has been very good. 86/30 would get him to 58% of games, and with that he can do a huge amount of damage if Novak leaves a vacuum....

Not surprisingly Rafa is only 26% on return games, but of course the servebots. Age may be hurting that number. Overall 93/26 is something Sampras might drool over.

When we get to the far more reliable and important points stats, Rafa is 72/41 which is great and right at his career 72/42. This shows with his games numbers that Rafa has been ultra clutch. Something we saw in his 2016 hard court and clay data. Rafa has the ability to bring out his old self and then some on break points. Very clutch.

Overall, a very good statistical bill of health for the old Bull. The problem is Dimitrov is right there with him and particularly strong on return where we all should be skeptical of the giant leap in Rafa's serve game shown in the stats.

 

[ruerooo]

Those fans of Grigor's need some rhythm - they sound drunk

 

[Gary Duane]

Overall, a very good statistical bill of health for the old Bull. The problem is Dimitrov is right there with him and particularly strong on return where we all should be skeptical of the giant leap in Rafa's serve game shown in the stats.

I'm skeptical of stats when the results don't back them up, but I saw faster serving. When Rafa stats hitting spots on the forehand side serving, he serve gets dangerous. I saw some good wide serves to the deuce court as well as some wicked slice serves to the ad court. I frankly can't imagine Grigor playing better outside of the 1st set, where he looked vulnerable.

In my mind that is one of the best matches I've seen in a very long time. I have to pick Nadal to win now. He has a day to rest, and he looks uninjured. This would be a bad year to bet against him on clay.